June seasonality pivot approachingOne of my big technical analysis passions is time analysis and time cycles, and I tend to follow them closely. Some of these are very helpful when in combination with other TA, to find reversal points at any given time frame, even though I don't do intraday trading, so I focus on big swings, though bigger time frames.
Bitcoin's periodicity is remarkable, and we can generally find important pivots points during seasonality shifts. One of these season shifts occur in June and has been occurring for the last few years, marking the start of important swings. This seasonality shift is generally very powerful and has the power to mess with some other lower time frame cycles, such as the 60 day cycle, so at this specific time of the year we should expect some LTF cycle non-sense. This seasonality pivot is expected around mid June, so a lower low is expected around that time.
Around the seasonality pivot we can look for price targets with other techniques. Past 45º trendlines, and Elliot wave theory targets are some of my favourite ways to find support levels. As of now, my pivot projection lies at mid June within the 50-55k range. More accurate EW targets can be determined once the current high is confirmed.
Seasonality
Bitcoin tracking of the beast!By adding the arches for perspective makes similar to a bollinger band, bitcoin appears to be following a fractal pattern close to 2015 but stretched out over a longer time period. Cycles within cycles the micro forming the macro fractal. Observe the bar pattern simularities. Now it forms and finishes off its pattern with a the smoother climb up and out over time as seen with 2017's bull run.
$BTC Summer '24 rhymes with Summer '23 - despite FUD, NEWSQuick CRYPTOCAP:BTC price action on the weekly chart. Technically speaking, we're looking to set a local low. Fundamentally, we are suffering from FUD around Mt. GOX coins and other institutional holders, like Germany. It’s only a few days worth of aggregate volume but the specter of a dump is spooking the market and encouraging the bulls to wait.
To me, despite all the news, we look very similar to the March-October period of last year, where it took 3 attempts and establishing 25K as floor price, before finally breaking through the strategic $30k level. This summer, we're likely to see a similar movement play out, establishing $50k as a floor before ultimately breaking above the strategic price of $70k. Perhaps in an inverse head and shoulders fashion.
Update Tesla stock after profit takingWith this idea, we can easily see the confirmation for a breakout in the weekly frame, which is usually true when the price has passed through the boundary of the second butterfly wing according to this butterfly pattern.
In addition, I have a profit taking level according to this model combined with a 4-year cycle.
Good lucky.!!
Update plan with TeslaUpdate plan with Tesla
Tesla stock has touched the daily line which is good support, however you need to consider taking partial profits when the price hits the price holding zone that is eventually broken down which is also the horizontal resistance level. In case the price continues to break out of that horizontal range, we will continue to hold the order. On the contrary, if the price does not break through, we wait to buy in the demand area 128-122 and hold the order until the end of June and the end of July.
Good lucky !!!
$BTC Summer Gets Decided in the Next 30 Minutes!Bitcoin Bulls have 30 minutes til the Weekly close
Closing below the bullish trendline confirms the 10% downwards move to retest $50,5
RSI shows room for more downward pressure ahead w/ the close below the Bull Market Support Band
If $50,5 doesn’t hold, it will be a 20% dump to retest $45k
Or 30% to $38,5
As mentioned prior,
CRYPTOCAP:BTC will range these levels til September.
NOW is the time to allocate accordingly.
A new Crypto Bullmarket HAS already started.... When talking about Bitcoin or Crypto in general you usually will hear something like this from Traders/Investors that are bullish on Bitcoin: The Bitcoin halving every 4 years initiates a new bull market. By that logic a new Crypto bullmarket should start in late April of 2024, when the next halving is due, right? However, if I look at the price behaviour of Bitcoin prior to its last 2 halvings (2016 and 2020) I can clearly see that the actual bull market started 18 months prior to those halvings. Projecting this to the 2024 Bitcoin halving it would mean that a new bull market HAS already started as the markets bottom should have been end of October 2022 at around 18-20k... yes, we went still lower than that thanks to FTX, but up to now this theory still passes the test of time.
