CHFJPY BUYCHFJPY currently has a score of +3, or a Buy rating after adding up all categories.
First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theCHF has a long percentage of 35.39%, and we see that the JPY has a long percentage of 23.05%. This category receives a 0, as institutional traders favor the JPY.
Taking a look atCHFJPY, we see that retail traders are 26% long, and 74% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theCHFJPY gets a reading of +1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa.
Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month.
Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +1.
Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the JPY, inflation favors the JPY, unemployment favors the CHF and interest rates favor the CHF
Seasonality-trading
High probability of seeing higher pricesI've entered long lately. Reasons:
Technically the trendchannel/flag has been broken to the upside. Trendcontinuation is very likely.
According to seasonality (10 years or longer) the price will peak in mid Octoboer/November (depends on the time period).
As problems in the supply chain, inflation etc. doesn't get solved quickly it increases only the price increase.
Cup handle and major resistance breakout with rsi support Carborundum was give a very good breakout of major resistance and cup handle pattern which give a very bullish signals buy it . Today it close above 920 but tomorrow market open with gap down which give us opportunity soo buy it .
Buy carborundum at 884-918
Target 962 1012 1034
Sl 808
650 for the longterm players
Long term Target 1200 1500 1800
Equity Seasonality and Bear Market Sector and Stock Selection Seasonalities are regular and predictable patterns that recur every calendar year. Every industry exhibits unique seasonal trends that are based on fundamental drivers. The best-known seasonal drivers include harvest periods, the timing of interest payments, weather, and investor sentiment. At certain times of the year, tax and balance sheet deadlines, annual or quarterly financial reports, as well as traditional patterns, such as the year-end rally in the stock market all create regular seasonal tendencies. These patterns occur across individual equities, commodities, and indices. Statistical analysis of these seasonal trends and patterns can be an extremely important part of a trading approach. In this piece, we combine this seasonal approach with our approach to sector investing in bear markets to provide examples.
When the S&P 500 hit bear market territory on June 13 2022, many investors were left with the bitter taste of disappointment. But this wasn’t happening for the first time: since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced 26 bear markets.
“Bears” are part of normal market trends. They are relatively short in duration (especially compared with bull markets), and can provide good investment opportunities. They come into existence when a market falls by at least 20% from recent highs.
In our process, we combine balance sheet analysis, sector selection and seasonality. During bear markets, it’s important to concentrate on good balance sheets in “recession-proof” sectors. Most stocks suffer during a recession, but there are sectors that are much more likely to outperform the broad market.
In my previous Seasonal Insights, I have discussed luxury stocks (these insight pieces are available on our website) that have proven their strength during difficult times. It is an industry that resists crises: luxury customers, due to their financial wealth, recover very quickly.
Stocks that tend to outperform during bear markets can be found in defensive sectors, such as consumer staples, utilities and healthcare. Healthcare is a great example of a haven. One of the stocks to consider from this sector is pharmaceutical giant AbbVie. AbbVie is known as a “low-volatility dividend aristocrat.” This posh expression refers to a group of high-quality S&P 500 stocks recognized for delivering at least 25 straight years of dividend growth.
If you decide to enter this trade you should consider its seasonality. Seasonality will offer you the best entry and exit points for a specific stock during the year. It will also prevent you from investing in a name that is entering a seasonally weak period.
Keep in mind that a seasonal chart depicts the average price pattern of a stock over the course of a calendar year. It is calculated over several years (unlike a standard price chart that simply shows stock prices over a specific time period). The horizontal axis depicts the time of the year, while the vertical axis shows the level of the seasonal pattern (indexed to 100). From the chart above, it is clearly visible that the end of October until the end of December, over the past 9 years, have been favorable months for this health stock.
In this time span of 46 trading days (from October 24 until December 30), shares rose on average by almost 14%. Moreover, since 2013 the pattern returns had a winning strike of 100%, meaning that AbbVie Inc generated gain each year since 2013 during the selected time period.
There are also other stocks that are trending high in this sector, such as Pfizer, Eli Lilly, or even insurances like United Health, Anthem and Centene.
Another consequence of a recession is that many consumers will curb their spending. However, consumers still need to buy staples such as food, household goods and hygiene items. Demand for these tend to hold up better than other areas of the economy.
Large food manufacturers such as Tyson Foods, Kellogg and Mondelez International all fall into this category as do large agribusinesses that focus on the raw materials used in food production, such as Bunge or Archer-Daniels Midland.
