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Seasonality

KWEB: Exposure to Chinese tech marketBased on past cycle history, the SHSZ300 (Chinese S&P 500 more or less) tracks the US markets bull runs, though starting with a large delay. We're fed a lot of bad news about China, but the fact is, they're making some economic power moves, and positioning themselves for the AI Industrial Revolution. The Chinese markets are bottoming out, and it's a good time to get exposure to the Chinese markets. I will be buying in around the buy zone ($45 - $41). #China #MCHI #KWEB
AMEX:KWEBLong
by Savwire1
My target's on Solana's next ATH in the 2024 - 2025 cycleThese are just price and mcap projections and not to be taken as financial advice. Imho there are basically 3 cryptocurrencies that matter in terms of organic user and developer adoption. That's Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana, other chains don't come close. Currently Solana is the fastest blockchain, and processing more transactions than Ethereum and it's L2s combined. Ethereum: Top to top, 2018 - 2021 ETH made a 244% gain, from around $1400 - $4800 Solana: In my model, my conservative target is $500 in the upcoming bull cycle, which is only a 94% gain top to top. "2021 - 2024/2025" In my aggressive target, it's a 284% gain top to top, ie: from roughly $260 to $1000. Which is just slightly more than ETH's 244% performance, but we're talking about a chain with atm a much smaller marketcap, but much more potential of mass adoption. The $1000 liberal target which give SOL at current supply a $420 billion mcap, which is still under ETH's 2021 top mcap size of $578 billion.
COINBASE:SOLUSDLong
by leongaban
7
There is no turn backThis analysis might look pretty crowded but actually there is simple logic behind this. After each bearish season place "Fib speed fan resistance" from top to bottom. We can observe there is no bearish scenario after we break 0.75 blue fan line. There might be red weeks but after all its end with bullish scenario. End of bullish scenario can be found from Pi Cycle Bitcoin High/Low indicator. Whenever it's "High Short MA" and "High Long MA" crosses it is very close to top. This indicator is repainting so it means we can estimate end of bull season by "Pi Cycle Bitcoin High/Low" indicator.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by IronheadNAD
The Crypto Carousel: BTC, ALTS, and the Money Merry-Go-Round✅ Bitcoin Dominance, BTC, Altcoins ✅ Today we're diving into the fascinating world of money rotation within the cryptocurrency subclasses. We're talking about the rotation of cash between Bitcoin and altcoins, its younger, more diverse siblings. Imagine a pie where each slice represents a different cryptocurrency. The pie here indicates the total cryptocurrency market cap of both Bitcoin and altcoins, which can increase or decrease at any given time. In other words the TOTAL chart. - If BTC market cap increases but altcoin market cap shrinks (relative), the pie stays the same size. - If BTC market cap increase and altcoin market cap increases, the pie size increase and so forth. Total Market Cap ( CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL ) and BTC.D Now, imagine a big shiny carousel. Bitcoin is the majestic stallion at the center, while altcoins are the colorful horses surrounding it. Riders (investors) hop on and off, injecting money into the ride (buying) and taking it out (selling). This constant movement is what keeps the crypto carousel spinning. Let's break it down with visuals: Chart 1: The Bitcoin Rollercoaster This rollercoaster represents Bitcoin's price action, and also my view on where we are in the current cycle. (I believe we're in a multimonth correction, followed by the last impulse wave up). You'll need this to know where we are in the cycle right now / LOWER-STABLE: Chart 2: Bitcoin & Bitcoin Dominance Dance This chart shows Bitcoin's dominance, which is basically its share of the total crypto market capitalization (market cap = total value of all cryptocurrencies). When Bitcoin's dominance goes up (higher on the chart), it means investors are putting more money into Bitcoin, potentially at the expense of altcoins. Conversely, when dominance goes down, it suggests capital is flowing towards altcoins. The difference is clear: Chart 3: BTC.D vs TOTAL3 In this chart, we overlay the Total 3 Priceline (turquoise) on top of the Bitcoin Dominance chart. TOTAL3 shows us all alts except ETH. The Bitcoin Rollercoaster and the S&P 500: Imagine Bitcoin's price as a rollercoaster. When Bitcoin surges (line goes up), it can sometimes lead to increased investor risk appetite. This might entice some investors to move funds from the S&P 500 into riskier assets like Bitcoin, potentially causing a slight dip in the S&P 500. Conversely, when Bitcoin experiences a price drop, investors might flock back to the perceived stability of the stock market, potentially causing a rise in the S&P 500. So, is there a guaranteed correlation? Not quite. The crypto market is a complex beast. But by understanding the relationship between Bitcoin, altcoin prices and dominance, you can get a better sense of where the money merry-go-round might be headed. Remember, this isn't financial advice! Do your own research before making any crypto investments. But hey, with this knowledge under your belt, you're one step closer to navigating the world of crypto rotations! _______________________
