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BRN Following the current situation we have 2 basic scenarios about oil price: 1. Yellow: USA already started some jawboning about support for their oil industry and etc, and we should not forget that normally such cautious talks are about to "measure" the possible reaction. So we wait here some possible reaction, probably going up till 40 and then falling again to retest the bottom. 2. Green: in this case we don't consider to see any huge up movement, but the slower continuation of going down.
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by EmilShakaryan
2
CRUDE OIL| Multi Year Support|Price BattleEvening Traders, Today’s technical analysis will focus on CRUDE OIL with its biggest gap down ever, breaking a key local resistance that is likely to be tested with an oversold bounce. Points to consider, - Local yearly support breached - Multi-year structural support in confluence with Fibonacci Extension - RSI in oversold territory - Stochastics in lower regions The coming weeks for Crude Oil will be crucial especially in the current economic turmoil. Local support has been breached promptly with a full body candle close setting one of the largest gap opens. Structural support is in confluence with the 1.414 Fibonacci extension, this level was respected by the bulls with a strong wick up. The Stochastics on the other hand is in the lower regions, can stay trading here for an extended period of time, however lots of stored momentum to the upside. Overall in my opinion, CRUDE OIL needs to rebound and close above local resistance. If an S/R flip is confirmed at local resistance, then the likelihood of lower levels increase greatly. What are your thoughts? Please leave a like and comment, And remember, “Sheer will and determination is no substitute for something that actually works.” – Jason Klatt
O
by AzizKhanZamani
Oil Opens Down -25%! More downside?So did look at this chart on the weekly. We had an initial downside move after multiple higher lows and higher highs, and we were expecting a lower high swing to be made. This did not happen for many months. The 61.8 fib held, and just on Friday, we confirmed our first lower high swing because remember, to confirm a swing, we need a new lower low (in a downtrend). Now come Sunday open, the move continued more than I expected and we cut through the first fib zone. Next fib target would be around 21... we should not see that anytime soon, but with this market volatility, anything is possible. So I have spoken before on why OPEC production cuts do not work. Say oil is at 50, and a production cut is agreed on to take oil to 60. If the demand for oil has not changed, an OPEC member has the incentive to cheat on the deal, and produce as many barrels as they were before and sell them at 60 for more profit. Once other members find out about this, they all start producing the same as before and then price goes back to where it was and you are back to where you first began before the production cut. What angered the Saudi's was the fact that if demand remained the same, their market share was taken away. It was taken away by Iran who supplied mostly to China and other Asian nations...the fact they accepted any other currency other than the US Dollar was helpful too...and will also increase their market share when we see the US Dollar move higher. Now, we know there are recession fears. Many nations know that oil will be heading lower. Yes, shale did bring a lot of supply to the market. The US became energy independent, and brought on a lot of supply adding to the supply glut. And yes, bringing oil prices down will impact shale production...but more importantly, it will hurt the banks, who were forced to loan to these oil/shale companies the last time oil fell in order to prevent massive layoffs. They will pay for it now. These are zombie companies, needing more debt just to stay afloat (maybe lower rates will help them out). So, going back to the idea that nations know oil prices will fall due to the looming recession. If you are Russia, or Iran and know this, you want to pump as much as you can now, to make as much money as you can. Media is using the shale production story, which sure might be true. However, I think Saudi Arabia doing the Aramco IPO was a telling sign of this eventually occurring.
