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SCMR

Btc shortBitcoins adventure above 19k is over for this time. For anyone who wanted to see this was pure distribution on both occasions price stayed on this level. SCMR is already indicating the trend in red on medium TF and expecting and accelerated move to the downside after this bearish retest of weekly OB. Btc will need to go lower to draw liquidity and re-accumulate for a new push upwards. Likely this will be lower than most expect and will be a very painful experience for over-leveraged longs already having their bags packed for moon mission.
Short
by BitmexDegen
1
Btc longThis is more or less a no-brainer after yesterday drop to 11.100 and massive liquidations (someone filled on those market sells and wants to take profit) plus the fact that short kept piling in. Strong long indication (double arrow) by BB Bot from the band deviation is a signal I'm super confident in, SCMR is supporting this by painting reversal to the upside. Punishing day for shorts coming up, let's see how far it goes. Looking at 11.5xx first and after that weekly open.
Long
by BitmexDegen
Btc short (continued)As expected in the last post Btc we saw continued sell off and Btc broke down from H1 range. Looking at H4 we now a have a bearish retest of the small base above (horiz line) with continued downside expectation from both Better SCMR and BB Bot. Also notice the squeeze of the Bollinger Bands preceeding this move. There is no reason to fully close this short at the moment, just lower stop loss to trail price action. For any serious short squeeze/reversal attempt to the upside I would want BB Bot to put in at least one long (up arrow) signal on this timeframe. I would use Better SCMR to filter out any false positives. For now this looks like we test lower parameter of high time frame range (abt 8.7k) and a break of that would likely send us down to find demand much lower. The liquidity gap down to 7.7k is realistic if that happens, this is where a lot of longs will puke and market sell into long limit orders. In any event I trust BB Bot to give the signal on this timeframe once it bottoms out and builds a new base. A reversal will come with this and confluence by reversal candle (RU) from Better SCMR.
Short
by BitmexDegen
Bearish Bat Pattern off an *Easy* range trade. The support at this level has been impressive, forcing price to trade in a tightening range for more than a week. What's more impressive is the R/R on a long position from this level (however unlikely). I make no apologies for not being a fan of Ripple and wouldn't mind if it just died, but if we get a break out to the upside it should prove to be a dramatic and profitable move. Originally I had been charting a symmetrical triangle on the last two weeks of price action (daily TF) but we've pushed so far to the end of the triangle, I no longer consider it truly valid. More appropriate and safer, is a taking a trade off the "range box" in either direction. Because of the reasons stated above, I'm aiming at a long. A conservative (smart) entry would be taken at a candle close outside the box. An aggressive entry would be taken at our current level with stops at a or below the 'A' point of the bearish bat pattern. My recommendation for a "safe trade" is to wait for the confirmation candle to close outside the box and then enter. If we break below, targets would be previous SCMR Support zones, illustrated by the dots on the chart.
Long
by ninjabenja
3
Stratis looking down the barrel of a bullish GartleyIn the last week, price bounced in-between two SCMR dynamic levels seeking a direction: first off support, then back down from resistance to test and break previous support. This has set us up for possible completion of a bullish Gartley advanced pattern at or near the 'D' point price of 0.00153730 BTC. I could certainly see a panic stab down to the next SCMR support level at .00125797. Recomended conservative trade is a buy in the PRZ with target #1 at previous SCMR resistance near 'B' point of the pattern. Target#2 would be at or near the real candle body previous structure high. Typically we would put our stops below X. Best of luck!
