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Seasonality-trading

SPY - short squeeze - or more down?Bear Market trend on SPY looking to continue, but could we get another short squeeze similar to the set up leading to the brief Sept squeeze in 2022? Based upon regression trend analysis and general market strength or lack there of, I don't think we see much of a squeeze for SPY here...will be adding to short positions on these modest price increases that appear to be more related to limited stock buy backs and some year end tape painting. More down on deck IMO. In terms of seasonality - January 2022 was weak and I expect pretty much the same in 2023 - or worse. Will reassess if we gat a SPY close above 387. NFA.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Akksujean
1
S&P HIGHER IN DEC WHILE USD WEAK + COT BULLISH- Seasonal: S&P is supposed to be strong in DEC - Seasonal: USD is supposed to be weak in DEC - Pattern: Q4 created a W + 1st push, 2nd push is to be expected after stophunt - Technical: Bullish break of Market Structure on the Daily in OCT - Efficiency: D1 overlapping Gaps + Imbalances offer support around 3900 and 4000 - S&D: Weekly Supply-zone at 4500 with Imbalances below it - COT: Asset Manangers accumulate longs and distribute shorts since OCT COT + SEASONALLITY VISUALISED: images2.imgbox.com
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by xtrader1
Is BTC heavily affect by Mars? Where is the potential bottomIn 2021, BTC reach it's all time thigh range between $27401- $69198.7. Can we predict the the support and resistance based of Astrology? To convert price to astrology angle: - Interval = (69198.7 - 27401) / 360 = 116.1 - Price angle = 69198.7 / 116.1 = 596' => (596 - 360) = 236' On 10/11/2021 at all time high both Mars and Mercury were on 217' and they are the closest planets to 236'. This makes both of them the candidate for the rise and fall of 2022. I decided to choose Mars for this study as Mercury is a more neutral planet. Chart was based off 3rd and 4th Harmonics of Mars transit at major or minor swing day after season pivot. In the chart 3rd harmonics are represented by the green lines, 4th harmonics the red line. Orange lines are both 3rd and 4th harmonics The transits are converted to price level based off the angle x interval. So far BTC price action respect these support and resistance levels The next few level down are: 15906 14745.3 14745.3 Question is have we reach the bottom? I think only Master Gann can answer that question.
by leokc
EURUSD(liquidity proxy)if BO parity, $ falls, gold,equity rallyEURUSD may be used as a liquidity proxy. It has been falling for a long time in a big down channel & Is now bouncing right at the dotted median line. (4Q is historically bullish going into new year specially on midterm election years, where markets bottom in late October) Watch closely if EURUSD will break above parity 1:1 again in a big move. Then most probably that is where the 4Q rally shall start extending to 1Q2023. I still believe there is still a wave 5 down for the C wave of the big ABC correction from ATH. In 2Q2023, ABC may end in a double bottom near the dotted median or even much lower to the lower channel in case of a recession, which is more probable in Europe than in the US. After ABC completes sometime before end of recession. Equities will rally to the start of a new EW cycle. Not trading advice
Long
by xtremerider8
XAUUSD SELLXAUUSD currently has a score of -7, or a Strong Sell rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that the Gold has a long percentage of 59.04%, and we see that the USD has a long percentage of 72%. This category receives a -1, as institutional traders favor the Gold. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to fall during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. The index saw lower GDP growth, inflation was higher than the previous report, unemployment was lower this month, and interest rates are lower than the last time.