During difficult times, consumers also tend to look for cheaper alternatives from discount retailers. Even if people shop less during a downturn, they still need to buy staples, and are more likely to treat themselves to a cheaper item at a discount store. Dollar Tree was the best performer in the S&P 500 during the 2008 financial crisis, and was up significantly that year even as the overall market plummeted.
There are also personal care and household product manufacturers such as Colgate-Palmolive and Procter & Gamble. All these stocks suffered a smaller decline than other areas of the stock market during the 2008 financial crash and most of them bottomed out months before the broad market.
But still be aware of the investment timing. Each stock mentioned here has its strong and weak periods during the year. For instance, Kellogg is worth considering after the August – September period of weakness.
Remember, for every bear market, a bull market follows.
Yours sincerely,
Tea Muratovic
Co-Founder and Managing Partner of Seasonax
Guest Author for CMT Association
seasonax.com
Many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum.
Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
Trading Seasonal Market Patterns RecapTrading Seasonal Market Patterns
Hey traders today I wanted to do a recap of all the Seasonal Market Patterns covered in the series. Also putting it all together for yearly trading opportunities. These Seasonal Market Patterns can be very rewarding l to all of us in our trading if we know when to look for them.
Enjoy!
Trade Well,
Clifford
Getting reading for the next bull-run in CORNFinally, I've started scaling in on corn again. It's planned to be a thing of several weeks/months. Then let it go. By the time we're reaching the "scale out" point marked on the chart, the prices should be relatively higher than now. How high? I don't know. But it could be really high.
Corn Corn Corn 🌽🌽🌽This is my plan for corn. It is being orientated mainly on seasonality. That means:
I expect the price to drop a bit further or to go sideways during this summer.
According to seasonality, the low should occur around September.
Then the corn price should rise again according to typical seasonal patterns.
IF the FED keeps increasing the interest rates, the dollar's value will increase, and the price of corn shouldn't get so high.
IF the FED stops increasing the interest rates, the price of corn gets an inflation bonus on top.
I expect a food shortage to come up at the end of this year or next year, maybe because of the lack of fertilizer, infrastructural problems, or something else.
Bearish swing trade on GBPAUDI got a bearish signal and a market cycle lining up. Also the COT has both of these currencies being shorted. The Aussie is correlated to gold and this is typically a great month for gold. So it looks like fundamentals and technicals are lining up.
On the daily I have a trade entry @ 1.786, but I'm taking the position and managing it on the 4h.
Seasonality has the GBPAUD bearish from Jun 26 - Jul 20
Entry @1.786| SL@ 1.7905| TP1 1.750| TP2 1.7200
Seasonal Futures Market Patterns Japanese Yen USD/JPY Hey traders today I wanted to go over the best Seasonal Patterns in the Japanese Yen Futures or USD/JPY in the Forex Market. The Japanese Yen Futures follows an annual seasonal pattern also correlated with other markets including stocks and bonds. Also the Bank of Japan can heavily influence this market. Knowing when to find these seasonal market patterns on your charts can really benefit us in our trading of the USD/JPY and Japanese Yen Futures.
Enjoy,
Trade Well
Clifford
Copper Futures setting up for a potential long tradeCopper / HG Futures market may be setting up for a move back to the upside.
After a huge expanding bullish candle in the beginning of June that saw price blast through the volume Point of Control (POC) which goes back to October last year the price then immediately reversed and we have seen a sell off for the majority of this month. However yesterday we saw a spinning top candle form at a critical point which had been a support level, this has also painted bullish divergence on the RSI indicator.
Further to the above technical analysis we have also seen net buying activity from commercial operators which indicates a slight under supply : demand imbalance. On many occasions large commercial buying can lead to a price hike as supply squeeze takes hold. Lastly commodity seasonal reports also show that copper does have a tendency to sell off in the beginning of June but then turns around at the end June and price upwards again through until end of July before dipping again coming into August.
I would like to see price close above yesterdays close and hold above ~$4.05 which is roughly a support zone. Ideal entries could be above yesterdays high with price targets at ~$4.25 and / or ~$4.40, which are both just below previous support and resistance levels and large volume clusters. However if price cannot break above and hold $4.05 and instead falls and closes under $4.00 then I would not be looking at any long trades.
Bottom in SOXL is in?Arguments pro a bullish scenario in $SOX / $SOXL:
We have reached the 78.6 % fib retracement in SOXL
According to the seasonal chart from the last ten years (see the SEASONAX screenshot at the top), in 9 of 10 cases the $SOX had made a bullish move from the 17th of May until the 8th of June
At some point, the semiconductor shortage must affect the prices ...
Contra arguments:
$DXY is rising / interest rates are going up
... anything else?
I can't see any significant arguments standing against the bullish case in $SOXL. If you have anything - please drop a comment below!
