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Seasonality

Shiba FRACTAL : FEB 2024 - 330% in 2 WEEKSBINANCE:SHIBUSDT Many altcoins are currently in Accumulation Phase. This is the part of the cycle where there seems to be very little action, and the price moves in a range and sideways. It's safe to say that we can expect sideways/range trading until BTC moves the market. In a previous update, I mentioned how BTC loves Decembers: The good news, is that this makes for an excellent time to BUY back into any market. The lowest risk option here would require some patience though, because the accumulation cycle often lasts month. Luckily - we are already a month in of mostly range trading. Here's a look at SHIBA's best buy zones in more detail, as well as other altcoins that are in or approaching the ideal buy zone:
by CryptoCheck-
Technology and Crypto Cycle Global liquidity leads all. The winners and main beneficiaries of increased liquidity have been and will continue to be technology and crypto. Do not fight the tape. Halving years and post halving years coinciding with the US presidential election and the debt refinance cycle for the government is a breeding ground for increased liquidity on the horizon. Bears will continue to post recession porn but the chart speaks for itself. This time is not different. You cannot call for a black swan that is not how it works. Everyone debating over whether or not the bull is over or is only just beginning is classic disbelief right before the euphoria. Lots of people on the timeline shorting AT LOWS and becoming max bearish is the sign. Oct 2023 - Mar 2024 was just a sample of what is ahead. Being consistently bullish and optimistic has offered substantial returns the past couple of decades and will continue to do so as technology improves in the next decades to come. Short to med term I would not be surprised if we see some pullbacks and ranging in equities as well as crypto. But heading into Q4 and especially beginning of 2025 I expect significant strength in the markets. BTC - Orange NDX - White Global Liquidity - Teal
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by bhx10
1
Positioning in SPY: Navigating Volatility in August & SeptemberDisclaimer: The following article is based on a combination of data obtained from TradingView's seasonality indicator and Python code that analyzes seasonality on a 52-week basis over a 10-20 year period. The Kelly method discussed is simply a risk management tactic and should not be interpreted as financial advice. All data and analysis presented are made in good faith and are intended to advocate for data-driven position sizing rather than encouraging or discouraging any specific bullish or bearish positions. Readers should conduct their own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. As we approach the late summer months, it's critical to consider the historical patterns of SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) and position oneself strategically to minimize potential losses while also capturing upside opportunities. August and September have often been challenging months for the market, characterized by heightened volatility and occasional sharp declines. However, completely staying out of the market can result in missed opportunities, especially if the market defies historical trends and rallies. Here’s how to balance these risks with a prudent strategy. Historical Performance and Seasonality Historically, SPY tends to experience increased volatility during the late summer, with some of the most significant drops often occurring in these months. From the data, Week 33, for instance, shows a mean return of -0.59% with only 42.86% positive returns. Week 39, even worse, shows an average return of -0.88%, with just 14.29% of the weeks ending in positive territory over the past decade. The seasonality chart provided further reinforces this pattern, showing consistent negative returns during late August and September in previous years. This suggests a cautious approach is warranted. Technical Indicators: Avoiding Overbought Conditions When entering a position in SPY during this volatile period, it is essential to avoid buying when the market is overbought, as indicated by the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and Bollinger Bands (BB). RSI Considerations: The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the speed and change of price movements. An RSI above 70 typically signals that an asset is overbought, and a pullback may be imminent. Before entering a position, ensure that the RSI is below 70, preferably closer to 50 or lower, indicating neutral to slightly oversold conditions. 20-Day Bollinger Bands (BB): Bollinger Bands plot standard deviations above and below a moving average. When the price touches or exceeds the upper Bollinger Band, it may indicate that the asset is overbought. Waiting for the price to either move back within the bands or approach the lower band provides a better entry point. 