S&P 500 - Sell in May, return anther day. The truth - 2025No doubt everyone has heard a variation of the phrase:
“Sell in May, return another day.”
In Wikipedia it is written:
“Sell in May and go away is an investment strategy for stocks based on a theory (sometimes known as the Halloween indicator) that the period from November to April inclusive has significantly stronger stock market growth on average than the other months. In such strategies, stock holdings are sold or minimised at about the start of May and the proceeds held in cash”
A public comment from last year:
“Over 100 years ago, the (practical) reason to sell in May and September, was to pay seasonal workers to seed the field (May) and to harvest (September). Caravans of landlords and farm owners went to New York to sell stocks and withdrew money from the banks to do payrolls
so for people without agricultural business, i'll say it's okay to hold in May”
If we are to take all this at face value then we should be unwinding our long term positions until the Autumn?
What does the chart say?
On the above monthly chart of the S&P 500 each vertical line marks the month of May going back to 2012. That is a dataset of 13 points.
The facts:
1) From the month of May onwards, 11 from 13 periods returned positive price action of not less than 10%. Selling in May was a bad choice.
2) 2015 and 2022 saw corrections of 15% from May onwards. However in both examples the correction was erased within 12 months as the index continued the uptrend.
In summary, 86% of the time a minimum return of 10% was seen before the year end. Amazing odds.
Furthermore, corrections up and until the end of April (like we’re now seeing) represented some of the best long opportunities.
Sell in May go away? I suggest it should be: Buy in June and watch it boom!
Ww
Seasonality
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Privacy matters, and it will cost you in the futureGood day Investor and traders,
When the criminals run show, they definitely don't want you to know it.
Privacy is a double edged sword. However, just because criminals use it doesn't mean it should shunned upon. Criminals also wear clothes and use curtains. Both are fashion statement second, but serve as privacy first. Enough of my opinion, the chart speaks for its self.
Other than my additions, this is a naked chart of XRM on the weekly. It shows a very distinct patterns of how it moves.
XMR is another coin that was in my thesis from a couple years back in the bear market of 2022 that was the "lengthening or alternating" altcoin cycles. Another cycle that looks like it want to repeat, just much more drawn out. I do believe it will repeat, it might take 10-20 years or so to do so. The next big phase of privacy might have to have people getting a taste of CBDC or UBI, before they realize how much it will, or most likely could infringe upon their privacy. The chart shows early investors already knew this. Look at that move from 2016 to 2017 25 cents to $480 dollars. WOW, that rivaled XRP's big move!!! The key pattern here is the initial move then the big correction, the retest (double top) and how it moves with the fib levels. I have highlighted this in the chart with the Monero XMR logo and and a circle then with the yellow rectangle. Its the same pattern just waaaay drawn out. So, after this double top M then correction, marks the key before price explosion. IMO, I don't think it's and "IF" it happens, but "WHEN" it happens. These types patterns are what sparked my original thesis on these coins. IMO there is a reason other than just profits, early investor recognized the eventual use case, just like in Bitcoin.
Let me know what you think in the comments.
Kind regards,
WeAreSat0shi
Price Action + Fundamentals Point to Dollar StrengthThe current market environment presents compelling evidence for a bullish move in the US Dollar Index (DXY). While some patience is required, the setup is increasingly favorable for the dollar to appreciate in the coming weeks and months.
Key Factors Supporting a Bullish Move:
Monthly Close Above 100.160:
A critical technical level to monitor is the monthly close above 100.160. If achieved, it would signal a strong bullish breakout, setting the stage for a continuation higher. Given current price action and market dynamics, this scenario looks highly probable. However, if the price fails to close above 100.160 and instead breaks below it, we could potentially start looking for short opportunities.
Bond Market Strength (30Y, 10Y, 5Y):
This past week, we witnessed notable strength across the US bond market. Yields declined as prices rose, typically a positive signal for the dollar as it reflects capital inflows into US assets.
COT Report Insights:
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a critical shift: commercial traders, often considered the "smart money," are beginning to accumulate long positions in the dollar. This change in positioning historically precedes significant bullish moves.