TVC:USOIL
by Uncharted-FX
Oil Drops to 4-year LowOil fell to a 4-year low as Saudi Arabia launched a price war on Saturday with the announcement of plans to increase oil output next month, looking to boost total output above 10 million barrels a day. This will be the largest reduction seen in oil price for foreign markets in 20 years. www.bloomberg.com This comes as China, the #1 importer of foreign oil, ended 2019 with a 9.5% yoy increase in demand and a 17th consecutive year of record oil imports which equaled 10.12 million barrels per day in 2019. Chinese oil demand in 2020 has since fallen off due to nationwide quarantines as the impact of the coronavirus continues to take its toll on China’s economy as well as overall global economic activity. www.reuters.com This monthly chart shows oil falling below a 4-year support level(blue dashed line) to a low of $41.28 on Friday, a decline that is expected to continue when global markets reopen tonight. The red lines indicate a potential downtrend channel in play, created by connecting the two upper price peaks and extending a parallel line below from the December 2018 low. The yellow area indicates the level that oil price-per-barrel is expected to reach which would put price back to late 2015-early 2016 levels in the $25-$33/barrel range which equates to a -25% drop from current price. This yellow area stems from a previous level of support/consolidation dating back to the early 2000’s and marked the bottom in oil prices during selloffs seen in 2008/2009 as well as during the 2015 decline. This is expected to hit US shale producers as oil-and-gas companies have more than $200 billion of debt maturing over the next four years, $40 billion of which is due in 2020. www.wsj.com According to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey, average breakeven prices in the U.S. range from $48-$54 per barrel which is well above the current price of $41.28. www.dallasfed.org
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by PrepForProfit
1
NATGAS Can the Saudi's Shale Plan stop the Bears?Natural gas prices slumping nearly 40% over the past year and is showing a retracement in the Asia session. Saudi Aramco has announced that it will be pumping $110 billion over the next couple of years to develop the Jafurah gas field, which is estimated to hold 200 trillion cubic feet of gas. The state-owned company hopes to start natural gas production from Jafurah in 2024 and reach 2.2 Bcf/d of sales gas by 2036 with an associated 425 million cubic feet per day of ethane. The field will produce some 550,000 barrels per day of gas liquids and condensates, around 50% more than current output of just over 1 million bpd. For perspective, Aramco produced 8.9 Bcf/d of natural gas and 1 Bcf/d of ethane in 2018. PIVOT INDICATOR STILL SIGNALLING MORE SHORT TO COME YET.
OANDA:NATGASUSDShort
by CeoCodes
Technical Analysis Update: Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) - SaudSummary • TASI / KSA break out of bull head & shoulders bottom trend reversal pattern. • Indicates continuation of long-term upward sloping trend channel. • Key Fibonacci zone targets marked on enclosed charts. Bullish reversal is indicated as the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) (Saudi Stock Market) breaks out of a head & shoulders bottom reversal pattern at the start of the week. The pattern formed following the completion of a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the near-term downtrend. A continuation of a long-term uptrend channel can be anticipated with an eventual rally back to the top of the channel. Fibonacci retracement and projection levels are marked on the enclosed charts to identify potential near and long-term price targets. Nevertheless, a decisive daily close below the head at 7,396.60 is a failure of the above bullish scenario, while a daily close below the right shoulder at 7,808.54 puts the bullish scenario at risk and requires a new assessment. Investors in US markets can access the iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) ETF for exposure to the Saudi Arabia stock market. An upside breakout in KSA occurred this week as price closed above $30.56 on a daily basis. Support at the bottom of the right shoulder of the head and shoulders bottom reversal is at $28.97, while the bottom of the head is at $28.04. Fibonacci target levels for KSA are noted on the weekly chart below.
TADAWUL:TASILong
by BrucePowersCMT
Getting ready for a difficult week and analyzing key eventsThe previous week for the foreign exchange market was marked by record-low volatility. Even the blackest Friday of the year did not desire to buy or sell actively anything. The informational background of the week was relatively calm. Negotiations between the US and China were moving somewhere, according to the assurances of the parties. But the markets are tired of talks and waiting for actions. And then Trump signed an extremely irritating China law to support Hong Kong protesters. That hypothetically could disrupt the entire negotiation process. In general, so far everything is not that clear, which means potentially unstable. Accordingly, this week we are looking for opportunities for the purchase of safe-haven assets. The points for this are very prospective, in terms of profit/risk per trade. The upcoming week will be interesting. Statistics on the US labour market will be published on Friday, which is expected to lead to strong movements in dollar pairs. Also, OPEC will meet on Thursday, which in theory could provoke an explosion of volatility in the oil market. According to experts, Saudi Arabia may put the question point-blank of non-fulfilment by several members of their obligations under OPEC +. Actually, it is the efforts of the Saudis that keep afloat the conditions for reducing production by 1.2 million barrels. If Saudi Arabia decides that they are done, the oil will fall quickly and violently (see oil dynamics on Friday). In this light, let us recall our recommendation to sell oil as a basic idea for working with oil under current conditions. Another important news that worth noting is the announcement of the Bank of Canada decision on monetary policy parameters, data on Eurozone GDP and US business activity indices. So far, our position on the dollar is unchanged - we are looking for points for its sales. But a series of a confident macroeconomic positive outcome may make us change our position, at least in the short term position. So we will closely follow the news.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