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CryptoCheck-
🔥WHAT EXPECT FROM BITCOIN IN SUMMER 2024❓99% ACCURACY❗️🔥 Bitcoin reaches the most boring period on any market. It's a vocation period for US stock market and for crypto market as well (JUNE-AUGUST). But will the market be as calm as many expect? A Bitcoin rally to new all-time highs (ATH) near 150,000 or a -50% dump? What will be with altcoins price and which one have best growth potential? Discover in this video! 🎁 Check my trading ideas for the altcoins that are still at the bottom! like❤️ and follow
by Alex_Dehtiarov
Tracking the inversion of the yield curve US02Y - US10YThe inversion of the yield curve often serves as a reliable indicator, suggesting an impending increase in the likelihood of both recession and market downturns in the foreseeable future To track this inversion effectively, you can subtracting the interest rates of the 2-year US government bonds from those of the 10-year bonds TVC:US02Y - TVC:US10Y When this calculation yields a result above 0 percent, it indicates an inversion in the 2-year versus 10-year interest rates In 2022, when the current inversion of the yield curve began, the “experts” were constantly warning us of an immediate recession and market crash However, historical data reveals that significant market corrections typically materialize many months, if not years, following the yield curve inversion The upper chart depicting US02Y-US10Y, the black 0 line serves as a reference point. Meanwhile, the lower chart illustrates the drawdown of the S&P 500 SP:SPX in the last 35 years The picture shows that each time there was a drawdown of at least 15% after the end of the inversion of the yield curve The dashed blue lines represent the end of the inversion, indicating that a larger drawdown is more likely after the end of the yield curve inversion and not during the inversion I'll be diligently monitoring the current inversion once again. A breach below 0% would warrant a considerably more cautious approach to the markets Admittedly, such correlations aren't infallible, and their fruition can sometimes span several years Nevertheless, they hold merit from a cyclical perspective Should the inversion of the yield curve cease to be inverted around 2025, a recession and market correction following the 18.6-year real estate cycle would become increasingly likely This would also align with the anticipated correction in the crypto market, typically occurring within a 4-year cycle
SP:SPX
by OfficerDonut
1
Sell in May and go Away ... not too fastWe recently saw the AMEX:SPY index falling very fast and aggressively to the correction territory. The level found support around the 4950s. After all the events like Earnings, one day down, the other day up, and both very aggressive, plus the Fed meeting, also with a wild rollercoaster. At the end of the day the index found support above the 4950. Which is good news, and the first step. What does it come next? After all this spring clean I am expecting that all the weak hands were shaken and the "buy low sell high" comes next. Double bottom and a target level 5200 for the SP500. The VIX spiked to the dreadful level of 20 and it came down. No WWIII, no Iran vs Israel, no international events. "News is Noise". The market shrugged off the events and determined that the 100 ma support was stronger. We're still in the correction territory, until we go past the 50 ma the next target will be the All Time High ATH levels we saw by the end of March. The market hates to become predictable, so the "Sell in May and go Away ..." could as well have turned into "Sell in April, don't be fooled". Indicators: Madrid Ribbon at 100/200 ma Madrid EMA at 50 Madrid Momentum Indicator Madrid Display Symbol showing VIX
SP:SPXLong
by Madrid
NZDUSD-4H-TREND CONTINUATIONNZDUSD is looking bearish in HTF 1. Conditional Scoring: Bearish sentiment is derived from expectations of deteriorating economic conditions in New Zealand relative to the US. 2. COT-FILP: Bearishness is based on speculative positioning in the futures market, where traders anticipate a decline in the NZDUSD exchange rate. 3. Seasonal Patterns: Bearishness during the first two weeks of May since the last 5, 10, and 15yr is attributed to seasonal factors, such as decreases in exports or shifts in interest rate differentials. 4. Fundamentals: Improvements in leading economic indicators and exogenous factors suggest strength in the NZD, while a decline in endogenous factors implies potential weakness in the currency. 5. Technicals: Bearishness in the trend and continuation pattern suggests a downward trajectory in the NZDUSD pair, while bullish divergences might indicate a potential reversal despite other technical factors pointing to bearish. Overall, the analysis concludes with a bearish outlook for the NZDUSD pair, considering both fundamental and technical factors.
