BRENT CRUDE OIL (UKOIL) (BCO/USD) 4-HOUR TIMEFRAME LONGThe price of brent crude oil (UKOIL) seems to be moving in an uptrend of late. This is because Saudi Arabia decided to take matters into their own hands and cut production, forcing the market to drive prices up (basic economics of supply and demand!). This is also coming at a time when the whole world seems to have forgotten about the bear attack on oil last year and the Kashoggi murder. But let's focus on the now.
In order to enter a short, traders can wait for a retracement to the 68.46, which represents a previous support/resistance level. If you have been living in a cage, then you probably should know that OPEC stands for the Oil and Petroleum Exporting Countries, and they are the cartel controlling crude oil prices and supply. In the centre of this cartel is Saudi Arabia, which is the largest producer of oil worldwide. Muhammad Bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia hopes to raise prices of oil for the benefit of his kingdom whilst he comes under constant pressure from westerners like who believe oil should be sold for peanuts in order for them to continue using their dinosaur fuel-guzzling Chevys and Ford trucks without feeling the wallet crunch. Guess who is at the centre of the "oil prices must fall movement"? Yes, you got it right, none other than Donny Trump!
Saudiarabia
$TASI Don't Sleep on Saudi ArabiaOne market that has quietly, but powerfully, performed well for 2019 year-to-date has been Saudia Arabia's Tadawul All Shares Index , up 13.82% as of April 3rd 2018.
On a macro level, the country has been buoyed by a resurgence in the price of oil , coupled with the "Risk On" feel supporting the markets since January 2019.
More interestingly, on a domestic level, the country has been support by global index makers, such as MSCI , promoting Saudi Arabian shares for inclusion into global benchmark indices, such as the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. This has been a boon for Saudia Arabian stocks, as Saudi shares have received billions in fund flows from global investors, and great exposure to global investors as this asset class opens up further.
Lastly, on a technical basis, the market technicals for Saudi shares are quite strong, with the price being supported by the 10-day EMA since December 2018. Furthermore, the Smart Money Index for the $TASI has risen steadily since January 2019, indicating strong flows into Saudia Arabian stocks.
We believe that this trend will continue for 2019 and recommend investors to have exposure to have exposure to Saudia Arabia. For investors who are interested in profiting from this trend, the ETF $KSA provides a great opportunity for investors.
$KSA Don't Sleep on Saudi ArabiaOne market that has quietly, but powerfully, performed well for 2019 year-to-date has been Saudia Arabia's Tadawul All Shares Index, up 13.82% as of April 3rd 2018.
On a macro level, the country has been buoyed by a resurgence in the price of oil, coupled with the "Risk On" feel supporting the markets since January 2019.
More interestingly, on a domestic level, the country has been support by global index makers, such as MSCI, promoting Saudi Arabian shares for inclusion into global benchmark indices, such as the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. This has been a boon for Saudia Arabian stocks, as Saudi shares have received billions in fund flows from global investors, and great exposure to global investors as this asset class opens up further.
Lastly, on a technical basis, the market technicals for Saudi shares ($KSA as a proxy) are quite strong, with the price being supported by the 10-day EMA since December 2018. Furthermore, the Smart Money Index for the $KSA has risen steadily since January 2019, indicating strong flows into Saudia Arabian stocks.
We believe that this trend will continue for 2019 and recommend investors to have exposure to have exposure to Saudia Arabia. For investors who are interested in profiting from this trend, the ETF $KSA provides a great opportunity for investors.
USOIL on path to 58.50 before falling towards 50. Pending short?Technical analysis uncovers path that may bring a lot of possibilities of trading, but also a lot of risk, stay close to the news and comments about USOIL, and also monitor the development of the pattern in the following days and weeks.
Time-frame: one month.
Resistance: 58.52
Support: 48.90
Trading setup scenario:
After price reaches 58.52 we short it on a daily close below it. Target 51.20, and 49.
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Risk Warning: Trading on the Financial Markets, Stock Exchange and all its asset derivatives is highly speculative and may not be suitable for all investors.
Only invest with money you can afford to lose and ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Supplied information is not an advice.
