Long Oil Swing Trade 4HI am taking a long swing trade on Oil - The fundamentals Russian oil may get banned in Europe(Oil rallies because of demand) and the china lockdown from COVID-19(Oil declines of oversupply) these two fundamentals oppose each other. The technicals say there is a daily support @ $93.00 and an uptrend on the daily timeframe. Seasonality states that Oil via USO ETF is bullish between Apr 28 to May 18 90% of the time.
Entry was 102.50 tp1 - 110.25(reduce by 1/3), tp2 - 118.2(reduced by 50%) and let the last 3 run till stop by lower Donchian channel.
Let me know what you think in the comments.
Seasonality-trading
Buy Domino's 🍕???Technicals
We're now at the 38.2 % Fib retracement, which would be an excellent correction in a bullish trend.
We have been in the big picture for over ten years in a bullish trend. So the underlying trend may continue.
Concerning the last 15 years, we have a robust bullish seasonality in Domino's Pizza. From the 24th of Feb until the 12th of May, only one year returned with a negative result in the given period.
All other technicals are somewhat bearish.
Others? I think that even when the economy collapses - people will still eat pizza (and order them ;) ).
So I'm positioned long in this stock. It's a speculative position - I don't know if the correction was big enough; otherwise, we will see 395 or even 355 USD prices before it goes up again.
🔜 bullish move ahead!Technicals
The 50 % retracement of the correction from the bullish movement from the high last April was reached. It's a healthy correction so far.
We're above the EMA 17 and SMA 30 and 50 on a daily basis.
An inverse shoulder-head-shoulder-formation has been built and already broken.
As we have cut through the SMA 200 (red) without any major resistance the last time(s), we could consider it not a significant resistance when moving upwards.
We've got a bullish seasonal pattern in HEI over the last 15 years considering Seasonality. 80 % win rate in the date range from the 24th of February until the 9th of May.
Fundamentals
A growth by 1.5 % in 2022 is expected in the construction sector: www.bauindustrie.de
Construction volume is growing in 2022: www.tga-fachplaner.de
Economic growth is expected in the construction industry: www.deutsche-handwerks-zeitung.de
So I'm bullishly invested.
Rising CornThe season has begun - seems like corn has bottomed, broken the downward correction, and is now beginning to overcome the different MAs.
According to the seasonality, we should see the high in corn around June-July next year. I expect therefore at least the reaching of the former high at 3.15 EUR.
But you should of course take a deeper look at the underlying asset (ZC1!) and not only on this leveraged derivate.
Short-trend in CORNIt seems like a bearish flag pattern, which is building up in the Corn futures. So this could result in another short-term bearish impulse.
According to the seasonality charts we have at the end of Sep/Oct (depends on which charts you take into consideration) a seasonal low. According to the CME, it's not expected before Nov/Dec (New Crop months).
My personal long-term view on the agriculture commodities is of course very bullish - but we can go still one level lower over the next months ...
August tends to be its strongest bullish month.It's currently in the distribution phase after earning without significantly volume flow .
Trend(OBV) uses True Strength Index to analyze "On-Balance-Volume", which measures buying and selling pressure as a cumulative indicator.
Horizontal lines and zones are supports (entry for bulls and exit for bears) and resistances (exits for bulls and entries for bears).
Diagonal lines from Fib fan/channel are for trend-determination and additional levels for active trading.
The market is actively moving so the entries and exits constantly change. Trade small if you want to practice!