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Seasonality

Tesla: Red on the YearThe S&P 500 is up about 23 percent this year, but Tesla has turned red again. The first pattern on today’s chart is the $248.48 level were TSLA ended 2023. The EV maker managed to tick above that level in July and late September. But last week it returned decisively below it. The stock also made a lower monthly high, which is potentially consistent with a downtrend. Next, traders may see space to the downside. The late-August low and 200-day simple moving average are both near $202.50. Below that, chart watchers may eye the early August low of $182 and the June low of $167.41. The 52-week low is down at $138.80. Given the strong performance in so many other names, TSLA’s weakness may stick out like a sore thumb. That may create further risks given this point on the calendar. Will investors, sitting on gains in other stocks, look to harvest tax losses in TSLA? Could it also fall prey to bearish “window-dressing” as yearend approaches? TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by TradeStation
CLSK: Big Move ComingCLSK technicals look like the price is ready to make a move up. Weekly MACD beginning to curl higher, higher highs and lows on the RSI, and volume profile support with a massive volume gap to the upside provide for a bullish setup. BTC is approaching the time frame where historically, post-halving, the price per coin moons higher. Additionally, the US fed is lowering rates and china is providing stimulus to their economy, which will provide for more cash that can make its way into crypto. CLSK’s hashrate expansion and BTC owned can make this miner a prime benefactor of a bullish BTC move.
NASDAQ:CLSKLong
by jasongoldman1
XAU DUMP INCOMINGHey guys, gold played out as per our prediction yesterday on the buy side after the CPI. Today, I see gold is about to take a massive dump towards the 2587 zone. It's still on a bearish movement and has taken the 0.62 Fib as retracement. However, there will be short pullbacks on its way down. I guess London will give us a little hint on its dump volume. Anyway, today is Friday, and it can be crazy before the PPI data comes out during the New York session. Trade safe, trade smart.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by paulsmith007
2
Get Ready For The "Top 13 Iron Watchlist" + Gold Price ActionThis is something I have been struggling with "what indicator to use for the top 13 Iron watchlist ?? "which I will reveal to you On the 19th Of October,2024 This watchlist is whats going to rocket boost my trading for 2025 - Look at this chart notice that the stochastic rsi 3 day moving average has crossed the 14 day moving average? Also notice that the price is in an uptrend? -- This asset price is from the Top 13 Iron Watchlist This watchlist is a new way of looking at not only the market But what makes this one unique Is its purpose is to allow me to trade the market cycles both bear and bull markets alike One of the assets on this watchlist is this one COMEX:GC1! Because its a very powerful asset that protects against inflation With this Top13 iron watchlist the assets on this watchlist show you the assets that will turn and show you the market cycles of 2025 LIVE.. These are the assets that will show you the market cycles To learn more check out the rocket booster strategy as well Because I will also be using this strategy to determine the trend of the asset found on the Top13 iron watchlist Rocket boost this content to learn morre. Disclaimer:Trading is risky you will lose money wether you like it or not so please learn risk management and profit taking strategies.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by lubosi
XRP Bullish DumpingReason for neutral: I believe price will dip again to present bearish, then it will bounce. It shouldn't break down under June low again if it were to bounce. XRPBTC and its USDT pairing reaction View of the range that developed after Coinbase delist & relist Price target ideas based on ranging and mean reversion Sources, used the earliest I could find for the accurate prices at public news drops: Ripple Sales of XRP Do Not Constitute Offer of Investment Contracts: Judge x.com Today, the SEC voted to attack crypto. Chairman Jay Clayton - in his final act - is picking winners and trying to limit US innovation in the crypto industry to BTC and ETH. (1/3) x.com Coinbase will suspend trading in XRP on January 19 Updated July 13th at 5:35pm ET - Coinbase has relisted XRP: twitter.com In light of the SEC’s recent action against Ripple Labs, Inc., Coinbase plans to suspend trading in XRP on Tuesday, January 19, 2021 at 10 AM PST. www.coinbase.com See my related idea for a chuckle
by NeoButane
Invite Only to Followers (Seasonal Investing with Dynamic Kelly)The indicator builds on top of the existing seasonality indicator in some simple, but powerful ways. It's invite only and only to followers. I don't ever charge for scripts but I want to grow my followers so I'm setting this to invite only to try and break 1000 followers. Believe it or not, this can be used as a drop in replacement for DCA, or used for options trading. The goal here get people away from the emotions involved in price based indicators and instead focus their attention on long term, risk adverse % returns... In other words, buy below the average % return or sell when its above the average return, in combination with technical indicators. Risk Management: Behind the hood, I use a modified Kelly Criterion that provides a mathematical approach to optimizing position sizes, but it requires careful consideration of probabilities and user risk tolerance. Misestimation of these factors can lead to increased risk. Users are encouraged to combine this tool with other risk management techniques to protect their capital. Seasonality Limitations: Past performance does not guarantee future results. The seasonal trends presented by this indicator are based on historical data and may not be predictive of future outcomes, especially in a highly volatile or unpredictable market environment. Tool Limitations: The Seasonal Investing indicator is best used as a supplementary analysis tool rather than as the sole basis for trading decisions. It is recommended to use it alongside other forms of technical and fundamental analysis. Position Sizing with Dynamic Kelly Criterion: This indicator calculates position sizes dynamically using the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Ratio is used to determine the optimal position size that aims to maximize returns while managing risk. The position size is then adjusted using the Adjusted Kelly Fraction, which takes into account user-defined risk preferences and broader economic conditions (e.g., a dovish or hawkish Fed stance). Users can input values for their capital available, risk tolerance, margin rate, and other parameters to tailor position sizes to their own requirements. Visual Representation Using Boxes: The indicator draws projection boxes on the chart to visually