Data from ADP, unstable gold and weak oilThe publication of US employment data from ADP came out yesterday. However, the outcome did not form positions in the markets. The + 135K figure came out almost in line with forecasts (experts expected + 140K), so the markets did not get an answer to the question of what to expect from the NFP figures. Although in general, the vector is unpleasant for the US economy and the US dollar in particular ( a decrease in the number of new jobs and a gradual deterioration in the US labour market). So our position on the dollar today is unchanged - we will continue to look for points for its sales. QAs for the dynamics of gold. Breakdown 1485-1490 gave the asset a sign to go down. The lows in the region of 1460 are in favour of that. But weak data on the US economy on Tuesday turned the situation upside down. Yesterday’s value of 1290 means the return to the bull market and the end of the correction. But since statistics on the US labour market will make the next batch of corrections already on Friday, we refrain from recommendations on gold this week: we will wait until the markets still decide whether to grow or fall. As for the oil. The market-determined the basic drivers: a slowdown in the global economy as a negative factor in demand and production restoration by Saudi Arabia as a positive factor for supply. As a result, sellers continued to dominate, and in the evening also intensified amid information about US oil reserves. According to the Ministry of Energy, weekly stocks rose by 3 million barrels, which is a bearish signal. So today we do not see any special reasons for the growth. But on Friday may well be adjustments. So on Thursday, we will continue to look for points for oil sales, but exclusively on the intraday basis. Although we note that oil prices have almost reached the calculated points for the current decline, announced by us on Monday. As for China and Germany, we do not expect anything special today. Tomorrow we are waiting for statistics on the US labour market, there is every reason to expect a relatively calm day, during which the markets will prepare for NFP data to realize. So today you can try to concentrate on active oscillatory intraday trading. For example, use clock oscillators and sell from the local overbought area and buy from the local oversold area. That is, to work without any obvious preferences.
FX:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
Bet against oil this week after surprise crude inventory buildThere's lots of bad news for crude oil prices right now. Yesterday, OilPrice.com reported that "the American Petroleum Institute (API) has estimated a large crude oil inventory draw of 5.92 million barrels for the week ending September 26—a surprise compared to analyst expectations of a 1.567-million-barrel build." This morning, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) confirmed the finding of a surprise inventory build, although the EIA's number is a little lower: "U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.1 million barrels from the previous week." This surprise inventory build comes despite significant efforts on the part of oil companies to scale back both imports and production, both of which were down week-over-week. There's more bearish news for oil prices, too. Saudi Arabia is reporting its oil fields back at full production, and the US is exploring non-violent solutions to the Iran crisis, including sanctions and peace talks. Both those developments, while good for the world, are bad for oil prices. I've purchased some of the DRIP fund to profit from further declines in oil prices this week. For more news and educational ideas, subscribe to my new YouTube channel for beginner investors, "Wall Street Petting Zoo"!
AMEX:DRIPLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
3
Johnson's resignation, "Japanese disease" & oil The US dollar value is growing in the foreign exchange market. Although we do not agree with the current dollar state, however that what is happening. We are conscious of the futility of trying to go against the market will, but the sensation of the illogical nature of what is happening and the current dollar value still does not pass. So today we will continue to sell the dollar. Recall that partly the strength of the dollar is in the weakness of opponents. Yesterday, for example, weak data on the leading Eurozone economy came out. Germany now not only has negative economic growth, but also a decline in inflation. And this is already a completely bad signal. Something similar was observed in Japan in the 90s (“the lost decade”) and was called “Japanese disease”. So it seems like Germany has caught the same virus. This is also supported by the fact that leading economic institutions are going to lower forecast for 2019. In this light we sell EURUSD. This week, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson may well get his vote of no confidence, and Britain will finally plunge into the abyss of political chaos. Which, will quickly turn into economic chaos. At least yesterday's data on UK GDP (the indicator fell by 0.2% in the second quarter) shows that, as do polls by British companies that are rapidly losing faith in the country's economic prospects. In general, the pound also has reasons to decline. But on the other hand, do not forget about the rule that has been developed recently: "Johnson’s weakness is pound’s strength." buying in the area of 1.2290 and selling with 1.2350. In both cases, we set the small stops. There was an increase in sellers in the oil market yesterday. In this case, everything happened according to our forecasts and expectations. As a reason for oil sales, there were conciliatory statements from the country of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia in which he stated that "A bad peace is better than a good quarrel." That is, he confirmed the information that the Kingdom does not want the conflict to escalate. As a result, the third quarter was the worst for oil in 2019 (prices fell by almost 9%). Our recommendation for oil is unchanged so far - we sell oil. Sales target - bottoms $ 51 (brand WTI). Precisely because of the peace-loving crown prince, gold yesterday went below 1485. For us, this is a kind of watershed. While gold is below this mark, in our opinion, bears control the market situation. And this means that today we will sell gold with stops above 1285.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Trade24Fx
