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Seasonality

BTC Halving & CyclesSimple chart showing duration of previous bull and bear periods. Overlayed with Bitcoin halving event and duration to market top. - Green arrows show period from halving event to market top. - Red arrows show period from market top to market bottom. - Black arrows show period market bottom to market top. Bitcoin price has followed a similar pattern of roughly 539 days (mean) from halving event to the market top. Then roughly 364 days from the market top to market bottom. Will history repeat itself?
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CCCCCCC7
SHOP - Back to bullish after correction - BullishNYSE:SHOP -Positive trend and following trendlines -Exceptions on Octobers (different low trendline) -Just did a correction and filled a vector -Already hit the 50EMA in the daily timeframe, and very close to hitting the 800EMA in the hourly timeframe -A huge gap ~85.5 to be filled, and possible higher targets -Stop loss slightly lower than ~70 (as it means it broke the strong support) The fun part with this trade is low risk (only ~4% loss with possibly ~18% profit) *Not Financial Advice*
NYSE:SHOPLong
by a_ag
1
DOT cycle analysis: VERY BULLISHThe chart in the middle is the market cap of all altcoins minus stablecoins divided by BTC's market cap. as you can see during the last bullrun we had a decline of this value while the price was rising slowly while bitcoin's price was rallying, and as soon as btc started reaching its top then DOT rallied massively. Today's situation is extremely similar to that. I would suggest to get your positions ready for a big jump as soon as btc stops rallying as it has been doing in the past month. I think we will see some consolidation above the 10 dollars resistance and then a big rally to about 20 dollars. Good luck and have fun!
Long
by icehax
2
XRP: Bull Market VibesXRP, like many other cryptocurrencies, has experienced significant fluctuations over the past few years. In this article, we will analyze XRP's behavior from 2018 to the present, focusing on the bull market that started in December 2020. Descending Channel (2018-2020) From the summer of 2018 to December 2020, XRP was in a descending channel. This period was characterized by low volatility and a gradual decrease in price. Sharp Pump and Bull Market (December 2020 - May 2022) In December 2020, XRP surged sharply, breaking out of the descending channel. This pamp marked the beginning of a bull market that lasted until May 2022. Ascending Channel (May 2022 - Present) Since May 2022, XRP has been trading in an ascending channel. This channel is characterized by clear support and resistance lines, as well as XRP constantly testing the upper channel boundary. Pump Expectation On the daily timeframe, XRP shows a decrease in volatility. This pattern often precedes a sharp rise in price, so it can be expected that XRP is about to make a new pamp. Bullish Sentiment Confirmation: XRP has been holding in an ascending channel for 7 months, without breaking the support line. The price is constantly testing the upper boundary of the channel, which indicates the bulls' pressure. Decreased volatility on the daily timeframe is a typical pattern before a pamp. Important Caveats: It is important to conduct your own research and assess the risks before investing
Editors' picks
Long
by Yaroslav_Krasko
57
AMC - So you're saying there's a chance?Michael Saylor once said "If BTC doesn't go to Zero, it's going to MIL:1M +". While I don't think AMC will ever be a moonshot like Bitcoin, I do think that if they don't go bankrupt in the next 2 years, there's a pretty good chance we 2x - 5x from current levels in the next 3 - 5 years. I'm using this video for myself as a Vlog to manage my emotions in what I imagine will be a wild ride (up and down) for this trade. I'll be curious to look back on this in 2026. I'll either look like a genius, or just another retail investor thinking they could beat the market. ;-)
NYSE:AMCLong
by BTC4Retirement
7
GLD , the gold futures ETF LONGGLD is shown on this 240 minute chart with a falt top triangle drawn with upper and lower trendlines for resistance and support. A volume profile is overlaid. Text boxes comment on the basis for the trade and the use of the relative strength indicator. Price is low in the high volume area confluent with the support line. I see this as a long trade set up and ready to go. Zooming into a 15-50 minute time frame will help find the best entry. The RSI indicator would need to have its time frame settings adjusted I typically use one half the chart time and twice the chart time to get a decent time spread, Gold is forecasted by some to reach $3000 spot price in 2024. Gold and Bitcoin compete for dollar attention. Things will be interesting for sure.
AMEX:GLDLong
by AwesomeAvani
SRF - will its tested consolidation bear fruit?Price is contained around 2000-2500 range for more than 3 years now. It could have broken out earlier but the financials are not favourable for that to happen. Despite the negative quarters for SRF price is still holding its range — this hints that: market is waiting for positive news and any little positive can bring rush in price movement! Since Management is expecting a recovery in 4QFY24 — if it happens I can visualise the price action as shown in the chart.
