Starbucks: Home stretch!We now see the Starbucks stock in the final stage of the magenta-colored wave (1). Primarily, we still grant this movement some room to the upside, but from a technical perspective, the high of September 12 could already have marked the top. This alternative scenario (35% likely) will come into play on a drop below the support at $90.18 and would see a dive into our magenta Target Zone (between $85.52 and $77.52).
SBUX
Starbucks stock (NASDAQ:SBUX) Down in Monday's Premarket TradingStarbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX), the global coffee powerhouse, is navigating turbulent waters as its leadership changes hands amidst growing concerns about its mobile ordering system. The app, once hailed as a game-changer, is now being criticized as the company’s “Achilles heel,” posing significant challenges to both operations and customer satisfaction. With former Chipotle CEO Brian Niccol set to take the helm, the question looms: can Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) turn this liability into an asset?
The Mobile Ordering Dilemma
Mobile orders account for nearly a third of Starbucks’ sales, a figure that highlights the importance of the app to the company’s business model. However, the complexity of these orders, often laden with customizations like extra foam or flavored syrups, has led to operational bottlenecks. Baristas are finding themselves overwhelmed, with the added time required for these customizations leading to longer wait times and frustrated customers.
Former CEO Howard Schultz, who recently discussed the issue on the Acquired podcast, did not mince words, calling the mobile app Starbucks’ biggest Achilles heel. Schultz’s concerns are echoed by industry experts, including Robert Byrne, senior director of consumer research at Technomic. Byrne emphasized that the problem isn’t just theoretical; it’s a tangible issue felt in stores nationwide.
The Leadership Transition
As Brian Niccol prepares to take over as CEO, he inherits a company facing significant operational challenges. Niccol, known for his successful turnaround of Chipotle, has a reputation for steering companies through tough times. His appointment has been met with cautious optimism, with industry analysts praising his background in the food industry, particularly his experience leading companies through challenging economic conditions.
Greg Zakowicz, a senior eCommerce expert at Omnisend, noted that Niccol’s experience could be exactly what Starbucks needs. With consumers becoming more price-conscious, especially in non-essential categories like specialty coffee, Niccol’s ability to appeal to cost-sensitive customers could prove invaluable.
Legal Troubles on the Horizon
Adding to Starbucks’ woes is a fresh legal battle that threatens to further tarnish its reputation. The coffee giant is being sued for the third time by Balmuccino LLC, a Los Angeles-based company that claims Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) stole its concept for coffee-flavored lip balms. The lawsuit alleges that Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) used proprietary information shared during a 2018 meeting to develop and launch its “S’mores Frappuccino Sip Kit,” which included coffee-flavored lip glosses.
Balmuccino’s leaders, including a sister-in-law of TV doctor Mehmet Oz, argue that Starbucks did not compensate them for the idea, despite the company’s apparent success with the product. The case has been plagued by procedural issues, with previous versions of the lawsuit being dismissed on technical grounds. However, Balmuccino is pressing forward, seeking compensatory and punitive damages.
The Road Ahead
Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) finds itself at a critical juncture. The company’s ability to address the operational issues linked to its mobile app will be a significant test for Niccol’s leadership. At the same time, the ongoing legal battle with Balmuccino could have lasting implications, both financially and in terms of public perception.
As Starbucks charts its course under new leadership, the stakes have never been higher. Niccol’s success—or failure—will likely hinge on his ability to resolve these challenges while steering the company toward continued growth in an increasingly competitive market.
Technical Outlook
Starbucks stock (NASDAQ:SBUX) is down 0.34% in Monday's premarket trading, presenting a challenging start to the trading day. Despite showing a gap up pattern, the company's looming lawsuit over allegedly copying a coffee-flavored lipstick concept suggests a strong bearish reversal may be on the horizon. The daily price chart closed with a bearish harami candlestick pattern after Friday's after-hours trading, indicating a potential fill of the previous gap up.
Conclusion
The upcoming months will be crucial for Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX). With a new CEO taking the reins and ongoing legal disputes, the coffee giant must navigate these challenges carefully to maintain its position as a leader in the industry. All eyes will be on Niccol as he works to transform Starbucks’ Achilles heel into a strength, while also addressing the company’s legal and operational hurdles.
Starbucks Appoints New CEO: Brian Niccol Takes the Helm Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:SBUX ), a global leader in coffee retail, has made a significant leadership change by appointing Brian Niccol, former CEO of Chipotle Mexican Grill, as its new Chairman and CEO. This decision, announced on September 9, 2024, has already sparked considerable investor interest, with Starbucks shares surging 24% on the news. However, while the market reacts positively, some caution may be warranted as the journey ahead could be challenging.