💥 Natural Gas Gas Gas 📈Do I have to recap the current geopolitics for you? Germany is navigating to its black-out because the gas supply from Russia is being capped (stupid German politicians but okay). Because of the lack of nuclear energy, the Europeans will have a certain electricity problem - at least Germany in the coming winter. So, they will import US natural gas on a large scale.
That's the story in a nutshell. The FED and ECB have bloated the circulating money so that some inflation will play its part too.
Looking at the technicals:
We are about to break this triangle formation to the upside. If this breakout gets confirmed, I'm expecting perhaps a re-test of the trendline or breakout level and then a further upward move.
According to the seasonality of the last ten years, Natural Gas has the first spike at the end of April , after this a little bit higher after the middle of May before dropping hard at the beginning of June .
Honestly, I don't know if the seasonality in these global circumstances plays a dominant role. It depends on how strong the inflation kicks in. So I'll decide later if I exit my position in May or if I hodl until October/November.
No investment advice - just my 2 cents on this topic. ;)
Long Oil Swing Trade 4HI am taking a long swing trade on Oil - The fundamentals Russian oil may get banned in Europe(Oil rallies because of demand) and the china lockdown from COVID-19(Oil declines of oversupply) these two fundamentals oppose each other. The technicals say there is a daily support @ $93.00 and an uptrend on the daily timeframe. Seasonality states that Oil via USO ETF is bullish between Apr 28 to May 18 90% of the time.
Entry was 102.50 tp1 - 110.25(reduce by 1/3), tp2 - 118.2(reduced by 50%) and let the last 3 run till stop by lower Donchian channel.
Let me know what you think in the comments.
Buy Domino's 🍕???Technicals
We're now at the 38.2 % Fib retracement, which would be an excellent correction in a bullish trend.
We have been in the big picture for over ten years in a bullish trend. So the underlying trend may continue.
Concerning the last 15 years, we have a robust bullish seasonality in Domino's Pizza. From the 24th of Feb until the 12th of May, only one year returned with a negative result in the given period.
All other technicals are somewhat bearish.
Others? I think that even when the economy collapses - people will still eat pizza (and order them ;) ).
So I'm positioned long in this stock. It's a speculative position - I don't know if the correction was big enough; otherwise, we will see 395 or even 355 USD prices before it goes up again.
🔜 bullish move ahead!Technicals
The 50 % retracement of the correction from the bullish movement from the high last April was reached. It's a healthy correction so far.
We're above the EMA 17 and SMA 30 and 50 on a daily basis.
An inverse shoulder-head-shoulder-formation has been built and already broken.
As we have cut through the SMA 200 (red) without any major resistance the last time(s), we could consider it not a significant resistance when moving upwards.
We've got a bullish seasonal pattern in HEI over the last 15 years considering Seasonality. 80 % win rate in the date range from the 24th of February until the 9th of May.
Fundamentals
A growth by 1.5 % in 2022 is expected in the construction sector: www.bauindustrie.de
Construction volume is growing in 2022: www.tga-fachplaner.de
Economic growth is expected in the construction industry: www.deutsche-handwerks-zeitung.de
So I'm bullishly invested.
Rising CornThe season has begun - seems like corn has bottomed, broken the downward correction, and is now beginning to overcome the different MAs.
According to the seasonality, we should see the high in corn around June-July next year. I expect therefore at least the reaching of the former high at 3.15 EUR.
But you should of course take a deeper look at the underlying asset (ZC1!) and not only on this leveraged derivate.
Short-trend in CORNIt seems like a bearish flag pattern, which is building up in the Corn futures. So this could result in another short-term bearish impulse.
According to the seasonality charts we have at the end of Sep/Oct (depends on which charts you take into consideration) a seasonal low. According to the CME, it's not expected before Nov/Dec (New Crop months).
My personal long-term view on the agriculture commodities is of course very bullish - but we can go still one level lower over the next months ...
August tends to be its strongest bullish month.It's currently in the distribution phase after earning without significantly volume flow .
Trend(OBV) uses True Strength Index to analyze "On-Balance-Volume", which measures buying and selling pressure as a cumulative indicator.
Horizontal lines and zones are supports (entry for bulls and exit for bears) and resistances (exits for bulls and entries for bears).
Diagonal lines from Fib fan/channel are for trend-determination and additional levels for active trading.
The market is actively moving so the entries and exits constantly change. Trade small if you want to practice!
Bank nifty call at june 26,600 1-Bullish Divergence in hourly and 2 hour frame
2- Sited on channel support
Bank Nifty is sited at a good position for the call.
