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XVG:BTC - Verge Head & Shoulders pattern, watch for breakdown.Hello, pretty probable senario with all of the FUD coming out last 2 days, closing a Head and shoulders pattern and bouncing back up based on the news if they manage ot pull the Wraith Protocol out. Also Bitcoin is gaining momentum so you need to watch this out. It's along trade with first target the previous ATH marked on the chart. Happy traing and remember that you invens on your own risk. Happy to discuss with different opinions.
Long
by IvelinAngelov
1
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Something for the Weekend Breakout ScenarioBitcoin: BTCUSD Update into the Weekend:Scenarios The battle continues and finally the bears have made an impression on the upper parallel, pushing price down to 7800, where pin bars from earlier show some demand (not shown on chart, but significant to the very near term now). There is no winner yet, though. It can move sideways from here, meeting demand off the parallel and more still at 7717 freezer lid level and down to 7660 at an absolute pinch, building a new rectangular range between 7717 and 7990-8000. It can move sideways further, out of the pull of the parallels, large and small, but still be Ok so long as 7717-7660 holds - but it would be a sign of strength if it could avoid all that, use the large parallel as support and then power higher, and back through the neck line again - if and when it gathers enough buying power to manage that, this next time could well prove successful in breaking the last bears that still stand strong at 7990-8000. So far, from their viewpoint, looking down the mountain from 8000 with stops just above, there's nothing to scare them...yet. OK, that big bear raid first thing in London didn't work out so well for them this time, but their stops still haven't pinged yet. When that happens and 8000 is broken by 20 points it becomes another breakout/momentum play. It will maybe need China to open to create enough volume...they like breakouts - but we need to see one now to add to long positions from here...should it come (but think it will at some point this weekend even if they try to sell it off in China first thing Saturday) it could well be explosive in nature. Doesn't have to be but could well be. And once 8000 is actually broken the upside is, by nature of the beast, incalculable. Anyone who says they have a value for Bitcoin is not to be trusted any more than asking your dog how much it's worth. No one has ANY clue. It could be 15000, it could be 30000, it could be 5000 and it could be 5 one day. No one knows. You KNOW that though. And it's enough to make money - big money - either way. You don't even have to believe in Bitcoin per se, just believe what the chart is telling you, and no one else. And so to the poential for downside this weekend coming: the big parallel remains the first line of support, and then 7717-7660 (stops for remaining longs from 7570 tight under 7660). So if 7717 fails and then 7060 also then fails we have a near term problem emerging and Bitcoin should fall away to 7531 again and the rectangular range suddenly expands from 8000 at top to 7531 at bottomwith 7717 as the dividing line between the three...fantastic for day traders, trading between these lines. This could take a large part of Saturday to play out if we see it..again great for day traders, a nice wide range to play within, potentially developing this weekend as a consequence of this type of price action, if 7717 gives way, as above. But, the bull case is strong whilst above 7717 and still just fine at 7531. But if this fails at any point this weekend, the bears are getting control again. It's a buy on any retest of 7531 with stop just under 7500 for rally to 7719. Then close if a day trader and only go long again from 7730 to 7980 with a stop under 7700, trading between the three blue lines. Long Story short: Turn aggressively bullish again on a break above 8000 by 20 points, that can be sustained (very careful here as it could explode upwards, and potentially downwards too, so stops need using and the risk of being hit quite high so they need to be some way away from 8000 if longs are triggered, at least 100) This is still tough work but the bulls won't quit... That parallel above, just holding it back now...if it breaks above it soon, then the break out could well follow soon after. Good for swing traders. Otherwise we'll be heading for a Saturday made for day-traders, as above. And turn aggressively bearish again only a break below 7531 looking to short rallies back u
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
