BITCOIN DAILY, Patience Is Key!Dear Traders,
Right now we're sitting in the middle of the parallel channel.
We can predict alot of situations based on this chart.
On the short-term bearish scenario, Bitcoin can retrace at support of our parallel channel, we can expect upward at 10,555.
On the mid-term bearish scenario, bitcoin could break our parallel channel, possibly retracing back to our descending triangle, this is a major support. From there we can expect bitcoin to go back upward.
On the long-term bearish scenario, bitcoin could break our descending triangle, which indicates a very bearish sign, with possible correction to our 6000-6500 level.
On the bullish side, bitcoin could breakout from our descending triangle and possibly create higher highs, which is a very bullish sign.
Like the title says, patience is key! we have to follow the market very close.
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Scenarios
S&P 500 possible buy set upThe Price is in its highest level and had retested it twice, so we are expecting it to break it and seek for new highs.
RSI shows overbought levels but could be the confirmation of the ruptura once the candle closes above the resistance.
Another scenario is a pullback and then the Price Will continue the upwards trend.
We should wait for the buy in both scenarios.
Can Ethereum follow Bitcoin? If 320$ price level breaks bullishI think Ethereum price depends on where Bitcoin price goes. First, we need Bitcoin to reach new highs around 11200-11300$ then I think Ethereum will start test the resistance around 320$ (lines up with 0.236 fibonacci level)
If it breaks up, then my next target is around 390-400$, if fails I think Ethereum will retest the support zone. At the moment there is a bearish divergence, but if the RSI can reach a higher high it will become invalid.
BTC NEARING CRUCIAL TIPPING POINTWhen you look at the chart we can see that we are nearing the apex of another triangle. Although we broke bullish this weekend, the chances of the long awaited correction are still there.
IF the triangle is broken and we go below the previous ATH, we can expect a drop to 8100/7900. When the 100MA and 200MA on the daily are broken we can see a drop to even lower levels to around 6700.
WHEN we break bullish we can expect a run up to about 11000, if we manage to break the resistance around 9800. Chances are slim, but looking at the overall market the past few months there is no scenario crazy enough.
This being said, there are two scenario's once again. Looking at the past few month BTC holders are afraid to sell their coin. On the other hand people are keeping on buying like their lives depend on it. We do need to realize that there are a lot of stops in play around 8300. Once these are broken by a stop hunt for instance (happend a lot the past weeks), we can see a dramatic dump due to sell orders activated.
ETHBTC Potential Paths to moon or doomPrice only goes up or down, but the paths it can take are infinite.
To help fight my biases I take a number of potential paths including important zones where price is more likely to stall or bounce.
With ETHBTC the over-all shape since the lows is that of a large flag which could lead to an impulsive break up. The move resulting from this would be powerful, but we don't know when it may happen, so here are some potential scenarios.
A bear break has a similar potential to be a large move.
As always risk management is key.
BTC Scenarios for January '19Today's BTC drop move is very welcomed from a technical perspective because it adds some clarity to the picture.
I have activated a couple of Daily scenarios to be monitored.
First one (orange arrows) would give us some bullish market structure drawing a bottom at around 3400 (Binance).
The second one (teal arrows) assumes a deeper correction back to 2800 area, and start drawing market structure from that point.
I am not (yet) focusing into sub-2000 levels, since that belongs to Weekly based scenarios and would be a consequence of the failure of 2800 area.
BAT/BTC Basic Attention token a Follow-Up, and possible scenarioLast post:
' BATBTC Basic attention token small rebound expected, not rallies'
Written ~3949, later rebounded to ~4200, then to now ~3650
Future scenarios:
Scenario A:
- Supported at ~3600 (Last trend; 50EMA)
- Trough seen in a few days, need to refer to MACD and stochastic
Scenario B:
- Does not find support
- Next stop could be 2600-2800
I hope buying it lower though.
BTC – 4 scenarios to follow in the near futureHi Guys!
BTC is struggling with the lack of an interest thus volume is very low.