represent each month's expected performance. These boxes are color-coded to reflect the calculated average return and extend from the beginning to the end of the month. This visual feature allows users to easily spot seasonal patterns and assess the expected price movement for the current month. User Interface Settings: The indicator provides a variety of customizable settings: Table Position: Users can choose the position of the heatmap table (left, center, or right) to best fit their trading interface. Table Dimensions: Users can adjust the width and height of the table to control its appearance on the chart. Skipping Specific Months: Users can input specific months (e.g., YYYY-MM) to exclude from the analysis, allowing for greater flexibility if some months are deemed to have unreliable or anomalous data. Heatmap Metrics Toggle: Users can choose which metrics (average return, standard deviation, positive percentage, and position size) are displayed in the table. Dynamic Data Updates: The indicator's data updates dynamically as new data becomes available. This means traders are always working with the latest analysis, which is crucial for making informed decisions in a fast-paced trading environment. How to Use the Indicator Customize Inputs and Settings: Start by entering the starting year for analysis to define the historical range for evaluating seasonality. Set the available capital, risk tolerance, margin rate, and maintenance rate to tailor the position size calculation to your financial situation and risk appetite. Customize color settings for both positive and negative values to better visualize monthly trends. Review Seasonal Patterns: The heatmap and summary table will help you assess how different months have performed historically. Use the projection boxes on the chart to visualize the expected monthly price movement based on historical averages. Analyze Risk and Position Size: - Review the Position Size metric for each month to determine the appropriate amount of capital to allocate. The Adjusted Kelly Fraction helps to account for different market conditions (e.g., Fed stance) to ensure that position sizing is optimized in response to external factors. Ignore Specific Months if Necessary: If there are specific months that should not be included in the analysis, use the Ignored Months input to exclude them from the calculations. Make Data-Driven Decisions: By leveraging the average return, volatility (StDev), and positive return percentage, traders can identify which months are more likely to be favorable and adjust their trading strategy accordingly. The heatmap makes it easy to visualize trends, identify patterns, and determine which months are more reliable for trading. Important Notes Conclusion The Seasonal Investing Indicator offers a powerful combination of seasonality analysis and risk-based position sizing, making it a valuable addition to any trader's toolkit. By presenting information through an intuitive heatmap, detailed metrics, and dynamic position sizing, this indicator helps traders make data-driven decisions while managing risk in a disciplined manner. It provides a flexible, interactive interface that can be customized to fit individual needs, making it suitable for both novice and experienced traders.
SP:SPX
by livingdracula
1
XYO xyo "price return"The price of XYO has flipped over from a falling movement to a growing movement after being in a slump for a very long time; As some may already know from the blatantly obvious change in position for the price of XYO. The indicator proves this to be true rather than rely on the fact that the price increased through a slight spike in price last week and so on. The price reflects the death trap descend based on BTC falling in price at the same time that XYO was finally gaining in price. Typical of a scenario where a cryptocurrency does well and the BTC people have complete control over the system to collapse the price of minor tokens when they at long last increase in price thus shuttering the momentum and possibility for the smaller tokens to receive attention. Once the price suddenly collapses, as it did so when BTC fell in price, the momentum is broken and the trivial aspect of interest from outside investors reduces. Nevertheless, Solana does well, Polygon does well, Tron does well, practically every known cryptocurrency on the CoinGecko list of SEC coins/tokens does well over the long term except XYO, conspiracy,.
COINBASE:XYOUSD
by CryptocurrencyBlot
4 Year BTC Cycle - My Thoughts All forms of existence come in cycles. Everything cycles up and down. Everything is essentially a frequency. What do frequencies consist of; Top bands and low bands, or in other words, 'cycles'. Everything in the universe is composed of frequency, including bitcoin, and luckily we can calculate it through math; Through the fibonacci sequence. This is my prediction for this 2025 Bitcoin cycle. A potential top of ~175k (1.618 fib) or ~526k (2.36 fib) followed by a health retracement back down to its legacy trend line of ~75k. These targets are rough numbers, respectively. Let's see how it pans out.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by AverageNick
1
Is a Hang Seng Revival on the Horizon?The Hong Kong Index has faced challenging years since reaching its all-time high in 2018. The downtrend accelerated in 2021, bringing the index to a low of around 15,000. The subsequent reversal aligned neatly with horizontal resistance and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating that the bears were not finished yet. Indeed, 2023 also saw a continued downtrend. However, and this is crucial, the index did not make a new low. Instead, the decline halted at the strong 15,000 support level. In early 2024, a significant break above the falling trend line was observed at the end of April. The correction that followed confirmed the broken trend line, suggesting that this breakout is genuine and indicates a long-term shift in trend. September began with a higher low, followed by a powerful surge above the 20,000 level for the first time in over a year. This sequence of events suggests the potential beginning of a long-term bull trend, with the possibility of the index reclaiming the 23,000 level by 2025. For those looking to initiate a long-term buy position, there are two key levels to watch: 19,500, the former resistance level, and 18,500, which now serves as strong support.
HSI:HSILong
by Mihai_Iacob
10
BTC Beginning of the Month Downward VolatilityBYBIT:BTCUSDT Seems we typically experience some downward volatility in the first week of each month since June. I certainly have noticed a trend: July 4/5 bottom, Aug 5 bottom, Sep 6 bottom. Let's see what the rest of the week has in store for us. -- -- -- -- Using the 50 period on the 12H for the ROC it seems we could be near a local top which has shown some tops/ bottoms in the past during this range. The blue boxes represent the beginning week of the months. YOY global liquidity is on the rise due to China easing significantly.
by bhx10