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Seasonality

Why we're on guard for a USD pullbackStrong economic data for the US alongside expectations for the Fed to significantly reduce the pace of their easing cycle has been a main driver for USD bulls. And while the dollar could reach new high with the current backdrop, we're about to enter a phase of the year which greatly favours USD bears. Looking at monthly and daily seasonality patterns in December and forward returns for the USD around Fed meetings, I outline why a pullback - even idf only minor - could be due for the mighty greenback. MS
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by CityIndex
AUDJPY Analysis - BuyAUDJPY Analysis Overview 1. Seasonality: AUD: Bearish until midweek — Seasonal weakness in AUD early in the week aligns with a short-term bearish sentiment. JPY: Bullish — JPY strength throughout the week supports its safe-haven appeal. --- 2. COT Report (Commitment of Traders): AUD: 4-week flip indicates a Sell bias. Non-commercial short positions are increasing, signaling bearish sentiment for AUD. JPY: 4-week flip indicates a Buy bias. Non-commercial long positions are increasing, reinforcing bullish sentiment for JPY. --- 3. Fundamental Analysis: LEI (Leading Economic Indicator): AUD:Decreasing — Suggests deteriorating economic momentum, adding to bearish pressure. JPY: Range — Neutral economic conditions but still supportive due to JPY's safe-haven status. Endogenous Factors: AUD: Mix to Decreasing — Weak internal factors limit AUD’s strength. JPY: Increasing — Improving domestic conditions support JPY buying. --- 4. Exogenous Factors: GBPJPY: Strong Sell — Broader risk-off sentiment in the market favors safe-haven currencies like JPY over risk-sensitive ones like AUD. --- 5. Technical Analysis: On the 1-hour chart: A Cup and Handle pattern and an ABCD pattern are forming, indicating bullish potential. After point C, the price is making Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL), suggesting a bullish continuation. These bullish patterns present a good Buy Opportunity, especially as the price confirms its breakout above the handle. --- Bias: Buy Despite AUD's seasonal weakness early in the week, the technical setup on the 1-hour chart favors a bullish bias for AUDJPY. JPY's strength provides additional support for safe-haven flows, but the technical patterns indicate that AUDJPY has room to rally in the short term. Consider entering long positions upon confirmation of the breakout above the handle.
Long
by asadamalik
Ethereum towards new ATH?After testing the resistance above 4,000, the flash crash in Alts impacted ETH/USD as well, resulting in a sharp drop to 3,500. However, the strong support established at this level held firm, preventing further declines. Now, the price is approaching the resistance zone once again. At this point, it seems the bulls are gaining momentum, making a breakout above the resistance highly likely. If this breakout materializes, the price could accelerate significantly, with 5,000 emerging as the next logical target.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
2
Bullish Patterns and Bitcoin: A Roadmap to $125KAs anticipated by many, following Trump’s election, Bitcoin experienced a significant surge. On November 14th, it encountered its first notable correction during this upward momentum. In early December, Bitcoin crossed the critical 100k milestone for the first time. However, this achievement was followed by a swift pullback. Since then, dips have consistently been met with strong buying activity, and as of now, the price has stabilized comfortably above this key psychological level. The price action since mid-November reveals the formation of an ascending channel, a technical pattern that historically suggests a 70% probability of continuation to the upside. A decisive breakout above 107k could confirm this bullish scenario, with a measured target for the next leg up around 125k if the pattern fulfills its statistical expectation.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
2
BTC.D Top outHistory never repeats but it tends to rime quite well. If we use that saying as the base for this thesis then we should see BTC.D top out at between 69-78% dominance using the horizontal resistance at the previous dominance top (2021). To estimate this in a timely manner we plot the dates of the halvings and the date of BTC price ATH. To extrapolate the future cycle top we take the number of days from the halvings to the BTC price ATH and add them together and divide them by the number of cycle tops. x=(a+b+c)/3 Historically we find confluence in the RSI momentum oscillator were the strength of the BTC.D is weakening hence gaining momentum to the downside. If history rimes we are entering that part of the cycle within the next 3-6 months.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by ZeroXray404