We distinguished 4 possible (fulfilling) scenarios in the close future.
The price chart is currently in the middle of the rectangular triangle which is a neutral pattern.
We broke EMA 9 and EMA 21 and what is even more important EMA9 broke EMA 21. This is positive.
We are at the end of the falling wedge which is also bullish but in order to jump up out of this pattern, we need more positive volume.
Speaking of which when looking at the Weis Waves we can clearly see there is no interest. A bit of demand has shown up and no supply. So this
is touch and go and e have to wait for more information and observe this pattern.
We can also distinguish weakly tilted support which might be another level of the support.
MACD looks good as we can see their positive divergence.
Here are 4 possible scenarios
1. The most optimistic one – due to positive info we will have more demand and we will manage to break up the triangle shape which ends up
at $6500 level and we will even go further breaking another resistance at $6600.
2. Neutral one – we will stay in the triangle moving slowly towards $6500 level.
3. Slightly negative – we can mark up weakly tilted support which might be another level of the support. It is possible to stop there but still,
this is below the triangle pattern.
4. Negative – we jump out of the triangle pattern and the break the support down. Anyway, we should stay within falling wedge borders.
So guys, time will tell which scenario will come into effect.
The first info we should get will be as soon as 5th of November.
On Monday SEC will decide whether they postpone their decision regarding ETFs again (most likely) or they will say YES or NO (less likely).
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Possible Bitcoin Scenario's.Bitcoin is currently trading within a very tight range. We've got overhead resistance from our long-term descending triangle or wedge formation depending on how you look at it, and we've got our support trend-line(s) from our previous bottoms and previous support area's that we hit earlier in the year. I believe there is 2 scenario's which could play out here over the next few hours.
1.) Bitcoin moves from its current levels to 6500-6550 before finding resistance and moving back down to test the trend-line(s) around 6200-6250. There is a chance it could break above 6500-6550, I discuss that below.
2.) Bitcoin is unable to sustain its current (albeit limited) upward movement and moves back down to test the trend-line(s) around 6200-6250. There is also a chance it breaks below 6200-6250, and I discuss that below as well.
Based on the 4-hour indicators I have shown, I favor scenario 1 as of right now. MACD on the 4-hour is showing upward movement following a bullish cross on October 12th, and the Squeeze Momentum indicator is showing signs of upward momentum alongside that. RSI is sitting at 48, which is right below the bullish zone indicating it has room to move to the upside if we did some upward price action. I think a test of the resistance zone around 6500-6550 should occur, and if we are unable to break through and have sustained volume and buying around those levels, then we could see a retest of 6200-6250. If we do get a break above that area, 6650 is the next area to watch, followed by 6700, then 6800. For a bullish trend to take place, we need to get above some of the key moving averages (50/100/200 day,) we need to get out of the descending triangle or wedge formation that we are in, we need to make a higher-low, and we need to maintain higher levels of volume throughout any upside action. On the flip-side, if 6200-6250 support (depends on which pattern you look at) is unable to hold, we could see a retest of 5800-6000. If the 5800-6000 area is unable is hold, we could be in for a wild ride down to 4000-4500 (if not lower.)
--This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and come to your own conclusions before buying/investing, as investing in cryptocurrencies comes with high risk and high amounts of volatility.
Neutral - Watch and shoot. 2 potential scenariosI'm currently neutral and watch EURUSD.
LONG:
We could see a continuation of the upward trend on the 1 hour, also supported by the oversold on the RSI - this will see a TP in the red zone TP1.
SHORT:
This is will be the bigger move of the 2 scenarios.
Note the potential double top on the 4 hour chart with two potential TP Targets. Waiting for a break of the 1 hour support line to enter a short trade.
Both scenarios are possible, I am waiting for the market to provide the confirmation of direction.