SLong
by ninjabenja
6
Ethereum (ETH): The downtrend that never endsThe chart is the long view on Ethereum, and boy-oh-boy it is hanging on by a thread. Price is trying to make a triple bottom historically and a double bottom of this bear market in the 0.0023-0.0021 range. Every time it tries to breakout it gets rejected at the downtrend resistance. Best guess says that the only people that could be selling this much coin would be either be from the ETH team or Augur’s ICO/IPO ETH wallet is being emptied. This is one more reason to take the safe long versus accumulation of a position. If an entity has a lot of coin they can short the market while selling down a very long way. Considering the EMA, sloping resistance trend, and final support zone are all converging it seems far more prudent to go long after the first green line is surpassed. If the final support does not hold there is noting stopping it from free falling to 0.001, and that is not a long you want to be stuck with. Chart is powered by the SCMR Trends Analysis Suite on Tradingview.com www.coinstreetnews.com
by CoinStreetNews
3
Symmetrical triangle break down looming + Advanced patternsThere is a lot going on in the chart above. The larger pattern (light green) is a symmetrical triangle which will break in the direction of the over-all trend, about 75% of the time. Confirmation will be a daily candle closing either above or below the pattern. Inside the triangle we've got two measured moves AB=CD (green arrows and red arrows) as well as an incomplete Bullish Bat pattern and incomplete Bearish Cypher. Price is threatening to drop out of the triangle which would lead us to expect a price decline to support. Based on the SCMR dynamic levels, that would be near $227 and then $217. If the Bat completes at point D, bullish reversal targets are at .382 and .618 of the distance XA. (See chart in comments for recent example) ... If the Cypher completes, targets are .382 and .618 of the distance XC. For more detailed information on bat patterns go here: www.harmonictrader.com ... For more on Cyphers, go here: youtu.be Target level for trading the symmetrical triangle is drawn from the the first touch on the lower line to the top of the upper line, then that distance is taken as a measured move from where price breaks out of the pattern. In this instance, that would be around the $180 level. ... For more on Symmetrical Triangle patterns, see here: stockcharts.com We've had some real strong bullish opportunities lately and to a one, they've rotted on the vine. On May 4th, the first bitcoin hedge fund (GBTC) went live, trading hundreds over market price for the equivalent of 1 bitcoin, with 1 share being equal to .1 btc. The week of trading which preceded the launch saw only a $19 move up in price. Week of the launch, saw an over-all price decline. We've also now seen a Swedish ETN launch with little to no major movement in market price. Instead, what we're seeing is price beginning to steadily slump.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ninjabenja
9
Long opportunity on Bitstamp & Bitfinex 4hr chartThis chart is Heiken Ashi with SCMR Trends. Long/Buy entry is at a break above the potential bullish reversal candle (blue) with stops below previous candle low. Once the trade is underway, if price action prints a neutral (gray), stops should be moved up to the low of that candle to reduce risk. I might also consider moving stops up to structure around 240 if we break through the double top @ $242. Take profit will be either a cross down of TSI or completion of our advanced pattern, which ever comes first. The set up here is pretty good as far as R/R from our entry. Also, Date Range Forecasting™ (see below) says we need to break 228.77 in the next 4 days, 16hrs- or we should expect higher highs.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ninjabenja
3
SCMR Trend change tradeEdit : If you kept your stop at $251.52 ... then the stab down to $252.50 just stopped you out. Perhaps my T/P level was too ambitious but in all I'm happy with how this trade went. After speaking to SPYderCrusher about this trade he explained, when trading SCMR Trends in this way, it is advised to pay special attention to follow up trend color changes (see below). For example: price spiked to $262.90 (still green bar) and then price immediately pulled back lower to follow with an orange pivot bar. At that point we should have moved our stops to reduce our risk, as the trend was no longer constant green/bullish. Aggressive stop would have gone below the pivot bar low @ $257.64; conservative stop would have gone below the first gray bar low @ $254.80. In both cases we would have been stopped out of the trade, still in profit. See chart posted below. Original : We've crossed up on Stochastic 4hr, SCRM trend changed from neutral (gray) to bullish (printed a "weak" bullish candle, dark green) and we just got the long entry signal by price breaking above the first green "signal" candle. We've already challenged the last dynamic resistance level and I've got a potential t/p on the trade at historic horizontal resistance @ $265, just under the 200 MA (yellow line)... and also aligns with a volume gap. Stops under previous gray candle at 251.52