Leadership Change and Market Reaction
The appointment of Brian Niccol is a bold move by Starbucks, aiming to revitalize the company's growth strategy. Niccol is widely recognized for his transformative leadership at Chipotle, where he nearly doubled the company’s revenue and achieved an 800% increase in its stock value during his tenure. His success in driving digital transformation, menu innovation, and expanding brand benefits positions him as a promising leader for Starbucks at a crucial time.
Niccol is set to succeed Laxman Narasimhan, who is stepping down after a brief 17-month tenure. During his time as CEO, Narasimhan focused on enhancing partner experience and store operations, but the company faced several challenges, including declining sales, rising competition in China, and changing consumer spending patterns due to economic pressures.
What This Means for Starbucks
The appointment of Niccol signals Starbucks' commitment to reinvigorating its growth and adapting to the evolving market landscape. His track record at Chipotle suggests that Niccol could introduce significant changes to Starbucks' operational and digital strategies. However, investors should be mindful that such transformations take time to materialize and that the initial market exuberance may be premature.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
From a technical perspective, Starbucks’ stock has confirmed a double bottom pattern, a bullish indicator that suggests a potential reversal from its recent downtrend. The stock surged above its 200-day moving average with a trading volume of over 150 million shares, the highest since June 2000. This level of activity indicates strong interest from institutional investors, which could bode well for the stock’s future performance.
The daily price chart shows a gap up, a strong bullish reversal pattern where a stock's opening price exceeds the previous day's closing price. Conversely, a gap down occurs when the opening price is lower. A gap up indicates bullish sentiment and strong buying interest.
However, the stock’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently above the 70 threshold, indicating overbought conditions. This could lead to short-term profit-taking, so investors should monitor key support and resistance levels closely.
- Support Levels: Starbucks shares may find support around $86, a level that aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels. If the stock pulls back further, it could test the $83 level, where the double bottom’s neckline is located.
- Resistance Levels: On the upside, the stock could face resistance near $98, with a more bullish move potentially targeting the $107.50 area, where a trendline connects multiple peaks from the past year.
Conclusion: A Cautious Optimism
While the market has responded enthusiastically to Niccol’s appointment, it’s essential to approach this transition with cautious optimism. Niccol's proven leadership could drive significant growth for Starbucks, but the challenges he inherits from his predecessor will require time and strategic execution to overcome. Investors should keep a close eye on how these developments unfold and consider their risk tolerance before making any decisions. The potential is there, but as always in the stock market, nothing is guaranteed.
Starbucks: Brewing Long-Term Success Amid Short-Term ChallengesTrading at 23.4% below our estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 9.78% per year
Earnings have grown 10.8% per year over the past 5 years
Pays a reliable dividend of 3.04%
Starbucks Corporation's recent earnings report might have raised some concerns, but there are several reasons to remain optimistic about SBUX stock.
Despite a challenging quarter, Starbucks is strategically investing in digital innovation and expanding its global footprint, positioning itself for long-term gains.
The company's focus on sustainability and enhancing customer experience highlights its commitment to quality. Moreover, Starbucks' diverse product offerings and loyalty programs provide a solid foundation for future growth.
With strategic cost-cutting measures and a strong financial position, Starbucks is poised to rebound and deliver value to its investors.
SBUX Starbucks Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought SBUX before the previous rally:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of SBUX Starbucks Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 77usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-8-2,
for a premium of approximately $1.97.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Starbucks partners with Grubhub to expand delivery servicesStarbucks Corp., a global coffee shop giant, has embarked on a new delivery service through a partnership with Grubhub. This strategic move aims to broaden Starbucks' customer base, potentially boosting sales despite the high delivery costs.
The timing of this collaboration is strategic, as Starbucks faces challenges in increasing store traffic and sales, particularly in shopping centres and high streets where many of its coffee shops are situated. This challenge is compounded by reduced consumer spending in certain segments due to inflation. However, Starbucks could see an uplift in service appeal since Grubhub+ subscribers will enjoy the benefit of no delivery fees on their coffee orders. The impact of this delivery integration on Starbucks' overall profitability is currently under evaluation.
Let's analyse the stock chart of Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) for potential trading opportunities:
On the Daily (D1) timeframe, Starbucks' stock has identified a resistance level at 81.45 USD and support at 76.85 USD. The stock has been in an uptrend since early May 2024. Should a downtrend emerge, the price could drop to 73.00 USD.
If the uptrend persists and the stock breaches the resistance at 81.45 USD, there could be a buying opportunity with a short-term target of 90.00 USD. In the medium term, if the upward momentum continues, the stock price might rise to 98.00 USD.
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Starbucks: Wide Awake?Starbucks has recently completed its dark green wave in our Target Zone (between $86.38 and $68.39) and should now be wide awake and ready for renewed rises above $89.73. The price has already worked its way upward step by step. However, we consider it 37% likely that SBUX will breach the bottom of our Zone to head for another corrective low.