XShort
by Jury_P
AUDCHF SELLAUDCHF currently has a score of -4, or a Sell rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theAUD has a long percentage of 32.84%, and we see that the CHF has a long percentage of 35.39%. This category receives a 0, as institutional traders favor the CHF. Taking a look atAUDCHF, we see that retail traders are 88% long, and 12% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theAUDCHF gets a reading of -1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to fall during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the AUD, inflation favors the CHF, unemployment favors the CHF and interest rates favor the AUD
AShort
by Jury_P
USDCHF BUYUSDCHF currently has a score of +4, or a Buy rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theUSD has a long percentage of 72%, and we see that the CHF has a long percentage of 35.39%. This category receives a +2, as institutional traders favor the USD. Taking a look atUSDCHF, we see that retail traders are 33% long, and 67% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theUSDCHF gets a reading of +1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the CHF, inflation favors the CHF, unemployment favors the CHF and interest rates favor the USD
ULong
by Jury_P
1
NZDCHF SELLNZDCHF currently has a score of -4, or a Sell rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theNZD has a long percentage of 32.46%, and we see that the CHF has a long percentage of 35.39%. This category receives a 0, as institutional traders favor the CHF. Taking a look atNZDCHF, we see that retail traders are 95% long, and 5% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theNZDCHF gets a reading of -1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to fall during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the NZD, inflation favors the CHF, unemployment favors the CHF and interest rates favor the NZD
NShort
by Jury_P
CADCHF SELLCADCHF currently has a score of -3, or a Sell rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theCAD has a long percentage of 51.1%, and we see that the CHF has a long percentage of 35.39%. This category receives a +1, as institutional traders favor the CAD. Taking a look atCADCHF, we see that retail traders are 94% long, and 6% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theCADCHF gets a reading of -1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to fall during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the CAD, inflation favors the CHF, unemployment favors the CHF and interest rates favor the CAD
CShort
by Jury_P
Bitcoin - Is this the bottom?How can you predict the bottom with all this noise? A lot of people are calling the June low of around $17,600 as the bottom!! So, let's take a look at the charts and the global economic fundamentals and decide for ourselves. As you all know I do not trade purely off of technical analysis. There is far more to the big picture then looking at the charts. When looking for a long-term trend change in an asset - BTC on this occasion, I look at three things: 1. Seasonal Trends - The most underrated source used by traders 2. Fundamental analysis 3. Technical analysis 1. Season Trends - There are a lot of great charts showing the seasonality of bitcoin (I encourage you to look at some). Bitcoin seasonality hinges on one thing.... BTC halving. So, every 4 years (or there abouts) we have three seasonal periods, upswing, downswing and accumulation phase. So, breaking down these three phases helps us predict where we are on the BTC price rollercoaster. Luckily for us these phases have relatively constant timeframes if we look at past performance. Upswings last anywhere from 14-18 months, downswings last anywhere from 12-14 months and accumulation phases last around 16 months. Now this doesn't mean that seasonality trends cannot change but we would be doing ourselves an injustice if we didn't consider past performance and trends not only in price action, but time also. As we are trying to predict the bottom we will be concentrating on the downswing for the current cycle. BTC began this downswing in November 2021. Currently we sit around 10.5 months into the bear market. This means we are getting close to hitting the seasonal bottom. Within reason.... we can predict the bottom to eventuate around November/December 2022, give or take a month or two either way. The only difference between previous BTC downswings and the current bear market is the global economic climate. Personally, I don't believe this will affect the initial timing of the bottom. I do however believe that this will impact the time in which we stay in the bottoming range. The possibility of an elongated bottom is very real. 2. Fundamental analysis - Let's look at the overall economic climate as this directly correlates to the markets. Interest rates are on the rise, inflation is out of control, and this is putting downwards pressure on the markets. Put simply, The US will be in a recession soon. What does this mean? For me, it means that we haven't seen the end to our market sell offs. There is still more room for correction. As long as interest rates rise, and inflation is out of control we will continue to see the US Dollar rise from current levels at 113 to 120, which will put downward pressure on all markets including BTC. Not to mention the flow of fresh capital into the markets will be at an all-time low as people are forced to battle everyday inflationary costs and increased interest rates on their loans. Now I am not all doom and gloom. People read recession and think the markets are crashing to 0 and we will all be eating rationed tinned food for the next 5 years. Let's put this all into perspective. I actually think the Fed and other countries have increased their interest rates at such an accelerated rate that we are only in for another 2-3 rate hikes over the next couple of years. No matter the season we're in people tend to exaggerate the facts. When Rates are increasing at rates not seen for decades, people think it will never end. But it does end, and, in this case, I believe we will keep rates balanced heading into the middle of next year. This tells me that our markets still have some headwinds over the next 6 or so months. Whether we free fall to our market bottoms and stay there for a prolonged period or whether we continue to free fall over the next 6 months remains to be seen. 3. Technical analysis - If we now turn to the charts, we can see that we remain in our green descending channel since BTC entered this bear market. We can also see that we are now at a decision point for BTC as we approach the upper green trend channel line. Do we break out of this trend, or will we continue our next leg down? Given the strength of the dollar and the state of stock and commodity markets worldwide I would be confident of another move lower within the green channel. If we also turn to Elliot wave theory this backs our notion for continued downside. We have completed the first 4 of 5 waves to the downside. With the last wave due at any point in time, it would make sense for the next leg to complete our major bear market move since the November highs of 2021. Now if we look at the current monthly candle structure (I know this chart is shown in weekly) we are