Another thing that, in my opinion, is aligning up perfectly: The FED interest rate cycle.... after now having higher interest rates (5.25 %) than the YoY US inflation (4.9 %) we should see interest rates staying stable (maybe there is 1 more hike coming in June 2023).... looking back in history after about 8-15 months the FED usually started lowering the interest rates again, which then initiated a shift from risk off assets to risk on assets (stocks & crypto). The shift back to a cycle of lowering interest rates will fall nicely together with the Bitcoin halving of 2024 and will probably fuel the bull market additionally.
Update plan gold nonfarm and in JulyIt is forecasted that there will soon be a bullish phase when all signals break for the uptrend. In my opinion, that is a bullish trap.
Please stick to the sell-off scenarios according to the price arrow I draw, every scenario has a stop loss level, don't expect too much from forcing and letting loose stop loss orders in this non-agricultural news for orders. buy. According to my experience, today or before news of gold release, there will be a strong sale, good luck to traders.
Please see updates for other ideas as well.
Bitcoin establishes new support level around previous ATH closeMany people have been losing sleep over the Bitcoin price action so I wanted to provide some technical analysis to show where we're possibly headed. I have a theory with data to back it up. If history repeats itself I believe Bitcoin has established a new baseline support level around $55k.
If you take a look at the Bitcoin chart on an 8-week time interval going all the way back to 2015, you can see every new all time high has a similar period of around 3 years of retracing back to the same level, before breaking through it again. Then after breaking the previous all time high, a new support level is established and price doesn't drop below the newly established support level. On this 8-week chart the previous all time high candle didn't close above $55k in August 2021. So, we have had almost 3 years of retracing back to this level and finally broke through it in Feb 2024. If my theory is true and history repeats itself, I don't believe we will see Bitcoin fall below $55k as this has become the new baseline support level.
*Of course, I could be wrong. Just a theory, not financial advice.
BITCOIN targets, rally, bottom and top perdition for 2024Every July 4th I put out price predictions of BTC, where we are, where we will go, rallies we will have along with bottoms and tops. I use fib levels + order books + Political agenda + social response with human behavior that is way too easy to predict. For you who follow me, you have seen my accuracy and as I said 50k was always in play, I now move that to 40k-45k for a bottom and a Jan-Feb top of 85K-90K and I do think that's the bull run top. Something big must happen to change my mind on that, so far all the big 100k+ numbers are just dreams, Nothing backs it up. Market and interest in crypto are still not where they need to be for me to justify over 100K, but as I said, something big would and could happen to make that come true. I'm just not willing to put my money on it yet. I'm not paid or influenced by corporations or anyone to say all that pump talk you see on social media platforms including Trading View. Yes, we are in a bull market, yes we are finishing the 1st of 2 waves for the bull run, and yes we will go back up and top in 1st Qrt 2025, yes that will be the start of the bear market. And yes We can go lower than 40k and yes I could be wrong, but I bet I'm not. Do your homework and research. I don't trust others with my wealth and neither should you. Happy Independence Day USA.
BTC: New Short-term bullish channelLong-term Fibo channel is clear here!
There might be a reversal
Regarding the mid-term channel a bearish trendline is broken
A new short-term channel which is tradable could be formed.
Short-term traders could take profit around the zone. But I think we should hold out cryptos till January.
read the related ideas see my reasons for that
XRP/USD Main trendMain trend. Logarithmic chart. Timeframe 1 month. Channel. Triangle.
This time frame to understand the direction of the trend and where the area to trade is now.
Found the chart with the longest trading history, which displays the main trend.
Coinmarketcap: XRP
Same parameters, but on a line chart.