Oil is gonna make a run for itOil climbed, and broke through the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders pattern that has been in play for the past few months. The growth was due to supply cuts and reduced output from OPEC countries. Russia has also agreed to participate in the cutbacks. Saudia Arabia will be repairing a damaged offshore field, and this will decrease supply and increase the price of oil in the week to come. In total oil rose 4.2% the past week. Gains are being stifled by a few factors as well. US inventories are rising, the global slowdown is decreasing demand, and US output is at a record high. To counterbalance this Chinese imports of oil are rising by about 4.8% each quarter for the past three quarters.
Starting on the week of February 18th China-US trade talks will continue in Washington as the leaders of both nations will sit down to reach an agreement before March 1st. Also the US may put sanctions on Venezuelan exports and further decrease world supply.
So long as WTI stays above 54.00 we see a bullish play in motion. If and when oil breaks through the Fibonacci resistance level of 38.2% at the price of 55.63 we will see the biggest spike up. The next level of resistance is the 200-EMA. The first strong target of the bullish movement is 57.34 and the next target is 59.00.
USOIL Long - Reversal from 9-Month Supply ZoneThe oil price has fallen for a straight 10 consecutive trading days.
A reversal structure has appeared as the price rebounded off from a 9-month supply zone, as well as the bottom of a 1-month falling channel.
Saudi Arabia is also going to cut its oil production by half in order to prevent the oil price from depreciating further.
TUPRS Short idea. Make gains on your crypto playing real marketsThis is setting up for a nice short play. We have learned to play these markets by playing crypto and while nothing is happening with that at the moment we can play real markets such as forex, stocks and indices. These things move every weekday. Tuprs is a Petrol company, they buy oil and make products such as oil for your car, gas for heating and petrol. Looking at the chart on a big timeframe you can see divergence. This says we are due a correction. Just going by the chart. Now you look at new and I don't care too much about that but you see that Saudi journalist that got killed in Turkey. They are starting a row with Saudi and where does most of the worlds oil come from? All it takes is for them to get pissed with all the bad attention going there way, raise prices by slowing production and make companies like these prices rise/profits fall.
A 25$ drop with margin? Yes please!
Looking at lower times to get a short. My short from $133 was stopped out yesterday but it has not discouraged me. I will look to go again. From $135 to $140 with a stop of $145.
So if you are a crypto holder, ETH, BTC or DASH you can make some gains while not worrying about the crypto market by playing real markets like this one. So if you change your margin to 100x you can get 10/1 on this which I think is safe, you can go 500/1 which would be 50/1 on this but lets not be greedy. This is what I think will happen over the coming weeks. Just by the chart pattern the news will come to fit this, its just how it is.
Look for it to pull back in a bear flag pattern and sell at either the top or when it breaks the bottom of it.
You can play this and many other things at simplefx.com (my referral link) you can deposit it crypto. If you do a search of them you will see some SCAM alert things about them from the BCH moon last year. But you wont find anything about the other products. So don't use these for crypto you have others for that but they are okay for real markets.
So I say again, if you are a hodler, forget crypto while its doing nothing and start branching out. You have been learning the last year or so, start putting that knowledge to work where others are not thinking about.
APPL too all heading for falls. These work the same as crypto, you can profit off of these things where the news and things will have you think you need a finance college degree to understand this stuff. Its just chart patterns and trends like crypto. And this product is heading for a correction. The news will come to fit the pattern, its how it works.
Iran & Attractive Buying Territory in OilPlenty of noise in the street today ... giving large hands another opportunity to shake out shorts and offering those sharp enough cheap entries ahead of Trump confirming the US to leave the Iran deal (just over an hour from now).
=> We have posted in detail about the flows into BTC and Gold with Iran (see attached) as risk enters into the picture one more time from the political side.
=> Expecting a sharp and short lived knee jerk reaction on the confirmation, followed by a slow grind higher into the $72 handle completing our second and final target.
=> US foreign policy is threatening the future of the global economy, things are starting to look dark ahead .
=> Simple stuff from a technical perspective, we are buying the bottom of the channel with targets towards the highs. This will be the final clearing leg for all of our longer-term positioned longs as we expect exhaustion to start coming in from bulls due to the continual increases from the supply side making anything higher without a fully escalated war harder to justify.
GL
XRP reached the moon. Brace for impact though, sun is up next!Nobody in cryptoland is making more progress than Ripple.
It's a winner, and I am keeping it locked away for major targets ahead.
