Get started

Scenarios

75: Disney Stock Analysis and Outlook with Levels and ScenariosDisney has been experiencing mixed results in its recent earnings, reflecting both strong progress in streaming profitability and ongoing challenges in its theme park operations. The stock is now approaching a crucial zone between $80 to $90, which is a point of interest for potential reversal. Here's a breakdown of possible scenarios: Bullish Scenario : If Disney can hold and reverse in the $80-$90 zone, we could see a rebound driven by continued strength in streaming, especially if fundamentals improve further. The company’s recent milestone of achieving profitability in streaming earlier than expected is a positive indicator. If Disney can sustain and build on this, combined with strategic investments in new content and attractions, the stock may attract buyers and see a move back towards higher resistance levels. Bearish Scenario : However, if Disney fails to hold this key $80-$90 support zone, we could see the price move lower, with the next areas of interest at $65 and potentially $50. The theme parks’ underperformance and increasing operational costs are key risks. If these challenges persist without a significant recovery in fundamentals, particularly in visitor numbers or cost management, further downside pressure on the stock is likely. Technical Outlook: - Support Levels: $80-$90 (Key zone), $65, $50 - Resistance Levels: $111, $145 The upcoming price action in the $80-$90 zone will be critical in determining the next major move for $DIS. Keeping an eye on both the technical levels and fundamental developments will be crucial for making informed trading decisions.
NYSE:DIS
by SeventyFive-Invest
BTC - Pre-Halving Scenarios 📈📉Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders, Let's keep it simple! BTC has been trading within a large range bounded by $60,000 support and $70,000 resistance. Currently, BTC is hovering around the lower bound of the range at $60,000. Scenarios: 1️⃣ Bullish As long as the $60,000 support holds, we expect the bulls to take over and push the price towards the upper bound of the orange channel. (to be confirmed on lower timeframes) 2️⃣ Bearish If the $60,000 support is broken downward, we expect a bearish movement towards the $50,000 demand zone. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
by TheSignalyst
18
Elevated Inflation News Amplify Safe Haven Demand for Gold 🧈Abstract: Recent inflation data from the Federal Reserve has fueled concerns over persistent price pressures. In this environment, gold's inherent value as a haven asset stands to benefit. My open-source Adaptive MFT Extremum Pivots indicator, which can be applied across various markets, reveals support and resistance levels on the gold market. Based on these calculations, the nearest resistance zone lies around $2055, while the mathematical middle of all resistances is estimated to be around $2072. A potential trade setup involves purchasing gold upon breaching the nearest resistance level. Aim for a target price slightly above the resistance level, allowing for potential retracements. Establish a stop-loss order below the recent price consolidation zone. Alternatively, consider purchasing gold upon bouncing from the nearest support level. Aim slightly above the resistance level, again with a stop-loss order below the recent price consolidation zone. --- Dear Esteemed Readers, Fellow Analysts, I. News Catalyst: 1: Higher-Than-Expected Inflation Reading: The recent inflation data from the Federal Reserve suggests persistent inflationary pressures. Implications for Gold: 2: Safe Haven Demand Amplified: Gold's inherent value as a haven asset is further enhanced amidst heightened inflation. 3: Technical Outlook Optimistic: Gold's recent price trend and favorable technical indicators indicate potential upside movement. II. Chart Description: 1: Indicator: I've used my open-source Adaptive MFT Extremum Pivots indicator to autonomously compute the support and resistance levels. I tried to write this indicator, which you find among relevant publications, as general as I could. The gold market is only one of my choices where I deployed this script. You can try it on any of this and any other markets. If you've got feedback, I'd be happy to update what I've got or create a new branch to experiment with your unique approach. You can change the indicator without coding knowledge through the user configuration block like colors and precision (!) per the documentation I wrote. The script is "adaptive" because you'll always get a bit of different data on the same market depending on the moment you use this indicator. But that's good because you can monitor the data velocity between time points with this knowledge. As I mentioned, the script is general and in the following, I'll explain how it helped me to write this particular analytics on the gold market. 