Bitcoin Long Term Plan - two scenarios After receiving mass hype and exposure, bitcoin topped off at $20000, the same day bitcoin futures starting trading. Since then, bitcoin has been consolidating and forming a massive wedge. Completion of this wedge will indicate which way we can expect price action to swing. Volume has been on a slow and steady decline. The Kujin and 300-day moving average are acting as a strong support. Also, visible range shows that we are in the thick, which means a majority of orders were taken within this range, which means that this area is both the strongest support and biggest resistance. Worst case scenario we complete this wedge and break down to our strongest support at $5000. Best case scenario, we enter a post-consensus bull market and bitcoin breaks right through the wedge and confirms an upward price action. We would then look at our three biggest resistances which are the 200-day moving average, top of the cloud, and the $11750 area. I would expect some struggles around this area but a break above would take us straight to $20000. Other possible scenario, we complete this wedge and slowly form an uptrend. We would then have some liquidation battles at the big resistance and would ultimately watch the move from here. It is best to plan out your trading and all of the possible scenarios that can occur. I personally expect the most bullish scenario to happen, a post-consensus run straight to $20000 while alts moon. However if that doesn't happen, I am still prepared.
DASH - Long term: Multiple ScenariosGreen = Bullish Scenario (Highly Unlikely - approx. 5% chance)
Yellow = Unbiased Scenario (Extremely Likely - approx. 70% chance)
Red = Bearish Scenario (Somewhat Likely - approx. 35% chance)
Dash likes to aggressively spike on the way up and down. Hence, you need to be in the trade before the breakout.
The support and resistance zones, visualized with rectangles, are your accumulation and distribution zones. These levels can be used for ping pong strategies.
As of today, the best trading strategy to trade DASH is to scale your buy orders (give more weight to lower prices), and to stay in the trade until it enters the resistance zone which is your sell target. This will take less than 4 months.
Possible Scenarios for BTC Based on Support and ResistanceSo I have plotted the scenarios for BTC, please note that it has not been accurately plotted for actual times so dates/times may be off but prices and levels are all based on correct support and resistance areas and if we break through each support or resistance point there is secondary scenarios to play out. The most logical right now is if we break through 9200 we are headed to 7000 most likely.
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Ascending broadening wedge - two possible scenariosThis is an interesting move folks; identifying an ascending broadening wedge pattern has the same chance more or less to continue downward or to breakout and go upward. In my opinion, based on the bigger trend's descending triangle wedge, and the minor descending triangle wedge following it (the fib retracements placed on the graph), my bet would go towards the bearish breakout.
What do you guys think?
Below are some interesting facts to use in your strategies:
Bearish breakout
If the wedge’s lower support line breaks, the probability that the price will reverse and continue back up is higher than it falling lower. The odds are close at about 51:49.
Selling at a downward break of the mid line of the pattern greatly improves the odds of success. If the price breaks the mid line of an ascending broadening wedge, there’s a 53% chance that a further downward move will happen.
Bullish continuation
From historical currency data, there is about a 55% probability of a further bullish advancement after a break of the upper resistance line. The bullish move lasts at least for the same duration as the pattern itself.
Based on historical forex data, the ascending broadening wedge typically ends in a bearish or downwards correction in price. But only just.In 47.8% of the patterns, the upside move was greater.
Reference/Read more at:
forexop.com
Four S&P 500 crash scenarios for Q4 2016, potential support 2017After a long battle the bears are gaining control again at the start of earnings season one month before the US election.
The odds for the bulls to hold the red trend line the next weeks are slim and falling, therefore I drew four scenarios how the "S&P 500" might move in the last quarter of the year 2016 and further in the year 2017 after the US election. I suspect one last bounce higher to occur in the next two weeks, which would be a better time to post this bearish chart, but on the big picture as mentioned before I don't see this changing the outlook anymore. This is the reason though why I post this chart as "neutral" and not as "short", because the crash scenarios are not fully confirmed yet with a final bull trap.
Scenario A:
Awesome. A fast but brief drop into support around 2085-2100-2115. Followed by a very strong rally starting in the first quarter of 2017 with rally target 2300 points for the year 2017 (maybe the rally starts even earlier after the US election, after a December FED rate hike).
