Jumping S-curvesIn this post, I will explain what jumping S-curves means and how you can identify potential S-curves before they jump .
First, let's begin with the chart above (also copied below).
This is a yearly chart of McKesson Corporation (MCK), a medical supplies company.
As you can see in the chart below, this stock has been soaring over the past year despite most other stocks being significantly lower.
Here is the performance of the S&P 500 over the same time period.
Whenever I see something highly unusual in a chart, such as extreme outperformance, I check the higher timeframes to see what's driving price on a technical level. Below is the yearly chart for MCK.
When I examine price action over a long time period, I always log adjust my chart. Below is the log-adjusted chart.
Upon seeing this chart I immediately knew what was going on: the stock price jumped S-curves. I will try to illustrate below how I reached this conclusion.
To begin, I drew Fibonacci levels from the last reaction low to the last reaction high on the yearly timeframe.
The previous reaction low was the bottom of 2008 because that bottom was a Fibonacci retracement of some earlier reaction high, the reaction high is the top in 2015 because price did not surpass that high without first undergoing a Fibonacci retracement (to the golden ratio).
As you can see above, from 2015 to 2018 the price retraced down to the golden ratio (0.618) on the yearly chart. It is often from this retracement level that the base of the second S-curve is created. (For simplicity, I only included the 0.618 Fibonacci level on the chart).
Some may say that this pattern is merely a bull flag or pennant. (See chart below)
Indeed, bull flags and pennants can be another way to visualize S-curve jumps.
Whereas, on a deeper, more mathematical level, S-curve jumps are logarithmic spirals (approximated as Fibonacci spirals or Golden spirals). If you wish to delve deeper into logarithmic spirals, including the Golden spiral, you can check out this Wikipedia page: en.wikipedia.org
These Fibonacci or Golden spirals are present on mostly every chart and they appear on mostly every timeframe (hence they are fractal ).
One of the best charts you can use to visualize these spirals is the chart of Bitcoin. Below are charts of Bitcoin which attempt to show the endless fractal nature of Fibonacci spirals (or "S-curve jumps").
I've only illustrated a few of the spirals, but indeed there are numerous spirals. (I tried to do my best using the tools on Trading View to draw these spirals, but it can be quite hard to manipulate the curves perfectly to price action.)
One may ask what about when price falls? That is obviously not an S-curve jump since the price is falling.
Actually, when price is crashing it is usually just an S-curve jump, or Fibonacci spiral, on the inverted chart.
Although I have not tested it with scientific rigor, I do hypothesize that Bitcoin's price movement is a series of infinitely fractal and competing Fibonacci spirals on various timeframes, including Fibonacci spirals on inverted scales. Price movement can be thought of as an infinite series of S-curve dilemmas where infinitely fractal S-curves, including those of which are inverse S-curves, compete to govern the next price move.
Each dilemma is resolved when an S-curve reaches its inflection point, such that it governs price movement and price moves rapidly in that direction until it approaches capacity and faces its next dilemma.
Those who know Calculus may recognize this chart. Indeed this is the graph of a logistic function. The mathematical terminology for an "S-curve" is sigmoid function .
Here are some more interesting charts of S-curves (none of which is intended to be investment advice)
Meridian Bioscience (VIVO) jumps S-curves on its yearly chart
The U.S. Dollar Index jumps S-curves on its yearly chart
The entire price action of Chinese EV Company (NIO) is an S-curve that just completed a perfect golden ratio retracement
Japan's faces a population S-curve dilemma
Citigroup underwent S-curve growth up until the Great Recession.
Then it crashed or underwent S-curve growth on the inverted chart.
In summary, price movement involves an endless series of S-curves or Fibonacci spirals. Identifying an S-curve on a high time frame before it reaches its inflection point and breaks out can lead to tremendous gains (among the most lucrative gains one can realistically make in the financial markets).
Scurve
F bullish hammer on daily at the bottom of the S curve restCatching the bottom of the rest of S curve on daily F. A bit concerned about the volume spike (should be low) and earning coming up. The rest is cool.