52-Week Bollinger Bands: This is a broader timeframe that can help avoid long-term overbought conditions. Ensure SPY is not trading above the upper 52-week Bollinger Band to avoid entering at potentially unsustainable price levels. Kelly Method and Raw Data to Consider: Betting Calendar Using Kelly Method Kelly Criterion for Position Sizing: Determine Kelly Fraction: b = net odds received on the wager p = probability of winning (positive return) q = probability of losing (negative return) For each week, calculate the Kelly ratio based on historical data. Adjust the bet size each week according to the Kelly ratio, focusing on the following: High Kelly Ratio (>0.2): Increase exposure to TQQQ. Moderate Kelly Ratio (0 to 0.2): Hold current positions or add conservatively. Ticker: SPY, Week: 1 Volatility: 0.0257 Positive Returns: 71.43% Kelly Ratio: 0.2143 Mean Return: 0.57% Standard Deviation: 2.57% Highest Return: 3.46% in 2012 Lowest Return: -5.99% in 2016 Mean Volume: 111390641.79 Highest Volume: 181713040.00 in 2016 Lowest Volume: 68430450.00 in 2020 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 2.50 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 71.43% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 28.57% Kelly Fraction: 0.6000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 2 Volatility: 0.0143 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: 0.46% Standard Deviation: 1.43% Highest Return: 2.66% in 2023 Lowest Return: -2.09% in 2016 Mean Volume: 107009064.29 Highest Volume: 229416540.00 in 2016 Lowest Volume: 53189780.00 in 2020 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 3 Volatility: 0.0244 Positive Returns: 50.00% Kelly Ratio: 0.0000 Mean Return: -0.04% Standard Deviation: 2.44% Highest Return: 2.87% in 2019 Lowest Return: -5.88% in 2022 Mean Volume: 128605387.86 Highest Volume: 261616225.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 53442500.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00% Kelly Fraction: 0.0000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 4 Volatility: 0.0179 Positive Returns: 50.00% Kelly Ratio: 0.0000 Mean Return: 0.13% Standard Deviation: 1.79% Highest Return: 2.46% in 2023 Lowest Return: -3.35% in 2021 Mean Volume: 129307826.43 Highest Volume: 259350300.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 66549675.00 in 2020 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00% Kelly Fraction: 0.0000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 5 Volatility: 0.0245 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: 0.17% Standard Deviation: 2.45% Highest Return: 4.69% in 2021 Lowest Return: -3.93% in 2018 Mean Volume: 129932678.57 Highest Volume: 285445020.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 57701560.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 6 Volatility: 0.0207 Positive Returns: 64.29% Kelly Ratio: 0.1429 Mean Return: 0.29% Standard Deviation: 2.07% Highest Return: 3.23% in 2020 Lowest Return: -5.00% in 2018 Mean Volume: 132183114.29 Highest Volume: 269419900.00 in 2018 Lowest Volume: 45315460.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71% Kelly Fraction: 0.4444 Ticker: SPY, Week: 7 Volatility: 0.0156 Positive Returns: 78.57% Kelly Ratio: 0.2857 Mean Return: 1.48% Standard Deviation: 1.56% Highest Return: 4.37% in 2018 Lowest Return: -1.39% in 2022 Mean Volume: 103561883.93 Highest Volume: 186139025.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 52002260.00 in 2020 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 3.67 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 78.57% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 21.43% Kelly Fraction: 0.7273 Ticker: SPY, Week: 8 Volatility: 0.0131 Positive Returns: 50.00% Kelly Ratio: 0.0000 Mean Return: -0.22% Standard Deviation: 1.31% Highest Return: 1.62% in 2016 Lowest Return: -2.68% in 2023 Mean Volume: 118643622.50 Highest Volume: 215704675.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 69515225.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00% Kelly Fraction: 0.0000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 9 Volatility: 0.0356 Positive Returns: 71.43% Kelly Ratio: 0.2143 Mean Return: -0.24% Standard Deviation: 3.56% Highest Return: 3.14% in 2010 Lowest Return: -11.63% in 2020 Mean Volume: 133841187.14 Highest Volume: 248820940.00 in 2020 Lowest Volume: 66189040.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 2.50 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 71.43% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 28.57% Kelly Fraction: 0.6000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 10 Volatility: 0.0225 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: 0.01% Standard Deviation: 2.25% Highest Return: 3.60% in 2018 Lowest Return: -4.59% in 2023 Mean Volume: 127773401.43 Highest Volume: 226098020.00 in 2020 Lowest Volume: 74267920.00 in 2017 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 11 Volatility: 0.0327 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: 0.04% Standard Deviation: 3.27% Highest Return: 6.03% in 2022 Lowest Return: -8.53% in 2020 Mean Volume: 144256381.43 Highest Volume: 312592900.00 in 2020 Lowest Volume: 74846600.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 12 Volatility: 0.0456 Positive Returns: 50.00% Kelly Ratio: 0.0000 Mean Return: -0.84% Standard Deviation: 4.56% Highest Return: 2.75% in 2011 Lowest Return: -14.70% in 2020 Mean Volume: 132598345.71 Highest Volume: 304677680.00 in 2020 Lowest Volume: 76852900.00 in 2022 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00% Kelly Fraction: 0.0000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 13 Volatility: 0.0295 Positive Returns: 85.71% Kelly Ratio: 0.3571 Mean Return: 1.62% Standard Deviation: 2.95% Highest Return: 10.86% in 2020 Lowest Return: -2.23% in 2015 Mean Volume: 119388588.93 Highest Volume: 268584800.00 in 2020 Lowest Volume: 72870220.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 6.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 85.71% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 14.29% Kelly Fraction: 0.8333 Ticker: SPY, Week: 14 Volatility: 0.0135 Positive Returns: 35.71% Kelly Ratio: -0.1429 Mean Return: -0.03% Standard Deviation: 1.35% Highest Return: 2.69% in 2021 Lowest Return: -1.88% in 2020 Mean Volume: 108302020.36 Highest Volume: 173805360.00 in 2020 Lowest Volume: 58710140.