2: Data Explanation and Chart Elements: You can find the script's window in the bottom right corner of the chart. As you can see in the center of the table, the Pivot point is about $2044.948. The script computed this data from a monthly timeframe. In the upper half of the window, you find the monthly high ($2075.430), monthly low ($2033.940), weekly high ($2148.990), and weekly low ($2020.135) values on this market. The latter two data came from a weekly timeframe. So, you can consider this analytics to be a Multi-TimeFrame Analytics (MTF or MTFA, see the keywords. S1, S2, and S3 mean three support levels (green lines on the chart) and R1, R2, and R3 mean three resistance levels (red lines on the chart). I named the levels according to their distance from the pivot point. S1/R1 are the closest and S3/R3 are the most distant levels. The actual price is $2033.050. The price's a bit below the pivot point, which could be a bearish signal. In this context, however, I'd call it a retracement because it's above the double support levels of $2020 and $1998. The third support level is around $1971. If you remember my messages from the chat, you know I estimated the support zone around $2000, see the green zone on the chart, which aligns with the mathematical middle level of the support levels. I believe these computations could make a bit of sense because if you look to the left of the chart, you'll see how the price bounced repeatedly from either of these supports or got rejected at either of these resistances. I'd point out the interval between 19 April and 02 May 2023 to observe these price actions. With the price consolidating above all the support levels, I'd estimate an attempt to breach the resistances. The nearest resistance is around $2055 while the mathematical middle of all the resistances is around $2072, see the red zone on the chart. If the positive news persists on the market, I estimate the price could reach as high as $2055 (R1), $2087 (R2), and $2098 (R3). You find all these data with higher precision in the bottom half of the script's window, the bottom right corner of the chart. The dotted arrows depict various price scenarios that gold could follow. The more pronounced the bullish momentum, the less retracement we can expect. In the most optimistic scenario, gold could reach resistance R3 from its current support levels. However, if demand weakens, the price might briefly dip to support S2 or even S3. Still, a breakdown below S3 would be necessary to invalidate the bullish trend. As long as the bullish trend remains intact, resistances R1 and R2 remain attainable targets. Below, I propose some possible positions according to a support/resistance strategy. You can interpret the market in various ways and the sentiment dynamically changes. That's why I made the script adaptive. You can load to your chart any time and see the market dynamics. Furthermore, I'm open to all confirmation, conflicting, extending, or questioning opinions of yours. III. Trade Setup: Entry Point: Consider purchasing gold upon breaching the nearest resistance level. Target Price: Aim slightly above the resistance level, allowing for potential retracement. Stop-Loss: Establish a stop-loss order below the recent price consolidation zone. And: Entry Point: Consider purchasing gold upon bouncing from the nearest support level. Target Price: Aim slightly above the resistance level, allowing for potential retracement. Stop-Loss: Establish a stop-loss order below the recent price consolidation zone. IV. Risk Disclosure: Please note: This is solely a speculative outlook based on current economic developments and does not constitute investment advice. Trading in financial markets carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Kind regards, Ely
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Elysian_Mind
3
TSLA's Fight the Falling Resistance 🧠 Rejection or BreakoutDear Esteemed Members, TSLA is mostly bearish within the resistance of the red triangle. As long as it remains below the trendline, bears can enjoy better risk-reward ratios. Some traders wait out the price's rejection at the falling line to open their short positions. Others wait for a confirmed breakout through the resistance to open a long position. Now, both sides have a significant chance because the pattern is usually bearish, but TSLA reclaimed the EMAs in a convincing manner. I've got a short, but I opened it above the resistance. So, I can close it in profit at the resistance. I wouldn't open a new short until I see the price action around the trendline. The white arrows mark the scenarios I mentioned. I also placed two positions on the chart that one could make depending on TSLA's behavior around the falling level. Disclaimer: It's not an investment advice. My analytics serve only entertainment purposes. Do your research. Historic results don't guarantee future outcomes. Kind regards, Ely
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Elysian_Mind