Euro and pound weakness, dollar strength and US crisisThe political scandal in the United States and Trump's coming impeachment proceedings. So the US stock market was falling against this background, the dollar was striving for multi-year highs. Such behaviour could be explained by the weakness of competitors. The euro, for example, received a number of painful hits both from the weak data on the Eurozone (consumer confidence fell to the lowest levels since 2015) and Germany (according to experts at the DIW Institute, Germany's economy is heading into recession), and from the ECB’s chief economist announced the possibility of a further rate cut by the Central Bank. The British pound also suffered losses in the foreign exchange market. The main reason is Brexit, or rather, the lack of progress in the negotiation process between Britain and the EU, as well as a statement by Bank of England representative that the Central Bank could reduce its interest rate even if it would be possible to avoid Britain's exit from the EU without a deal. Despite the existence of reasons to dollar strengthen, we still consider it anomalous (in the end, the Fed has already lowered the rate twice this year and most likely will do it one more time). Therefore, this week we will continue to look for points for its sales. However, there is no need to look for for a long time - the current dollar prices are close to ideal sales points. Given the global vector of monetary easing by the Central Banks gold as an object of interest is strengthening. So this week we will continue to look for points of asset purchase. While gold is above 1485, we see no threats to its purchases. Last week, selles trend was dominating on the oil market. The main reason was information on Saudi Arabia return oil production to its previous level. Data on oil reserves in the United States (reserves rose), as well as updated IEA forecasts, showing a slowdown in the growth of demand for oil in the world. In this light, our recommendation to sell oil this week remains relevant. Remember oil might be corrected any time, that means that small stops must be placed with every open position in oil. With regard to macroeconomic statistics, attention should be paid primarily to statistics on the US labour market (traditionally it is published on Friday), the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday (expected to reduce rates by 0.25%), UK GDP on Monday as well as consumer inflation in the Eurozone and US business activity indices.
INDEX:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
Impeachment inquiry against Donald Trump, Sino & Johnson resignStatement by US President Donald Trump that the agreement with China could be concluded “earlier than you think.” let to the volatility on the financial markets as well as gold. Considering that in the last six months there has been more than enough speculation on the topic of negotiations between the US and China, we have not rushed to draw conclusions and work not with rumours, but with facts. The facts are no specifics will appear before October. So lower gold value yesterday is a great opportunity to buy it today. But, of course, we do not forget to set up relatively “hard” stops for purchases and watch the news. British Pounds lost a half and a hundred points to the US Dollar. The reason was the growth of uncertainty around Brexit, a potential domestic political crisis and the general confusion of the country's politics. The fact is that after the Parliament, according to the decision of the Supreme Court, returned to work (3 weeks ahead of schedule), Johnson's chances of resolving the situation with Brexit until October 31 sharply decreased. And the British opposition, meanwhile, is waiting for the moment to strike ( a vote of no confidence in Johnson and his resignation). The most successful moment for the attack will be on October 17 at the end of the EU summit. If it becomes clear that there is no agreement between the EU and Great Britain, Johnson will receive his vote on a vote of confidence. So, why the pound is falling is clear - Britain is sinking deeper into the chaos of uncertainty. For our part, we will continue to buy the pound, as current events practically negate the option of “hard” Brexit. Another scenario is the next postponement of Brexit, a new referendum, new elections, etc. - Which is a positive sign the pound (in the context of Brexit). If the pound reacted with dropping against the backdrop of political news yesterday, the dollar was growing. The scandal surrounding Trump's telephone conversation with Zelensky is intensifying. Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the House would begin formal impeachment proceedings against President Trump. Against such a background, recommending buying a dollar would be strange. So we will continue to look for points for the dollar sale. Another important news for the dollar will be the publication of statistics on US GDP for the second quarter. But we draw the attention of our readers that this is the final reading. Accordingly, the probability of any surprises is small. That is, support for the dollar should not be expected. But a revision even insignificant in the direction of reduction may be the last drop that will overfill the markets patience. In the oil market, everything is developing accordance with our forecasts a decline in oil. Saudi Arabia will return to its usual volumes production ahead of schedule. At the moment, production has already reached 11.3 million bpd (a week ahead of schedule). So the incident with a drone attack and a sharp drop in oil supply is over. The price of oil, as we predicted a week ago, returned to levels before the drone attack. As for the future, the accumulated inertia may well be enough to reduce oil. So our position has reached its planned goal, as a whole remains unchanged - we give preference to oil sales. But now you need to do this more carefully. Especially in light of the news that Saudi Aramco plans to go public IPO next month. That is, attempts at price manipulations in the oil market shortly are more than likely.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