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.56 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 35.71% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 64.29% Kelly Fraction: -0.8000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 15 Volatility: 0.0349 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: 0.97% Standard Deviation: 3.49% Highest Return: 11.70% in 2020 Lowest Return: -2.62% in 2014 Mean Volume: 112186273.93 Highest Volume: 183315525.00 in 2020 Lowest Volume: 59426200.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 16 Volatility: 0.0162 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: 0.42% Standard Deviation: 1.62% Highest Return: 3.10% in 2020 Lowest Return: -2.66% in 2022 Mean Volume: 110959992.14 Highest Volume: 181774480.00 in 2013 Lowest Volume: 57181675.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 17 Volatility: 0.0167 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: 0.20% Standard Deviation: 1.67% Highest Return: 1.97% in 2011 Lowest Return: -3.20% in 2022 Mean Volume: 105344894.29 Highest Volume: 252752120.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 50297380.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 18 Volatility: 0.0204 Positive Returns: 42.86% Kelly Ratio: -0.0714 Mean Return: -0.52% Standard Deviation: 2.04% Highest Return: 1.97% in 2013 Lowest Return: -6.46% in 2010 Mean Volume: 129276537.14 Highest Volume: 431397980.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 64171980.00 in 2017 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.75 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 42.86% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 57.14% Kelly Fraction: -0.3333 Ticker: SPY, Week: 19 Volatility: 0.0170 Positive Returns: 35.71% Kelly Ratio: -0.1429 Mean Return: 0.17% Standard Deviation: 1.70% Highest Return: 3.38% in 2020 Lowest Return: -2.27% in 2022 Mean Volume: 115531918.57 Highest Volume: 305934080.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 54062740.00 in 2017 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.56 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 35.71% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 64.29% Kelly Fraction: -0.8000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 20 Volatility: 0.0196 Positive Returns: 35.71% Kelly Ratio: -0.1429 Mean Return: -0.80% Standard Deviation: 1.96% Highest Return: 2.15% in 2013 Lowest Return: -4.40% in 2012 Mean Volume: 131334362.86 Highest Volume: 422473400.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 63334740.00 in 2018 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.56 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 35.71% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 64.29% Kelly Fraction: -0.8000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 21 Volatility: 0.0192 Positive Returns: 78.57% Kelly Ratio: 0.2857 Mean Return: 1.20% Standard Deviation: 1.92% Highest Return: 6.44% in 2022 Lowest Return: -1.06% in 2019 Mean Volume: 108077414.29 Highest Volume: 322970300.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 53396320.00 in 2017 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 3.67 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 78.57% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 21.43% Kelly Fraction: 0.7273 Ticker: SPY, Week: 22 Volatility: 0.0183 Positive Returns: 50.00% Kelly Ratio: 0.0000 Mean Return: -0.36% Standard Deviation: 1.83% Highest Return: 2.98% in 2020 Lowest Return: -2.98% in 2012 Mean Volume: 118720716.07 Highest Volume: 285811750.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 54347825.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00% Kelly Fraction: 0.0000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 23 Volatility: 0.0265 Positive Returns: 64.29% Kelly Ratio: 0.1429 Mean Return: 0.88% Standard Deviation: 2.65% Highest Return: 4.86% in 2020 Lowest Return: -5.10% in 2022 Mean Volume: 113514415.71 Highest Volume: 284485100.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 48743300.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71% Kelly Fraction: 0.4444 Ticker: SPY, Week: 24 Volatility: 0.0234 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: -0.56% Standard Deviation: 2.34% Highest Return: 2.58% in 2023 Lowest Return: -5.77% in 2022 Mean Volume: 124912205.71 Highest Volume: 242089180.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 53561320.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 25 Volatility: 0.0248 Positive Returns: 50.00% Kelly Ratio: 0.0000 Mean Return: 0.42% Standard Deviation: 2.48% Highest Return: 6.50% in 2022 Lowest Return: -3.49% in 2010 Mean Volume: 123611130.36 Highest Volume: 242877220.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 56641500.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00% Kelly Fraction: 0.0000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 26 Volatility: 0.0273 Positive Returns: 42.86% Kelly Ratio: -0.0714 Mean Return: 0.19% Standard Deviation: 2.73% Highest Return: 5.49% in 2011 Lowest Return: -5.34% in 2010 Mean Volume: 119984470.00 Highest Volume: 288655960.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 53019340.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.75 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 42.86% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 57.14% Kelly Fraction: -0.3333 Ticker: SPY, Week: 27 Volatility: 0.0184 Positive Returns: 78.57% Kelly Ratio: 0.2857 Mean Return: 1.23% Standard Deviation: 1.84% Highest Return: 5.54% in 2010 Lowest Return: -1.18% in 2015 Mean Volume: 101717657.14 Highest Volume: 216636675.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 54238625.00 in 2017 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 3.67 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 78.57% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 21.43% Kelly Fraction: 0.7273 Ticker: SPY, Week: 28 Volatility: 0.0147 Positive Returns: 64.29% Kelly Ratio: 0.1429 Mean Return: 0.47% Standard Deviation: 1.47% Highest Return: 2.73% in 2013 Lowest Return: -2.01% in 2011 Mean Volume: 101748738.57 Highest Volume: 212156300.