CONY - Buy/Hold/DCA through Crypto Bull Cycle - 100%+ dividendI continue to load up on shares whenever we get into the buy zones. I also hold COIN. Both are holds for me through the BULL Crypto Cycle. IMO CONY reaches and exceeds all time high during this period. Dividends of 100%+ paid monthly are crazy good. As long as you keep your cost basis to prices down in these buy zones you shouldn't see any NAV erosion. (IMO).
The Duration of the Current Bitcoin Bull CycleHow Much Longer Will the Good Times Last?
In this chart, I highlighted 3 different cyclic frameworks.
The dynamic time cycle which is shown as "grey/blue zigzag" extended into the future. It is a 186 day cycle pattern which was observed at any past parabolic move since 2010 in Bitcoin. It needs 5 repetitions in order to complete a parabolic up move. Count 5 is to be expected to arrive summer next year. I also marked the "static" view for that cycle with blue circle arcs at the bottom. The red is the nominal (average) 200days cycle.
I added the seasonality cycles for Bitcoin at the top of the chart, highlighted with colored areas. The simple seasonality is always a bullish yearly start into May/June, follows by a flat June and bearish July-September pattern. Then bullish from October into end of the year.
The bitcoin halving cycle impact is also shown with the pinkish vertical lines. The last one happened April 2024. During the first 100days period after the halving, there is no impact to be expected. But analyzing past halving cycles, there has always been a big-up-excess around 400days after the halving.
Interestingly, all these 3 cyclic pattern are in alignment for the period October 2024 into May 2025 with a common bullish outlook. So we might get a flat to challenging summer 2024. But afterwards the cycle seem to vote for a continuation of the current bull cycle.
At the bottom, I added my preferred cyclic-tuned dynamic cyclic RSI indicator. Which I have made public for everyone. ("cRSI")
I presented more details on this analysis in my personal blog.
Bitcoin Hidden Bullish Divergence Post Halving: Hold or BuyThe Bitcoin halvening puts the price action of bitcoin on a four year cycle that so far has resulted in a higher high each cycle. Until that changes the best money to be made is by incorporation that periodicity into your trading plan and figuring out when to buy, sell, and hold.
In a bull market you are suppose to "buy the dip, and sell the rip." But not all dips are equal, a nd one thing that sets dips apart is divergence.
Divergence Primer
Normal Divergence (Trend Reversal)
Bearish: Higher highs on price action but lower highs on the indicator
Bullish: Lower lows on price action but higher lows on the indicator
Hidden (Trend Continuation)
Bearish: Lower high on the price action and higher highs on the indicator
Bullish: Higher low on the price action and a lower low on the indicator
We clearly see that we have some hidden bullish divergence. We can also clearly see that the RSI is "oversold" just 65 days after the bitcoin halvening. Historically this is a great time to buy.
A look at the 2016-2017 bull market shows buying hidden bullish divergence and/or when the RSI got to over-sold on the daily chart was a outstandingly simple but profitable time to put in some buys. Those price levels were NEVER reached again on a retrace.
Without exaggeration and irony after this pull back bitcoin may never return to this price again, give or take a day or so for a base to be put in. At this point, the only reason I can see to sell bitcoin is to buy alts that look good or because you have some bills that you must needs pay to remain solvent. But of course, I am not a financial advisor and even if I was, I am not your financial advisor.
My best call in a long time has been my FTM trade. FTMBTC recently itself just had the RSI go to over-sold and it looks like price action is turning previous wedge resistance into support. I have currently moved up the risk curve and am in a small cap coin that is out of the top 100 in market cap. So far its been painful but in the long run I think the rotation will pay off.
Elliot Wave 3-4 : FINAL Correction before NEW ATHI've been watching this bearish M-Pattern for some time, and I still believe this is a multi-month playout towards a new ATH:
This lines up with my initial correction target using Elliot Wave Theory:
We see a very clear Double Top play out in the Total Chart, also indicating that it's time for a correction:
HOWEVER - I expect the bulls to be ready and sweep in lower prices when the right support zone is reach (whale zone), which seems likely to be in the 40k zone. It won't be a straight line down - again, a multi-month playout is likely.