S&P 500: What if history does NOT repeat again in 2017?Scenario: No "Black Monday" crash next week - 30 years after the "1987" stock market crash. What if there is no large stock market crash in the next week and instead we get to see lots of new all-time highs as bulls keep pressing the marketing higher and higher? Based on my own research the odds for a crash next week have strongly increased going into next Monday, October 23, 2017 as the uptrend has started to get weaker on October 19, 2017. But given the fact that so many are warning about a repeat of the "1987" crash, here is a scenario what might happen, if the "S&P 500" does not start to crash in the next 1-7 trading days and instead begins a very strong short squeeze leading to new all-time highs. In this bullish scenario there could be a very strong rally, which might take the "S&P 500" from around 2550 points quickly up to around 2700 points. The actual crash might then for example occur in early December or later at the start of Q2 2018. Don't get me wrong, I have started to get very bearish today on October 19, 2017 as the price declined on this historically day right along what some of my indicators show me. And if the "S&P 500" falls below recent lows I'm going to change my opinion immediately to very strongly bearish. But so far it appears that maximum greed might yet not be fully priced in. Trade setup: Bullish breakout happens Long entry: 2560 (after new breakout all-time high 2570 occurred) Target: 2695 Stop loss: 2525 Risk: 35 points Reward: 125 points
TVC:SPX
by ChartArt
1
Long GBPJPY Anticipating Strong GBP DataI've realized that I've making too many trades lately and with increasing complication in my analysis. This trade is my attempt to go back to the core of being a contrarian, trying to find the most "pain" in the market and benefit from it. My game plan is now: first looking at retail's positioning that is the most extreme for the currency pair in focus, monitoring the price action associated with the pair to see if market has been agreeing/disagreeing to that view from the retail's perspective. Finally is to assess the % probability of the fundamental event in focus and conduct a scenario analysis. Analysis: - Positioning: Net Short, most in GBPJPY, no pair is Net Long - Price action: Net Long at this point thus there is a disagreement between the Retail's position and the market's sentiment. GBPJPY in particular is relatively flat. - Fundamental: Service PMI is expected to be flat but I think it has a better chance to beat the estimate. Conclusion: Go Long GBPJPY, if the data is bad I expect the initial reaction of people who Shorted early is to TP and that will send the pair temporarily higher and I will TP there. If the data is indeed a beat, I can hold this trade longer, maybe to end of day. Technical levels: - Support: 149.0 - Resistance: 149.5-150
Long
by vietbach1990
ETHUSD scenario Since there is significant pressure in the cryptos until Aug 1st, I expect ETHUSD to sell a bit more. Not that it is not enough. There is significant buying at 180s, and orders at 160s. Scenariocast is: The key levels of significance 120 and 220 to become a band whilst keeping its move within the falling wedge until reaching August 1st.I find it likely to see a dip at 120 usd and a bounce back to 160s. And an uptrend from 160s, first facing profit taking at key level 220s. If for some reason it does that, there will have been an inverted H&S with a neckline at 220s and 320s target, which is another key level.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Birtan
1
Four S&P 500 crash scenarios for Q4 2016, potential support 2017After a long battle the bears are gaining control again at the start of earnings season one month before the US election. The odds for the bulls to hold the red trend line the next weeks are slim and falling, therefore I drew four scenarios how the "S&P 500" might move in the last quarter of the year 2016 and further in the year 2017 after the US election. I suspect one last bounce higher to occur in the next two weeks, which would be a better time to post this bearish chart, but on the big picture as mentioned before I don't see this changing the outlook anymore. This is the reason though why I post this chart as "neutral" and not as "short", because the crash scenarios are not fully confirmed yet with a final bull trap. Scenario A: Awesome. A fast but brief drop into support around 2085-2100-2115. Followed by a very strong rally starting in the first quarter of 2017 with rally target 2300 points for the year 2017 (maybe the rally starts even earlier after the US election, after a December FED rate hike). Scenario B: A slow choppy but controlled pullback into support around 2015-2030-2045. This scenario also offers the chance of a very strong rally back towards at least 2200 points again in the year 2017. Scenario C: A fast chaotic crash below 2100 might find support around 1950-1975-2000 points. Most likely after this large decline the stock market might only move back up to 2150 in the year 2017 to test the resistance there. Scenario D: Doom. A massive flash crash due to the lack of liquidity in the market and the burst of the real estate REIT bubble, tech unicorn FANG bubble and the overall ETF market bubble (among many other bubbles which might burst simultaneously as mentioned in the related link "Bubbles everywhere" below). My original idea from 2 months ago: Bubbles everywhere: Current risks to the US stock market rally
FX:SPX500
by ChartArt
2