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Seasonalities

June seasonality pivot approachingOne of my big technical analysis passions is time analysis and time cycles, and I tend to follow them closely. Some of these are very helpful when in combination with other TA, to find reversal points at any given time frame, even though I don't do intraday trading, so I focus on big swings, though bigger time frames. Bitcoin's periodicity is remarkable, and we can generally find important pivots points during seasonality shifts. One of these season shifts occur in June and has been occurring for the last few years, marking the start of important swings. This seasonality shift is generally very powerful and has the power to mess with some other lower time frame cycles, such as the 60 day cycle, so at this specific time of the year we should expect some LTF cycle non-sense. This seasonality pivot is expected around mid June, so a lower low is expected around that time. Around the seasonality pivot we can look for price targets with other techniques. Past 45º trendlines, and Elliot wave theory targets are some of my favourite ways to find support levels. As of now, my pivot projection lies at mid June within the 50-55k range. More accurate EW targets can be determined once the current high is confirmed.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by LittlePhi
1
Gold Rush - Yes or no? Around two weeks ago, gold reached a new all-time high, 2450.2$, just above the last high of 2,431.6$. However, the bulls were unable to maintain this high level over the course of the day. In the following trading days, the gold price fell sharply, losing a bit more than 100$. There has been a weak recovery over the last few days, with renewed selling pressure emerging in the middle of the week. A new low was reached on Thursday, albeit with a bullish reversal. Chart facts: - Resistance zone or possible double top around the 2,430$ level - EMA50 in the daily chart successfully tested on Thursday - Bullish reversal candle on Thursday - Massive support at around 2,300$ Outlook Thursday's reversal candle is now the perfect template for the ‘Friday Gold Rush Strategy’. Such a bullish daily candle has already led to strong gains on Fridays. A recovery to USD 2,370-2,380$ is well on the cards. From a buyer's persepctive, a daily close above USD 2,380$ would fit into the picture, which still looks bullish. Good luck out there, Bernd Senkowski
WHSELFINVEST:GOLDLong
by WHSelfInvest
Implementing SEASONAL TENDENCIESHi guys, In this video I go through what are "seasonal tendencies", and how you can implement it into your analysis and strategy(ies). Seasonal tendencies in the context of financial markets are basically what the particular market or asset has historically done throughout the years in terms of bullish or bearish movement. For example, in April-May the US Dollar is usually bearish, and from May-June it is usually bullish. This is useful information because it can add confluence to your bias/analysis. However, you do not want to solely use this information as a reason to get into a trade. The data is based on the past, and is not indicative to the present/future and also does not represent how much a market or asset can move because the data is only measured relative to what it has previously done. The best approach is to use this as an additional thumbs up if it coincides with your analysis, and if it does, then it allows you to be a bit more cautious or risk averse. A simple analogy is the weather. If you were planning a holiday to Thailand for a sunny getaway, the best times would be from March to July. Most likely you are not going to book a holiday in November during the monsoon season, unless you actually wanted it to rain every day. However, some years have had very little to no rain during the monsoon season. That being said, you would most likely choose to go during a time that seasonally has hot and sunny weather. This is how you can use seasonal tendencies to add an additional layer to your analysis. I hope that was insightful and gave you some ideas to test if you've never heard of seasonal tendencies. You can implement this both as a technical or fundamental analyst (or both). Til next time, happy trading. - R2F
TVC:DXYEducation
by Road_2_Funded
Shrinking Inventories Lends Support to Oil PricesCrude oil prices have remained lacklustre and rangebound in 2024. Slow economic growth and abundant production have kept prices muted. OPEC's efforts of supply cuts haven’t helped. Neither have geopolitical tensions. Over the past two weeks, oil prices have once more started to pick up steam, supported by trend of shrinking inventory. Despite the price buoyancy, we expect prices to remain rangebound with supply and demand in balance. Yet even during these periods, positioning tactically can allow traders to harness positive gains. This paper posits a calendar spread in CME Crude Oil futures which provides a reward to risk ratio of 1.3x while remaining directionally neutral. PERSISTENT GEOPOLITICAL RISKS FAIL TO INFLUENCE PRICES While price, the options skew and IV may not reflect it, geo-political risk for oil supply has not dissipated. Geopolitics remains tense with the conflict in Ukraine and the middle east showing no signs of ending anytime soon. Cease-fire negotiations are stuck in a stalemate. Houthi rebels continue to target ships passing through the Red Sea. Conflicts are dragging on. The risk of escalation remains high. Earlier this year, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries reportedly destroyed approximately 12% of Russia’s total oil processing capacity. According to analysts , continued disruptions and attacks on Russian oil infrastructure is likely to pressure Russian production and exports. Confluence of these risk factors suggests the potential for upside risk in oil prices. Yet, IV does not reflect this sentiment. CVOL index for CME Crude Oil options is at a four-year low and skew is close to zero suggesting demand for call options remains subdued. Source - CME CVOL It is difficult to establish a directional stance based on geopolitical risks given the fragile situation. REOPENING REFINERIES PROVIDE MUCH NEEDED CRUDE DEMAND Towards the end of January, a divergence in crude inventories & gasoline stockpiles started to emerge. US crude inventories saw large buildups while refined oil inventories had large drawdowns. This suggested that while demand for crude products was strong, seasonal refinery outages meant demand for crude oil was subdued. The refinery outages were exacerbated by the cold blast in January which led to unplanned shutdowns. The impact – excessive buildup of crude inventories which led to bearish prices. At the same time, inventories of refined crude products like gasoline showed that demand at the downstream has remained strong. Gasoline inventories have fallen sharply over the past month and stand near their 5-year lows. Data Source - EIA Over the past month, though, refineries have come back online much faster than anticipated. Refinery utilization rate has surged from 80% in early Feb to almost 88% as of 15/March. Data Source - EIA Increase in refinery utilization has provided much needed demand for crude oil. Crude oil inventories have shifted from their huge buildups to drawdowns over the past week. At the same time, gasoline inventories continue to decline at a rapid pace suggesting strong fuel demand. Data Source - EIA In EIA’s weekly petroleum status report for the week ending 15/March, crude inventories fell more than expected (2 million barrels vs 900k barrels expected). The reason for the surprise – higher exports and refinery activity. This suggests that the demand for crude oil in the near term is stronger than many expected after the huge buildups in Feb. OPEC+ SUPPLY CUT EXTENSION FAILS TO ENTHUSE MARKETS At the meeting on 3/March, OPEC announced the extension of their voluntary production cuts till June. Cuts remain at around 2 million bpd, unchanged from previous guidance set in November 2023. Despite the extension of cuts, crude prices remained muted. According to S&P Global , many participants were already expecting the extension. Source - OPEC Monthly Report Moreover, the recent non-compliance of production quotas by some members has become a major concern. In January, OPEC members exceeded their quota by 139k bpd. In February, members exceeded their quotas by 208k bpd. Source - OPEC Monthly Report Most of the non-compliance is coming from a select few nations - Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, the UAE, and Gabon. Source - OPEC Monthly Report Over-production raises concerns over seriousness to production cut commitments and its long-term sustainability. It is likely that over-production and the eventual roll-back of supply cuts will lead to a higher supply of crude oil later in the year. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SET UP In the near term, crude inventories are likely to see increasing drawdowns given the rapid ramp-up of refineries and persistently high fuel demand. Outages in Russia are also impacting near-term supply on a global scale. Yet the supply outlook later in the year is less promising. The compliance of OPEC+ supply cuts are fading. Seasonal trends show that crude inventories tend to rise during the summer. Data Source - EIA Investors can take advantage of these trends by executing a calendar spread consisting of a long position on near term CME WTI Crude Oil Futures and a short position on a later expiry. Though, the backwardation on crude oil has become steeper over the past month, it potentially has scope to steepen further. The following hypothetical trade comprising a long position on the near-dated contract expiring in April (MCLK2024) and a short position on the further dated contract expiring in May (MCLM2024) provides a compelling reward-to-risk ratio of 1.4x. A calendar spread using WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures is directionally neutral. It is also beneficial from a margin standpoint. CME offers margin offsets for calendar spreads due to its relative lower risk profile of the trade. The spread requires maintenance margin of just USD 40. • Entry: 1.0063 • Target: 1.0135 • Stop Loss: 1.0003 • Profit at Target: USD 57.8 • Loss at Stop: USD 48.6 • Reward to Risk: 1.2x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by mintdotfinance
Just a recap of last weeks analysisit played out how it was supposed to We induced back up to the 1H OB of the BOS leg then headed back down. I didn't think we would take out the lows. I guessed that we were going to hit an area highlighted in red and then push upward my thoughts were based on the fact that we already took February's lows early, but I do now realize seasonal data supports that we will usually go bullish after CPI & PPI after the 15th of march. so, I'll be anticipating that and expecting to see SMT between CPI and PPI day before pushing up till around mid-April at least.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by GeishaDoll