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 47308740.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71% Kelly Fraction: 0.4444 Ticker: SPY, Week: 29 Volatility: 0.0121 Positive Returns: 92.86% Kelly Ratio: 0.4286 Mean Return: 1.20% Standard Deviation: 1.21% Highest Return: 3.50% in 2010 Lowest Return: -1.16% in 2019 Mean Volume: 96302982.86 Highest Volume: 241240100.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 43331520.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 13.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 92.86% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 7.14% Kelly Fraction: 0.9231 Ticker: SPY, Week: 30 Volatility: 0.0186 Positive Returns: 50.00% Kelly Ratio: 0.0000 Mean Return: 0.17% Standard Deviation: 1.86% Highest Return: 4.25% in 2022 Lowest Return: -3.95% in 2011 Mean Volume: 94711455.71 Highest Volume: 206386080.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 47178800.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00% Kelly Fraction: 0.0000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 31 Volatility: 0.0254 Positive Returns: 71.43% Kelly Ratio: 0.2143 Mean Return: -0.43% Standard Deviation: 2.54% Highest Return: 1.93% in 2010 Lowest Return: -7.27% in 2011 Mean Volume: 115657112.86 Highest Volume: 443923300.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 49893820.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 2.50 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 71.43% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 28.57% Kelly Fraction: 0.6000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 32 Volatility: 0.0170 Positive Returns: 42.86% Kelly Ratio: -0.0714 Mean Return: -0.06% Standard Deviation: 1.70% Highest Return: 3.28% in 2022 Lowest Return: -3.65% in 2010 Mean Volume: 121728574.29 Highest Volume: 576882260.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 41395180.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.75 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 42.86% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 57.14% Kelly Fraction: -0.3333 Ticker: SPY, Week: 33 Volatility: 0.0157 Positive Returns: 42.86% Kelly Ratio: -0.0714 Mean Return: -0.59% Standard Deviation: 1.57% Highest Return: 1.28% in 2014 Lowest Return: -4.62% in 2011 Mean Volume: 108393427.14 Highest Volume: 346468900.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 51346820.00 in 2020 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.75 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 42.86% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 57.14% Kelly Fraction: -0.3333 Ticker: SPY, Week: 34 Volatility: 0.0249 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: -0.06% Standard Deviation: 2.49% Highest Return: 4.71% in 2011 Lowest Return: -5.62% in 2015 Mean Volume: 107049027.14 Highest Volume: 295991640.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 47916700.00 in 2020 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 35 Volatility: 0.0189 Positive Returns: 71.43% Kelly Ratio: 0.2143 Mean Return: 0.86% Standard Deviation: 1.89% Highest Return: 3.77% in 2010 Lowest Return: -3.26% in 2022 Mean Volume: 112448182.86 Highest Volume: 330178540.00 in 2015 Lowest Volume: 48893060.00 in 2020 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 2.50 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 71.43% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 28.57% Kelly Fraction: 0.6000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 36 Volatility: 0.0202 Positive Returns: 42.86% Kelly Ratio: -0.0714 Mean Return: -0.28% Standard Deviation: 2.02% Highest Return: 3.63% in 2022 Lowest Return: -3.34% in 2015 Mean Volume: 109450437.14 Highest Volume: 281424250.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 62207775.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.75 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 42.86% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 57.14% Kelly Fraction: -0.3333 Ticker: SPY, Week: 37 Volatility: 0.0237 Positive Returns: 64.29% Kelly Ratio: 0.1429 Mean Return: 0.59% Standard Deviation: 2.37% Highest Return: 5.27% in 2011 Lowest Return: -4.79% in 2022 Mean Volume: 116355140.71 Highest Volume: 301800640.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 53333260.00 in 2018 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71% Kelly Fraction: 0.4444 Ticker: SPY, Week: 38 Volatility: 0.0249 Positive Returns: 50.00% Kelly Ratio: 0.0000 Mean Return: -0.60% Standard Deviation: 2.49% Highest Return: 2.09% in 2010 Lowest Return: -6.69% in 2011 Mean Volume: 121164171.43 Highest Volume: 319570860.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 50468560.00 in 2017 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00% Kelly Fraction: 0.0000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 39 Volatility: 0.0093 Positive Returns: 14.29% Kelly Ratio: -0.3571 Mean Return: -0.88% Standard Deviation: 0.93% Highest Return: 0.72% in 2017 Lowest Return: -2.91% in 2022 Mean Volume: 118843855.71 Highest Volume: 289125120.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 61372040.00 in 2018 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.17 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 14.29% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 85.71% Kelly Fraction: -5.0000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 40 Volatility: 0.0106 Positive Returns: 64.29% Kelly Ratio: 0.1429 Mean Return: 0.71% Standard Deviation: 1.06% Highest Return: 2.34% in 2011 Lowest Return: -1.00% in 2018 Mean Volume: 124806368.57 Highest Volume: 335776200.