NSE:SRFLong
by shivalingesh
Will Bitcoin Hit ATH Before Halving?I posted a Log Regression when #Bitcoin was 15k. I publish now when it is 62k. So CRYPTOCAP:BTC has already done x4. What now? Shall we break the ATH? Let's consider the pros and cons. This is why yes: ➕Increasing global liquidity. ➕So far, positive flow from ETFs. Here's why not: ➖Strong overbought ➖Previously, there was no ATH breakout before the halving. And immediately after, the "sell in May" season. ➖Strong sales began (in medium wallets), because many people consider ATH a good zone to sell the part. 💡Conclusion. If we do not break the ATH in the next 2 months, it will likely happen in the autumn. In the base case scenario, I only expect a test ATH unless ETF flows and liquidity increase significantly.
BNC:BLXShort
by FeelsStrategy
1
250,000 % ASMUSD Is this a huge cup and handle?!While looking around, I found this. It appears to be a cup and handle on the daily or weekly logarithmic chart with a price target of around $1.00 if it were to play out. The current price is around 0.04. Newly increasing volume on recent time frames since alts started moving. My monitor does not give it justice. Full disclosure, I bought a little while I wait for confirmation. You have to see this on your monitor. I don't know anything about the coin, just looked at the pattern and did a little TA on it.
COINBASE:ASMUSDLong
by BreakingGood
1
ISM Manufacturing New Order IndexMacro Monday (6) United States ISM Manufacturing New Order Index - ECONOMICS:USMNO This week I have honed in on the Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing New Orders Index (ISM New Orders Index) as it is the largest component of the headline Purchaser Managers Index(PMI) making up 30% of that index. I also make the case below for how it can act as leading indicator of demand by way of trend projection. The ISM New Orders Index is an indicator of U.S. economic activity based on a survey of more than 300 purchasing managers at manufacturing firms advising if orders have increased, decreased or stayed the same. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates the expansion in the manufacturing sector which is interpreted as a positive indicator of economic growth. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector which suggests a slowing economy. According to Investopedia "ISM data is considered to be a leading indicator of economic trends. Not only does the ISM Manufacturing Index report information on the prior two months, it outlines long-term trends that have been building over time based on prevailing economic conditions". The ISM reports are released on the first business day of each month for the month that has previously closed. Thus, they are some of the earliest indicators of current economic activity that investors and business people get regularly. ISM New orders provide an indication of current consumer demand. Utilizing a chart of New Orders readings we can attempt to understand the trend of consumer demand forward. ISM New Orders could be considered an additional gauge of consumer sentiment because if businesses are reporting increases in orders month over month, this demonstrates consumers have the consistently had the resources and the desire to spend. If this continues over months a trend can form and we can capture this direction on a chart. To support the ISM predictive argument I include a chart that illustrates a correlation between the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, the latter of which is considered one of thee leading indicators for predicting future consumer spending/demand. This will be posted in the comments. According to the University of Michigan, the Consumer Sentiment Surveys "have proven to be an accurate indicator of the future course of the national economy." Based on the above correlation I postulate that we can use the ISM New Orders Index as an additional leading/predictive indicator to establish what direction consumer demand is trending. The ISM New Orders Chart Focusing on the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index Chart you can see that a breach below the sub 50 level can act as a leading or affirming indicator of a slowing economy, lowering consumer demand/sentiment and ultimately recession. Orange Zone Historically If we enter into the orange area and stay there for greater than 7 months it has resulted in a recession every time except for 1966 and 1995 (8 out of 10 times). Some analysts have recognised and compared the similarities of the current period to the 1995/96 period. The similarities are evident on this chart with two touches or bounces from the red zone which appears to be happening at present. The August and September ISM New Orders reading will ultimately tell us if this will play out similar to 1995/96 or not. We know what to expect if it doesn’t. Red Zone Anytime we have entered into the red zone we have confirmed a recession. Its key to realise that recessions are typically assigned 8 months after they have started and this could mean we are already in one... Interestingly we have toe dipped into the red zone twice, in Feb and May 2023 however I do not see this as a definitive move into the red zone, I see these as bounces from this level as noted above. Moment of Truth for ISM New Orders What is clear from looking at the chart is that we are at a critical juncture as we have been 13 months in the orange zone which is a historic first. The coming months readings for August (released Sept) and September (released Oct) will be vitally important for providing an indication of the direction of the economy. A drop down into the red zone and you know what to expect. A rise out of the orange area and above the 50 level would be positive however we have been rejected from areas above 50 in the past (see red lines on chart). I have included some rough fractals from periods in the past (arrows in grey) where we were previously rejected from the 52 and 54 level only to be dumped back into the red and into recession. It’s great that we are aware of these potential false flags so that we don’t get ahead of ourselves. It’s important to note that these fractal examples from 1980, 1990 & 1967 are not projections, just observations from past readings on what may be possible. It only highlights that we need