Walton breaking out of curveWe will be breaking out of this curve within the next 2 weeks. Likely sooner.
I have my targets listed.
Season
BTC TAX SEASON CRASHThese are guidelines of what may or may not happen in the market.
04/12/18
BTC DUMP 10 DAYS | 29.45%
BTC PUMP 19 DAYS | 37.45%
BTC DUMP 4 DAYS | 6.9%
BTC PUMP 8 HOURS |3.6%
BTC TAX DUMP 4 HOUR DAY 5 (April 15th) | 24.45%
Currently BTC pumped from 6K to 7800K that is a full 30%
According to percentage analysis BTC should see another pump of up to 4-7% until the 4 day dump.. 8381 USD
However I believe that to be unlikely unless we are behind schedule by 8 days.
Playing it safe.
Today is the 12th of April and on the 12th of April last year BTC dumped 6.9%
Then pumped same 3.6% for 8 hours
After the 8 hour pump we saw 3 days of bear traps...
Finally on the 15th from 5 AM in the morning to 9 AM in the morning BTC DUMPED
BTC then pumped right back up to 1190 that same day April 15th at 9 AM
There are two market psychologies here..
1. BTC will rise 7% more even though we are right on track for the crash.
2. BTC will fall and we are already in the bull trap.
Conclusion:
I believe 2. BTC will fall.
The market follows time trends, percentages over time can help us quantify the amount of profit possible.
Deduct 24% of 7800 we get 5928
I believe whatever happens this is a safe value to buy back in.
Sell price 7800
Buy price 5950
Other thoughts:
BTC may drop lower due to the current market missing 7%
Instead of 24% maybe a full 30% dump making up for the lost 7%
ALT SEASON OR BTC BULL RUN?They say people only see what they want to believe, that markets exist to make fools of the overly hopeful...
Well, half of the crowd is calling for an alt season, and the other half for a new BTC all time high. IMO both groups are jumping the gun as we are still in a downtrend! In order for either to occur BTC needs to enter a sideways accumulation phase first.
On the log 1D I see a clear uptrend & downtrend, based on which I can assume we will narrowly escape this downward spiral in mid-April and have ourselves an alt-season. Why not a BTC bull run? Simple - we can't start another BTC run-up until we consolidate, and historically we see that when BTC consolidates, alts flourish! BTC has yet to move sideways whereas many alts have been bottomed out for months already.
Of course, neither alt nor BTC can flourish with the low volume we're having lately - we need a newfound public optimism in the cryptosphere to proceed. Furthermore, for 2018 to be the biggest year for crypto yet, we will need institutional money to enter as well, which we all know is waiting for the green light from regulators. With most of the FUD from this past quarter exhausted, & though its contradictory to my opening sentence, I feel HOPEFUL for the remainder of 2018 :).
Just my thoughts, happy trading!