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ninjabenja
6
Failed Trade.: see below for further analysis. This trade failed largely due to my target being drawn from the wrong place, causing my t/p to be lower than it should have been. Charts have been posted below to illustrate. The symmetrical triangle broke out to the down side with a completion that looks to be around $205. I've been expecting this level for a while and it also lands on top of a 2 week SCMR support zone; so we would expect a decent bullish retrace from that level. If the bearish volume dries up and we actually see a rally from $222 - $220 I'll be watching for the 'D' completion point on this bearish Gartley. My hopes aren't high for the Gartely, but best to keep all options on the table so we can have a plan in place. If you're going to long off any rally, a Short position is advised to be opened at the 'D' completion point near $250. If you're going to take the short trade now in play; T/P would be at or around $205 - $200, trailing stops or buy stops from there for the rebound. My position is short with a stop-loss at about $237.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ninjabenja
9
Descending Wedge Progressing to CompletionI've been watching the weekly candles slowly creep towards our original trendline with a certain amount of skepticism, since the $500 level. The blue trend reversal (indicator from SCMR) was supposed to have signaled our rally into the new bull markt. However, that rally was confirmed failed by November 23th and it was in no uncertain terms, the writing on the wall for bearish continuation. As if to reinforce the obvious, the last major Daily support has failed at $340 and we're now seeing a new 16 week resistance level printing over our heads at $380. This is all despite a fair amount of really good fundamental news with PayPal and Microsoft BTC payment adoption. While I do make my living trading bitcoin (exclusively), I feel I should restate here that I do not profess to be a financial consultant or "an expert on bitcoin, a bitcoin expert." I do however, have *mad ninja skills* and it doesn't take a Satoshi Nakamoto to understand that when more and more large businesses adopt third party bitcoin payment mechanisms (bitpay, coinbase etc.) via immediate BTC to USD exchange mechanisms- it invariably equals increased sell pressure on the market.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ninjabenja
12
Crude Oil - Quarterly Decline 3rd Worst in 24 Yrs, Time For Low?This chart shows USOIL, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures, on a monthly timeframe. Plotted on the chart are our SCMR Dynamic Levels™, which dynamically plot support / resistance zones and are accurate at finding targets. This indicator is available in the TradingView App store under Analysis Suite - SCMR Trends. The BIG QUESTION: Is crude bottoming here? Let's go over what this chart illustrates, and you tell me. -----> The lower pane shows the rolling quarterly returns for Crude, and I colored the plot red whenever the quarterly decline is less than -25%. This current decline, at -39% this quarter, is the third worst in the past 25 years, only eclipsed by 2008 and 1991. -----> Overlaid on the chart itself are red, vertical markers indicating where in a prior quarter the return was less than our -25% threshold, but then in next (current) quarter crossed up through -25%, in other words, *the mean reversion back up has started*. We are still waiting for this event to take place. -----> Dynamic Level Support at $58. Through this level by $3, but may prove to stabilize near it. \\\Conclusion:/// Based on the above, you can surmise that the low is *extremely likely within 1-2 months*. Some may balk at an analysis wherein the time to fruition is +/- 1-2 months, but that is the nature of a 24 yr chart :) . Additional momentum can certainly take us lower than the current price. The 2008 decline took FIVE months before mean reversion started, and we are only on month two currently (which is how I've derived the 1-2 month timeframe for mean reversion to begin -- assuming this is as bad as 2008 for the oil markets). Also note it was the most extreme, and other declines began mean reversion after a scant one month after a 25% quarterly decline. This is a guide not a call, if you catch the subtlety there. After we start the mean-reversion (the red vertical bars overlaid on price) is where I would come out and say a low is in place -- this is still front running that event.
