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Seasonality

Is Gold's correction over?In my recent analyses, I warned that a significant correction in Gold prices was inevitable. True to this prediction, the election of Donald Trump triggered a sharp 1,000-pip drop in Gold's value. However, yesterday, the market rebounded strongly, recovering 700 pips from that initial decline. The big question now is whether this correction has run its course. In my view, we may have reached a bottom, and Gold could be poised to resume its overall uptrend. I’m currently looking for buying opportunities on dips.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
BTC dominance reveals how to navigate crypto cyclesHello everyone, this one is for patient (long-term) traders/investors, not for those chasing daily gains or short term swings. We are looking at BTC dominance chart. BTC dominance is currently at 60%, which is pretty high. Everyone who follows cryptos for some time should know how crypto cycles work. BTC is king and always leads the way. BTC if the first one to start the bull run, altcoins follow. When BTC is near its peak, money transfers into ALTs --> start of ALTSEASON. The first peak of altcoin season was January 2018. BTC dominance was at 35%. After Jan 2018 we went into a bear market. BTC dropped in value, ALTCOINS dropped even more. Consequently, BTC dominance went up. BTC dominance reached top at 74% in Jan 2021. That is when ALTSEASON started. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT BTC REACHED TOP in Jan 2021. BTC rose from 40k to 70k between Jan 2021 and Nov 2021, but ALTs in this period made bigger gains. BTC dominance in this period plummeted from 74% to 40%, creating a base for future. From Jan 2023 BTC has been rising and increasing its dominance, currently sitting at 60%. I am positive it will not break high of Jan 2018. Next strong resistance is in the area of 64-67%, I expect dominance to reverse in this area. BTC has already made a new ATH, but total crypto market space is not at an ATH yet. So ALTs are lagging in comparison to previous cycle. I believe we are at the start of ALT season and I will be looking into ALTs for my last gains this cycle. Check my other posts to see which ALTS I am considering. I will also be posting some other ALTs in coming days/weeks, so subscribe to stay notified. Good luck to everyone.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by carefulCheese32259
End of Year Palladium Bull Run \o/From the current notation, I see this leveraged ETF on Palladium rising approximately 45% until the end of the year. The reasons are as follows: Fundamental Factors : With increasing sanctions on Russia, one of the main exporters of palladium, global supply may become constrained. Furthermore, inflationary pressures might drive commodity prices higher. Technical Indicators : The Palladium chart has recently formed a higher high, and a higher low appears to be developing. The price has crossed above the 200-day SMA, and now the 30-, 50-, and 200-day SMAs are bullishly aligned. Seasonality: The seasonal strength in OANDA:XPDUSD is expected to begin the week after next. So, we could get ready for rising prices in Palladium!
LSE:2PALLong
by p4917
Bullish time in CORN ahead \o/You can see here the CBOT:ZC1! price displayed in a line chart. After reaching its high in early 2022, the bears took control, driving the price down significantly until now. The factors in play are as following: Seasonality: Corn prices have historically shown strength from December through March, aligning with planting and crop cycles. This seasonal trend could provide a solid backdrop for a potential price recovery. (highlighted in green on the chart) Interest Rates: We’ve reached a pivotal moment in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycle. The rate hikes that began in March 2022 coincided with the start of the bearish trend, while recent rate cuts in September 2024 may support a rebound in commodity prices, including corn. This shift in monetary policy could act as a bullish catalyst for corn and other commodities. (highlighted in orange on this chart) Technical Indicators: For additional confirmation, one could wait for a bullish crossover of the moving averages (a golden cross). Such a cross would reinforce the technical setup and definitively signal the onset of a new bull market in corn. With these factors in play, corn could be setting up for a strong rally in the months ahead.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by p4917
🔍 Bitcoin Halving 2024: Unraveling the Next Big Rally🔥CRYPTO:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT COINBASE:BTCUSD Hello dear traders. With only 17 days left until the monumental #Halving2024 event ⏳, the anticipation within the crypto community is palpable. Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ), the trailblazer of cryptocurrencies, is already trading above its All-Time High (ATH), signaling a market that is ripe with optimism. But the real spectacle? It's just on the horizon. 65K is my ideal support for further corrections. Follow me for more insights ... 🚀🌕 📈 What to Expect? Historically, Bitcoin undergoes a halving event every four years, a process that cuts the mining reward in half. This deflationary mechanism reduces the new supply of Bitcoin, potentially leading to an uptick in price as demand continues to rise against a limited supply. The aftermath of past halvings has witnessed substantial rallies, and the question now is, not if, but how high will CRYPTOCAP:BTC soar post-Halving2024? 🔑 Key Insights: Our analysis delves deep into the historical data, comparing pre and post-halving market behavior. The patterns observed suggest a 'wild mode' activation for Bitcoin, often kickstarting a major bull run. But what makes this halving event different? With CRYPTOCAP:BTC already above its ATH, the stage is set for unprecedented growth. 💹 🧐 The Break Point: The Halving Event is often regarded as a Break Point for Bitcoin, a transformative phase that catapults it into a new valuation territory. Our projections, rooted in sophisticated economic models and historical trend analysis, point towards a bullish explosion that could redefine market expectations. 🌐 📊 Strategy for Investors: The countdown to the halving is a critical period for investors. Being early in accumulating CRYPTOCAP:BTC and altcoins could position you advantageously for the impending rally. Our advice? Don't wait for the market to move post-halving. The opportunity is now. Accumulate, diversify, and prepare for the ride of a lifetime. 📈 💥Be Part of the Revolution: #Bitcoin's halving is not just an event; it's a testament to the resilience and revolutionary nature of cryptocurrencies. Join us as we navigate through these exciting times, armed with data-driven insights and a community of passionate investors. Whether you're a seasoned trader or new to the crypto space, now is the time to be part of something extraordinary. Let's embrace the future, together. 🚀🌕 #Halving2024 | #BTC | #CryptoRally
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by CrazyS
2
Three days after elections and one after FED cutStarting with #VIX the value decreased a lot after elections showing the decrease in investors fear With less fear we can follow the #SPX #DX1! #BTC1! which strongly rise their value. Commodites in general seems to had loss some points with Dollar strength, in this chart we can watch #GC1! and #BZ1! as benchmark In the case of Brent we can see a double top even with line chart. #US10Y decreased after 25bp cut nevertheless with Trump election US will probably activate more worldwide tariffs and this can lead to an increase in prices, and so the next couple months CPI will be a important measure to look at US economy in the future. So even it's decreasing and bonds are inversly to prices, I should keep an eye on it
TVC:US10Y
by AFCapital21
Don't F@ck up the Banana zone!This is the Others marketcap vs the Bitcoin Market cap chart. With their respective Banana zones for the past couple cycle and the current one we have already started. The KEY takeaway is you should be feeling the FOMO and kind already have been deployed into your favourite #Alts This #altseason may yield one of the worst performances in a cycle --- which I have warned a few times now. And finish sooner than you think. If you had waited for confirmation of a altcoin breakout and rotated/bough at the sad face this how your returns would have been crippled. 21 X ----> 5.8X 2017 6.4X ----> 3X 2021 3/4X -----> 1.75X/2.3X 2025 Drastically different. I hope you have found this chart informative. Smash the likes.