Seasonal Patterns:
Seasonality also favors the dollar during this period. Historically, the dollar tends to strengthen in the mid-year months, aligning perfectly with the current technical and fundamental landscape.
Targets:
Initial Target: 106.120
Given the accumulation signs and supportive macro backdrop, a move towards 106.120 seems very realistic.
Ethereum (ETH) – Strategic Trade PlanEthereum (ETH) continues to show resilience, currently trading around $1,790 after a strong bounce earlier this month. While the crypto market remains volatile, ETH is holding key technical levels that could fuel a major move in the coming weeks.
🎯 Entry Points:
Market Price: $1,790 — Ideal for an early position, as ETH holds above critical support zones.
$1,645 — Secondary strong support, aligning with the 20-day EMA; great for scaling in if market pulls back.
$1,400 — Deep value zone, offering a high-risk/high-reward setup if broader market correction occurs.
💰 Profit Targets:
$2,500 — First major resistance. A realistic mid-term target if bullish momentum sustains.
$3,000 — Psychological milestone and breakout confirmation level.
$3,800+ — Ambitious but achievable with broader crypto market recovery and strong ETH network metrics.
🛡️ Risk Management:
Set stop-losses dynamically below each entry support level.
Scale into positions progressively to manage volatility.
Monitor macroeconomic trends and Bitcoin's influence closely.
🔍 Key Observations:
Strong on-chain activity supports a bullish thesis.
Current resistance around $1,812 must be broken to confirm bullish continuation.
Be cautious of sudden market-wide corrections — always plan your exits and manage your risk accordingly.
📢 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trading cryptocurrencies involves significant risk, and you should only invest what you can afford to lose. Always perform your own research before entering any position.
EURAUD, 68% FIb retracement completed, Buy setupFundamental Analysis
1. Seasonality shows bullish momentum in EURAUD from 10 Apr to Mid of May
2. COT data shows net positions reduction in AUD while Increasing in EUR
3. Overall score of EUR is bullish and AUD is bearish
Technical Analysis
1. EURAUD broke 2 year Rectangular consolidation box
2. strong breakout appear
3. Bulls are in charge
4. 68% fib retracement completed
5. Look for 2 setups
i. if breakout above sideways region then buy setup 2
ii. If breakdown, then look for setup 1
GBPNZD, Bullish Trend, Trendline, Consolidation, Seasonalityfundamental Analysis
1. Overall fundamentals shows bullishness in GBP while NZD is somewhat on weaker side
2. Seasonality shows Bullish trend in GBPNZD from start of May till Mid
Technical Analysis
1. Bullish Trend with trendline retest
2. Bullish divergence on 4h
3. consolidation at bottom
4. Buy on breakout above consolidation rectangle
5. SL below rectangle
[ TimeLine ] Gold 21-22 April 2025Hello everyone,
📅 Today is Monday, April 21, 2025
I will be using the High-Low price levels formed on the following dates as reference points for potential trade entries:
📌 April 21, 2025 (Monday)
📌 April 22, 2025 (Tuesday)
🧠 Trading Plan & Notes:
✅ Gold has broken its ATH multiple times over the past two weeks —volatility remains high
✅ The range formed on April 21 is approximately 3331 to 3430 — a massive 1000-pip zone
⚠️ Due to the large range, reversal entries or trades based on Fibonacci levels may be more appropriate
✅ I will personally trade both signals as part of my ongoing research and strategy
⚠️ If you're unsure or risk-averse , consider skipping April 21's signal
📋 Execution Plan:
🔹 Wait for the price range from the candles above to fully form ( marked with green lines )
🔹 Entry will be triggered upon breakout, with a 60-pip buffer
🔹 If the trade hits Stop Loss (SL), switch direction and double the position size on the next valid entry for potential recovery
📉📈 Chart Reference:
x/lgXVOC2u/
Solana – Bear Market Rally or Reversal?Like the rest of the crypto market, Solana started rebounding on April 8th, pushing more than 50% up from the recent lows. But just like with many altcoins, I'm not convinced this is a true trend reversal. Instead, it looks more like a classic bear market rally.
Let’s not forget: SOL is coming down from nearly $300. A bounce from $95 to $150 is strong, yes—but in the bigger picture, it’s still just a correction.