**Update** $BTC #Bitcoin Inversion Curve ✅ (1W Chart)This is an update on a previous chart, showing the logarithmic regression of $BTC. So far, it seems to actually be holding up pretty strongly with a strong holding of support around $17.5K as expected, were this theory to play out correctly. For anyone who's unfamiliar with my theory, it's that the slow regression of $BTC returns will actually invert, creating a rare "s-curve" formation. Plotting the regression curve, using both the exact highs and the exact lows, you can see that the curves will meet sometime in 2026. This shows that one of those regression curves will need to be broken in order to continue price movement. IMO, there are 2 options here. Either $BTC truly is a bubble and crashes down to nothing (not my belief), or the upper regression curve is broken. In the case of the upper regression curve being broken, this would possibly invert the curve and ~13 years of price suppression will be lifted. This could lead to an insanely strong, fast rally, far above the $100K milestone/dream every investor has these days. To plot this inversion, I have used the exact lows following the 2017-2018 blow-off-top, as this is when the majority of mainstream adoption seems to have occurred. As of today this "inversion-curve" has supported a new low of $17,592.78. A close below $18,400 would possibly invalidate this curve, however. I personally believe the overall theory to be correct, however the exact "inversion-curve" that could be charted out may be subjective.
*This is based off of my interpretation of chart data. This is not financial advice.*
Parabolic SymmetryBLX 3M. ^10 charts only over here.
A bottom here near $6.8K fits beautifully.
Bullish fibonacci levels.
We could very well be living through the most important time in bitcoin history.
1:1 is pretty high up there. Whoa.
Could be.
.. Just an idea.r
🚨🚀💩Which Scenario Seems More Likely For $BTC?#Bitcoin has been following the same regression curve since its conception. If it's to be believed that this curve will truly last forever, then #Bitcoin will also just be hurling towards its inevitable death spiral down to zero. While there are probably a select amount of people that still think this is possible, I personally don't subscribe to that theory. This means that $BTC will have to break out of this curve. If that happens, the highly sought after "S-curve" may occur, bringing on some very extreme, exponential growth for the price. The dotted, upwards-trending curve shows the possible price support that may shift this curve to invert the regression. An accurate bounce off of this yellow curve may just signal the inversion of the curve.
**This is all my own personal opinion, based on chart data. This is not financial advice.**
Mega Long BTC S Curve (update)I do believe that this is THE cycle.
I believe the 2017 run was a runt for a couple reasons, including the S curve adoption theory, ICO craze, & hard fork drama.
After this cycle I believe the percentage gains will decrease as adoption reaches mainstream levels and volatility settles down.
It will still be a goldrush as the whole world races to stack sats all the way up to $10M Bitcoin and beyond.
It will be very interesting to see the changes in the world over the next ten years because of this technology.
Bitcoin IS world war 3. It's already happening. Hyperbitcoinization.
Mega Long BTC S Curve S Curve bitcoin adoption.
Demand doesn't have to grow anymore for price to continue exponential growth.
Supply is diminishing at current demand.
It's not unlikely that 2017 was a stunted cycle in the early phase of an S curve adoption cycle of this nascent technology.
In this chart I am predicting a roughly $100 Trillion market cap by 2030. I believe with diminishing supply and increasing demand it would only take a small fraction of $100T to bring BTC to those valuations. I believe that less than $10T invested into Bitcoin can pump the market cap to those valuations. I do believe that can and will happen in less than 10 years. I do believe that we still have larger percentage increases ahead of us than we saw in the last cycle.
The emerging Bitcoin economy will foster a new type of banking industry with free market interest rates. At a certain point in hyperbitcoinization people will realize they no longer need or want to sell their bitcoin for material items they want/need. With free market, sound money, over-collateralized banking, Bitcoin hodlers will be able to earn 10-25% interest on their Bitcoin. People will no longer need to rampantly speculate on risky stocks with astronomical PE ratios, when they can loan their own Bitcoin out at a "PE Ratio" of 4-10 with negligible risk. Conversely if the hodler is looking for a loan, they will be able to use their Bitcoin as collateral and receive a fiat loan to purchase a home/vehicle/etc while keeping their Bitcoin.
Imagine the supply/demand dynamics when virtually nobody is willing to sell their Bitcoin but literally everybody wants it.
Hopefully at that point we will have forgotten about "unit bias", or in other words preferring to own an arbitrary "whole coin" rather than preferring to own something more valuable. We will be able to look at even a million dollar bitcoin as a means of safely storing our value, even if it's only a few hundred or a few thousand dollars of value that we are looking to store in the form of a few thousand satoshis.
While literally everyone will benefit from this sound money system, those who buy Bitcoin earliest will reap the most benefit.