SBUX found bottom and may reverse LONGSBUX on a daily chart with two sets of VWAP bands anchored to dates back in one year ago
and two years ago shows SBUX to be at the same price level as the low pivot of 2022.
Price has bounced off the lower most of the VWAP bands and moved up in the past three
trading days with higher than usual volume. I believe that short traders are buying to cover
and take realized profits in their trades. The more price moves up the more likely short
traders will liquidate their positions and contribute to buying volume.
A short squeeze could potentially set up here.
I will take a long trade of shares and call options to profit from the price movement I
anticipate. I will set a stop loss at 71.75 the piot low and a target of 93 under the mean VWAP
black lines. The trade is anticipated to last 2-3 months and so the call options wll be taken with
a four- month expiration.
Can SBUX rise from beating beaten down 15% YTD ?SBUX of late has been in a descending channel and has sloped down heavily in April.
It is now in deep undervalued and overbought territory at the bottom of the channel and
above the 3rd lower VWAP band line. The RSI lines ( both faster and slower) are bearish as
well. My trade plan is to watch Starbucks for a reversal which may be signaled by
bullish divergence on the RSI. SBUX has fallen through a volume void under the high volume
area. Once it reverses it could rise fairly quickly to 90 and then slower to 94. These will be
the targets.
Fill The Gap Into $SBUX Short Setup, RR of 1:4Understanding My Investment and Trading Strategy
I focus my charting on three key elements:
1. Price Action via Engulfing Patterns: I look for larger bullish or bearish candlesticks.
2. Price Gaps After Earnings Announcements or News Catalysts: These gaps can indicate significant price movements.
3. Volume Spikes: These confirm increased buying or selling pressure.
These elements help me identify demand and supply zones (support and resistance).
Trade Example
Long Trade:
Entry: $73.06 from the first demand zone (starting May 1st for 5 days).
Stop Loss: A close below $68.
Target: $85.
Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2.4.
My Trade Idea
Short Trade:
Entry: $87 when the gap is filled.
Stop Loss: $90, due to significant selling pressure from the recent earnings report.
First Take Profit: $75, with a Risk/Reward Ratio of 1:4, just before the $73.06 demand zone (which is likely to fail if tested again).
Second Take Profit: $61, anticipating that $60 might be a psychological barrier for investors with buy limits, and it's close to the demand zone at $57.23.
For Long-Term Investors Interested in Starbucks
Price Target for Buying: $57.23, which corresponds to a Price/Earnings (PE) Ratio of 16.
Dividend Yield Target: $56.25, offering a 4% dividend yield. Considering a 5-year dividend growth rate of 9.24%, this results in a 13.24% Rate of Return (RoR).
SBUX gets another earnings miss SHORTSBUX on the dialy chart may be another candidate to short while the general market remains
challenging in the face of the loss of anticipated rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risk.
SBUX has been trending down for nearly six months and the earnings miss add emphaisis to the
trend. At this juncture, there is nothing to suggest a turnaround. I am adding SBUX to
my short list. I will look for pivot highs on a lower time frame and average into an overall
position in pieces.
Starbucks: Deeper! 🐳
Starbucks recently moved lower into our Target Zone (between $86.38 and $68.39), where we anticipate the low for wave (B) in dark green. In the short term, the only thing missing here should be the completion of the subordinate wave (c) in magenta. So, we still grant the stock the space to head closer to the 100.00% Fibonacci. However, it is also 35% likely that our Zone will be undercut. In this case, we would anticipate the low of the alternative wave alt. (B) a little lower in the chart. In any case, as soon as the $89.73 mark is crossed, that will be an important confirmation for a successful bottom formation.
Starbucks Joins Forces with Podback for Coffee Pod RecyclingIn a significant stride towards environmental sustainability, Starbucks ( NASDAQ:SBUX ) has announced a groundbreaking partnership with Podback, a leading coffee pod recycling initiative in the UK. This innovative collaboration aims to revolutionize the way coffee lovers dispose of their used pods, making recycling effortless and accessible to all.
With coffee pod usage on the rise, environmental concerns regarding their disposal have been escalating. Recognizing this pressing issue, Starbucks ( NASDAQ:SBUX ) has taken proactive steps to address it. Through this partnership, Starbucks ( NASDAQ:SBUX ) At Home customers can now easily recycle their used coffee pods by simply picking up free Podback recycling bags at any of Starbucks' 1,250 coffee shops across the UK.
Once filled with used pods, these bags can be conveniently dropped off at any of the 6,500 Yodel drop-off locations nationwide. Additionally, Podback offers kerbside collection services for 1.5 million households in 21 UK local authorities, further enhancing accessibility to recycling facilities.
This initiative sheds light on Starbucks' commitment to sustainability. Jacqui Wetherly, Sustainability Director at Starbucks UK, emphasizes, "We are committed to our continued journey of reducing the environmental impact of all of our coffee products, from the beans to the milks we use and the way it is served." By partnering with Podback, Starbucks ( NASDAQ:SBUX ) is not only making recycling more convenient for its customers but also significantly reducing its environmental footprint.
Rick Hindley, Executive Director at Podback, lauds the collaboration, stating, "Partnering with one of the world’s best-known coffee brands is a sign of the considerable progress that Podback has made towards establishing a convenient and simple way for people to recycle used pods." This partnership exemplifies the collective effort of both Starbucks ( NASDAQ:SBUX ) and Podback in promoting sustainability and responsible consumption.
Furthermore, all coffee pods collected by Podback are recycled within the UK, contributing to the circular economy. Aluminum pods are repurposed into beverage cans, while plastic pods are transformed into various products, including supermarket crates and building materials. Even the leftover coffee grounds undergo anaerobic digestion, generating biogas and serving as a soil improver, completing the recycling loop.
This collaboration between Starbucks ( NASDAQ:SBUX ) and Podback marks a significant milestone in the journey towards a greener future. By providing a seamless recycling solution for coffee pod users, they are not only mitigating environmental impact but also inspiring other companies to adopt similar initiatives. As consumers become increasingly conscious of their environmental footprint, partnerships like these play a crucial role in fostering a more sustainable society.
Technical Outlook
Despite the collaboration with Podback, NASDAQ:SBUX stock is down 2% trading below the 200, 100, and 50-day Moving Averages (MA). NASDAQ:SBUX trades in the oversold region with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 16.99
Starbucks Faces Stock Slump Amidst Global ChallengesStarbucks ( NASDAQ:SBUX ), the renowned coffee giant, is weathering the storm as its stock takes a steep tumble following a downward revision of its annual forecasts. With shares plunging nearly 14%, concerns loom large over the company's future trajectory.
The primary culprits behind Starbucks' woes are twofold: a sluggish demand in the United States and a slower-than-anticipated recovery in the crucial Chinese market. Persistent weakness in the U.S. market, exacerbated by inflationary pressures and a shift towards at-home consumption, has affected the company's bottom line. The adverse impact of several rounds of price hikes has driven customers away from cafes and restaurants, opting instead for home-brewed alternatives.
Adding to the company's woes are external factors such as severe weather conditions in the U.S. dampening sales and geopolitical tensions disrupting operations in the Middle East due to the Israel-Hamas conflict. These challenges have further compounded Starbucks' struggles to regain its footing in key markets.
Analysts have expressed concerns about the prolonged nature of Starbucks' predicament, with Danilo Gargiulo of Bernstein highlighting the lack of clear signs of improvement amidst worsening macroeconomic and competitive dynamics, particularly in China.
Starbucks' ( NASDAQ:SBUX ) revised forecasts paint a bleak picture, with full-year comparable sales expected to range from a low single-digit decline to flat, a far cry from its previous optimistic projections of 4% to 6% growth. Similarly, the company has downgraded its per-share profit growth forecast to between flat and low-single digits, a significant departure from its earlier estimates of 15% to 20% growth.
CEO Laxman Narasimhan acknowledged the shifting consumer landscape, noting that customers are becoming more discerning in their spending habits, especially with stimulus savings largely exhausted.
The repercussions of Starbucks' struggles extend to its stock valuation, with its forward price-to-earnings multiple (P/E) trailing behind industry peers such as McDonald's and Restaurant Brands. This disparity underscores investor concerns about the company's ability to navigate the current challenges and regain its growth momentum.
Technical Outlook
Starbucks' ( NASDAQ:SBUX ) stock closed Tuesday's market trading within the oversold region with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 14.96. Traders ought to be cautious of a trend reversal. The stocks' daily price chart indicates a long "Bearish Harami" candle stick pattern which accentuates the bearish nature of the stock .
SBUX Starbucks Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on SBUX:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of SBUX Starbucks Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 90usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-6-21,
for a premium of approximately $3.15.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Starbucks: Ready for the descent? 🧗🏽♀️The Starbucks share price has fallen again in recent weeks and has now approached the important support level of $89.28. Primarily, we expect the turquoise-colored wave B to continue its corrective rise before starting its final descent to the green target zone between $86.38 and $68.39. Alternatively, however, it could already be working on this descent should it slide directly below support (40% likely).
SBUX Waiting to ShortSBUX looks like it's getting heavy up here. I'm looking to short the break of the uptrend. It's currently at a 2.02% dividend which isn't great right now. I don't like trying to pick tops, but always seem to give it a go. So here's one for everyone to see. Ridicule me if you like.
SBUX Starbucks Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on SBUX:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of SBUX Starbucks Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 96usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-2-2,
for a premium of approximately $1.55.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.