to be cautious, even if we rise above the 50 level, we can be rejected into recession from the 52 and the 54 level. This is why we need help from other charts and indicators to help gauge the likelihood of a continuation higher or rejection lower. Here on Macro Mondays we have been and will continue to build a portfolio of leading market charts/indicators that you can check for free on my Trading View and see how they are all progressing. These charts will include trigger events and will be updated as matters progress. The charts can help inform you of the direction of the economy, the market and help you anticipate or time any potential looming recession. Some prior charts and their indications to date (all linked under this article); Concerning Charts: o Macro Monday 2 – The 2/10 year Treasury Spread FRED:T10Y2Y : The current yield curve inversion on the 2/10 year Treasury Spread historically provided an advance warning of recession/capitulation in 2000, 2007 & 2020 however it provided us a wide 6 - 22 month window of time from the time the yield curve made its first definitive turn back up to the 0% level. September will be month 6 of that 6 – 22 month window and thus we are clearly entering dangerous territory. o Macro Monday 6 – ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index ECONOMICS:USMNO : Its clear from our chart shared today that the ISM New Orders Index is also entering into dangerous territory having been below the sub 50 level and in the orange zone for 13 months. This has never happened before without a recession, bar a lessor 12 month timeframe in the orange zone in 1995/96. The ISM Manufacturing New Orders readings for August and September will be vital indicators for the direction of the economy. o Macro Monday 4 – Global Net Liquidity Vs S&P 500 NYSE:GNL : We shared this chart on the 3rd July as an advance warning of an imminent and expected pull back in the $SPX500. A negative divergence was evident on the chart as Global Net liquidity was decreasing for 6 months from Jan – July 2023 and the S&P 500 increased over the same period. Please review the chart press play and see how accurate this call has been. GNL is currently signalling at minimum a continued correction over the months of Aug and Sept. Side Note: I am very aware of the Halloween effect in which markets rally into the months of October – December thus a pull back in Aug/Sept could end up being short term with a surge in the markets in October. The ISM reading for August (released in Sept) and September (released October) should help us gauge what outcome is more likely. Any increase/decrease in GNL will also offer insight over those months. Aside from this we should be aware of any Fiscal Stimulus that is announced as this would likely have a significant impact. I hope to cover Fiscal Stimulus in coming Macro Mondays, it’s a work in progress. Charts Demonstrating Strength: o Macro Monday 1 - Dow Jones Transportation Index ( DJ:DJT ): The transportation sector acts as a leading indicator as it is further up the value chain ahead of the final products being sold by companies in Dow Jones Industrial Average $DJI. It is similar to ISM Manufacturing New orders in this regard, ahead of or at point of sale execution. When the Dow Jones Industrial Average TVC:DJI is climbing higher while the DJT is falling (Negative Divergence), it can be a signal of economic weakness ahead, this occurred prior to March 2020 capitulation, making this a very valuable tool to have in our arsenal. - In our chart recently shared a positive weekly MACD cross gave us a heads up that price might break through strong resistance levels, which it in fact did. If we can make the prior resistance level support and bounce off the support, price could stretch to all-time highs at which point we can reassess. o Macro Monday 3 – SPDR Homebuilder Index AMEX:XHB : The Chart can be used as a leading indicator for the US housing market as the stocks in the XHB comprise of companies that provide the materials and products to build new houses and renovate homes. These products are higher up the supply chain and sold before construction commences or during. In the past the XHB chart provided a significant advance 12 month+ warning of the 2007 Great Financial Crisis which is illustrated in red on that chart. - Since sharing the chart price appears to be on course to testing its all time high and has a bullish MACD Cross on the monthly. This could also be a double top however historic positive MACD Cross performance suggests we have higher to go. Its looking positive. o Macro Monday 5 – Arca Major Markets Index (XMI): The XMI has proven itself as a leading indicator as it provided an advanced 9 month warning of the follow up recession/capitulation price action that initiated in Sept 2000 on the S&P 500. - Since we shared this chart it has broken above its all time highs and is currently resting on support. A bounce higher here would be confirmation of the uptrend, however this could be a false breakout which would be confirmed if we lost the support. This chart will be important to watch for the August – September period also, again highlighting just how important these 2 months are. Conclusion Its clear from all of the above charts that the price and readings for the months of August and September 2023 will be critical to determining the potentiality of a recession / market capitulation or for letting us know will there be continuation of climbing the wall of worry. Its clear that we are at an inflection point over the next 60 days. Based solely on the charts shared to date the fact that the DJT, XMI and XHB are still leaning bullish, I remain long term long until these charts break down or the GNL and ISM Manufacturing Index confirms to the downside. That does not mean that we can’t get a 10% ,15% or 20% pullback in the S&P over the next 60 days, this would not surprise me, however based on some of the charts I have shared previously I think it is probably that this will be a temporary pull back. This leans me towards thinking that if there is a hard landing, it will come later in 2024 or even 2025. If that view changes and the above positive charts pull back, ill be the first to let you know. Stay Nimble folks, August and September are decision time. PUKA
ECONOMICS:USMNO
by PukaCharts
2