FX:USOIL
by SPYderCrusher
21
GOLD Daily Upside Reversal -- Dynamics Behind a $GLD ReboundThis chart shows GLD, the major ETF proxy for Gold prices, on a Daily timeframe. Plotted on the chart are our SCMR Trends™, which accurately identify price trends and behaviors , and SCMR Dynamic Levels™, which dynamically plot support / resistance zones. Both are available in the TradingView App store. Today is significant because after a lengthy decline in the price of gold, we see an "O" plotted under the today's bar, which shows a "Confirmed Upside Reversal". In breaking down the nuance of this, it's not saying price is in an uptrend yet (though it can certainly end up as one, indicated by green candles) but that the relationships between this bar and previous bars suggests that a reversal has occurred. ---> That makes this bar a good entry with a stop under the current bar low or last blue bar low. I use the Dynamic Levels™ as targets and they are shown as well, 116 - 120 is a good first upside area for this rebound. RISKS: 1.) Possibly that this reversal fails. In that case the software will update with an X, but for all intents, can just use the stop under range low to suggest the reversal is not happening.
AMEX:GLDLong
by SPYderCrusher
7
EURO Decline -- Is it over? NO! No Evidence of Bottom YetThis chart shows EUR/USD, the Euro Currency, on a Weekly timeframe. (NOTE: Updated chart below, accidentally clicked off the Dynamic Levels that were supposed to be in the above chart) Plotted on the chart is SCMR Trends™, which sequences price to find the correct behavior and identify good setups. It is available (along with other indicators in the package) in the TradingView Marketplace App store. The point of this post is to state that on the larger timeframe, the Euro has provided zero evidence that it is done trending down. No -- it is not yet reversing. This is a relevant observation because the conventional wisdom is that the price is oversold -- and yes, it certainly is -- but that currently there is no actual evidence of reversal, so to bet on a longer term reversal here and now is not the right move. We would need more data from the market that suggests a reversal is actually underway (such a Blue unconfirmed reversal or an "O" plotting under price, a confirmed reversal). This may come to pass sooner than I expect, but the important thing is that it's not happening now. Looking in the past, the Euro was in an uptrend and provided several good signals from confirmed reversals up ("O" under price) and the Pivot bars ("P" above price). Today though, all we see is red (a downtrend). My take is that the market can trend lower for several more weeks before a true low (which is still theoretical at this point). ------------- Let's look briefly at the economic and fundamental reasons for this move. 1.) EU recession. Recent data from the ECB shows that Eurozone has negative growth. The ECB is not allowed to print -- only issue bonds -- so there is a *huge* cost incentive to weaken the Euro to boost demand for these bonds, especially if they are settled in dollars. 2.) The other side of the coin is that a weaker currency can help boost foreign investment, which adds demand to a stagnating economy. Both of these reasons, structurally and politically are why I believe the strong Dollar and weak Euro can persist longer than many expect. RISKS: 1.) Perhaps the ECB will change its tune. I doubt this 4.) Not a recommendation to buy or sell, just an example the ways in which you can combine structural fundamental analysis with price action, which while oversold, is not yet actually indicating a reversal (even if only temporarily).
by SPYderCrusher
17
SCMR Analysis Suite Product REVIEW - live in the TV App Store!It's been a while since I've been able to publish any trade setups or ideas, but let me assure you... it was worth the wait and you wont be disappointed. This chart illustrates the newest system to grace the TV app store, "Analysis Suite - SCMR Trends" and how I used it to dominate this H&S trade setup... and basically every other trade I've taken in the last two months. It will be a staple of all my published charts going forward so it only makes sense that I give you a run down on what you'll be looking at. It is unquestionably the best thing to happen to my trading since candlestick charts. The H&S trade setup was pretty obvious, although I don't know that many took it (if at all) with the same confidence that I did. You can see how I determined my target levels- pretty standard: Distance from peak of the "head" to the "neckline" , drawn as measured moves from the peak of the right shoulder (target #1) and then from the neckline itself (target #2). The "SCMR Dynamic Levels" plot clearly identifiable support and resistance areas. By definition they are dynamic, meaning they *can* move, be pushed or be erased by follow up price action. However, the algorithm which plots them does so based on known market supply and demand levels, eliminating the guess work regarding strength and location. Monthly levels are stronger than weekly; weekly stronger than daily, etc. In this chart, the Dark Red circles are the monthly dynamic resistance and the smaller Pink/Red circles are the weekly. When price broke the neckline that was my signal to get short. But where to do it now that it's already happened? I never chase price, so I waited for my entry, which as you can see came when we pulled right back into the weekly resistance level (about $394), where I entered short with zero hesitation. Price tanked and I was making BTC hand over fist. My target #1 was tapped, but not filled then price started ranging. Is it reversing? Will it continue going up?? The candles were all over the place and largely gray (signalling indecision) but all guess work gone when the new Dynamic level had printed resistance and we broke out of the range to the down side. With the "SCMR Trends", The candles change color indicating trend, trend strength and helps to alert you to trend change so you don't miss the trade entry or exit. The "SCMR B2B" helps to qualify or disqualify trend changes and reversals so you're less likely to get left holding the bag on a fake-out. The last Blue reversal candle is where this trade ended. I had already achieved my exit level but waited for confirmation in the form of the reversal candle to close my short for target #2, giving me maximum profits and not leaving anything on the table by closing early. Full disclosure: I am *not* being paid or compensated for promoting this product or this system. I was given a demo copy for review prior to official release and all of the above analysis was based on that less refined "beta" version. The SCMR suite comes highly recommended and is an extremely high quality product that I encourage you to explore. The value is self evident. If you have questions send a PM to @SPYdyerCrusher or click on the "Indicators" button at the top of your chart and find "SCMR Analysis" under Marketplace Add-Ons. ~Cheers!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ninjabenja
7
$SPY - Huge V-Shaped Rally, New All Time Highs - Now What?This chart shows SPY, the major ETF proxy for the S&P500 index, on a Daily timeframe. Plotted on the chart are our SCMR Trends™, which sequences price to find the correct behavior, and SCMR Dynamic Levels™, which dynamically plot support / resistance zones. Both are available in the TradingView App store. Following a confirmed reversal on Oct 20th (see "O" under price there), the market has continued the trend of the past 15 months by rallying in a straight line to new highs. Although the reversal was easy to spot, the relentless run now creates a (familiar) problem: Do you chase up here? My take is that the market is more likely to go rangebound after such a strong advice but I do not yet see evidence of a new material decline on the horizon. How to plan for the next steps? For short term traders, 2 days - 1 week horizon: 1.) Two former Dynamic Supply™ areas and one recent demand area are plotting under price in a range of $196 - 199, so I strongly expect some demand there on a dip. This is a good entry because of what I consider the adverse scenario. Choppy market. This should be near a range low, at least on the first try of the level. 2.) According to SCMR Trends™, price is currently painted green, so if it wasn't obvious already, the price is in a strong uptrend. Strong uptrends rarely roll over and die, usually you get at least one chance to buy a dip. RISKS: 1.) A new material bad news event can change risk appetite, so the dip or range may be smaller than expected. 4.) Not a recommendation to buy or sell, just an example of how to use the indicators to tackle a common problem in today's market where everything is a V-shaped rally to new highs. Other Notes: 1.) Both Sector (Industrials) and Sub-sector have been very bullish, so the market of stocks as they say is generally healthy up here 2.) Large Caps as an asset style and Nasdaq have been outperforming. 3.) The most bearish scenario I can think of is this new high is a trap, then we reverse into a range. Given that Nasdaq is way above the highs, it lends to support to a dip buy rather than a breakdown (as in, SPY in the range will coincide with QQQ ranging above old highs which is still bullish)
AMEX:SPY
by SPYderCrusher
12