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SDS

S&P 500: The Bear just opened the door The daily up correction trend line was broken today. Based on shorter term patterns I took my first short position, about 1/3 of what longer term I Hope to have. As you know most “gaps” are closed within a short time period except for so called “opening” gap. Usually it’s hard to know it was an opening gap til much later. For me personally when there is a fairly extexted trend ,then there is a gap that break the trend line and isn’t closed intraday I think there is a good chance it is an opening gap; ie a sign of trend reversal. Which we had today. The next sign will be taking out the previous daily low (horizontal dotted line). Process your way. Best to ya.
SP:SPXShort
by goodguy
SPY: Short term view and RgMov readingsThis is an example of how you can trade the SPY setup using RgMov and CCI signals. The strategy is to sell overbought rallies after RgMov puts on a new 44 bar low, until it makes a new 44 bar high, and viceversa. Specifics of entry and exit are reserved for my trading course students naturally, but you can obtain some tips from Tim West's publications on the subject. To use these indicators you need to acquire the 'Key Hidden Levels' indicator pack though. To me it's clear we can look to long SDS when SPY gets overbought in this timeframe, and we get signs of weakness. That would be cheaper than shorting SPY directly, but mostly good for short term operations. Multiple timeframes are giving bearish signals here, so I think the sell side is the safest one right now. Although, I expect to see frequent pullbacks on the way down, unless we really see a sharp decline next week. Keep an eye on the post G20 meeting activity after the weekly open, and specially after Labor day in the US. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:SPYShort
by IvanLabrie
2
Unapologetically BearishA series of events took place causing me sit back and contemplate market participants (in)sanity. First, it is known that I've was one of the first to stick my neck out and tell it how it is – the U.S. Is facing a recession in 2016 – last April. Soon after, various investment banks flirted with the potential but gave the very realistic situation very low probability of happening. Needless to say, critics (unfortunately those that “manage” money) have come out to chastise the recession call, which is not backed up hard data but backed subjectively by a rally in equity prices. They repeat the mantra “don't fight the Fed.” Unfortunately, we've already witnessed the carnage bred from the same ignorant complacency as equity markets halve themselves twice in less than 15 years. Secondarily, last Friday, I watched Mark Zandi, Moody's chief economist, in conjunction with CNBC reporter Steve Liesman, say that the data depicting the sad state of economic affairs was wrong and that we should simply follow the non-farm payroll numbers. Whoa! This is a classic case of narrative over fact. But, lets look at key economic data points that have already hit cycle highs and rolled over: Key Data Point Post-Great Recession Peak, YoY % Non-Farm Payrolls First Quarter, 2015 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Third Quarter, 2015 Real Consumption First Quarter, 2015 Agg. Private Sector Wages & Income Fourth Quarter, 2014 Retail Sales and Food Servicess Third Quarter, 2011 Business Sales Second Quarter, 2010 Business Inventory-to-Sales Ratio First Quarter, 2016 (Cycle High) ISM Manufacturing PMI Fourth Quarter, 2009 Additionally, all is not well in the corporate sector. Last month, market participants saw corporate profits drop 8.4%, nearly 3x more than expected and the third quarter in a row. Furthermore, profits for all of 2015 fell 5.1 percent - the largest drop since 2008. This is much higher then the .6 percent decline the year before. Mainstream economists don't forecast a looming recession, but when have they ever? Every recession since the early 1980's began with growth above one percent. In 2007, growth expansion was at 1.87 percent, only .13 percent lower than it was in 2015. When one steps back from market nuances and models for potential of all risks, not only does the picture become more clearer but the ability to adjust when needed becomes more simpler. In " SPX Pullbacks Are Volumeless, Stay the Course ," I pointed out the lackluster conviction of the equity rally. This still remains the case. Those that "don't fight the Fed" will be sorely disappointed when the only volume swarms in on the elevator drop. Notice that price action and accumulation on SPY hit a wall and appears to be pealing back: In April 2015, I issued a 2016 recession call between Q2-Q3 for the U.S. (following my January call for 1,810 on the SPX). After being laughed at, I wonder who will have the last laugh as Atlanta Fed's GDPNow is modeling a mere .4% (with a potential to go negative) for Q1. At 22.87x trailing 12-months earnings, equities remains extremely expensive and only have been at these levels prior to market crashes, including the market panic of 1893/96, flash crash of 1962, early 1990's recession, the Dot Com bubble and the Great Recession. Do you feel lucky? .... I remain unapologetically bearish. Reiterating my 1,546 SPX target for 2017. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytr
SP:SPX
by CommoditiesTrader
8
Demand for Gold Rockets HigherIs the once Goldman Sachs "slam dunk sell" turning into a layup buy? I cannot hate the initial call from many investment bank analysts it to sink to $1,000 because, in 2013, I issued a $1,035 bear-call. However, I do ridicule these analysts for unwillingly (either through ignorance or moral hazard) understanding the dynamics of gold. But in 2014 I turned rather bullish on the precious metal. As readers know, I developed a hybrid approach: bullish on physical bullion while understanding that prices are sentiment drive. It was hard to deny that the longer-term fundamentals for gold were strengthening between global stagnation and misguided central banking policies. Despite central banks, primarily the Federal Reserve, trying to fill in the ever-widening gaps via patchwork, market participants remains highly negative up until late December. This year, traders saw absolute carnage for risk assets and the strongest demand for gold in years. GLD has seen massive inflows, only second to SPY. IAU has seen inflows everyday this year. The demand has been so strong, BlackRock (which manages the iShares Gold Trust) suspended share issuance. Secondly, inflows to both popular gold-backed ETFs have not been this strong since the SPX fell 18 percent and the Federal Reserve were mere months from starting quantitative easing in 2009. And, we know what happened after that. Now, the recent move will likely remain volatile as gains on consolidated and traders buy on pullbacks. As you can see in the weekly chart of GLD, the entire move from 2008 to 2011 remained in demand to overbought. If the fund sees a similar nominal gain over the next couple years, traders could see $2,230 for spot gold prices. Considering that the top three central banks have gone over the deep-end to appease risk assets, we could be seeing a resumption of the gold bull market. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
AMEX:GLD
by CommoditiesTrader
BLINK AND YOU MISSED THE MOVEHey guys, so the FED came out today and said that they would raise the interest rate by .25. If you have been following me, I mention in my previous post that no matter what the FED does, the market should head higher. The red lines on my graph was to illustrate my previous post and as you can see i said that it should continue up, however I was expecting a pullback as seen on the red lines. The pullback did occur if you zoom in on the 5 minutes but it was very fast and shallow ( guess all those on the sidelines jumped in ). Enough of that and lets get down to business. On the technical side, hourly seen to be almost overbought, there a tiny bit of room that it could go up before some normal backing and filling... This is represented by the blue lines. I hope this plays out because I want to add to my long position. Anyway, my opinion is that any dips should be bought and we head higher. As always USE RISK MANAGEMENT WHEN TRADING THIS IS THE KEY TO WINNING IN THE MARKETS.
FX:SPX500Long
by sentimenttimingnewsletter
3
REALLY TRICKY ...MAYBEsorry for the late day posting guys/girls... But I was busy at work and couldn't get a chance to post anything/calculate my work.....I have stupid student loans that i need to pay and i have to work to pays those off...until i make enough money trading or working I got Bills that i have to pay.....but one day I hope i can become a day trader Please click the link if you like my work.... I use this link to help me graph my trades, they give me a sentiment reading to help make my calls but the technical are all done by me ( that's my work involving calculations ) www.sentimenttiming.com Today.. the bears came full force into the price area I was looking at 1995 but they pushed it to 1993 BUT BOUNCED OFF THIS LEVEL ( THATS WHY I SAID DON'T PUT ON YOUR SUPER BEAR FACE ) ...NOW it gets really tricky..From a technical point of view, we are totally oversold on the daily readings which would be ok to try and graph a trade but THE FED ... will be announcing the RATE HIKE DECISION. This could throw investors and traders on a roller-coaster. However mathematically and the laws that govern the stock market ( THIS IS WHAT I DISCOVERED...I believe that the end result ( hike or not ) will cause the market to push up. I have a few targets that the SPX500 should get to based on my mathematics and laws and that target is around the (2145-2200). But for now I did try to graph something but again just keep an open mind AND AS ALWAYS USE RISK MANAGEMENT ...THIS IS THE KEY TO WINNING THE MARKETS...ALSO BEING CASH IS A POSITION TOO AND SHOULD ALSO BE CONSIDERED. I will try my to give you guys updates but THESE BILLS ...lol this song describes it perfectly www.youtube.com
FX:SPX500
by sentimenttimingnewsletter