Short
by AamirZahirali
1
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) Approaching 2024 Altcoin SeasonLooking at the 1W time frame of the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart, it looks like it's time for the market to transition from being primarily Bitcoin-dominated to altcoin-dominated. We've seen the writing on the wall with Bitcoin making headline after headline regarding United States Spot ETFs or the halving event. Now that the majority of investors are sucked into Bitcoin, timeline shifts into altcoins. We can see that through the news now with the attention picking up on Ethereum (not discrediting Solana growth by any means, it's still small enough in market cap where it doesn't marginally change the TOTAL2 cap or this chart). Ethereum has the impending United States Spot ETFs approval as well as regulatory clarity coming around Uniswap, and from that I'd assume we'd get some sort or clarity regarding memecoins as well, sending that respective market flying with a green light for institutional investors to invest. Bitcoin is trying to grab attention or hold it's relativity now with Ordinals and L2s, and that's great! Let's say though you buy PUPS, that's considered part of TOTAL2 or bringing down the capitalization of Bitcoin relative to the rest of the crypto market. I'm expecting this trend to continue where Bitcoin holders are using their coins on-chain for these activities, ultimately dragging the BTC.D cap down with it. This time around, I don't see the possibility of Bitcoin reaching the previous 72.04% level due to the sheer amount of tokens and liquidity flying around these smid caps. Each Bitcoin Dominance cycle or Bitcoin cycle for that matter, the altcoin seasons get less and less intense due to the amount of relativity they have compared to Bitcoin at all seasons instead of just during altcoin season. Around this 55% range is mid-range of this free-fall seen in 2021, and where orders are resting. We could see Bitcoin Dominance either range in this area or start free-falling, either way I don't see a market where we re-claim that 72.04% or push much higher for that matter. Also, hearing a lot of talk about this cycle being over, cannot tell if they're joking or not, but we haven't seen that altcoin season euphoria yet. That is yet to come. An interesting observation here we can see the 2021 altcoin season took 1085 days to build up from the bottom to the top of Bitcoin dominance, and this 2024 season is right on par with that 1085 days before the cycle ultimately starts. This Bitcoin cycle is a little bit different, so we'll see how this chart plays out this time around, but I remember last cycle, 2021, I called the 72.04% Bitcoin Dominance wick to the Tee. Could be longer, who knows, but so far this chart is playing out and figured I'd give an update. The 2021 altcoins season lasted almost that full year of 2021, but as we can see on the chart, the major move happened between January - May 2021, those 5 months. If history were to repeat itself, we should see this cycle's main move play out in 5 months too.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by kyer
GameFi: Top Sector for 2024 with Huge Potential🚀🚀🚀The GameFi sector, a fusion of gaming and decentralized finance (DeFi), has emerged as one of the most promising areas within the cryptocurrency landscape. This sector has gained significant traction in recent years, attracting both gamers and investors seeking exposure to innovative blockchain-based applications. What is GameFi? GameFi revolutionizes traditional gaming by introducing play-to-earn mechanics, where players can earn rewards in the form of cryptocurrencies or non-fungible tokens (NFTs) for their in-game activities. This integration of blockchain technology into gaming ecosystems creates a new paradigm where players can monetize their time and effort, fostering a more engaged and ownership-oriented gaming experience. Top 5 GameFi Projects with High Growth Potential in 2024: Immutable X (IMX): A layer-2 scaling solution for the Ethereum network, Immutable X focuses on enhancing the user experience for NFT-based games. It offers gas-free minting and trading of NFTs, making it an attractive platform for game developers and players alike. Price Prediction: I anticipate a sweep of local lows and a retest of the $1.4 level, followed by a potential surge towards $5. Floki Inu (FLOKI): A dog-themed meme coin with a strong community and a focus on developing a decentralized gaming metaverse called Valhalla. Floki's price action has exhibited consistent retests of its ascending support line. Price Prediction: I expect the third retest of the trendline to be a fakeout, leading to a downward move to capture liquidity below. Gala (GALA): A blockchain-based gaming platform aiming to create an interconnected ecosystem of games and NFTs. Gala has formed a significant liquidity pool beneath well-defined lows while simultaneously establishing lower highs (without sweeping liquidity above). Price Prediction: I anticipate a sweep from below to initiate a more accelerated upward trajectory. Axie Infinity (AXS): A pioneer in the GameFi space, Axie Infinity gained immense popularity in 2021. The project features a unique gameplay where players breed, battle, and trade Axie creatures, represented by NFTs. Price Prediction: I expect a retest of the 0.5 imbalance level and the $4.6 price point. Illuvium (ILV): An open-world fantasy RPG built on the Ethereum blockchain, Illuvium combines immersive gameplay with NFT ownership and play-to-earn mechanics. The project has gained significant traction in recent months. Price Prediction: I anticipate a fakeout breakout at the bottom of the bearish flag pattern, followed by a swift upward movement. The GameFi sector presents a compelling investment opportunity in the dynamic cryptocurrency market. The integration of gaming and DeFi offers a unique value proposition, attracting both gamers and crypto enthusiasts. The projects mentioned above, each with their distinct features and growth potential, are worth considering for those seeking exposure to the promising GameFi landscape.