The weakness of Eurozone, the mercy of Iran and demarche of SinoSome cases are still unresolved also news that the Chinese delegation has cancelled a planned visit to American farms only exacerbates. So yesterday's gold growth was more than logical against the backdrop of fears of the failure of negotiations on trade wars. Our position on gold is unchanged - we continue to look for points for asset purchases. This is happening against the background of a decrease in oil quotes. Moreover, there was an additional reason for bears. The decision of the Iranian authorities to release the British tanker Stena Impero. Formally, this is a signal of the tension decrease in the region. However, you should not rely on peace in the Middle East. The situation continues to be unstable, especially after the United States decided to send the military to help Saudi Arabia. However, our recommendation to sell oil remains relevant. In our opinion, the factors in favour of asset sales outweigh the arguments in favour of purchases. Among the main arguments the restoration of oil production by Saudi Arabia, fears of a decrease in demand on the oil market amid a deterioration in the global economy and the offshore revolution in the United States. Euro update. PMI indices in the whole Eurozone, as well as its key economies - Germany and France - came out distressing. Production indices everywhere dropped below 50, falling below the most pessimistic forecasts. For example, the PMI in the manufacturing sector in Germany in September reached 41.4 with a forecast 44.0 (by the way, the rate of decline in Germany's economic indicators is the highest over the past 10 years). That is, economic activity is deteriorating rapidly. Although the PMI in the Eurozone as a whole is still above 50, judging by the current dynamics, it will soon go below this mark. Yes, and the current value of 50.4 is the lowest mark for the last 4 years. Recall that we recommend selling the euro primarily against the Japanese yen, as well as the British pound. Even against the dollar, for all our disbelief in it, we are more likely to sell euros than buy. Moreover, the data on PMI indices in the USA yesterday came out not only above 50, but also better than forecasts. Once again, we point on excellent opportunities for Russian ruble sales.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Long the Iran Saudi warTensions are climbing in the middle east and they are climbing fast. Accusations have been made and whether or not they were responsible for the attack, there is a giant target on Iran right now. With all the crap going on in the world, Deteriorating middle east is not far fetched. I sure hope it does not happen but it's looking inevitable. A conflict of this scope would seend oil prices soaring. Might as well take advantage of it. Some good oil stocks to look at such as VET, CJ , CPG, MEG, etc (bold tickers for good dividends)
FX:USOILLong
by MysteriousPersian
Preparing for Fed verdict, analyzing the state of the oil marketThe attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure led to the biggest jump in global prices. The correction was not observed until the American session started. We recommended on Tuesday to open short positions in oil because we were confident in the corrective movement and the end, the recommendation justified itself at 100%. In just 10 minutes, oil lost over 4%. The reason for the decline was the information that Saudi Arabia has officially confirmed - production capacity will be restored by the end of September. And to compensate for losses in production associated with the attack, the Saudis will increase production up to 12 million bpd by the end of October. So those of our readers who trust our experience and analytics should have made good money. As for trading on the oil market today, then after the strongest fall yesterday, everything looks rather ambiguous. And although we continue to incline toward asset sales you should be careful with that. As for the Fed and the Open Market Committee. An event that was devoid of intrigue just a couple of weeks ago (100% of traders set a minimum rate reduction of 0.25) may surprise. The current probability of a Fed rate cut is slightly above 60%. And if you take into account that yesterday's data on industrial production in the USA were frankly surprising: 0.6% m / m with a forecast of + 0.2% m / m and July outcome -0.1% m / m, the Fed can keep the rate unchanged. Our position remains unchanged. We expect the rate to be lowered by 0.25%. There are enough reasons for this: an interest rate reduction by ECB rate last week, a deterioration of the US labor market and the US economy condition as a whole, threat of a global recession and intensified trade war, multiplied by the risk of a US military campaign in Iran - all of this obliges the Fed to act and reduce the interest rate to prevent the US economy downfall. Anyway, reinsurance is better than solve the consequences duo to the lack of action. Accordingly, our position on the dollar today is also unchanged - we will sell it. At the same time, we do not forget the euro and its movement after the ECB meeting last week. The probability of false movements is great and it is extremely important to follow a predetermined plan. But at the same time, it is worthwhile to put stops so as not to go against the market will. In addition to the decision of the Fed and the subsequent explosion of volatility in the foreign exchange market, it is worth paying attention to inflation data from the UK and Canada. As for the UK. Despite Johnson's unsuccessful meeting in Luxembourg, the pound did not react that much. This means that we will continue to look for an opportunity to buy the British pound. First of all, against the euro and the US dollar. The tactics of buying gold in the area of local lows continue to be justified, so we will continue to adhere to it today.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx