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SPY reversal off highs, scenarios and game planUS indexes were up in early trading after New Home Sales data came out much better than expected. Consumer Confidence Index beats expectations as well. But later markets reversed, engulfed those gains and closed near lows. Lets see clues and points of adjustments (15 min timeframe analysis). After price reached resistance zone $195.50-.60 reversal candle appeared that usually leads to correction. Then buyers failed to hold 8/21 EMA - sentiment is changing. Finally, when sellers managed to erase all intraday gains and broke down 3-days support - strong signal that sellers are in control. Many traders waited for such type of sell off that suddenly took place. Today, in media we will see many articles with fears across the board. They will be screaming that price found its top and now it is going to pullback 10% off the highs. But let be objective. Price just closed below 8 EMA. And before this boom scenario will come into play price should go through 21/50/100/200 EMAs. I think that we will see new highs this year, but question is what will happen first - pull back lets say to 50 EMA or new recor high. This red reversal candle is definitely something to take notice for short term active traders who open their positions intraday or for few days. We can expect 2-3 days of continuation down move and then will measure. I mapped out levels of support and resistance where to make adjustments/take decisions. If sellers want to be in control they don't want to give back $195.27 8 EMA, then we have high at $196.50. And break below intraday low $194.48 could lead to $193.95 21 EMA. Then we have potential support - swing low from 12 of June at $193.11. Intermidiate target could be $191.28 50 EMA. I have three scenarios ni my had to game plan today's action. #1: Price will bounce off of yesterday's low. High probability strategy will be buying leaders that show relative strength: $MSFT, $INTC, $NFLX, $FB, $YELP, $JPM, $WFC, $TSLA, $DDD, $FSLR are some of them. #2: otherwise, if SPY will go through low then I will consider short stocks that show relative weakness: $BA, $GE, $AAPL, $IBM, $C. #3: market opens higher then will sell off.
AMEX:SPY
by andrew.berg
Facebook tight consolidation prepares to resolveFacebook (FB) in the morning went through previous high at $59.56 but than reversed and gave us tactical entry with Short option. That was point where you make adjustments and should react quickly as market stays in range-bound mode. After it came from $20s to $70s and then was sold off to mid $50s it enetered into wedge/range and recent action became very tight. I expect that it will resolv soon and will take breakout trades both sides. Today, my plan is to trade with Short below previous low of the day at $58.18 and I expect to see some downside continuation. I have slight bias to downside as most of my moving averages curling down but it still stays above 200 MA ($54). You should count overall market conditions. If it will confirm our selling idea then I am going to execute this trade.
NASDAQ:META
by andrew.berg
5
CTXS laggard play, looking for move through 200MABig Picture: US markets are strong, so I like long ideas. Despite, this stock looks weak I think if market break up failure scenario will come into play money will rotate from stocks that are on highs to underperforming stocks. And if market will continue showing strength momentum will cautch up this stock as well. This technology company grew up from $20 since early 2009 and found top in 2011 at $88. From then it entered into big consolidation wedge with bottom close $50 (aorund half of that big igniting move) means that long term investors still control price action. Short Term tech analysis: Stock gapped up $59.46 on earnings on 24 of April, sold off from 200 MA but bounced off from shorter term moving averages with pivot low at $57.77. Right now, it is in front of 200 MA building nice upper level base. Trade Plan: I like entry here at $60.37 with stop below $57.77. Break up and close above 200MA could lead to $62.25-$63.44 resistance zone, then we have gap down pivot point at $66.48. Macro target is mid $70ish area - top of wedge.
CLong
by andrew.berg
BTCUSD: Global Support Holds; Local Trend Reverses (by May 22nd) As everyone knows, except for in the most cataclysmic of circumstances, long-term trend signal always trumps short-term fluctuations, in a stochastic dynamical system. If that rule is being violated, the reasons are likely psychosomatic. •Empirically, there has been an exponential, global, lower bound of support buffeting Bitcoin's long-term uptrend against overall demise, (approximated in this logarithmic scaling by a GREEN↗DASHED trend-line). Over the next 2–4 weeks, it will be determined whether that support is ultimate. With only the assumption that this will indeed hold, in this chart I suggest that another major short-term crash ≤ $400 thus becomes extraordinarily unlikely —even if the local downtrend (RED↘DASHED trend-line) were to continue in the same spirit it has been occurring previously (see purple illustration and its dotted↘line companion beneath, outlining best 'worst-case' trajectory)— as there would not be sufficient time to re-establish the long-term recovery. •Additionally, the "TIME BETWEEN LOCAL CRASHES" —apologies for the 'anchored' text element.— in this cycle has generally stayed on the order of months; thus, even if this period were shortening, assuming a consistent ratio of decay, it would take ~29 days (i.e. until 05/10/2014) for some next hypothetical crash to occur —a purely statistical argument— which, again, would be beyond the stated recovery bound, thus I must discount that possibility under the conditions of the scenario. •I've quoted $449 with a BLUE—BAR here to indicate an approximate convergence of the 'reversal zone' (i.e. where the right-most CYAN┊VERTICAL intersects the PURPLE↘DOWN-trend), which extends to the $400 RED━BAR line for clarity. In order to stay on target for recovery via the momentum of the aforementioned global uptrend, the downtrend must begin to show signs of local reversal somewhere within said region. •Deflection Triangle: To help visualize the arrival of a reversal across 05/09/2014–05/16/2014, as compared to the recent self-similar 'fractal' behavior, look for there to be a deflection away from the center of triangular region formed from the intersection of these three lines: {GREEN↗DASHED, PURPLE↘DOTTED, BLUE—BAR}, as thise would have been the otherwise expected zone of continuance on the original downtrend. By May 22nd 2014, it will be clear we are leaving the ↘ we've been in since December, marking the global uptrend to resume. To read about my expectations for what will happen after this prediction comes to pass, see my idea entitled "EPOCH 3: A 60-Week–Long Bubblecast", (which is linked to this chart).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by snowsilence