Fundamental
Most of you following me came from the previous idea I had on XRP.
It almost turned out perfectly, and achieved major gains. We have now crashed, and I am looking at the road ahead for XRP.
A road which I am looking at with great enthusiasm. A road that can quickly lead to greatness :)
So what's the latest?
First, I'll do a quick summary of why I believe Ripple is a company to bet on in the first place.
Market penetration, top level partnerships and unfortunatly; the most likely path to success.
When it comes to cryptocurrency, you have two main camps. Decentralized & Centralized.
Most want to change our very broken financial system, while a couple (Ripple being the king) wants to work with the powerful financial institutions to bring better technology into the business.
Now.. I came into this cryptoworld mainly because of the politcal aspects surrounding Bitcoin. I would like to see the corrupt banks go, power back to the people. A rebranding of our economic model sort to speak.
However, if you want to achieve success as an investor, you gotta look at things from a pure, logical and maybe somewhat cynical perspective.
Ripple is a winner, I'll actually go as far as to call it an obvious winner.
Our beloved market got a heavy start on 2018. Much of it was natural correction, but it was the regulation fear that got us bloody.
Ripple loves regulation. They have the connections, they have the product that the elites of the world wants.
Suddenly we get a reality where coins like Bitcoin is hard to obtain (or atleast use) , while XRP becomes a cakewalk.
To summarize I would just point to this screenshot from a JP Morgan crypto presentation.
"Ripple is already bringing change in the industry"
The Latest:
In recent times, Ripple has been making waves.
Yesterday we learned that Saudi Arabia's Central Bank has signed an agreement to use Ripple's Xcurrent in helping banks in the KSA improve their payments infrastructure.
(xCurrent does not rely on XRP, the currency)
We also learned something I find much more substantial, namely Western Unions decision to trial Ripple's cross border payment platform xRapid.
Good read from Yahoo , with the Western Union news and explanation of the difference between xRapid & xCurrent.
On January 11, Moneygram was also announced to be using xRapid (That's the one using XRP). We are seeing more deals being made that directly helps XRP's value, which is fantastic.
Lastly, I would also like to include this bit from SBI Hodlings. Which I believe is a major positive!
SBI Virtual Currencies to Exclusively List XRP at Launch
SBI Holdings is the leading financial service company in Japan. Their subsidiary, SBI Securities, is Japan’s largest online securities company with more than 4 million brokerage accounts.
Technical
We reached the moon at the 4.618 exentions from first week run.
Back to reality, and now I believe the fundamentals are in place for a run to the sun!
Looking at 4.618 from entire december run for a final target. I'll use my pitchfork to find support/resistance (tutorial in my profile) .
I will also keep updating this with more short term TA.
Oil continues higherOil should continue its bull run higher after a short correction. Saudi's seem to be finally getting their act together, and with power consolidation, should be able to limit supply enough to continue this rebound in prices this year. Fed's higher interest rates should dampen the response from debt-laden shale producers. These should set up for long-term higher oil.
Oil: Potential bullish scenarioI think there is a fair chance that oil breaks out, maybe due to fears of war in the Middle East? Maybe due to OPEC extending production cuts, or maybe a bit of both, paired with Trump's comments of wanting a weaker dollar. I think energy positions are a good hold, and even a good chance to add to many, like $OXY, $PBR, $MPC, $PBF, to name a few.
Keep an eye out for the breakout here, if it's confirmed, $XLE will shine surely.
This would play nicely with Saudi Arabia's Aramco IPO as well, which makes a lot of sense to me.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
USOIL: Short term updateUSOIL has filled our limit buys to take a short term long position, while we hold our weekly buys, and the add on we took recently. We have a validation target that needs to be hit within the next 2 days now.
Tomorrow and until Friday, we have very data and news heavy days, so we can expect a sizeable move here, maybe even a make or break moment for this uptrend. If we respect the validation target, we can safely hold longs, if not we'll have to study price action closely, since we might embark in a correction in oil's uptrend.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
As #OPEC Meets, #Crude May Feel DisappointedTomorrow, members of OPEC will meet in Vienna, and it is unlikely there will be any policy shifts. Despite the dire straits some OPEC members are in, such as Venezuela, the current crude production policy will likely remain until Iran and Russia agree to some sort of production resolution.
