SQQQ is rising today LONG
SQQQ trended down the last two days of last week and especially Friday as the technology stocks surged
Yesterday had price consolidation and generally less trading volumes. I believe that
SQQQ will bounce at this level. It is supported by a cross above the POC line of the volume
profile. Under that line is the stop loss while the target is 17.95 at last week's pivot high
The relative volume void above 17.3 suggests that price may have great movement once
getting over that level. A confirmatory MACD line cross sets the reversal .
SDOW
$DJI warnings signs but not all is darkGood Morning!!!
Let's dissect a few things.
The DJ:DJI is showing warning signs on the Weekly Chart:
Money has been leaving.
Harder to see on a daily so showing on weekly.
RSI is also weak.
Daily
The DOW is trading under shorter term moving avgs.
The RSI is at an important juncture, 50.
$ flow almost under 0.
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There are some positives to the DJ:DJI :
There is an Inverse head & shoulder pattern. Although this pattern is better @ calling lows. Of course, if it holds the 38.5k Support Level.
37.5k & 37k would be the next support areas before the retest of the MAJOR SUPPORT level, which is the old all time highs.
Sell in May go away?
Still bullish but weak spot for the average.
SPY correction continues & another earnings season begins SHORTSPY on a 120 minute chart uptrended from October into late March. A standard Fibonacci
retracement for this trend down could take it down to the 475 range or about another 10%.
Current price is under the daily SMA 50 ( blue line) at 495 and could continue to fall into the
SMA 100 ( green line) which is confluent with the Fibonacci retracement level. Deep support of
the daily SMA200 ( red line) representing more than a 50% retracement is at the 450 zone.
Megacap technology earnings upcoming may lead the way down or cause a consolidation for
a reversal. April will likely be a big red month. April showers bring May flowers?
SPY falls out of its channel on geopolitical risk SHORTSPY on the 2H chart shows the past six months of trend. SPY has been in an ascending channel
but fall out of the channel. Iran's ambition to retliate against Israel and the movement of US
NAVY warships into the the Middle East raises concerrn as does "sticky inflation" and early
earnings reports from big banks. On the chart, trend angle analysis suggests the SPY may be
topping or correcting its ascend. The shorter VWAP line are more flat than the longest VWAP
line. I see this as impetus to further implement my hedging strategy with conviction and
discipline. I can easily appreciate that SPY could pullback to 490 ( the middle anchored VWAP
line) and easily could pullback into 465 as a standard Fibonacci retracement. Obviously
fundamentals can trump technicals. Geopolitical risk is significant can easily trump both of
them. I find good cause to hedge with inverses of ETFs of the indices and inverse ETFs for
technical stocks, and perhaps banks, financial stocks and bonds as a means to buffer any fall
my long positions moving forward.
Bearish Hedging Strategy LONG inverse ETFsThe idea is shown on this 120 minute. With the new sticky inflation data, the writing is on the
wall. Likely the rate cut will be kicked down the time road. When is in consideration may be
a rate hike in the meanwhile. Mortgage rates unchanged makes the banks suffer. Loan
applications are down. Treasuries are being affected. So are tech stocks that have a growth
perspective as a fundamental basis for anticipated futures growth propelling share price.
This hedging idea is a way to survive or even thrive in a chaotic and volatile market
environment and a means to treat an overload of bullish bias with an antidote of sorts.
RSI & Money Flow comparison to other time periodsMarkets may remain irrational for an extended period of time. This can happen even when data conflicts.
For the moment on the daily TVC:DJI :
RSI is weakening.
$ Flow is lower, but it is stable.
Buys slightly outpace the sells since Mid January.
(Only weekly is shown here. Pls see our profile for more information)
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Things change a bit when seen on weekly data. Daily they seem weak but weekly there's 2 things of importance.
Weekly TVC:DJI RECENT indicators show that RSI & $ flow seem OKAY.
Let's compare them to years past.
Compared to 2021:
RSI is lower
$ FLOW same
Compared to 2017 + 2018:
Both indicators are MUCH LOWER!
(makes sense as it takes a lot more $ to move things around as indices and prices are higher)
Showing 2 previous examples, blue boxes) as no market is identical.
But, seeing the past we may get enlightenment to PREPARE for any outcome that may ensue.
AMEX:SDOW AMEX:UDOW
QQQ is sick more fed news on Friday Short StrategyQQQ is here on a 30-minute chart showing its pivot down from a near-term high in a descending
regression channel. Advanced RSI and MACD indicators are used to better pinpoint short entries
in this downtrend especially with put options contracts with expirations every other day.