close to the monthly close for Sep. The pivotal level at play here is the previous BTC high of just under 20k. If the current monthly candle closes below this level, expect a sharp decline to the 12k region. Last but not least I want to touch on the BTC whales. Most prudent crypto investor/traders are aware of their continued control over the price of BTC... Well, more control than the major players of other markets. In the past a telling sign of the end of a BTC bear market was an increase in whale BTC wallets. We are still seeing a decline in whales' BTC wallets which for me is a sure sign of more downward pressure.... All of these factors of confluence are telling me that the bottom is not yet in. We still have a way to go. The one positive for folks who believe BTC has bottomed, is that BTC has held relatively strong recently with the strength of the US Dollar, however this cannot continue forever. The bottom is yet to be seen! Trading is not always about our skill and wisdom with the charts, it's a game of patience and mental strength to outlast the markets. Don't enter too early by catching a falling knife, that is what the markets want!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by AsEasyAsBTC_IMeanABC
1
CHFJPY BUYCHFJPY currently has a score of +3, or a Buy rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theCHF has a long percentage of 35.39%, and we see that the JPY has a long percentage of 23.05%. This category receives a 0, as institutional traders favor the JPY. Taking a look atCHFJPY, we see that retail traders are 26% long, and 74% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theCHFJPY gets a reading of +1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +1. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the JPY, inflation favors the JPY, unemployment favors the CHF and interest rates favor the CHF
CLong
by Jury_P
Equity Seasonality and Bear Market Sector and Stock Selection Seasonalities are regular and predictable patterns that recur every calendar year. Every industry exhibits unique seasonal trends that are based on fundamental drivers. The best-known seasonal drivers include harvest periods, the timing of interest payments, weather, and investor sentiment. At certain times of the year, tax and balance sheet deadlines, annual or quarterly financial reports, as well as traditional patterns, such as the year-end rally in the stock market all create regular seasonal tendencies. These patterns occur across individual equities, commodities, and indices. Statistical analysis of these seasonal trends and patterns can be an extremely important part of a trading approach. In this piece, we combine this seasonal approach with our approach to sector investing in bear markets to provide examples. When the S&P 500 hit bear market territory on June 13 2022, many investors were left with the bitter taste of disappointment. But this wasn’t happening for the first time: since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced 26 bear markets. “Bears” are part of normal market trends. They are relatively short in duration (especially compared with bull markets), and can provide good investment opportunities. They come into existence when a market falls by at least 20% from recent highs. In our process, we combine balance sheet analysis, sector selection and seasonality. During bear markets, it’s important to concentrate on good balance sheets in “recession-proof” sectors. Most stocks suffer during a recession, but there are sectors that are much more likely to outperform the broad market. In my previous Seasonal Insights, I have discussed luxury stocks (these insight pieces are available on our website) that have proven their strength during difficult times. It is an industry that resists crises: luxury customers, due to their financial wealth, recover very quickly. Stocks that tend to outperform during bear markets can be found in defensive sectors, such as consumer staples, utilities and healthcare. Healthcare is a great example of a haven. One of the stocks to consider from this sector is pharmaceutical giant AbbVie. AbbVie is known as a “low-volatility dividend aristocrat.” This posh expression refers to a group of high-quality S&P 500 stocks recognized for delivering at least 25 straight years of dividend growth. If you decide to enter this trade you should consider its seasonality. Seasonality will offer you the best entry and exit points for a specific stock during the year. It will also prevent you from investing in a name that is entering a seasonally weak period. Keep in mind that a seasonal chart depicts the average price pattern of a stock over the course of a calendar year. It is calculated over several years (unlike a standard price chart that simply shows stock prices over a specific time period). The horizontal axis depicts the time of the year, while the vertical axis shows the level of the seasonal pattern (indexed to 100). From the chart above, it is clearly visible that the end of October until the end of December, over the past 9 years, have been favorable months for this health stock. In this time span of 46 trading days (from October 24 until December 30), shares rose on average by almost 14%. Moreover, since 2013 the pattern returns had a winning strike of 100%, meaning that AbbVie Inc generated gain each year since 2013 during the selected time period. There are also other stocks that are trending high in this sector, such as Pfizer, Eli Lilly, or even insurances like United Health, Anthem and Centene. Another consequence of a recession is that many consumers will curb their spending. However, consumers still need to buy staples such as food, household goods and hygiene items. Demand for these tend to hold up better than other areas of the economy. Large food manufacturers such as Tyson Foods, Kellogg and Mondelez International all fall into this category as do large agribusinesses that focus on the raw materials used in food production, such as Bunge or Archer-Daniels Midland. During difficult times, consumers also tend to look for cheaper alternatives from discount retailers. Even if people shop less during a downturn, they still need to buy staples, and are more likely to treat themselves to a cheaper item at a discount store. Dollar Tree was the best performer in the S&P 500 during the 2008 financial crisis, and was up significantly that year even as the overall market plummeted. There are also personal care and household product manufacturers such as Colgate-Palmolive and Procter & Gamble. All these stocks suffered a smaller decline than other areas of the stock market during the 2008 financial crash and most of them bottomed out months before the broad market. But still be aware of the investment timing. Each stock mentioned here has its strong and weak periods during the year. For instance, Kellogg is worth considering after the August – September period of weakness. Remember, for every bear market, a bull market follows. Yours sincerely, Tea Muratovic Co-Founder and Managing Partner of Seasonax Guest Author for CMT Association seasonax.com Many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum. Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
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NYSE:ABBV
by CMT_Association
12