📍 Key resistance zone: $160–$170
As long as price remains under this zone, the probability of another leg down remains high.
🧠 My plan:
If Solana creates a new local high around $160, I’ll be looking to sell into the rally.
🎯 Target:
$100 at least, depending on how the market reacts.
Front-loaded Exports has fuelled rally in Corn. Can it last?After President Trump instituted broad new tariffs on 2nd April 2025, corn futures initially wavered but then rallied sharply. While this may seem counterintuitive given tariffs' disruptive impact on trade, near-term support for corn comes from front-loaded U.S. exports, a weaker dollar, and lower-than-expected domestic supply.
However, prices are likely to face downward pressure as the U.S. harvest season approaches. This paper examines the short-term bullish factors, outlines the potential risks ahead, and presents a hypothetical trade setup involving a calendar spread on CME Micro Corn futures.
CME Corn futures gapped lower on 3rd April but quickly recovered, jumping 4.5% over the next three trading days to six-week highs by 9th April. This move aligns with the typical spring seasonal trend, as corn often firms in late spring during planting & strong demand season.
Surging Export Commitments Amid Tariffs
Export commitments have surged post-tariff announcement. USDA reports that U.S. exporters had already booked about 85% of the 2024/25 season target by early April, according to Reuters , well above the 5‐year average.
In the week ending 3rd April, net U.S. corn sales hit ~40.2 million bushels, reflecting heavy front-loading. Large private sales continue: for example, in early April exporters announced a 9.4-million-bushel sale of 2024/25 corn to Spain.
These front-loaded sales (especially to Mexico & Europe) suggest buyers are rushing to secure supply before possible trade disruptions. Overall, extraordinarily strong export pace and large “flash” sales are underpinning the market.
Supply is Weaker than Initially Thought
USDA’s April WASDE cut U.S. 2024/25 ending stocks to just 1.465 billion bushels – a 75 million bushels reduction – implying a stocks/use ratio around 9.6%. For context, that ratio is near multi-decade lows for corn. The USDA simultaneously raised exports to 2.55 billion bushels, a full 100 million bushels above the previous estimate.
On the supply side, USDA’s Prospective Plantings (March 2025) projected 95.3 million corn acres for 2025, roughly 5% higher than 2024, above expectations (highlighted by Mint Finance in a previous paper ). This suggests that while near-term stocks remain stressed the situation is likely to improve drastically following the harvest.
Weaker Dollar Supports Increased Corn Exports
A key bullish factor for U.S. corn exports is the recent weakness of the U.S. dollar. After the tariff announcement, the trade-weighted dollar tumbled – hitting fresh lows (e.g. a 10-year low versus the Swiss franc). Through April 10, the dollar was down ~2–3% on the week. A weaker dollar makes U.S. corn cheaper for overseas buyers, supporting export competitiveness. With dollar at multi-year lows, U.S. corn is more attractive globally, partly offsetting any Chinese retaliatory tariffs.
COT and Options Data
Managed-money funds have dramatically pared back their long corn bets since the beginning of March. CFTC COT data show net long positions peaking around 364,000 contracts in early February, then plunging to ~54,000 by the 8th April report. However, the pace of decline has slowed dramatically over the past few weeks and seems to be signalling an end of the cutback by asset managers.
Interestingly, despite the tariff introduction (2/April) and the WASDE release (10/April), implied volatility (IV) moderated. IV has since normalized from the spike observed in March. During this period, skew also declined, reaching a negative value on 8th April - indicating that put options briefly became more expensive than calls.
Although this trend has since reversed, skew remains near its lowest levels in 2025, suggesting sustained interest in put options among market participants.
Source: CME CVOL
OI shift over the past week also signals a cautious tone despite the rally. Near term options have seen an increase in put OI, suggesting participants remain cautious despite the rally.
Source: CME QuikStrike
Hypothetical Trade Setup
While bullish factors have driven a sharp rally in corn prices over the past two weeks, there are dark clouds on the horizon. Tariffs risk disrupting trade and as most importers have already loaded up on US corn, they could slow the pace of future purchases.
