Get started

Seasonality

COFFEE - My Commodity of ChoiceI've laid out a plan I'm looking at on one of my favorite commodities - COFFEE ☕😍 What makes it so hard is the predictability of the weather - nearly impossible for the future. However, it is odd to see that the price still bonces at key support and resistance zones, almost like any "stock". Which tells me regular market trading still applies despite the odd weather event. The reason Coffee has fallen so hard over the past few months is supply - due to extremely favorable weather conditions, coffee supply is more than demand. Resulting, as market dynamics goes, in a drop of price. It's unfortunate though that my favorite pack of beans at the supermarket has not gone down - weird how that works 🙄 I like a medium roast, Columbia single origin. It's dropped -33% already, but I can clearly see the market structure entering bearish phase after the bullish phase, peak (the new high) and now likely a multi-month bearish season. The question is just where the price can bottom for such a well loved commodity. I looked at past cycles, not too long ago we dropped roughly 44% during the bearish cycle, taking 2-3 years to move into accumulation before another impulse wave up. That places a target for entry exactly in the highlighted zone around $250ish. But I wouldn't get too greedy on my favorite commodity, buying orders can't be too low either. This would likely have to be a multiyear hold. Pepperstone sells coffee on cash contract but I usually do futures. Pity that I didn't get in sooner, bullish cycles is also at least a 2 year journey. I'll sell when the weather is bad 😅 Next up? Chocolate for sure...
PEPPERSTONE:COFFEEShort
by BlockTechEv
4
Banana zone starts when PMI is above 53.Check your charts to verify this fact. Total 2 with the US Purchasing Managers Index overlain. The PMI is one of the most reliable leading indicators for assessing the state of the U.S. economy. Previous Banana zones have coincided with the PMI above 53. so not just when the economy is growing, but when the economy has entered humming along approaching full acceleration. This is when most people will feel confidence and WANT to take on more risk as they are most optimistic about the future when the economy is in this state of being.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2Long
by BallaJi
2
MUSK on TRUMP's Bill | "outrageous, disgusting abomination"Elon Musk’s sided against the latest Trump-backed tax-and-spending package, in a plot twist between the recent partners turned enemies. Musk called the legislation a “massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill” and a “disgusting abomination,” publicly shaming senators and representatives who backed it. With such a strong opinion against it one may wonder, is this going to negatively affect Tesla? Together with this strong reaction, the price has already been trading lower for the past few days. The administration has defended it as the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” insisting it will stimulate growth, even though Elon Musk warned the bill would swell the U.S. budget deficit by roughly $2.3–2.5 trillion over the next decade, calling the added debt “crushingly unsustainable”. When I first read this, it made me think of Tesla's long generated “green credits”, which in 2024 alone, brought in roughly $2.76 billion. “green credits” (officially, zero-emission or regulatory credits) work by building more clean vehicles than required and selling the excess allowances to other automakers that need them to comply with emissions mandates. Now I'm no expert on US policy, and so I roped in GPT to help me explain how this new bill implicates TESLA's profit: Under the Senate’s “big, beautiful” tax-and-spending bill, Tesla’s regulatory-credit business faces two assaults: ❗ Repeal of CAFE- and ZEV-mandates The bill would eliminate penalties for automakers missing Corporate Average Fuel Economy targets and roll back zero-emission vehicle mandates that currently force legacy manufacturers to buy credits if they fall short. Remove those penalties and mandates, and there’s no structural need for credits—undercutting the very market that funds Tesla’s $2–3 billion-a-year credit-sales business ❗ End of consumer EV tax incentives By phasing out the $7,500 new-EV credit (and the $4,000 used-EV credit) within months of enactment, the bill dampens U.S. EV demand overall. A smaller EV market means fewer opportunities for Tesla to leverage fleet-wide ZEV regulations against higher-emitting rivals—further squeezing credit prices and volume Bottom line: Without CAFE/ZEV obligations and with EV purchase subsidies gone, Tesla’s “green-credit” line—a major profit driver in recent quarters—would likely collapse, removing a key buffer against manufacturing and pricing pressures. This could be the beginning of a bear market for Tesla lasting throughout the rest of the Trump administration. ________________________ NASDAQ:TSLA
