SPY is gonna crater - NVDA was the sign like Cisco and Enron!Besides the TTM squeeze being fired off - I've seen some hedgies go to cash, PLUS I'm seeing huge dark pool buying for 2x and 3x BEARISH SPY ETF's. I bought some $11 SPXS puts for .07 a piece as a hedge. There was a ton of OI in those calls...
Links to dark pool buying in the comments.
SDS
SPY: I favor a another wave down soonFrom the daily chart you can see we are still in an intermediate down trend with the current price very near the down trend line. Also there was a recent gap down starting at 399.4. Price action seems to love to close gaps. I guess it is just fun to do. And we are just a 1 point from closing the gap. There are currently potential negative reversals in the daily and hourly RSI's ( dashed lines.) Put together this suggests to me another wave down is just ahead.
Remember all such analysis is imperfect so wait for price action to support this idea. You then can use the most recent high as your stop is price then reverses.
Ifffff this count is correct the wave down would be a 3rd wave or a C wave both of which can at times be fast and furious.
Hope this is helpful. Have a great week. Finally thank God for Martin Luther King for all his courage to improve the USA.
SHORT S&P 500 to 4000.Recent drop below Trendline support and Major Horizontal support at 4548 as well as Break below EMA 39.
EMA 39 acting as Resistance now. as well as down trendline (dotted yellow lines)
The run up in Nov-Dec 2021 was a pretty classic Wycoff Distribution as Green candles formed higher highs with smaller and smaller Buying volume. Notice that the Red candles started getting bigger and bigger and as they did the volume of the selloff increased.
Recent Low had one Large Red Candle with very high volume. This was quickly bought up as a rally ensued to the down trendline and EMA 39. I described this EXACT scenario likely playing out in another posted idea except that I expected the rally to occur over a few more weeks. Also notice the Doji candle of indecision with Lower and Lower volume on the recent rally higher and higher over last 4 days. This suggests less and less Demand again.
So, Less and less demand and interest in carrying higher prices while also meeting dual overhead resistance suggest lower prices.
Here we have a great setup for a SHORT in my opinion and I entered 2 SHORTS today via QID and SDS Long positions at $17.91 and $37.94 respectively.
I am expecting this to trade down to 4000 on S&P 500 which happens to be dual support of Horizontal support and MAJOR Trendline Support dating back to April 2020.
We need to watch Volume as it approaches these levels of support for diminishing sell pressure and increasing BUY Pressure. This occurring at support zones will suggest time to cover this short.
Trade what you see.
Cardano breakoutIs this a Cardano breakout? Oddly enough this is the day the antistructure bill was passed and I was expecting it to tank? yet went from 1.50 to 1.58 the day of?
SDS Breakout 52 New High With VolumeDAILY 25/3/2021 :
Breakout : 52 Weeks New High
Market Stage : Uptrend
EMA : Price > Ema20 > Ema50 > Ema200
Breakout Volume : 7x times
Trading Breakout Value : Rm23 juta
Weekly 22/2/2021 :
Breakout : 52 Weeks New High
Market Stage : Uptrend
EMA : Price > Ema20 > Ema50 > Ema200
Breakout Volume : 3.7x times
Trading Breakout Value : Rm39 juta
SDS has been trading above its upward sloping 20-Day Moving Average which is a good sign. In addition, the price just broke the resistance of 0.31 reinforcing the bullishness in the recent price movement. This breakout was accompanied by a higher than average traded volume which shows the enthusiasm of the traders to push the price higher and past this resistance hence giving a higher probability of a successful breakout.
SPX - Best Case SetupAfter a rise or fall in the market, I'm always looking for the three week test of a high or low to provide a launch pad to a trend change. As such, this week is expected to drift along with next weeks action being the true test of the closing lows. Since there is some tail (see circle area) the following week sometimes drifts into this area before moving to close the week higher.
With this setup in mind, what most often happens is that this week would close pretty much close to last week's closing price. I'll be looking for this little rally to add more to the down side. I am using SDS to play the down move. (2X play).
It's possible that we can get a big rally, that would be a B wave. More on that forthcoming should we successfully test the lows next week. I am hunkering down though for a move to the 2,000 level, my initial 50% retracement mark of the entire move from 2009.
SDOW breaching this wedge soonLooks like a huge descending wedge, seems like they're going to continue to push the Dow higher, but I personally don't see much more room to run past 28500. I like the 3X weighting on this position for a short play to hedge against any downturn. I do believe we may head to higher highs and push this market through Q1, but I'm not confident we can keep it afloat much longer. I also like SDS against the S&P