Greed has turned to fear. Those equipped with experience and risk management can capitalize
now to build capital for when the bull run resumes.
SDOW a Dow Shorting ETF Long from an Intermediate Term BottomSDOW has leveled off at a near-term bottom after a downtrend as confirmed by bullish
divergence on the RSI and MACD while the price went sideways in consolidation.
Volatility has contracted as have trading volumes. I see this as a buying
opportunity with a stop loss of 20.5 below the low pivot in consolidation and the first
target at 22 underneath a standard retracement with the final target at 25 in the area of
the early November pivot high. A call option set at a strike of $22 expiring in 4-7 months
is a supplement to the idea. I expect that interest rate fades or any lessening of geopolitical
tensions may affect things throughout the trade and perhaps force trade management along the
way. Overall, I have an expectation of 18% for the shares and about 100% for the call option.
DIA DOW ETF ShortDIA tracking the DOW widely in an ETF format on the two hour chart had a 7% rise in the
past month which was widely followed in the investment media. I believe that it was a bull
trap. In the past week price action has been sideways while the Stochastic RSI shows
bearish divergence as does the zero lag MACD. Tradign Volumes has fallen off since
burst of buying volume in mid and late November which pushed the price up 7%.
In the past week, relative volatility has fallen off in general and now negative volatility
exceeds positive. I believe that this is a top for the time being. A short position will be
taken of 10 shares with a stop above the top at 363 The target is 342 just above the POC
line, where high liquidity and volatility will return as long positions, would pile back in there
and get a bounce or even a squeeze. This would be about a reward of 8 for a risk of 2, which
seems reasonable. I will however take a 1/3 partial at 350 where the Fibonacci retracement
comes into play. The SDOW ETF would be another way to play this idea.
$DJI leading stocks BUT at a major resistance level atmOn the flip side...
DJ:DJI is pumping today & leading.
The industrial is at a major resistance level & pushing through, for the moment at least.
AMEX:DIA hasn't been able to trade above this area for almost 2 years!
How will it handle it this time?
Weekly RSI hasn't been much higher than current level since mid 2021.
#stocks AMEX:UDOW AMEX:SDOW
$DJI at do or die!!!This is where we see how serious the decline in DJ:DJI is.
AMEX:DIA has not been this oversold since March of this year.
2nd Pic:
Right side = 15minute chart
The lower part shows the Relative Strength = RSI
At the moment is shows some positive divergence, higher lows as index falls.
This is the battle ground!!!!!!!
Keep in mind that the index has taken a ton of damage technically which is NOT good longer term. At least for now.
#stocks AMEX:UDOW AMEX:SDOW
$DJI broke Head & shoulder & long term trend yesterdayDJ:DJI broke the head & Shoulder pattern on daily charts. However, the volume was not heavy.
AMEX:DIA also broke the up trend from the bottom in 2022
SERIOUS DAMAGE has been done the last 30 days.
We can get a bounce here BUT being Friday, not sure.
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The previous MONTHLY BEARISH moving avg crossover on the DJ:DJI happened in June 2008. We all know that year.
The RSI in 2008 showed clear Negative Divergence & it formed a Doji (cross) at the top.
2008 bear > 14k - 7 = 50%
CV bear market > 30k - 18K = 40%
2022 bear market > 36 - 28 = 22%
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Using AMEX:DIA as it resembles DJ:DJI pretty decently
IF 2021 was the top, looking more & more likely as:
RSI did not move strongly
2021 showing Negative Divergence
AND the recent rally was SUPER WEAK!
(wanted to see a stronger relative strength)
But rates can now be dropped & they can come and save the day. Very likely scenario in 2024.
$DJI also forming symmetrical triangleOriginally worked on this 4hours ago
DJ:DJI is also at the 2022/2023 trendline.
It's also formed a Symmetrical Triangle - see previous TVC:NDQ post .
Daily, the RSI broke the downtrend but it completely fizzled.
Weekly, the RSI is holding above the 50 area BUT it is testing it.
IF it breaks this 50 area we will likely have more downside.
Monthly, STILL Above the short term averages since crossing bullish in 2010.
#DJI #Stocks
$DJI looking good but OMINOUS longer term pattern emergesGood Morning!
Since the call on DJ:DJI , it has been up & adding some more today.