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERSLong
by BallaJi
Is QE really around the corner? Let's compare to GFCThe argument for US Quantitative Easing soon and subsequent pumpamentals in the equity market are often discussed on socialmedia these days. Let's look at the GFC and see when they announced QE back then. February 7, 2007 – HSBC’s Subprime Losses July 31, 2007 – Bear Stearns Hedge Fund Collapse September 18, 2007 – Fed Begins Rate Cuts September 15, 2008 - Lehmann Brothers Bankruptcy November 25, 2008 - Fed announces QE: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20081125b.htm Were are we today? Stonks at ATH, Gold at ATH, Bitcoin ATH. Valuations historically expansive and growth expectations on stonks gigantic accompanied by a lot of passive investment. Okay so all I'm trying to say here is that there were times where they were very strict in doing QE and only as a last resort in the depths of a crisis. Also when it happens it is not the immediate start to a bull market (at least during a crisis event). Also the balance sheet of the FED seems still full to me with 7 trillion to burn through. Is it really time to increase again? I know that the argument for soon QE to create liquidity(inflation) to handle the looming global debt crisis everyone is talking about is also out there. I also think that they will be faster this time to announce QE, they might just still take couple of months and a little bit of crisis.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by entomologyx
BTC and the previous three US Election DatesThis charts the dates of the previous three US Elections (2012, 2016 and 2020) on a log chart, with price on the horizontal axis at daily candle close. As you can see, once price breaks above (sometimes next day, as in 2020, sometimes a week or more later, as in 2016 and in 2012) price has never returned - ever. Plotted are the time and percentage difference from election date to cycle ATH. On average it's 387 days apart. If things play out this time in a similar fashion we can expect this week into mid next week to be the final time BTC will be in the mid 60k per coin - ever.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Jaekus
2
Slowly starting to scale in on OILThe fundamental outlook for oil is looking bullish. Despite seasonality favoring lower crude oil prices towards the end of the year, the conflicts in the Middle East are pushing prices higher. Technically, the downward move that has been in place since the beginning of July could now experience a correction. Therefore, I’ll begin slowly scaling into oil at the 61.8% retracement level, keeping in mind that prices could drop further before the end of the year. According to seasonality, we could see the high in oil prices around May 2025. Let’s see how it plays out.
AMEX:UCOLong
by p4917
UsdJpy- Will history repeat itself?As we approach the final months of the year, it’s worth noting the impact of JPY repatriation, which traditionally occurs when Japanese investors pull funds back to Japan, boosting yen demand. This trend often leads to an appreciation in the Japanese yen, affecting currency pairs like FX:USDJPY , as demand surges. Historically, this phenomenon has triggered notable yen strength. For example, last year saw USD/JPY fall by around 1,000 pips due to these repatriation flows. Assuming similar conditions prevail, we could anticipate another yen rally by this year's end. Technical Overview of USD/JPY: Currently, USD/JPY recently hit a high of around 154, moving into a key resistance area. At the time of writing, the price hovers above the horizontal support level. A decisive break below it could indicate a bearish “false break,” potentially signaling a larger downside move. Should the downtrend persist, potential targets could be set at: - Slightly under 150, - Followed by further support at 147, - And ultimately, a critical support at 141.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
1
AudJpy- Good shorting opportunity of 500 pipsAfter an upward reversal in early August and a higher low in mid-September, AUD/JPY continued climbing to reach a local high around 102. However, the pair has since stalled in this area, entering what appears to be a distribution phase. Currently, it seems to be testing a critical support level around 100. A successful break below this level could signal an accelerated downward move. A medium-term target for this decline is around 95, with an interim support level at 98—an attractive target for traders who are not so patient.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
Weekly Forecast: A High Volume Week Ahead!Common themes across the board with daily rallies that need to exhaust sooner or later and price approaching (if not already in) weekly EPD levels which overlap with Order Blocks or Fair Value Gaps. With an abundance of opportunity in the market, be careful not to marry your bias by maintaining a neutral perspective on all pairs. My Bias for the week is as follows: DXY - LONG EURUSD - SHORT AUDUSD - SHORT GBPJPY - LONG USDJPY - LONG
Long
by The_Modern_Day_Trader