ALTO's Comprehensive Trajectories: AI-powered InsightsS taying informed is a key to making well-considered decisions. Today, I revisit ALTO, shedding light on its current state, potential scenarios, and the nuanced interplay of technical analytics. A few weeks ago, I outlined why ALTO is considered a risky asset, and in a subsequent update, I signaled a near-term rally in the stock market, impacting ALTO's trajectory. Both perspectives remain relevant today. A s we assess the broader market, stocks may either sustain the rally briefly or consolidate around current levels. The clarity lies in the immediate market reaction next Monday, November 20. A continuation signals further upside, while a bearish pullback indicates consolidation. Even in the case of a dump, the potential for subsequent continuation exists, but it prompts consideration of safer target prices. ALTO 's appeal lies in its allure to traders seeking risk and potential profit. In the event of a continued rally, investors may find the courage to engage with this high-risk, high-reward asset. Conversely, if general stocks consolidate, sentiment could shift, prompting a move from ALTO to less risky stocks, casting a bearish shadow on ALTO. T urning to technical analytics, our Deep Neural Network-based AI, employing Support Vector Machines, predicted a support level of around 1.85. This prediction held true as ALTO bounced from this level on November 20. This level might serve as the target for a potential short position, succeeding the current long position. T he long position's target stands around 2.73, identified as a resistance level by our AI. In a sustained rally, this resistance could be breached, setting the stage for the next target price along the falling resistance on the purple line. As depicted in the chart, the timing of the rally significantly influences target price estimation. Rapid rallies elevate the probability of higher target prices, while extended consolidation brings them closer, possibly intersecting with the two resistances in August. N avigating this landscape, it's crucial to recognize ALTO's risk profile. The 2.73 resistance is formidable, and a bearish event could trigger a retreat to the support level. Below the support, free fall becomes a possibility, underscoring the importance of placing a stop loss, at least below this level. W hile near-term crash signs are not evident, it's essential to acknowledge ALTO's long-term bearish potential. Please note that this analysis serves educational purposes and is not financial advice. Best regards, Ely
NASDAQ:ALTOLong
by Elysian_Mind
Dow Jones vs. DXY Q1 of 2024 Crash ScenarioCrude chart depicting what a crash in the Q1 of 2024 may look like as it relates to TVC:DXY Similar scenarios could occur across multiple markets including the BNC:BLX and OANDA:XAUUSD Depicted here showing TVC:DJI making a double top with a slightly higher ATH as the US Dollar Index re-tests monthly support and the top of a falling wedge before rocketing up above its recent highs and heading towards its 1985 ATH. Below are a few more detailed looks at TVC:DXY - its falling wedge, an older weekly chart talking about this, and finally zooming way out to see its potential for revisiting the '85 ATH, or higher: Dollar Index Falling Wedge Breakout Original Post - Market Recoveries be Wary of DXY Potential for Revisiting ATH and/or breaking it Also, a couple of examples of how it correlates with the Bitcoin BNC:BLX & Crypto Market, plus a crude example similar to the one in this post showing Gold Spot Market OANDA:XAUUSD Macro Negative Correlation with Bitcoin Crude Example - Gold Spot Market
TVC:DXY
by dudebruhwhoa
2
NQ Intraday Analysis 04/19/23Hi all, welcome back to a new morning :) Without going into the nitty-gritty, NQ is holding a major zone right now (simplified to the most recent area) and the market has extended almost 300 points within a day. I am expecting two scenarios at the opening area which will define how I act for the remainder of the day: Scenario 1: Mean reversion long - Bulls are able to hold the major zone and end with a maximum target around 13300. Expect possible shorts around 13300 if shorts begin to hold major zones. Scenario 2: Breakout short - Bulls cannot hold the major zone and the market breaks the low of the zone with a close. If bears can hold this zone on a retest, expect short scalps with the first minimum target around 13025. Risk of reversal long back above the major zone should be taken into account. Of course, this is not financial advice and I have my own data used to validate this opening plan; please always perform your own research and judgement! Good luck and I hope all of you have a great day!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Billy_FX_
USD/CAD - SHORT SCENARIOS - ANALYSE – WThe "USDCAD" is in an uptrend since May – 2021, and it stands to reason that we can expect a top soon if necessary. -> The USD is the base currency of the pair and should, shortly, enter a correction. -> At which key areas we can expect a Local Top, I will analyze in more detail in today's post. -> For this, we will look at the "USDCAD" from the weekly view and integrate elements of the daily, weekly and monthly charts. table of contents - 1st part = EXPLANATION - Used indicators + levels - 2nd part = SCENARIOS - pro + con breakdown - 3rd part = CONCLUSION FIRST PART 1. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT | For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the movement, which started in - March/2020 - and ended in - May/2021 -. -> 0.75 FIB = 1.40031 points | Pending processing -> 0.786 FIB = 1.40989 points | Pending processing -> 0.88 FIB = 1.43491 points | Pending processing > As "BLUE" lines - drawn in the chart. 2. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT | For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the move, which started in - July/2022 - and ended in - August/2022 -. -> 2.618 FIB = 1.40258 points | Pending processing > As "PASTELL ORANGE" lines - drawn in the chart. 