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 65191120.00 in 2017 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71% Kelly Fraction: 0.4444 Ticker: SPY, Week: 41 Volatility: 0.0272 Positive Returns: 64.29% Kelly Ratio: 0.1429 Mean Return: 0.45% Standard Deviation: 2.72% Highest Return: 5.83% in 2011 Lowest Return: -4.13% in 2018 Mean Volume: 119517347.14 Highest Volume: 229047120.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 45680060.00 in 2017 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71% Kelly Fraction: 0.4444 Ticker: SPY, Week: 42 Volatility: 0.0159 Positive Returns: 85.71% Kelly Ratio: 0.3571 Mean Return: 0.74% Standard Deviation: 1.59% Highest Return: 4.63% in 2022 Lowest Return: -2.39% in 2023 Mean Volume: 121403802.86 Highest Volume: 262503400.00 in 2014 Lowest Volume: 49223620.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 6.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 85.71% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 14.29% Kelly Fraction: 0.8333 Ticker: SPY, Week: 43 Volatility: 0.0239 Positive Returns: 64.29% Kelly Ratio: 0.1429 Mean Return: 0.63% Standard Deviation: 2.39% Highest Return: 4.17% in 2014 Lowest Return: -3.95% in 2018 Mean Volume: 114093008.57 Highest Volume: 275998580.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 40530800.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71% Kelly Fraction: 0.4444 Ticker: SPY, Week: 44 Volatility: 0.0296 Positive Returns: 71.43% Kelly Ratio: 0.2143 Mean Return: 0.40% Standard Deviation: 2.96% Highest Return: 5.72% in 2023 Lowest Return: -5.64% in 2020 Mean Volume: 115418818.10 Highest Volume: 286001300.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 53817900.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 2.50 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 71.43% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 28.57% Kelly Fraction: 0.6000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 45 Volatility: 0.0265 Positive Returns: 71.43% Kelly Ratio: 0.2143 Mean Return: 1.41% Standard Deviation: 2.65% Highest Return: 7.05% in 2020 Lowest Return: -2.39% in 2012 Mean Volume: 110731115.71 Highest Volume: 236163280.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 50666320.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 2.50 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 71.43% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 28.57% Kelly Fraction: 0.6000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 46 Volatility: 0.0188 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: -0.13% Standard Deviation: 1.88% Highest Return: 2.30% in 2023 Lowest Return: -3.73% in 2011 Mean Volume: 105487707.14 Highest Volume: 225310040.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 49888620.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 47 Volatility: 0.0241 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: 0.04% Standard Deviation: 2.41% Highest Return: 3.62% in 2012 Lowest Return: -4.69% in 2011 Mean Volume: 89905267.86 Highest Volume: 192498150.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 47535550.00 in 2017 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 48 Volatility: 0.0226 Positive Returns: 85.71% Kelly Ratio: 0.3571 Mean Return: 1.52% Standard Deviation: 2.26% Highest Return: 7.19% in 2011 Lowest Return: -1.17% in 2021 Mean Volume: 101511530.00 Highest Volume: 226486300.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 41813375.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 6.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 85.71% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 14.29% Kelly Fraction: 0.8333 Ticker: SPY, Week: 49 Volatility: 0.0213 Positive Returns: 78.57% Kelly Ratio: 0.2857 Mean Return: 0.32% Standard Deviation: 2.13% Highest Return: 3.78% in 2021 Lowest Return: -4.39% in 2018 Mean Volume: 106373016.43 Highest Volume: 218376540.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 57685100.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 3.67 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 78.57% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 21.43% Kelly Fraction: 0.7273 Ticker: SPY, Week: 50 Volatility: 0.0178 Positive Returns: 28.57% Kelly Ratio: -0.2143 Mean Return: -0.98% Standard Deviation: 1.78% Highest Return: 2.38% in 2023 Lowest Return: -3.74% in 2015 Mean Volume: 120513714.29 Highest Volume: 223839060.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 56187100.00 in 2020 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.40 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 28.57% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 71.43% Kelly Fraction: -1.5000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 51 Volatility: 0.0263 Positive Returns: 78.57% Kelly Ratio: 0.2857 Mean Return: 0.80% Standard Deviation: 2.63% Highest Return: 3.93% in 2011 Lowest Return: -7.25% in 2018 Mean Volume: 125472662.14 Highest Volume: 241227640.00 in 2014 Lowest Volume: 68201160.00 in 2016 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 3.67 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 78.57% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 21.43% Kelly Fraction: 0.7273 Ticker: SPY, Week: 52 Volatility: 0.0135 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: 0.44% Standard Deviation: 1.35% Highest Return: 3.05% in 2018 Lowest Return: -1.94% in 2012 Mean Volume: 81552437.14 Highest Volume: 176291125.00 in 2018 Lowest Volume: 36675000.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 53 Volatility: 0.0155 Positive Returns: 50.00% Kelly Ratio: nan Mean Return: 0.22% Standard Deviation: 1.55% Highest Return: 1.32% in 2020 Lowest Return: -0.87% in 2015 Mean Volume: 69674137.50 Highest Volume: 84184050.00 in 2015 Lowest Volume: 55164225.00 in 2020 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00% Kelly Fraction: 0.0000