Additionally, a downbeat seasonal trend along with an expected bumper harvest signal that prices could reverse sharply from here. On the technical front, momentum remains solidly bullish but approaching a potential overbought level amid a slowing bullish trend.
Corn prices remain pressured from a bumper harvest expected in September. Along with expected trade disruptions and a slowdown in the pace of US exports, prices are likely to decline during the summer. Regardless, prices remain bullish in the near term from a weakening dollar and near-term front loading.
To express views on these converging trends, investors can deploy a calendar spread on CME Micro Corn futures consisting of a long position on the near-term May contract (MZCK2025) and a short position on the September contract (MZCU2025). A hypothetical trade setup providing a reward to risk ratio of 1.8x is mentioned below:
A calendar spread on CME Micro Corn Futures is highly capital efficient with the above trade requiring maintenance margin of just USD 23 as of 15/April. The position remains protected from near-term price increase but benefits from the eventual price decline in September during harvest season.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
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EURCHF – Bullish Reversal Setup + Fundamentals Trade Idea Summary: EUR/CHF showing strong bullish confluence:
✅ Bullish RSI Divergence on both 1H & 4H
📉 Price testing a key 4H support zone
📊 Seasonality favors EURCHF upside (bullish from April 15–30)
🧠 Fundamentals, COT, LEI + Endogenous indicators support long EUR / short CHF
ECB: Dovish but stable, EUR fundamentals improving (LEI ↑, Endo ↑)
SNB: Aggressively dovish, low inflation, weak CHF outlook
0x Idea speaks for itself.
We're currently in 'PROVEN BUY ZONE' with past returns well above 6x.
This is not financial advice nor any indicator or promise of future gains, however...
It's undeniable that within last 5.5 years this infrastructure protocol gave plenty of opportunities and there are no fundamentals (known to me) that should negatively impact potential gains of min. 2x from trigger range within next 12M.
At the moment chart has left the trigger range, but it usually takes time before it develops desired structure for a move up. Personally, I'll be looking to make a decision around range top as LTF show confluence area around $0.228-$0.22 and lower, at $0.209.
For those with 'more sophisticated' pallet for a tighter entries, there's a range low to hope for expanding further 30% to the downside.
Worth to come back to this EOY to reconcile.
Bitcoin Cyclical Pattern Analysis: 2017 vs 2025-2026The charts provide compelling evidence of fractal patterns between Bitcoin's 2017 bull run and the current 2025 cycle, revealing both striking similarities and meaningful differences in market behavior.
Key Similarities
Both periods display remarkably similar structural patterns with consistent sequence of movements:
Initial pulldowns (~34% in 2017 vs ~33% in 2025)
Series of uptrends followed by corrective pullbacks
Progressive upward momentum with higher highs and higher lows
Similar number of major price waves (four significant uptrends in each case)
Key Differences
Timeframe Extension: The 2025 cycle shows significantly extended durations compared to
2017
Initial pulldown: 3 weeks (2017) vs 21 weeks (2025) – 7x longer
First major uptrend: 12 weeks (2017) vs 11 weeks (2025) – similar duration
Second uptrend: 12 weeks (2017) vs 14 weeks (2025) – slightly longer
Overall cycle progression is approximately 2-3x longer
Magnitude Reduction: The 2025 cycle shows diminished percentage movements:
First major uptrend: 230% (2017) vs 120% (2025) – roughly half
Second uptrend: 172% (2017) vs 85% (2025) – roughly half
Final uptrend: 253% (2017) vs 125% (2025) – roughly half
Technical Analysis Support
This pattern correlation would likely be supported by other technical indicators:
Bollinger Bands would show:
Similar pattern of band expansion during strong directional moves
Band contraction during consolidation periods before breakouts
2025 likely exhibiting less volatility (narrower bands) but with similar repeating patterns of price touching upper bands during uptrends and lower bands during corrections
Ichimoku Cloud would demonstrate:
Similar cloud breakout patterns preceding major uptrends
Price respecting key Ichimoku components (Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen) as support/resistance
2025 showing extended time within the cloud during longer consolidation periods
Similar bullish/bearish crossovers of the conversion and base lines, but occurring over longer timeframes
Predictive Value
This comparative lens offers valuable predictive power for several reasons:
Market Psychology Consistency: Despite Bitcoin's maturation, market psychology (fear, greed cycles) remains remarkably consistent, expressed through similar percentage retracements and fractal patterns.
