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Seasonality

GBPCAD Analysis - Bearish - Trade 06GBPCAD Analysis Overview --- 1. Seasonality GBP: Seasonality indicates a **sell** signal for GBP in the first week of December. CAD: Seasonality suggests a **strong buy** signal for CAD. Seasonality Bias: Sell GBPCAD --- 2. COT Report GBP: COT RSI: 52 weeks at 30%, 26 and 13 weeks at bottom. COT Index: 3-year at 50%, 1-year at 30%, indicating weak positioning for GBP. Net Non-Commercial: Decreasing, showing a bearish sentiment. CAD: COT RSI: 52, 26, and 13 weeks at 20% and increasing, showing bullish momentum. COT Index: 3-year and 1-year at 20% and increasing, aligning with a buy sentiment. Net Non-Commercial: Increasing, with a positive bias. COT Bias: Sell GBPCAD. --- 3. Fundamental Analysis Leading Economic Indicators: GBP: Decreasing, signaling economic weakness. CAD: Increasing, pointing to economic strength. Endogenous Factors: GBP: Decreasing, aligning with a sell sentiment. CAD: Increasing, further supporting a buy stance. Exogenous Factors: GBPCAD exogenous signal indicates a buy CAD, sell GBP sentiment. Fundamental Bias: Sell GBPCAD. --- 4. Technical Analysis RSI Divergence: Bearish divergence identified, indicating potential downside movement. Breakout Indicator: A red arrow confirms bearish momentum on key breakout levels. Resistance Zone: Price is currently at a strong resistance zone, showing rejection patterns. Technical Bias: Sell GBPCAD. --- Final Bias: Sell GBPCAD The alignment across seasonality, COT data, fundamental indicators, and technical analysis strongly supports a sell setup for GBPCAD.
Short
by asadamalik
AUDNZD Analysis - Bullish - Trade 07AUDNZD Analysis Overview --- 1. Seasonality AUD: Strong **buy** signal for the first week of December, suggesting upward momentum. NZD: Range-bound signal, indicating weaker performance compared to AUD. Seasonality Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- 2. COT Report AUD: COT RSI : Decreasing from the top but still indicates bullish positioning. COT Index : Near the top, signaling strong institutional interest in AUD. Net Non-Commercial : Increasing, aligning with a buy sentiment. NZD : COT RSI : At the bottom (0%), but overall positioning is weak. COT Index : Bottomed at 0%, reflecting limited institutional support for NZD. Net Non-Commercial : Decreasing, suggesting bearish momentum. COT Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- 3. Fundamental Analysis Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) : AUD : Increasing, pointing to improving economic conditions. NZD : Increasing, but weaker overall impact compared to AUD. Endogenous Factors: AUD : Mix to decreasing, but seasonal strength supports AUD’s buy case. NZD : Increasing, but weaker compared to AUD. Exogenous Factors : AUDNZD exogenous signal supports a buy AUD, sell NZD bias. Fundamental Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- 4. Technical Analysis RSI Divergence: Bullish divergence spotted on the 4H timeframe, signaling potential upward movement. Parallel Channel : Price is at the bottom of a bearish parallel channel, indicating possible reversal to the upside. Daily Support : Currently holding above a strong daily support zone, reinforcing the bullish setup. Technical Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- Final Bias: Buy AUDNZD All factors—seasonality, COT data, fundamentals, and technicals—align in favor of a BUY setup for AUDNZD. This pair shows potential for upward movement, supported by strong economic and technical signals.
Long
by asadamalik
BITCOIN NEWBORN Ver.2Previous maps have factored in BTC's journey when the price was at 25k which fell to 15k. everything is very precise, but unfortunately, it turns out that the map cannot be published due to problems with language and domicile regulations! And now, I'm just looking at the equivalent of Bitcoin's current state (Feb 2023) to 2020 Feb, in 1M TF . It all starts with a rising wedge pattern and there are brekouts and brekdowns within it (it's more of a long rising wedge ) I'm sure February 2020 will happen again. And we are currently in the red candle (1 Feb 2023) at 21.8K as of this note. and again, I really believe Bitcoin will arrive at 60k-150k. you can see a rough price range for this movement of Bitcoin.