AMEX:SPY
by livingdracula
BTC Analysis and ProjectionLooking at the bigger picture, after testing the $49,000 level, there are strong indications that Bitcoin might push for a new all-time high. Recently, Bitcoin shook off stop losses from the previous weekly low and gained significant volume in the imbalance zone, signaling a potential bullish move. Key Levels and Scenarios: 1. Bullish Scenario: We are currently watching the bullish level at $65,359. If Bitcoin manages to hold above this level and gain momentum, the next target is $84,000. This scenario aligns with the expectation of an altseason in 2024, where altcoins might see significant growth driven by Bitcoin's upward momentum. 2. Bearish Scenario: However, if Bitcoin fails to sustain the bullish momentum and drops below the recent low, we could see a decline to the $43,000-$34,000 range. This would likely delay the anticipated altseason until the early quarters of 2025. In summary, the current setup suggests a potential for significant gains if Bitcoin holds above key levels. However, a failure to do so might trigger a deeper correction and push back the altseason timeline. For now, the focus remains on how Bitcoin performs around these crucial levels.
by Goldfinch_song
The Internet Computer: A Revolutionary Blockchain PlatformProblem Defined in the White Paper: The Internet Computer (IC) is a blockchain platform designed to overcome the limitations of traditional blockchain platforms, such as high transaction and storage costs, slow computational speed, and the inability to serve frontends to users. The IC aims to provide a decentralized platform for executing smart contracts, enabling the creation of fully decentralized applications that are hosted end-to-end on blockchain. Solution The IC is a radical new design of blockchain that unleashes the full potential of smart contracts. It consists of a set of cryptographic protocols that connect independently operated nodes into a collection of blockchains, which host and execute "canisters," the IC's form of smart contracts. Canisters can store data, perform general computations on that data, and provide a complete technology stack, serving web pages directly to end users. Market Size & Opportunity The IC has the potential to revolutionize the way we build and interact with decentralized applications. With its ability to host and execute smart contracts, the IC can enable a wide range of use cases, from decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) to decentralized social media and gaming platforms. The IC's market size and opportunity are vast, with the potential to disrupt traditional industries and create new ones. Consensus Mechanism The IC uses a new consensus protocol that is designed to be extremely simple and robust. The protocol is based on a blockchain, with each non-genesis block containing a payload of inputs and a hash of the block's parent in the tree. The protocol proceeds in rounds, with one or more blocks of height h being added to the tree in each round. The IC consensus protocol guarantees safety under a weak communication assumption and guarantees liveness under a partial synchrony assumption. Tokenomics The IC has a native token called ICP, which is used for staking in the Network Nervous System (NNS), conversion to cycles, payment to node providers, and other functions. ICP tokens are also used for governance, with users who have ICP tokens staked in the NNS receiving newly minted ICP tokens as a voting reward. Smart Contracts The IC provides a run-time environment for executing WebAssembly (Wasm) programs in canisters, which are roughly the same as processes. Canister programs are encoded in Wasm, and the IC provides a messaging interface definition language and wire format called Candid for typed, high-level, and cross-language interoperability. Scalability The IC is designed to be highly scalable, with the ability to process unbounded volumes of smart contract data and computation natively. The IC can grow in capacity by adding more nodes to the network, making it an ideal platform for large-scale decentralized applications. Real World Value The IC has real-world value as a decentralized platform for executing smart contracts. Its ability to host and execute canisters enables a wide range of use cases, from DeFi and NFTs to decentralized social media and gaming platforms. The IC's market size and opportunity are vast, with the potential to disrupt traditional industries and create new ones. Security Measures The IC has several security measures in place, including: Chain-key cryptography: The IC uses a unique and powerful collection of technologies called chain-key cryptography, which includes threshold signatures, digital signatures, and a distributed key generation (DKG) protocol. Threshold signatures: The IC uses threshold signatures to ensure that a subset of replicas can generate a signature on a message, even if some replicas are faulty. Distributed key generation (DKG) protocol: The IC uses a DKG protocol to securely distribute shares of the secret signing key to replicas. Consensus protocol: The IC consensus protocol is designed to be extremely simple and robust, with a weak communication assumption and a partial synchrony assumption. Code Audits The IC has undergone several code audits, including a security audit by a third-party firm. The audit found several vulnerabilities in the IC's code, which were subsequently fixed. Development Roadmap The IC is still in development, with several features and upgrades planned for the near future. Some of the upcoming features include: Compute Platform: The IC will become a decentralized compute platform, allowing