Within 2 weeks AMEX:DIA is going to break down OR it will continue it's longer term up trend.
Bulls like this current action.
HOWEVER, there is an ominous pattern forming on longer term charts.
A Rising Wedge pattern tends to be BEARISH.
Not coincidental that the peak is very close to the all time highs on $DJI.
(Not shown here, pls see profile for more info)
Monthly AMEX:DIA has been trending inside it PERFECTLY!
It's going 2b an interesting end of year
Coincidentally, the pattern resolves in December.
$DJI reached 1k+ point drop & 1st target levelGood Morning!
TVC:DJI reached the level that we called for, the 1k point drop we spoke about.
Now what?
Coincidentally, the index is slight oversold.
#FED can only fight #inflation, it cannot nor will it tame it.
If it insists it will hurt #economy. But, they've been saying they know this!
Since they began to raise we made it clear, they're going to break something, but what?
Stocks still struggling - $SPX copying late 2021?The risk in #stocks is still not to the upside.
Took a trade before this rally, but that's it, a trade, already done too.
Lower low today, still expect to be positive for the day, but until we get some sort of reversal, the risk is still to downside. TVC:DJI AMEX:UDOW
NASDAQ:NDX is trying to find a bottom but here's not best place. Very light support.
CBOE:SPX looks weakest of the 3.
We could very well be doing what happened in late 2021. One last hurrah & then kaput.
$DJI has been weak, can it keep going lower?We almost called top on the #indices.
DJ:DJI AMEX:DIA
Daily
Few days ago stated that it could drop 1k points.
Weekly
Yellow areas are the best risk reward entries, for a bounce or if we continue higher.
Monthly
Choppy action is 100% normal since 2018 (Only after CV crash it went straight up). This was not the norm prior to 2018. Usually had few months of up or down patterns.
#stocks AMEX:UDOW AMEX:SDOW
$DJI is at do or die hereDAILY
TVC:DJI is really struggling to hold the green moving avg. (see profile for more info)
#Dowjones RSI is holding the 50 area - Yellow Box.
NOW, pay close attention
IF they break we're looking at likely trendline retest, white line.
That's where the possible 1k point drop idea comes from, mentioned yesterday.
Weekly support, Red Mov Avg, shows another view for the possible, roughly, 1k point drop for the Dow.
#stocks AMEX:DIA AMEX:UDOW AMEX:SDOW
$DJI looking good & likely maintains the momentumTVC:DJI has had one weekly CLOSE above 34.4k since April 2022 & another on Friday. of last week.
Daily, the issue is a close above 34.6k.
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Notice the heavy volume on the down days?
All, except one day has been a solid bottom.
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The Ascending Triangle forming likely means that we have MORE upside on the Dow Component.
AMEX:DIA AMEX:UDOW #stocks AMEX:SDOW
SDOW a triple leveraged ETF shorts the DOWSDOW is shown here on a 30 minute chart current rising above a parallel descending channel
which is within a longer trend of a downward-facing megaphone pattern where it is currently
situated near the top of the megaphone. I have drawn the two trendlines onto the chart
and added an RSI indicator. My plan is to take a short trade on SDOW by looking for an entry
on the 5 minute time frame where the HA candles are red and the RSI has dropped below
50. I will set the stop loss above the resistance trendline while targeting the support
trendline at the low of the pattern.
UDOW a triple leveraged ETF of the DOW indexUDOW is shown here on the 30-minute chart rising over the past month in an ascending
parallel channel. The chart shows the price currently situated near to the bottom of
the channel which is the support trendline drawn onto the chart with the resistance
trendline as well. My trading plan is I will take a long trade of 50 shares with a stop loss
immediately below the support trendline. I see a targets as $ 62 and $ 65 making for
a very favorable reward for the risk taken. For the entry, I will use the 5- minute chart
and enter when the HA candles are green and the RSI is above 50. I realize that the DOW
has less volatility than the S & P or NASDAQ but with that is less overall risk of reversals
and pullbacks. I tend to take higher-risk trades but see this as having a balancing effect
in my overall portfolio.
$DJI back at this area, now what? DJ:DJI has had issues in this area many times before
Getting overbought, been here a few times in 2023
1 Jan - Feb RSI Neg divergence took entire month to work out
2 RSI was already rolling over when it peaked
3 RSI is again in this area & the 4Hr chart doesn't look like the RSI is weakening, interesting
See volume where rally started?