“Accumulation, Breakout, Repeat: SBSW’s Time Again?” SBSW | Weekly Chart Analysis
4-Year Cycle | Smart Money Levels | Precious Metals Macro Tailwind
This chart paints a clear picture — Sibanye-Stillwater (SBSW) has followed a reliable 4-year accumulation-to-expansion cycle:
🔹 2015–2016
🔹 2019–2021
🔹 Now shaping up for 2025–2026
Each rally kicked off after institutional accumulation around the $3 level, and once again, we’re seeing the same behavior. History doesn’t just rhyme — it repeats.
🧠 Smart Money Moves
Every major cycle began after price based out near the $3 level. That’s exactly what we’ve just seen — accumulation, basing, and now lift-off. We’ve entered a familiar pattern — the same smart money footprints showing up again.
📊 Technical Breakdown
This is the weekly chart, and we’re now testing the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level (7.39) drawn from the 2020 high to the recent low.
✅ A weekly close above this level + structure building could confirm the beginning of a long-term leg higher.
📈 Volume Flow Indicator has crossed above the midline for the first time in years, suggesting that real buying pressure is back. That’s a shift in momentum worth noting.
🎯 Key Areas of Interest:
• $10.00 – Volume node + prior S/R
• $12.00 – Fib midpoint + prior pivot
• $14.90 – Confluence zone
These are zones where I’ll be watching for continuation, reaction, or reversal.
🌎 Macro Tailwind: Precious Metals Demand
Platinum and palladium are gaining renewed attention as demand increases in EVs, clean energy, and industrial sectors. SBSW — with its deep exposure to both metals — is positioned as a long-term beneficiary if this trend continues.
Add to that the recent global instability and de-dollarization chatter, and you’ve got a macro backdrop favoring real assets over paper. Precious metals are catching a bid — and SBSW could ride that wave.
🧠 My Position
Started buying $4.00 calls and recently rolled to $5.50s. I’m letting this one develop over time — watching for confirmation and continuation.
(Not financial advice — just sharing my perspective as always.)
🕰️ Cycles matter.
📚 History teaches.
💰 Smart money accumulates before the breakout.
This setup has all the hallmarks of a repeat cycle in progress. I’m locked in.
—
📍 Long-term chartwork, weekly timeframe. Zoom out to see the rhythm.
SBSW | Weekly Chart Analysis
4-Year Cycle | Smart Money Levels | Precious Metals Macro Tailwind
This chart paints a clear picture — Sibanye-Stillwater (SBSW) has followed a reliable 4-year accumulation-to-expansion cycle:
🔹 2015–2016
🔹 2019–2021
🔹 Now shaping up for 2025–2026
Each rally kicked off after institutional accumulation around the $3 level, and once again, we’re seeing the same behavior. History doesn’t just rhyme — it repeats.
🧠 Smart Money Moves
Every major cycle began after price based out near the $3 level. That’s exactly what we’ve just seen — accumulation, basing, and now lift-off. We’ve entered a familiar pattern — the same smart money footprints showing up again.
📊 Technical Breakdown
This is the weekly chart, and we’re now testing the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level (7.39) drawn from the 2020 high to the recent low.
✅ A weekly close above this level + structure building could confirm the beginning of a long-term leg higher.
📈 Volume Flow Indicator has crossed above the midline for the first time in years, suggesting that real buying pressure is back. That’s a shift in momentum worth noting.
🎯 Key Areas of Interest:
• $10.00 – Volume node + prior S/R
• $12.00 – Fib midpoint + prior pivot
• $14.90 – Confluence zone
These are zones where I’ll be watching for continuation, reaction, or reversal.
🌎 Macro Tailwind: Precious Metals Demand
Platinum and palladium are gaining renewed attention as demand increases in EVs, clean energy, and industrial sectors. SBSW — with its deep exposure to both metals — is positioned as a long-term beneficiary if this trend continues.
Add to that the recent global instability and de-dollarization chatter, and you’ve got a macro backdrop favoring real assets over paper. Precious metals are catching a bid — and SBSW could ride that wave.
🧠 My Position
Started buying $4.00 calls and recently rolled to $5.50s. I’m letting this one develop over time — watching for confirmation and continuation.
(Not financial advice — just sharing my perspective as always.)
🕰️ Cycles matter.
📚 History teaches.
💰 Smart money accumulates before the breakout.
This setup has all the hallmarks of a repeat cycle in progress. I’m locked in.
📍 Long-term chartwork, weekly timeframe. Zoom out to see the rhythm.
🛑 Invalidation below $5.50 — no structure, no conviction, I’m out.
If SBSW breaks back below the $5.50 level with high volume and fails to reclaim it quickly, that would invalidate the current breakout structure and suggest this move was a false start. I'd reassess the cycle thesis if we revisit the $4 range with no buyer defense.
Please feel free to comment and let me your opinion