Macroeconomic analysis, positioning, technical analysis. Short GHello everyone, today I want to share a trading idea that recently triggered my short entry. The GBP/AUD pair is hovering near period highs not seen since 2020. I think in the short term we might witness some pullback. Let’s analyze the situation. MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS - Data The latest data reflects a marked improvement in the Australian labor market, with the unemployment rate beating expectations. A rise to 4.2% was forecasted, but the figure dropped to 3.9%. This comes after the RBA decided to keep the reference rate unchanged, adopting a dovish tone compared to recent statements. It remains to be seen if this data could shift the narrative once again. - Economic growth The positioning and momentum on the pound indicate confidence that the economy could grow by 2025 or that inflation will remain stickier than expected. This affects the BOE’s monetary policy decisions. Interest rates have risen more than in other economies and are now at their peaks. On the other hand, the BOE recently adopted a dovish tone, suggesting the possibility of four rate cuts in 2025. In a recent article, Goldman Sachs highlighted that the UK’s growth might underperform expectations. UK GDP is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2025, slower than the Bank of England's 1.5% projection and slightly below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 1.3%. The team predicts growth of 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the last quarter of 2024, with a slowdown to around 0.25–0.30% quarterly for the remainder of the year. They also foresee inflationary pressures easing through 2025, paving the way for deeper rate cuts than currently priced in by the market. www.goldmansachs.com - Interest rates Interest rates in the UK have risen more than in other economies, reaching a peak of 4.6%, reflecting aggressive rate policies. Meanwhile, AUD/USD movements appear closely tied to Chinese rates, which are at historic lows, potentially priming for a rebound and, consequently, a recovery in the cross, due to potential stimulus measures for the Chinese economy. POSITIONING - COT (Commitment of Traders) Let’s analyze the COT to check for extremes on either side. www.tradingster.com . Long positioning on the pound is at its highest since 2018, while for the Australian dollar, we are in negative territory after a decline. Momentum does not favor either currency, as traders are offloading or increasing short positions. SEASONALITY We are entering a period of strong negative seasonality for the pound, which typically tends to decline from the first week of December until the end of the month. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS From a chart perspective, the pair has just broken a dynamic trendline support on the 4H chart after a strong rally to period highs. The RSI clearly shows overbought conditions with bearish divergence. Entry: Upon the break or retest of the trendline. Stop Loss: Above the volume area signaling the break. Take Profit: Near the volume area supporting the price. Thanks for your attention!
Short
by Riikkss
GBPJPY- Reversal above 195?After reaching a low of 188, GBP/JPY reversed to the upside in a normal corrective move and found resistance near the 192 zone. A subsequent drop followed, but instead of resuming its downtrend, the pair began consolidating within a range. The emerging pattern, while not perfect, resembles an inverse Head & Shoulders. A break above the neckline would confirm this formation and pave the way for further gains, potentially targeting the 195 resistance level. I remain bullish on GBP/JPY as long as the pair stays above the recent consolidation support.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
6
Bitcoin Log Regression 👀#Bitcoin Log Regression 👀 The orange line, as in the previous cycle, offers strong resistance. 💡I think CRYPTOCAP:BTC will stay at the current mark for another month. After that, we go to the correction, most likely it will not be a deep correction, but rather a consolidation. This is indicated by overbought and seasonality. ⛏️ And also the capitulation of miners after the halving is possible, this will lead to a decrease in the hashrate, which will slow down the growth for some time. But do not be sad, the bull market will continue closer to autumn↗️