Long
by Yaroslav_Krasko
2
Oil / Crude Oil Heading into end of WeekSo we are on the Daily Not moving with much drive and lets say... obvious direction when it comes to day to day bias (Overall Bearish) I am ONLY focusing on PDH and PDL as targets today with any signal to buy or sell into the market being in a discount before I place a trade. Range day - yes To consider that Thursday's have seen good movement on Oil recently so keep this in mind. Consider also that the Daily wick CE is also aligned with the weekly ifvg. I will be looking to enter positions today as I am a scalper however anything on the 15min or above I would side with caution as prolonged moves may not be on the cards esp going on the last two weeks of PA. Also like to thank the people who Boost my posts it means a lot.
NYMEX:CL1!
by IamThattrader
How the Halving Will Impact the Bitcoin Market ? Bitcoin Halving: A Comprehensive Overview and Its Impact on the Market Bitcoin halving, an event that occurs every 210,000 blocks (approximately every four years), reduces the reward for miners who validate transactions and add new blocks to the blockchain by 50%. This mechanism is designed to control inflation and maintain the finite supply of Bitcoin, which is capped at 21 million coins. Objectives of Halving Controlled Inflation: Halving aims to counteract the inflationary effects of new Bitcoin creation by gradually reducing the issuance rate. This helps maintain the scarcity of the asset and its value over time. Unlike fiat currencies, where central banks can arbitrarily print money, Bitcoin's halving mechanism ensures a predictable and finite supply, preventing uncontrolled inflation. Sustainable Network Growth : By slowing down the mining reward, halving encourages miners to operate more efficiently and focus on long-term network security rather than solely pursuing short-term profits. This shift incentivizes miners to invest in reliable hardware and infrastructure, ensuring the stability and resilience of the Bitcoin network. BraveNewCoin Liquid index Impact of Halving on Bitcoin Price Historically, Bitcoin halving events have been associated with significant price increases. This can be attributed to several factors: Supply Reduction: As the mining reward decreases, the supply of new Bitcoins entering the market slows down. This reduced supply, coupled with consistent demand, can lead to price appreciation. For instance, after the first halving in 2012, Bitcoin's price surged by over 200% within a year. Market Anticipation: Investors often anticipate the positive impact of halving on price and start buying Bitcoin in advance of the event, driving up demand and price. This phenomenon is evident in the price movements leading up to each halving event. Psychological Effect: Halving serves as a milestone in Bitcoin's roadmap, reinforcing its scarcity and long-term potential, attracting more investors and boosting market sentiment. The halving event serves as a reminder of Bitcoin's finite supply and its potential as a store of value. The Upcoming Halving in April 2024 The next Bitcoin halving is expected to occur on April 19, 2024, at block height 840,000. This event is highly anticipated by the cryptocurrency community, and many analysts and experts are predicting a substantial price increase following the halving. Price Predictions: While price predictions are inherently uncertain, some analysts have made projections based on historical trends and market sentiment: Matrixport: $125,000 by the end of 2024 Pantera Capital: Over $147,000 in 2025 Bernstein: Potential rally in mining company stocks Potential Correction: While many anticipate a price surge, some analysts caution against excessive optimism and acknowledge the possibility of a temporary price correction following the halving: JPMorgan: Price could drop to $42,000 Implications for Miners With the reduced mining reward, miners need to adapt their operations to remain profitable. This may involve: Optimizing Mining Efficiency: Miners will need to upgrade their hardware or switch to more energy-efficient mining pools to reduce operational costs. This could lead to consolidation in the mining industry, as less efficient miners may be forced to exit the market. Focusing on Transaction Fees: As the block reward decreases, transaction fees will become a more significant source of income for miners. This may encourage miners to support initiatives that increase network usage and transaction volume. Diversifying Revenue Streams: Miners may explore alternative revenue streams, such as offering mining services or developing other blockchain-related products. This diversification could help miners adapt to the changing dynamics of the cryptocurrency landscape. Conclusion Bitcoin halving is a crucial event that shapes the cryptocurrency landscape. While it has historically led to price appreciation, investors should exercise caution and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. The upcoming halving in April 2024 is expected to be a significant turning point for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. Additional Notes: The halving process is embedded in Bitcoin's code and is an automated mechanism, not influenced by any individual or organization. This decentralized nature ensures the integrity and predictability of the halving process. Halving events occur at predetermined intervals and are not subject to any changes or delays. This fixed schedule provides miners and investors with clear expectations and allows for informed decision-making. The halving mechanism is designed to ensure the long-term sustainability and value of Bitcoin by maintaining its finite supply and aligning incentives for miners. This carefully crafted design contributes to Bitcoin's resilience and potential as a long-term asset.
Long
by Yaroslav_Krasko