3. | SUPPLY ZONES | The supply zones formed at the beginning of the downward movement, thus they were created and in - March-May/2020. -> MONTH ZONE = 1.38502 - 1.46685 points | Pending processing -> WEEK ZONE = 1.38502 - 1.41409 points | Pending processing -> DAY ZONE | 1 | = 1.39686- 1.40488 points | Pending processing -> DAY ZONE | 2 | = 1,43750- 1,46685 points | Pending processing > As "GREY" areas - drawn in the chart. 4. | POINT OF INTEREST | The points of psychological interest, were created the first time - in 2003 - and showed some reactions since then. -> POI | 1 | = 1.38500 points | Pending processing -> POI | 2 | = 1,40000 points | Pending processing -> POI | 3 | = 1.41000 points | Pending processing -> POI | 4 | = 1,46500 points | Pending processing | POI should be used as resistance in the upcoming situation. | POI is used as ZONE -> no point exact resistance. > As "TURKIS" line - drawn in the chart. 5. | VOLUME PROFILE | The volume profile describes the cumulative trading volume at each price level. In the analysis, the volume of the last "TOP" formation was analyzed. -> VOLUME ZONE = 1.40100 - 1.41100 points | Pending processing -> POC = 1.40500 - 1.40700 points | Pending processing | Point of Control - The price level with the highest traded volume. 5. | OLD MARKET STRUCTURE BREAK | The old market structure break, represents a psychological level because it was the decisive point in the last corrective move. | MSB = 1.38502 points | Pending processing PART TWO Once the price reaches the broken down levels, we can expect a reaction from the market, which depends on the "weighting" of each level. PLEASE NOTE - the USD is the base currency of the USD/CAD, so we are 100% dependent on the performance of the DXY. 1. | SCENARIO | TOP - at approx. 1.38500 points (Unlikely) What speaks for this? - "OLD MARKET STRUCTURE BREAK" - "SUPPLY ZONES | W1 + M1" - "POI (1) + this idea must be supported by the DXY! What is against it? - "VOLUME PROFILE" = little traded volume. - "FIBONACCI" = between 0.618 - 0.75 FIB - "USD (DXY)" = further appreciation. 2nd | SCENARIO | TOP - at approx. 1.40000 - 1.41000 points (Very likely) What speaks in favor of this? - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) | 0.75 + 0.786 FIB" - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (2) | 2.618 FIB" - "SUPPLY ZONES | W1 + M1 + D1 (1)" - "POINT OF INTEREST (2) + (3) - "VOLUME ZONE - "POC + this idea must be supported by the DXY! What is the argument against it? - "FIBONACCI" = 0.88 FIB - "SUPPLY ZONE" = D1 (2) liquidity - "USD (DXY)" = further appreciation. 3. | SCENARIO | TOP - at approx. 1.43500 points (Unlikely) What speaks in favor of this? - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) | 0.88 FIB" - "SUPPLY ZONES | D1 (2)" + this idea must be supported by the DXY! What is the argument against it? - "USD (DXY)" = further appreciation. CONCLUSION It is impossible to say at this time what the exact scenario for "USDCAD" will be. = Despite this, the key points I have presented, will most likely trigger a reaction. -> As soon as the TOP formation emerges, I will upload a detailed SHORT execution. -> Feel free to discuss it in the comments and share our perspectives, I'd be "burning" to hear your take on the whole thing. If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive a review. Thank you and happy trading!
Short
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
GOOD TIME TO BUY BITCOIN!It's always a good time to buy bitcoin, if you're really a long-term investor. Bitcoin is a first generation of blockchain technology and the godfather of crypto market. You shouldn't be worry, if you bought some of bitcoin above $9k, because you have two scenarios for getting a good profit. First scenario is next halving will happen on May 2020, so you might see some action in price above $15k at least. Second scenario don't sell bitcoin after halving directly, buy some of trusted altcoins which will be in downtrend vs bitcoin at that time. If you didn't buy above $9k and waiting to buy in cheap prices, I recommend to set buy orders one by one to $3.5k. Let's say, you have $5k. You can set buy orders ( $500 at $8,401 ), ( $500 at $7,899 ), ( $500 at $7,301 ), ( $500 at $6,799 ), ( $500 at $6,201 ), ( $500 at $5,699 ), ( $500 at $5,101 ), ( $500 at $4,599 ), ( $500 at $4,001 ) and ( $500 at $3,499 ). ACCORDING TO DAILY TREND, WE SHOULD CROSS UP $10,500 TO SEE $12K & $15K LEVELS. IF WE DOES BREAK DOWN $7,350 LEVEL, WE WILL SEE $6K & $4K LEVELS AGAIN. PICK UP YOUR SCENARIO AND TRY TO MANAGE YOUR WALLET WITHOUT LOSING. HAPPY TRADING ;)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by b4sk