anyone to deploy canister smart contracts on the Internet and run them in a decentralized manner. Blockchain Singularity: The IC will achieve a state of "Blockchain Singularity," where all computations of the world can run on the IC. Reduced End-to-end Latency: The IC will reduce end-to-end latency, making it faster and more responsive. Increased Storage Capacity and Throughput: The IC will increase storage capacity and throughput, making it more scalable and efficient. Decentralized AI: The IC will enable decentralized AI, allowing users to trust AI models running on the IC with no visibility into how data is used and how AI models produce responses. Chain Fusion: The IC will enable Chain Fusion, allowing blockchains like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana to be "fused" together with the IC to create a seamless single-chain end-user experience for multi-chain dapps. Chain Fusion Supports Bitcoin Ordinals and Runes: The IC will support Bitcoin ordinals and runes, enabling users to interact with Bitcoin smart contracts on the IC. Chain Fusion Supports Solana: The IC will support Solana, enabling users to interact with Solana smart contracts on the IC. Chain Fusion Supports EVM Chains: The IC will support EVM chains, enabling users to interact with EVM-based smart contracts on the IC. Privacy: The IC will enable privacy-preserving dapps, allowing users to store and share encrypted data on-chain. Platform Decentralization: The IC will become fully decentralized, eliminating central points of control and ensuring that users interact with the IC without relying on a single party. Identity: The IC will enable a robust authentication solution based on passkeys, with easy onboarding and support for identity attributes while protecting users' privacy. Digital Assets: The IC will enable DeFi protocols, real-world asset tokenization, and other digital asset solutions, making it an attractive platform to build multi-chain custody solutions and wallets. Governance & Tokenomics: The IC will have two kinds of built-in governance systems, the NNS and the SNS framework, which will facilitate decentralized decision making and incentivize voting participation. Developer Experience: The IC will have a rich set of libraries, testing frameworks, and developer tools, making it easier for developers to build and deploy canisters on the IC. Some of the projects on ICP ecosystem: DeFi ICPSwap: An AMM DEX built completely on-chain that is the premier hub for full-stack financial and DAO services on ICP. Funded: A web3 crowdfunding platform that allows users to participate in crowdfunding with ICP, BTC, and ETH without worrying about losing money on gas fees. Sonic DEX: A multichain decentralized exchange built on the Internet Computer Protocol (ICP) that offers a wide range of DeFi services. Helix Markets: A decentralized exchange that aims to bring true ownership and full transparency to crypto trading. ICDex: An orderbook-based DEX that runs 100% on-chain, made possible by advanced ICP smart contracts. Finny: A lending and borrowing platform that allows users to lend and borrow against their crypto without bridging it across chains. Catalyze: A social dapp that serves as a community organizing tool where users can build groups, interact with other members, create/run events, and transact using their Web3 identity and wallet. DecideAI: An ecosystem that consists of three products, designed to meet the needs of the high-end, specialized LLM market. Plural Finance: A platform that enables coffee farmers to submit data reports on their yields and processes for crop insurance purposes. ICPEx: A decentralized exchange built entirely on the chain based on the ICP. NFT NFID: A digital identity that keeps personal information private and digital assets secure. Bioniq: The fastest Ordinals marketplace where users can buy, sell, and trade with no gas fees, near-instant finality, and decentralized secure token bridging. Yuku: A platform that allows users to unlock limitless potential by creating, sharing, and monetizing NFTs, metaverse experiences, and gamefi content. Entrepot: A decentralized NFT marketplace developed by ToniqLabs, providing users with tools and on-chain services to design, deploy, and manage NFTs and traditional tokens. Plethora: A Web3 platformer that rewards users with fun gameplay and NFTs, empowering NFT projects to launch their collections with immersive experiences customized for users. Cosmicrafts: A virtual world where users can engage in thrilling interstellar battles, strategize with allies, and conquer the cosmos. NFT Studio: A platform that allows users to create 3D NFTs, which are living 3D code that can run on the ICP blockchain. Hobbi: A platform that allows users to create a profile and record all the multimedia content they consume, whether it's a movie, a book, or even a video game. ICP NFT Creater: A Shopify app designed to streamline the process of creating and launching NFT collections, product certificates, and more on ICP. Bitomni: A BTCFi-driven omnichain asset management protocol with built-in BTCFi DApps across multiple blockchains. SocialFi Hot or Not: A decentralized short-form video-based social media platform that integrates prediction markets for content. TAGGR: A fully on-chain and fully autonomous SocialFi network that allows users to publish content on a public compute infrastructure. OpenChat: A fully decentralized real-time messaging service that is indistinguishable from Web2 chat apps while living 100% on the blockchain. DSCVR: An end-to-end decentralized Web3 social media platform that allows communities to form into groups called Portals. Seers: A decentralized Twitter that includes prediction markets, allowing users to engage in social media features and prediction