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Crypto-Check-
13
June trading results - three automated trading systemsHi, In month of June 2025, my three automated trading systems made 32 trades on ME.S and MN.Q. The pnl pie charts are on the screen. I lost about $1,000 in total. I trade on Micro. Well, I was up for the past 5 month but this kinda hurts, but its ok, I should not give up. I have back tested my strategies using python backtrader in 5 years (rolling walk forward), I know that lost is also expected. My system trades on 15 min candle, and I use tradingView + tradovate automation system which I built myself.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by QuantByBoji
2
July Seasonality Patterns For Index, Metals and ForexSeasonality can be a useful tool if used wisely (and in context) with current sentiment and news flows. Seasonality really is a backwards looking indicator that can easily be overpowered by key macro drivers. But its strength comes in to play when seasonality aligns with the macro landscape. With that in mind, I share my seasonality matrix for indices, metals and USD FX pairs to highlight potential patterns for July, then wrap up with an update on my Nasdaq 100 analysis. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by CityIndex
Bitcoin Log Regression 👀#Bitcoin Log Regression 👀 The orange line, as in the previous cycle, offers strong resistance. 💡I think CRYPTOCAP:BTC will stay at the current mark for another month. After that, we go to the correction, most likely it will not be a deep correction, but rather a consolidation. This is indicated by overbought and seasonality. ⛏️ And also the capitulation of miners after the halving is possible, this will lead to a decrease in the hashrate, which will slow down the growth for some time. But do not be sad, the bull market will continue closer to autumn↗️
BNC:BLX
by FeelsStrategy
2
Automating Your Trading Pipeline: Series Overview Hello fellow traders! Over the next week I’ll be rolling out a short series on how to take your TradingView alerts all the way through to live orders—fully automated—using AWS and the Tradovate API. Today’s post is just the big-picture overview. In the days ahead we’ll peel back the layers and show you exactly how each piece fits together: TradingView PineScript Alerts: how to craft alert payloads in Pine. AWS API Gateway web-hook: receiving and validating your alerts. AWS Lambda Python – processing payloads & calculating SL and TP. Tradovate REST API – placing bracket (OCO) orders. Telegram Notifications – real-time trade confirmations to your phone. At the end of this series you’ll have a fully-automated end-to-end pipeline, no more manual order entry! Stay tuned for Part 2 , when we’ll dive into crafting precise JSON alerts in PineScript.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by QuantByBoji
ETHUSD Potential long ideaThe market made an all time high at 4095.4 following the November bull run. Street money flooded premium prices trying to buy above all time highs. Once price inevitably dropped from that premium level all of the bulls who bought above premium provided not only exit liquidity for longer term traders, but also "resistance" or "supply" levels that are easily recognizable for anyone who wants to double down on their position once the market forms what appears to be a short term low. Seeing this kind of trading occur in the way that it is occurring and at the prices that it is occurring at gives me insight that the market is now going to enter ranging conditions pairing liquidity from both sides of the range. the market goes right to 01.23.24 low at 2165 and sweeps that level eventually making its way right back to 4097.4 only $2 higher than the all time high. These 3 levels being used in this way to send the market to both sides of a trapped range is done to allow for time to pass and orders to build up. Since the overall trend of the crypto markets and ETH in general is upward, I am assigning this behavior to institutional accumulation of discount prices. Under this assumption I will look to see a new short term low set in the market. I will see that signature begin when a short term high leads to taking out a htf discount level with an aggressive displacement lower. I can expect to see these sweeps just above or just below key lows Key prices to watch - Sunday 05.18.25 low; 2325 - Friday 05.09.25 H4 +ob; 2350.9 - Daily dealing range C.E; 2271.5 - Daily + Breaker open 2081.5 - M0A_. 1732.5
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by M-0-A_Insights