12/27/22 NQ Intraday PlanningHi all, felt like sharing my intraday planning for NQ today. I have two scenarios based on the opening range especially since we have taken out local lows (high probability short targets) during the open. Please note that the idea is shown on a 15-minute chart but I will often use lower timeframes (5 minute) to plan and execute. If the low set during the opening range is not revisited some time after the open, I expect there to be a higher probability of going long, with further long confirmation as the market climbs. It is unlikely that new highs will be set today (possibly even a late day selloff), but it is possible to set new highs if the market climbs with some hourly momentum. Also it is possible that longs can be faked out into the next scenario below so size accordingly. If the low set during the opening range is breached some time after the open, I would expect a higher probability of a slow crawl down or an unexpected spike short since all high probability short targets have been achieved. It is also likely in this scenario that the market can pullback within the opening range and chop at least until late in the day. With both scenarios there is a clear element of unpredictability (where a quality scenario will usually provide a clear directional bias in terms of which targets are likely/unlikely). It would be wise to control size and maximum loss today with a focus on taking clean technical setups. I have a clear reproducible setup I use to execute these scenarios, so I take no responsibility for whatever setup you choose to take ;) Good luck all, Billy_FX_
FX:NAS100
by Billy_FX_
3
Unique Perspectives on CryptoThis graph represents the inverse chart of the top 10 Cryptocurrencies' market cap. I spotted a few conflicting signals which I described using 3 forecasting lines (Red, Blue, and Green lines). With correct SLs, TPs, and open orders set - great profits can be made. Furthermore, I will rate the likeliness of each potential outcome Outcome 1 (red line) (Bullish for this graph/Bearish for BTC) Reasoning: -Successful breakout from the closest white line to the current (Aug 22) candlestick. Therefore, the breakout should continue. -Purely following the trend and candlesticks patterns, a strong move to the upside last week should be followed by a few(range of the red line) bullish candles. -Last week's bullish close flipped the signal from bearish to bullish in the Trend-Based Fib extension analysis. This is due to last week's candle bullishly absorbing the whole bearish movement from the last 3 weeks, to close above the 1(128.3) fib support. Although last week's candlestick closed close to the 1(128.3) fib support, the move be seen as a retest(from the fib line). Likelihood of happening: 5/10 Outcome 2 (blue line) (Bullish for this graph/Bearish for BTC) Reasoning: -The closest purple line to the current (Aug 22) candlestick is retested (to the downside) from a failed breakout to the upside. -After the fall it shall bounce off its next and major diagonal support presented as the lower purple line with the same gradient. It is a strong support line; the high time frame makes it even stronger. -Afterwhich, the bullish rally should continue, to hit the top Fib lines within the extension. Likelihood of happening: 6/10 Outcome 3 (green line) (Bearish for this graph/Bullish for BTC) Reasoning: -The first anticipated fall follows the same idea as Outcome 2, but follows with stronger bearish action. -A turning point (to the downside) in the current trend may be spotted by the candlesticks reversing at the black line running through the middle of the chart. It is acting as one of the strongest resistance points on the chart. Likelihood of happening: 5/10 It is important to know that we are heading into a scary, unique recession. It is critical to account for fundamental factors. Some fundamental analysis can be found on my page. Plz like and subscribe if you enjoyed my content :)
PEPPERSTONE:CRYPTO10
by Sanzhar_m
Should get InterestingI posted bigger picture bullish predictions for ETH end of June and July when it was under 1100 predicting a rally to 1700-1800 - my expectations then was derived from the accumulation structure I observed around the bottom and those were markup targets. At the time my upper resistance was 2333. Given the information contained in the price action since then I can now give more precise predictions near term: - Expecting an expanded flat (EF) to form here over the next few weeks that will provide a structure allowing attempted break of my adjusted resistance of 2265 at or around the intersection of the downtrend resistance (light red line) since November - More upside to 2012-2172 in the coming days before the A wave of the EF begins - the A wave will likely conclude in the upper 1600s - The B wave would then test the 2265 resistance for the first time and that will be expected to fail resulting in a rapid sell off to upper 1300s-low 1500s (wave C of the EF), which will complete the bullish impulse and subsequent corrective wave off the lows (I didn't draw in the count but we are currently in wave 5 (should conclude around 2012-2172)). This is just one scenario that is most likely based on my control charts and level mapping. - alternatively we go ahead and test the 2265 resistance from here and then begin a corrective wave (the levels will change slightly if so but essentially the drop would be from 2265 to 1300-1600 range, and then re-attempt breakout). - The common expectation I've seen is that this is something along the lines of bear market rally, and thats possible, however, the accumulation would not have been as strong as we've seen. Also, even if it is this latter case the overall market is over-shorted and a squeeze could unfold (or has already started) making my predictions still correct albeit for the wrong reasons. I haven't missed on ETH recently but we'll see. The black path is my expected projection.
FTX:ETHUSD
by JerryManders