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Seasonality-trading

Corn Corn Corn 🌽🌽🌽This is my plan for corn. It is being orientated mainly on seasonality. That means: I expect the price to drop a bit further or to go sideways during this summer. According to seasonality, the low should occur around September. Then the corn price should rise again according to typical seasonal patterns. IF the FED keeps increasing the interest rates, the dollar's value will increase, and the price of corn shouldn't get so high. IF the FED stops increasing the interest rates, the price of corn gets an inflation bonus on top. I expect a food shortage to come up at the end of this year or next year, maybe because of the lack of fertilizer, infrastructural problems, or something else.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by p4917
1
Bearish swing trade on GBPAUDI got a bearish signal and a market cycle lining up. Also the COT has both of these currencies being shorted. The Aussie is correlated to gold and this is typically a great month for gold. So it looks like fundamentals and technicals are lining up. On the daily I have a trade entry @ 1.786, but I'm taking the position and managing it on the 4h. Seasonality has the GBPAUD bearish from Jun 26 - Jul 20 Entry @1.786| SL@ 1.7905| TP1 1.750| TP2 1.7200
Short
by forexmilitia
2
Seasonal Futures Market Patterns Japanese Yen USD/JPY Hey traders today I wanted to go over the best Seasonal Patterns in the Japanese Yen Futures or USD/JPY in the Forex Market. The Japanese Yen Futures follows an annual seasonal pattern also correlated with other markets including stocks and bonds. Also the Bank of Japan can heavily influence this market. Knowing when to find these seasonal market patterns on your charts can really benefit us in our trading of the USD/JPY and Japanese Yen Futures. Enjoy, Trade Well Clifford
CME:6J1!
by TradeTheIndex
Copper Futures setting up for a potential long tradeCopper / HG Futures market may be setting up for a move back to the upside. After a huge expanding bullish candle in the beginning of June that saw price blast through the volume Point of Control (POC) which goes back to October last year the price then immediately reversed and we have seen a sell off for the majority of this month. However yesterday we saw a spinning top candle form at a critical point which had been a support level, this has also painted bullish divergence on the RSI indicator. Further to the above technical analysis we have also seen net buying activity from commercial operators which indicates a slight under supply : demand imbalance. On many occasions large commercial buying can lead to a price hike as supply squeeze takes hold. Lastly commodity seasonal reports also show that copper does have a tendency to sell off in the beginning of June but then turns around at the end June and price upwards again through until end of July before dipping again coming into August. I would like to see price close above yesterdays close and hold above ~$4.05 which is roughly a support zone. Ideal entries could be above yesterdays high with price targets at ~$4.25 and / or ~$4.40, which are both just below previous support and resistance levels and large volume clusters. However if price cannot break above and hold $4.05 and instead falls and closes under $4.00 then I would not be looking at any long trades.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by gary_trades
Bottom in SOXL is in?Arguments pro a bullish scenario in $SOX / $SOXL: We have reached the 78.6 % fib retracement in SOXL According to the seasonal chart from the last ten years (see the SEASONAX screenshot at the top), in 9 of 10 cases the $SOX had made a bullish move from the 17th of May until the 8th of June At some point, the semiconductor shortage must affect the prices ... Contra arguments: $DXY is rising / interest rates are going up ... anything else? I can't see any significant arguments standing against the bullish case in $SOXL. If you have anything - please drop a comment below!
AMEX:SOXLLong
by p4917
💥 Natural Gas Gas Gas 📈Do I have to recap the current geopolitics for you? Germany is navigating to its black-out because the gas supply from Russia is being capped (stupid German politicians but okay). Because of the lack of nuclear energy, the Europeans will have a certain electricity problem - at least Germany in the coming winter. So, they will import US natural gas on a large scale. That's the story in a nutshell. The FED and ECB have bloated the circulating money so that some inflation will play its part too. Looking at the technicals: We are about to break this triangle formation to the upside. If this breakout gets confirmed, I'm expecting perhaps a re-test of the trendline or breakout level and then a further upward move. According to the seasonality of the last ten years, Natural Gas has the first spike at the end of April , after this a little bit higher after the middle of May before dropping hard at the beginning of June . Honestly, I don't know if the seasonality in these global circumstances plays a dominant role. It depends on how strong the inflation kicks in. So I'll decide later if I exit my position in May or if I hodl until October/November. No investment advice - just my 2 cents on this topic. ;)
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by p4917
5
Long Oil Swing Trade 4HI am taking a long swing trade on Oil - The fundamentals Russian oil may get banned in Europe(Oil rallies because of demand) and the china lockdown from COVID-19(Oil declines of oversupply) these two fundamentals oppose each other. The technicals say there is a daily support @ $93.00 and an uptrend on the daily timeframe. Seasonality states that Oil via USO ETF is bullish between Apr 28 to May 18 90% of the time. Entry was 102.50 tp1 - 110.25(reduce by 1/3), tp2 - 118.2(reduced by 50%) and let the last 3 run till stop by lower Donchian channel. Let me know what you think in the comments.
TVC:USOILLong
by forexmilitia
Buy Domino's 🍕???Technicals We're now at the 38.2 % Fib retracement, which would be an excellent correction in a bullish trend. We have been in the big picture for over ten years in a bullish trend. So the underlying trend may continue. Concerning the last 15 years, we have a robust bullish seasonality in Domino's Pizza. From the 24th of Feb until the 12th of May, only one year returned with a negative result in the given period. All other technicals are somewhat bearish. Others? I think that even when the economy collapses - people will still eat pizza (and order them ;) ). So I'm positioned long in this stock. It's a speculative position - I don't know if the correction was big enough; otherwise, we will see 395 or even 355 USD prices before it goes up again.
NYSE:DPZLong
by p4917
🔜 bullish move ahead!Technicals The 50 % retracement of the correction from the bullish movement from the high last April was reached. It's a healthy correction so far. We're above the EMA 17 and SMA 30 and 50 on a daily basis. An inverse shoulder-head-shoulder-formation has been built and already broken. As we have cut through the SMA 200 (red) without any major resistance the last time(s), we could consider it not a significant resistance when moving upwards. We've got a bullish seasonal pattern in HEI over the last 15 years considering Seasonality. 80 % win rate in the date range from the 24th of February until the 9th of May. Fundamentals A growth by 1.5 % in 2022 is expected in the construction sector: www.bauindustrie.de Construction volume is growing in 2022: www.tga-fachplaner.de Economic growth is expected in the construction industry: www.deutsche-handwerks-zeitung.de So I'm bullishly invested.
XETR:HEILong
by p4917
Short-trend in CORNIt seems like a bearish flag pattern, which is building up in the Corn futures. So this could result in another short-term bearish impulse. According to the seasonality charts we have at the end of Sep/Oct (depends on which charts you take into consideration) a seasonal low. According to the CME, it's not expected before Nov/Dec (New Crop months). My personal long-term view on the agriculture commodities is of course very bullish - but we can go still one level lower over the next months ...
CBOT:ZC1!
by p4917
August tends to be its strongest bullish month.It's currently in the distribution phase after earning without significantly volume flow . Trend(OBV) uses True Strength Index to analyze "On-Balance-Volume", which measures buying and selling pressure as a cumulative indicator. Horizontal lines and zones are supports (entry for bulls and exit for bears) and resistances (exits for bulls and entries for bears). Diagonal lines from Fib fan/channel are for trend-determination and additional levels for active trading. The market is actively moving so the entries and exits constantly change. Trade small if you want to practice!
NYSE:TWTR
by KhanhC.Hoang