MacroView has been overly bearish since June 2014 but indicating that the one key dynamic factor in crude prices would be supply (same goes for Brent and OPEC). Essentially, West Texas Intermediate would continue to see woes until there were meaningful cutbacks in crude production, which finally began to filter through on a combination of record-low rig counts and bankruptcies (yes, bankruptcies are bullish). Crude output levels in the U.S. are at levels last seen during the second-half of 2014.
West Texas Intermediate has been trading within the current supply range between $48/50 for the last 12 trading sessions, and price action is currently treating the current trend support on narrowing price action. If OPEC disappoints tomorrow, and break through trend would cause traders to seek out support near $42, while a confirmed breakout of the supply zone could trigger buying to $55.
The weekly chart picture for crude:
OPEC's production has largely offset declines seen by U.S. shale producers, and members will continue to press on. Iran has said they look to achieve 2.2 Mbbl/day to compete with Saudi for market share; Iraq and Kuwait both look to increase their production meaningfully. Non-OPEC member Russia continues to keep oil production at post-Soviet highs.
Side note: expect volatility in commodities currencies on headline risk. The Canadian dollar has pulled back after gaining 18 percent on crude's rally, but it remains vulnerable.
For more information on MacroView's products, or general questions and comments, feel free to message us.
Also, readers are encouraged to post their thoughts and charts!
Oil to go higher. Part 1This is part one (1) of two analyses. This is
of course on daily basis. You should pay
attention to the number 2 on indicator and
on graph. The price where took a lower low
but MACD took a higher low. A positive divergens.
What to expect? Saudi Arabia will only free oil
production if Iran joins. This fundamental news
puts pressure on oil. It is likely we will see
a rebound on prices of 32-33 USD/per barrel.
cup is empty... caffeine is wearing off.Back in the days of swing ... this was an inverted cup and handle. It was not a bullish sign.
Today our computers can back check our our predictions, Algos, and ATMs. As they give us micro second opportunities. If my trading action happened at the speed of humming bird wings, my heart would explode.
If you play against the herd, stay short into the weekend. But the safe bet would be long or cash. It is more likely any news (true or not) this weekend, will be to promote a oil bottom. Not likely any weekend news will push price down. But any rumor can push it up.
It's the weekend.. I remain short oil..
When predicting micro moves, remember the tide matters... Saudi Arabia controls the price of oil. Once you understand that, all technicals need to include variables for real world political manipulation of the worlds most important commodity. .... "Church of Krümel"
Back in the day, there was a King, he turned off the blood supply to the industrial world. The world went into chaos, wars started... wars stopped. In the end the world found that one country... No, one man controls the affordable supply of the earths most important commodity .
Agree or not with anyone's politics, technical reads, or overall forecasts... My approach is to start with the above in mind.
Until we have a new king or new war, I see no reason to buy oil. Micro channel guys will laugh.. So much money to be made in the foam. This is true, though they may spend more time stressed that their finger is faster than a sword. I just invite those to know there are other ways to skin this cat.. Ways that allow for thought and time to walk outside. Charting has been around a long time. The tools are better.. but not always the results..
Will Putin look like Chavez? Oil can change the world.Way too many people don't remember the 70s. Yea, yea Das Krümel is OG. We have seen embargos, wars, and the collapse of empires. While others have risen to rule.
How would I remove my opponents from the game, if I controlled the the price of Item needed to both survive... or play the game? The Saudis can dump enough oil to bankrupt Putin. At the same time they keep their opponents in the region from growing into larger problems. Also lets not forget if I control the flow, I can hedge at will.
Russia: needs to be broken, again (Reagan did this in the 80s by getting into weapons spending war) Hurt US but killed USSR.
Iran: must find its place at the table.. SA's table.
Regional Conflicts must be starved-out... or turned into glass!!
Unless I see new clouds of war, or death of a King, I will remain short.
OPEC crude production climbed in January to the highest level in Bloomberg data going back 20 years....
www.houmatoday.com
Saudi has no love or trust with Russia.
gulfnews.com
USOIL IDEAOil broke the bearish channel forming a new low around 27.50 $ after that it bounced hard and it's approaching to the channel support now resistance without any FA on it's favour.
We could see a perfect pullback to it or a break upside to recover the bearish channel.
Anyway nothing here changes the trend.
Happy Trading