Scenario B:
A slow choppy but controlled pullback into support around 2015-2030-2045. This scenario also offers the chance of a very strong rally back towards at least 2200 points again in the year 2017.
Scenario C:
A fast chaotic crash below 2100 might find support around 1950-1975-2000 points. Most likely after this large decline the stock market might only move back up to 2150 in the year 2017 to test the resistance there.
Scenario D:
Doom. A massive flash crash due to the lack of liquidity in the market and the burst of the real estate REIT bubble, tech unicorn FANG bubble and the overall ETF market bubble (among many other bubbles which might burst simultaneously as mentioned in the related link "Bubbles everywhere" below).
My original idea from 2 months ago: Bubbles everywhere: Current risks to the US stock market rally
Short on EURJPY // @ 114.800 - 114.880, bearish (multi-scenario)Multiple scenario's drawn out for EURJPY. I myself haven't traded EURJPY a lot, but the orderblocks seem consistently promising at the moment. It could be that the monthly support is going to cause a stronger bounce. The strength of the bounce shouldn't matter. Reconsider your options at every 'crossing' of the arrows representing potential orderblocks. I'm personally going for this green arrow entry as the previous bearish orderblock seems rather significant.
Good luck!
Push it to the Limit - Dow Jones Industrial 25000 points in 2025Thank you "Helicopter Ben" Bernanke, "The Dove" Janet Yellen, "Daruma" Haruhiko Kuroda and "Super Mario" Draghi for pushing it to the limit around the world.
Technical analysis tools used: 1.618 Fibonacci extension and Fibonacci time zones.
Inspiration for the title: Scarface (The lyrics are below)
www.youtube.com
Push it to the limit
Walk along the razor's edge
but don't look down, just keep your head
and you'll be finished
Open up the limit
past the point of no return
You've reached the top but still you gotta learn
how to keep it
Hit the wheel and double the stakes
throttle wide open like a bat out of hell
and you crash the gates
crash the gates
Going for the back of beyond
Nothing gonna stop you
there's nothing that strong
So close now you're nearly at the brink
so, push it
Ooooh yeah
Welcome to the limit
The limit
Take it maybe one step more
The power game's still playing so
you better win it !!!
3 scenarios BreakoutHello friends this are 3 scenario of breakout:
1) (Green) Breakout on strong resistance of disjoint angle that lasts from July
2) (Blue) Breakout on blue support, beat on white and break the strong white resitence
3) (Red) Breakout on white support
Tell me what you think, i would be happy to read advise and why not, compliments.
FX:GBPUSD
NZDCAD outlook LONG TERM trading The pair had a bullish week at moment on the way to Major RES.zone which rejected bulls more than 4 times.
Pitchfork-Fibo Sup.Res. lev. 95.500 / 96.500 as a crucial point.
If we get the 5 attempt at cracking this Crucial Point, a big move to the upside for new higher.
1 Correction and counter-trend bounce.
2 breakout for new high
3 bearish abcd pattern sell zone.
let's see :)
*
BoJ IR Event Based Click-In Scenarios - Updating DailyIf you fancy clicking into events, a good fill on any of the cases identified can provide sustained profit for a few minutes given the amount of volume and institutional order flow in USDJPY anticipating the interest rate decision this Thursday. The market is definitely expecting some relief for yen strength, as Japanese exporters are crying for mercy and Abe + Kuroda have promised some sort of easing, save helicopter money.
The way I see it, a cut to -.2 and/or the unlikely scenario of helicopter money, or something essentially the same in all but name, will validate the bull theory and cause a whip up until around the at least the 107.50 (soft resistance) to 108.00 (strong resistance). A minor cut of -1.5 promotes upward move until the stronger resistance to 107.50 while the unchanged scenario will provide some bearish pressure to the 105 (soft support) to 104 (strong support) levels.
This is purely based on how I have observed this product trading on the interbank FX ladder post Brexit and is subject to change given outsized news promoting dollar strength/weakness prior to the BoJ decision or any remarks by Abe or Kuroda in the upcoming days. I will update price targets and levels below throughout the week accordingly.