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Seasonality

NzdUsd could rise to 0.58 (swing trade)The final quarter of 2024 was particularly challenging for the NZD, with the currency declining by 800 pips from its peak to its lowest point. More significantly, this drop represents a devaluation of over 12%, which is substantial for a major currency pair. As 2025 begins, however, OANDA:NZDUSD has entered a consolidation phase, holding above the critical support zone near 0.5550. This level is noteworthy and deserves attention as a potential turning point. While the overall trend remains bearish, a rebound from this key support area is likely. If this occurs, the pair could move higher toward the 0.58 resistance level. In summary, dips near the support zone present buying opportunities with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, targeting a return of at least 1:2.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
9
EUR USD - the battle of parityG'day traders, Welcome back to a new trading year. First up, i'll be taking a look at the EURO/USD as it is still in a strong downward to the right pattern respecting the strong curve of the weekly trendline. Please see below the Daily and weekly charts marked up. Follow along the video and hope it assists with your trading. I'll be looking for sells upon daily closes, weekly set and forget supply limits. Demand limits. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily) Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed. Previous charts Daily Chart Weekly Chart Updated in line with the video: Daily Weekly Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 8+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. LVPA MMXXV
Short
by LupaCapital
Bitcoin Cash golden cross and January 20thBitcoin Cash golden cross is a buy signal before January 20th. When a 100-day moving average crosses above a 200-day moving average, it's commonly referred to as a "golden cross". Indicating a potential bullish signal, suggesting a possible shift from a bearish trend to a bullish trend in the market. In 2023 BCH went from a low on January 20th to a high of + 214%. In 2024 BCH went from a low on January 20th to a high of + 207%. Is the 3rd time a charm? If BCH can go +200% from January 20th 2025 the high would be around 1300 per Bitcoin Cash! Trade idea: Long = sma100 stop = sma200 profit = 1300
COINBASE:BCHUSDLong
by Options360
3
I've got some wisdom to share. Take some notes #BitcoinHey members, apologies for being offline for a while...I'm back (kinda) Tradingview is happy to ban me from speaking to you and for these reasons I might not be making videos on here for much longer Today I want to share with you some truths that others dont speak about. It's beyond trading mentality, which is why it works Please learn from my pain (or don't, but do) "Energy" runs the you and it runs the markets, focus on respecting market energy and your managing your emotions within it Know the game you're in Humans have emotions, and if can't manage them those then you're not playing the game right The market has energy, if you can't identify the energy of the market then you're not playing the game right Hopefully I'll be catching up with you soon Ciao for now. Blayno
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Blayno_MTOPS
Traeger | COOK | Long at $2.50Traeger NYSE:COOK is in an accumulation zone and approaching a change in the downward trend based on my selected simple moving average. Insiders have shown confidence in future price improvement by buying shares and being awarded options in the low $2s. With a 58M float and anticipated earnings improvement through 2027, this ticker may be poised for a run soon. There is a tiny gap in the daily chart between $2.19 and $2.20 that may get filled before then, but Traeger has a strong brand name and can be found in multiple big box stores. A slowing economy may dampen this move in the near-term, but NYSE:COOK is in a personal buy zone at $2.50. Target #1 - $4.15 Target #2 - $5.00 Target #3 - $8.50 Target #4 - $19.00 (very long-term...)
NYSE:COOKLong
by WorthlessViews
$CHILLGUY How to Spot Euphoria LessonHere's a good lesson on spotting EUPHORIA. I was over a friend's house who is a retail crypto trader on Thanksgiving. He was telling that I had to buy $CHILLGUY because its the biggest meme ever. I didn't even bother looking at the chart because of my past experience knowing how to gauge market sentiment, but I replied, "you telling me this should be an instant sell signal for you". From that day on, it was DOWN-ONLY 80% for the next 1.5 months 🤓
CRYPTO:CHILLGUYUSDEducation
by jonnieking
$COOKIE vs $???????: Same Total Supply, Same MomentumWhen comparing MEXC:VIRTUALUSDT and BYBIT:COOKIEUSDT , an exciting dynamic is unfolding that demands attention. Both cryptocurrencies have identical total supplies, providing a clear framework for evaluating their relative potential. On the technical side, both are displaying strong bullish momentum, suggesting the market is optimistic about both projects. But here’s the key difference: COOKIE boasts stronger fundamentals. Whether it’s its real-world use case, adoption metrics, or team backing, COOKIE clearly has an edge over $VIRTUAL. Despite this, COOKIE remains 10 times cheaper than $VIRTUAL. Looking ahead, $COOKIE not only has the potential to catch up to VIRTUAL valuation but, given its fundamentals, could even surpass VIRTUAL all-time high. If this momentum continues, $COOKIE might emerge as the stronger performer over the coming weeks or months. Do you believe $COOKIE has what it takes to surpass VIRTUAL previous top price, or will VIRTUAL continue to dominate? What’s your take on the potential rebalancing between these two assets? Let’s discuss!