Long
by pungkymegawan
2
USDCAD - CAD Vs tariffs!The USDCAD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. The correction of this currency pair towards the demand zone will provide us with the next buying position. You can sell up to the bottom of the ascending channel within the specified supply zone with the appropriate risk reward. The Canadian dollar has underperformed against other currencies this year, largely due to the Bank of Canada’s consistent interest rate cuts. It is expected that the central bank will lower interest rates for the fifth time in December, though the likelihood of a 50-basis-point cut has diminished following a higher-than-expected inflation report. The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) and the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) still foresee the possibility of a larger rate cut. Meanwhile, per capita GDP data reveals that economic growth has declined for the sixth consecutive period. Monthly GDP figures indicate that growth in September and October was only 0.1%. According to CIBC, domestic demand remained relatively stable during this time, comparable to the previous quarter. However, monthly data shows that the third quarter ended with gradual deceleration rather than the sharp rebound initially expected, leading to significantly lower fourth-quarter forecasts compared to the projections in October’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR). RBC maintains its prediction of a 50-basis-point rate cut but has stated that Friday’s employment report will be closely monitored ahead of the central bank’s December 11 meeting. “GDP numbers reinforce the notion that current interest rates are higher than necessary to maintain inflation at the 2% target. The Bank of Canada will also closely monitor next week’s labor market data, but a further 50-basis-point cut in December is likely,” an analyst remarked. Currently, the Bank of Canada projects 2% GDP growth in the fourth quarter, but this figure is likely to be revised downward. With government forecasts suggesting population declines, the central bank may adopt a more cautious approach for 2025. Deputy Governor Mendes of the Bank of Canada stated that inflation is gradually easing and will eventually stabilize at 2%. Lower inflation will boost consumer and business confidence, encouraging spending and investment. If the economy evolves as anticipated, further rate cuts could be possible. However, he emphasized that decisions will be made step-by-step, considering both above-target and below-target inflation. Mendes warned that additional measures to curb inflation might hurt economic growth, with potentially more negative long-term consequences than short-term benefits. According to Axios, a senior Canadian Liberal minister involved in Sunday’s negotiations stated that Canadian officials plan to “visibly and robustly” enhance border security following a meeting between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President-elect Trump. Trump previously threatened to impose tariffs on Canada and other countries due to his concerns over migrants and drugs entering the U.S. Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s Public Safety Minister, told CBC Radio and Television that Canadian officials met with Trump and Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick to discuss tariffs and their implications for the economy. LeBlanc stressed that existing border security cooperation remains strong but noted concerns over firearm smuggling from the U.S. LeBlanc also shared that during an informal dinner with Trudeau, Trump jokingly suggested that Canada become the 51st U.S. state. He clarified that the comment was made in jest and was not meant seriously.
Short
by Ali_PSND
AUDUSD Analysis - Bearish - Trade 021. Seasonality: During the first week of December, the USD exhibits bearish momentum, while the AUD shows bullish tendencies. This combination makes AUDUSD overall bullish. 2. COT Report: The AUD's COT RSI and Index are near the top, while the USD is near the bottom, indicating potential overextension. This suggests a bearish outlook for AUDUSD. 3. Fundamental Analysis: LEI The USD Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) is increasing, while the AUD LEI is decreasing. Global LEI is also rising, favoring USD strength and adding a bearish tone to AUDUSD. Endogenous Factors These suggest bearish pressure for the AUD and bullish sentiment for the USD, further supporting a bearish bias. Exogenous Factors Exogenous influences, however, indicate an increase in AUDUSD, favoring a bullish trend. 4. Technical Analysis: AUDUSD is forming an ABCD pattern and is currently at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level on the 1-hour chart. Additionally, there is significant resistance on the 4-hour chart, indicating potential bearish pressure from a technical standpoint. Summary The analysis presents mixed signals: seasonality and exogenous factors favor bullishness, while the COT report, LEI trends, endogenous factors, and technical resistance suggest bearish potential. Bias The combined analysis leans toward a short entry for AUDUSD. Trade Plan Entry: 0.64746 SL: 0.65130 TP: 0.64362
Short
by asadamalik
$LLY Long-Term BuyHealthcare could possibly be the next rotation coming out of this tech bull run. Using the Trade Jeanie (Jeanius Screener/Indicator), I was able to see the current technical buy signals happening on NYSE:LLY : Inside a HTF fair value gap (3M timeframe) Took out an untested low (liquidity) The Jeanius Indicator shows green 'Combo' labels every time this same combination of signals happened The Jeanius Screener lets me filter my favorite tickers to see which ones are currently taking out untested lows or liquidity
NYSE:LLYLong
by jeanius_tech
End of Year Palladium Bull Run \o/From the current notation, I see this leveraged ETF on Palladium rising approximately 45% until the end of the year. The reasons are as follows: Fundamental Factors : With increasing sanctions on Russia, one of the main exporters of palladium, global supply may become constrained. Furthermore, inflationary pressures might drive commodity prices higher. Technical Indicators : The Palladium chart has recently formed a higher high, and a higher low appears to be developing. The price has crossed above the 200-day SMA, and now the 30-, 50-, and 200-day SMAs are bullishly aligned. Seasonality: The seasonal strength in OANDA:XPDUSD is expected to begin the week after next. So, we could get ready for rising prices in Palladium!
LSE:2PALLong
by p4917
Will Bitcoin Hit ATH Before Halving?I posted a Log Regression when #Bitcoin was 15k. I publish now when it is 62k. So CRYPTOCAP:BTC has already done x4. What now? Shall we break the ATH? Let's consider the pros and cons. This is why yes: ➕Increasing global liquidity. ➕So far, positive flow from ETFs. Here's why not: ➖Strong overbought ➖Previously, there was no ATH breakout before the halving. And immediately after, the "sell in May" season. ➖Strong sales began (in medium wallets), because many people consider ATH a good zone to sell the part. 💡Conclusion. If we do not break the ATH in the next 2 months, it will likely happen in the autumn. In the base case scenario, I only expect a test ATH unless ETF flows and liquidity increase significantly.
BNC:BLXShort
by FeelsStrategy
1
Nifty SmallCap 100 Elliot Wave ViewWave 2 of 3: This corrective wave occurred between September 2022 and March 2023, lasting approximately 28 weeks, as highlighted in the chart. Wave 4's Progression: The recent peak in September suggests symmetry in the cycle, mirroring Wave 2's timeline. If Wave 4 matches Wave 2 in duration (around 28 weeks), the current upward movement could still be part of the corrective Wave 4 rather than a new impulse wave. Time Symmetry: Considering the reverse channel projection and the similarity in duration with Wave 2, March 2026 emerges as a potential time window for the commencement of Wave 5 of 3, which could lead to a significant breakout beyond the current range.
NSE:CNXSMALLCAP
by Shivam_Gaba