Macro Context Integration: The longer durations and reduced volatility in 2025 reflect Bitcoin's increased market capitalization and institutional adoption, creating a logical evolution of the same underlying patterns.
Specific Forecasting Application: If the pattern correlation holds, we might anticipate:
The current cycle extending into mid-2026
One more major uptrend followed by a 30-40% correction
A final explosive move of approximately 125-150%
Total cycle appreciation significantly less than 2017 but still substantial
Risk Management Framework: These patterns provide clear pivot points for position sizing and risk management, with defined percentage targets and timeframes.
This analysis suggests we're witnessing an evolved expression of the same market dynamics that drove the 2017 cycle, with the extended timeframes and reduced percentage movements reflecting Bitcoin's maturation as an asset class while maintaining its fundamental cyclical character.RetryClaude can make mistakes. Please double-check responses.
QTUM May Surprise You All (3D Analysis)Qtum has formed a rectangle in weekly time period. Whenever it reachs the bottom, always turned back to gather upside liquidty till now.
The other interesting thing is, when Qtum first went upwards for liquidty, it took over 2 years to gather all remaining short liqudations. When it did again, it took less than a year. So the scale of time for gathering liquidty is squezing.
If Qtum can stay above the bottom of the rectangle, I believe there is a chance for %160 profit in long term. There is not even need for a leverage.
-%20 down here means that this coin is set for going hell and no way for recover.
But, there is %160 profit chance. The question is, are you willing to take that risk?
Cause I will.
Thanks for reading.
EURUSD - Medium-term analysis of the euroThe weekly order flow is bearish and the daily is bullish. But let's take a closer look at the EUR from the monthly timeframe:
On the monthly timeframe, the price has hit the middle of the swing structure and has also filled the FVG.
Regardless of the seasonal tendencies that slightly favor the monthly bullish candle, on the weekly timeframe, the price has hit an order block last week and has gathered liquidity at equal levels below this order block.
With all these interpretations and signs that I see, although the daily timeframe has bullish order flow, I think the price can move down from this point (unless Trump gets naughty) and and target external liquidity on March 26.
I predict that the April monthly candle will close as a doji.
Everything is indicated on the chart.
This analysis will be updated in the future.
Be profitable
EURAUD, Bullish Bias, Fundamental and Technical AnalysisFundamental Analysis
1. Seasonality shows bullish momentum in EURAUD from 10 Apr to Mid of May
2. COT data shows net positions reduction in AUD while Increasing in EUR
3. Overall score of EUR is bullish and AUD is bearish
Technical Analysis
1. EURAUD broke 2 year Rectangular consolidation box
2. strong breakout appear
3. Bulls are in charge
4. Waiting for retest of breakout for entry
5. 1st buy 1.74 with Sl 1.704,
2nd buy if SL hit of 1st buy, entry @ 1.68 with SL 1.634 increase risk to 2%
ADOBE buy BiasWith the current bearish move on the NASDAQ - we can expect Adobe to move towards that weekly/daily Demand zone and fill a Long position to the upside.
Vaulation and seasonality align with stocks and indices - we should find a bottom to this drop on all indices Mid-End of April 2025.
Trade safe!
Long EURNZD – Seasonal, Fundamentals & Technical ConfluenceWe are entering a long position on EURNZD, capitalizing on a powerful confluence of:
Seasonal EUR strength + NZD weakness (April 10 – May 15)
A clear bullish market structure (CHoCH, HH/HL)
A clean Fibonacci retracement entry at 0.5
Strong macro divergence, with NZD exogenous conditions deteriorating
Macro & Seasonal Context
EUR enters a strong seasonal uptrend from April 10 to end of month
NZD shows seasonal weakness from April 15 onward
NZD’s exogenous model score worsened to -12 in April
While NZD LEI and endo improved, it remains structurally weak
Timing
Best execution: on pullback to 1.9373 zone, ideally between April 10–15, aligned with seasonal entry window.