markets. Nuance: A Web3.0 blogging platform that is hosted on-chain end-to-end on the Internet Computer. Cosmicrafts: A virtual world where users can engage in thrilling interstellar battles, strategize with allies, and conquer the cosmos. Kontribute: A web3 creators platform that brings story writing and digital art collectibles together. Dstar: A marketplace for buying and selling Internet Identity (II) trading accounts. Metaforo ICP deployment: A Web3 forum that prioritizes decentralization, community ownership, and token-gated governance. Games Dragginz: A virtual pets game from the creators of Neopets, where users can hatch and raise Dragginz to accompany them on their adventures. AutoRoyale: A battle royale 2D shooter on ICP, where users can grab gear, outplay the competition, and stay alive as the battleground shrinks. Cubetopia: A Web3 building game where players can create anything on unique blocky islands, each island being a mutable NFT stored on the Internet Computer blockchain. Plethora: A Web3 platformer that rewards users with fun gameplay and NFTs, empowering NFT projects to launch their collections with immersive experiences customized for users. Cosmicrafts: A virtual world where users can engage in thrilling interstellar battles, strategize with allies, and conquer the cosmos. Jumpy Motoko: A Unity play-to-earn game on Internet Computer, where users can deploy their own Unity play-to-earn game too. Windows IC: A React Dapp built on the Internet Computer, mimicking what a Chromebook can do, but for a mimic of the Windows Operating System. Reversi: A completely decentralized multiplayer game that allows users to play against a friend or foe in real-time, from any browser, anywhere in the world. Goblin Studio: A platform that allows users to create, translate, and interact with goblins in a virtual world. CARMANIA: A game that brings digital community into a unified virtual space, where users can build, customize, and compete with their dream cars. Tools/Infrastructure ICPSwap: An AMM DEX built completely on-chain that is the premier hub for full-stack financial and DAO services on ICP. ICDex: An orderbook-based DEX that runs 100% on-chain, made possible by advanced ICP smart contracts. ICLightHouse: A framework for developing true web3 DeFi infrastructure on the Internet Computer. Bitfinity EVM: An EVM compatibility layer for the IC, allowing users to deploy their Solidity smart contracts to the Internet Computer. NNS Dapp: A front-end dapp that allows users to interact with the Internet Computer's Network Nervous System with a user-friendly UI. Plug Wallet: A wallet that allows users to store, send, swap, deposit, and log into IC apps in a click. Stoic Wallet: A digital wallet that authenticates users through a variety of methods, including Internet Identity. Overall, the Internet Computer is a revolutionary blockchain platform that has the potential to disrupt traditional industries and create new ones. Its ability to host and execute smart contracts, combined with its scalability and security measures, make it an ideal platform for large-scale decentralized applications.
by stocktechbot
USDZMW LONGIn this post, I share my update on USDZMW from the last forecast provided in the chart attached below. Wave IV seems to have completed its correction at .382 of the third impulse, with a clear ABC correction that has been marked on chart, and we may now be heading to wave V. However, lower degree timeframes indicate a potential impulse that has began and would potentially depreciate the Zambian Kwacha to K30.19 per USD. This is also the area where we could expect the next resistance on the monthly TF. December 19, 2023 forecast here: Disclaimer: The information provided here is only for educational purposes and should NOT be taken as investment advice.
Long
by Timgucci
1
THE GREATEST LONG // BTCUSD (August 2024)Fiat is flowing fluidly into TOTAL after the after-math of this weekend's price action 2740 was the key level in which the dive to sub-2k level on Ethereum happened BTC/ETH dominance will stagger as alt-coins receive liquidity It's a little late for alt-coin summer, but at least we have alt-coin autumn now It is beyond contrarian to open a long position when everyone else is shaking in fear, but it's now or never if you want to catch the ride up to 100k BTC. You heard it here first. Best in all, dysonring2050
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by dysonring2050
Post Halving: BTC Loves Sep and OCTBTC is currently sitting just below 61K and is not ready for the next leg up. We have been stuck in consolidation since the recent ~73K high back in March 2024 and the logarithmic weekly charts shows that BTC has been trending in this rising channel since November 2022. Judging from the previous trends seen in the past two halving events (see below) we are likely to see a massive liquidity sell off prior to the next explosive move to new all-time highs. We can very much continue consolidating within the current ~60k – 70k range but I think we need this sell off to happen in order to go higher. Big players like banks and institutions place massive orders and trade massive positions that drive price higher. Nothing fundamentally has changed and BTC is likely to see a new all-time high, but in order for that to happen, the big players require liquidity. I think we are due for one more sell off prior to new highs and the charts point towards a likely liquidity grab at around ~52K. At that level I expect confluence from the 50 EMA to catch up to price and for 52k support to be retested along with trend line confluence from the rising channel. This will place us roughly around Sep/Oct and BTC loves Sep and Oct. Best of Luck!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by LaMASIA_100