BNC:BLX
by FeelsStrategy
GBPCAD Analysis - Bearish - Trade 06GBPCAD Analysis Overview --- 1. Seasonality GBP: Seasonality indicates a **sell** signal for GBP in the first week of December. CAD: Seasonality suggests a **strong buy** signal for CAD. Seasonality Bias: Sell GBPCAD --- 2. COT Report GBP: COT RSI: 52 weeks at 30%, 26 and 13 weeks at bottom. COT Index: 3-year at 50%, 1-year at 30%, indicating weak positioning for GBP. Net Non-Commercial: Decreasing, showing a bearish sentiment. CAD: COT RSI: 52, 26, and 13 weeks at 20% and increasing, showing bullish momentum. COT Index: 3-year and 1-year at 20% and increasing, aligning with a buy sentiment. Net Non-Commercial: Increasing, with a positive bias. COT Bias: Sell GBPCAD. --- 3. Fundamental Analysis Leading Economic Indicators: GBP: Decreasing, signaling economic weakness. CAD: Increasing, pointing to economic strength. Endogenous Factors: GBP: Decreasing, aligning with a sell sentiment. CAD: Increasing, further supporting a buy stance. Exogenous Factors: GBPCAD exogenous signal indicates a buy CAD, sell GBP sentiment. Fundamental Bias: Sell GBPCAD. --- 4. Technical Analysis RSI Divergence: Bearish divergence identified, indicating potential downside movement. Breakout Indicator: A red arrow confirms bearish momentum on key breakout levels. Resistance Zone: Price is currently at a strong resistance zone, showing rejection patterns. Technical Bias: Sell GBPCAD. --- Final Bias: Sell GBPCAD The alignment across seasonality, COT data, fundamental indicators, and technical analysis strongly supports a sell setup for GBPCAD.
Short
by asadamalik
AUDNZD Analysis - Bullish - Trade 07AUDNZD Analysis Overview --- 1. Seasonality AUD: Strong **buy** signal for the first week of December, suggesting upward momentum. NZD: Range-bound signal, indicating weaker performance compared to AUD. Seasonality Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- 2. COT Report AUD: COT RSI : Decreasing from the top but still indicates bullish positioning. COT Index : Near the top, signaling strong institutional interest in AUD. Net Non-Commercial : Increasing, aligning with a buy sentiment. NZD : COT RSI : At the bottom (0%), but overall positioning is weak. COT Index : Bottomed at 0%, reflecting limited institutional support for NZD. Net Non-Commercial : Decreasing, suggesting bearish momentum. COT Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- 3. Fundamental Analysis Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) : AUD : Increasing, pointing to improving economic conditions. NZD : Increasing, but weaker overall impact compared to AUD. Endogenous Factors: AUD : Mix to decreasing, but seasonal strength supports AUD’s buy case. NZD : Increasing, but weaker compared to AUD. Exogenous Factors : AUDNZD exogenous signal supports a buy AUD, sell NZD bias. Fundamental Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- 4. Technical Analysis RSI Divergence: Bullish divergence spotted on the 4H timeframe, signaling potential upward movement. Parallel Channel : Price is at the bottom of a bearish parallel channel, indicating possible reversal to the upside. Daily Support : Currently holding above a strong daily support zone, reinforcing the bullish setup. Technical Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- Final Bias: Buy AUDNZD All factors—seasonality, COT data, fundamentals, and technicals—align in favor of a BUY setup for AUDNZD. This pair shows potential for upward movement, supported by strong economic and technical signals.
Long
by asadamalik
BITCOIN NEWBORN Ver.2Previous maps have factored in BTC's journey when the price was at 25k which fell to 15k. everything is very precise, but unfortunately, it turns out that the map cannot be published due to problems with language and domicile regulations! And now, I'm just looking at the equivalent of Bitcoin's current state (Feb 2023) to 2020 Feb, in 1M TF . It all starts with a rising wedge pattern and there are brekouts and brekdowns within it (it's more of a long rising wedge ) I'm sure February 2020 will happen again. And we are currently in the red candle (1 Feb 2023) at 21.8K as of this note. and again, I really believe Bitcoin will arrive at 60k-150k. you can see a rough price range for this movement of Bitcoin.
Long
by pungkymegawan
2