Long
by patriq8
10
Total 3 Crypto Market Cap and US10YIn our ‘Daily dose of Chart’ today we are looking into Crypto and US10Y rates. We are plotting Total 3 Crypto market Cap vs US 10 Y. Total 3 Crypto Market Cap which is the sum of all the total Crypto market cap except BTC and ETH. The Total 3 was in a bearish pattern throughout 2022 and 2024 when the US10Y was making a head and shoulder pattern. After completing the head and shoulder pattern, the yields fell which gave Total 3 to break out of a 2 year base. But with the recent breakout in US10Y rates, the Total 3 is suffering a short term bearish market. We see a cup and handle forming on the weekly chart for the Total 3. But my assessment is that the handle formation will not complete until the beginning of Q2 2025 on the weekly chart. We will revisit the chart in April 2025.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Short
by RabishankarBiswal
Potential Wyckoff reversal pattern BTCUSDHi everybody. I want to pick your brain about my swing trade / position trade entry idea on BTC. Investment thesis: FUNDAMENTALS: Long Term: Liquidity expanding + China Stimulus / Raoul Paul GMI concepts. Time based: End of quarter rally + cycle stage should come with a rally. TECHNICALS Weekly: FVG in Support tested several times. Daily: Daily wicks and Bullish FVG Hourly: Wyckoff (sort of) strucutre: Sell climax + penetration + BOut Res + retest RR: 3:1 approx.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by SensumCommunem
EURUSD D1 BEARISH, RETURN TO PARITY ?Lot of confluence factors indicate that EUR is going to give way to USD COT Delta = black line dropping hard, Institutions are heavily short YIELD Differential = green/red line, nosedive lower LIQUIDITY Differential = orange line = FED more restrictive than ECB ? GAPS = Next Weekly gap is 150 pips lower @ 1.01 = Yearly S1 PIVOTS = Price below Yearly PP, heading for Yearly S1 @ 1.0050 = GAP Low FUNDAMENTALS = USD beats EUR on pretty much all metrics ECONOMICS = Germany, the EU-powerhouse, in multi-year recession POLITICS = Trust is fading, most EU-countries (will) vote for change Looking for a drop in price to 1.01, probably return to parity before spring
Short
by xtrader1
2024 SOY: Start Of the Year, Market OutlookIn this SOY, I will be discussing the market outlook to help retail investors plan for the year ahead. Please note that this is not financial advice, and I am not licensed to provide such advice. The insights shared here are my personal opinions based on statistics, technical analysis, macroeconomics, and seasonality statistics to manage maximum position sizing on a per-asset basis. You should always consult a licensed professional before making any and all financial decisions. The main tickers I will be focusing on are SPY, QQQ, MSTR (which is included in QQQ), and VIX. Macro Economics Overview Politics will be the single most deterministic factor for performance this year and over the next four years. Politics defines policy, policy defines macroeconomic conditions, and macros determine both the direction of a trend as well as the strength of that trend . Therefore, only inexperienced or uneducated traders ignore or object to the influence of politics when making financial decisions. Additionally, we must consider several legitimate concerns that could impact the market, including: - Environmental disasters - Pandemics - Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) - Federal Reserve interest rates - Sanctions and tariffs - Cyber warfare - The potential for conflict with China - SPY VS QQQ These factors must be discussed, evaluated, and modeled in order to properly assess the risks associated with individual portfolios. With this outline out of the way, let begin... Environmental Disasters The unpredictability of natural disasters, especially in a climate-altering world, can disrupt entire sectors, particularly agriculture, commodities, energy, and insurance markets. This is perhaps one of the most lucrative areas to make money, as 30+ years of systemic mispricing of risk has compounded due to the entire field of economics and finance treating climate science as an "externality." This logical error and mismanagement means that insurance companies are now scrambling to rework their pricing and risk models, pulling out of markets. There will undoubtedly be political pushback against companies as a direct result. Companies such as the following are most likely to be effected by this: AIG, ALL, PGR, PRU, MET, TRV, CB, BRK.A, BRK.B, LMRK, CI, UNM, FNF, AFG, AFL, MFC. On a more broad market, leveraged ETFs like XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund) and DRN (Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3X Shares) can provide indirect exposure to sectors impacted by environmental disasters, particularly in the energy and insurance markets and Bear Call Spreads or Bull Put Spreads on these tickers may be more capital efficient way to hedge against risk compared to standard puts/calls. If you're looking to play this issue, these tickers and specific sectors may be worth doing your own research on and taking whatever appropriate step are relevant to you and only after speaking to a licensed professional. Pandemics The impact of pandemics on global markets can be both immediate and far-reaching. Historically, health crises like COVID-19 have caused significant disruptions across supply chains, labor markets, and consumer behavior, while exacerbating volatility in sectors such as travel, hospitality, and healthcare. Unfortunately the incoming American administration seems to not have learned their lesson that defunding pandemic response teams or the WHO is objectively a bad idea for everyone and has catastrophic economic and market impacts. The economic fallout from pandemics can lead to governments introducing lockdowns, stimulus measures (and inflation), and mass quarantines, all of which directly affect market sentiment and asset performance. While the immediate market response is often sharp and negative, opportunities exist for those who are able to identify long-term shifts in consumer behavior and industry transformation. For those looking to profit from potential market dislocations, ETFs like XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund) and XLY (Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund) may provide exposure to sectors that experience heightened volatility during pandemics. Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) The CMBS market has shown vulnerability in recent years, particularly in the wake of rising delinquency rates on office and retail spaces. This risk may also be compounded by underwater bonds such as the one's held by silicon valley bank and the recent increases in the 10 yr. Banks holding large portfolios of CMBS have been reluctant to acknowledge the true value of these assets, waiting for them to transition from Hold-to-Maturity (HTM) status to Other Than Temporarily Impaired (OTTI) status, at which point they will be forced to mark these assets to market, likely at a steep loss. This has the potential to destabilize the financials of banks heavily invested in commercial real estate, particularly those holding assets tied to struggling sectors such as office buildings and retail malls. Leveraged ETFs like DRV (Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares) and SRS (ProShares UltraShort Real Estate) can be used to gain short exposure to the real estate sector, which is vulnerable to the risk of widespread CMBS impairments. Federal Reserve Interest Rates The Federal Reserve's interest rate policies remain a primary influence on market behavior. A rising interest rate environment typically pressures asset prices, particularly in sectors reliant on cheap credit, such as technology, real estate, and consumer discretionary stocks. Conversely, lower interest rates can fuel asset inflation, driving up equity and bond prices. As interest rates increase, companies with high debt levels or those in capital-intensive industries are more likely to face pressure on their earnings and stock prices. Leveraged ETFs like XLK (Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund) and XHB (SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF) are often impacted by rate hikes, which raise borrowing costs. On the other hand, TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) tends to be more sensitive to lower interest rates. Sanctions and Tariffs Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving sanctions and tariffs, can have an immediate and profound impact on market dynamics. When countries impose tariffs or sanctions, it can disrupt global supply chains, raise production costs, and lead to higher inflation. Sectors such as industrials, energy, and manufacturing tend to be the most sensitive to trade policies, with tariffs acting as a hidden tax on businesses that depend on cross-border trade. To hedge against such risks, leveraged ETFs like XLI (Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund) and XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund) may be relevant, depending on how tariffs are applied. Shorting specific ETFs through Put Spreads or Bear Call Spreads can also be used to mitigate exposure to sectors most affected by escalating trade barriers or sanctions. Cyber Warfare The rise of cyber warfare represents a significant risk to businesses and economies globally. As attacks on critical infrastructure, financial institutions, and large corporations increase, markets may react with volatility, especially in tech-heavy sectors or industries that are heavily reliant on digital systems. The increasing prevalence of ransomware, data breaches, and other malicious attacks can lead to costly disruptions, decreased consumer trust, and regulatory fines. Companies in sectors such as technology, defense, and financial services are at the highest risk of cyber-attacks. Leveraged ETFs like HACK (ETFMG Prime Cyber Security ETF) can provide targeted exposure to companies focused on cybersecurity. Additionally, options strategies such as Protective Puts and Straddle Spreads can be useful for managing risk in the event of a significant cyberattack impacting the market or a specific company. The Potential for Conflict with China The growing tensions between the U.S. and China present a major risk to global markets, particularly in sectors reliant on international trade. If conflict were to escalate, either economically or militarily, there could be profound consequences on global supply chains, trade agreements, and investor confidence. A leveraged ETF like YINN (Direxion Daily China Bull 3X Shares) can provide exposure to Chinese equities, while YANG (Direxion Daily China Bear 3X Shares) provides inverse exposure to China’s stock market. When Russia decided to engage in a costly conflict, which to date has sacrificed more russian lives than the total death of both nukes on Japan, leveraged ETFs like RUSL (Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3X Shares) became a particularly effective tool for profiting from volatility associated with geopolitical instability, though the delist made it difficult to fully capture such profits. MSTR’s Impact on SPY vs QQQ Performance Differentials The inclusion of MSTR (MicroStrategy) in QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) is a key factor that could cause significant performance differentials between SPY and QQQ . MSTR's heavy exposure to Bitcoin ties its performance directly to the volatile crypto market. A future crypto winter—a prolonged bear market in crypto—could cause MSTR to underperform, negatively affecting QQQ due to its weighting in the ETF. If this happens, QQQ may undergo rebalancing, potentially removing or reducing MSTR's weight to mitigate the impact. This would create a divergence between QQQ and SPY , as SPY is unaffected by crypto’s volatility and remains more stable with its broader sector exposure. Thank for reading this year's SOY! I hope you enjoyed this and I wish you all the best luck navigating the market. Don't forget to hit the boost, follow and consider gifting a subscription if this helped you in anyway.
AMEX:SPY
by livingdracula