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CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Solana - TREND Indicators BEARISHUsing a Technical Indicator here which I use mainly to determine trend swings from a macro perspective. At least for the short term, SOL is bearish.
We've lost a long standing trendline that has held since October 2023, which is around the time that the bullseason started.
This will all largely depend on what BITCOIN does in the short term - more info on that HERE:
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COINBASE:SOLUSD
Should we buy PYR dip?PYR is at the best buying levels.
●Pyr is trading inside the Weekly FVG/BISI.
●We are in the Bull market so buying the dip make sense here.
●I know altscoins are down too much but remember these same altcoins will give 20×, 30× even 50× return in the peak bull market.
●Buy PYR here will give easy money.
●Pyr should never lose this fvg.
●In daily timeframe PYR created the Bullish divergence so its getting ready to pump.
NOTCOIN📊Analysis by AhmadArz: notcoin
In this technical analysis chart for the new token NOT/USDT, the price movement is clearly outlined. Currently, the token is priced around $0.007919 📉 and is trending upwards within the blue channel 🔵📈.
Key resistance levels are identified at $0.008822, $0.009911, and $0.011448 🔒. The analyst suggests waiting for the price to break above the $0.0114 level to anticipate another potential pump 🚀.
Additionally, a crucial support zone is marked between approximately $0.004800 and $0.005100 🛡️. If the price reaches this area, it could be considered a good buying opportunity 📈💰.
Overall, if the price can break through the mentioned resistance levels, there is potential for further increases. However, if it falls below the ascending channel and enters the lower support zone, caution is advised ⚠️.
🔗"Uncover new opportunities in the world of cryptocurrencies with AhmadArz.
💡Join us on TradingView and expand your investment knowledge with our five years of experience in financial markets."
🚀Please boost and💬 comment to share your thoughts with us!
*SMC* AUDUSD Top-Down Analysis ICT
Firstly, on the weekly TF , since April, the market showed a willing to climb to the FVG made in December 2023. We currently are in a premium relative to the low made in April to the high made in May. The Market could come all the way down to equilibrium and in a discount level but I would favor not going bellow the Breaker (which is the green box), in other words, staying above 0.65160. I would favor this option at the moment because the body of the weekly candle respected respected the body of the Breaker.
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Now let's go down to the Daily TF
As we can see, there is sellside liquidity at 0.65580 which I suspect we could see it being swept next week however, with my expectation of the DXY dropping eventually, I do not intend to take any short next week. ''Oh but I need to take a trade now!'' Okay, I understand completely, but sometimes we need to sit back and wait, and if I missed a trade so what? Most trader are unprofitable because of overtrading. Just bellow this level we have the Weekly FVG which overlay perfectly with a Daily FVG. Now, something I noticed is how the body of the OrderBlock made the April 12 correspond with the Equilibrium, which could become a strong PDArrays if the aussie dollar ever come to go lower than my expectation. Also, we can see that the MeanThreshold of the Daily OrderBlock of April 30, overlay perfectly with the low of the Weekly Breaker, adding confluence on why the price shouldn't go bellow the Breaker.
To sum up, The 0.67141 Level is very where my focus is rn, the price could (and most likely will) go bellow last week low taking out Sellside Liquidity, but I do not intend to take any short this week, if I do, I will probably split my risk in two. Tuesday we have ''Retail Sales m/m'' in the morning and later ''RBA Rate Statement'' which should bring a lot of volatility.
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Now let's take a look of the Fundamental of the Aussie, which is mostly relevent for the Weekly chart:
Fundamentally, the Australian dollars remains strong , with higher inflation than expected since April:
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May 28, 2024 3.6% 3.4% 3.5%
Apr 23, 2024 3.5% 3.4% 3.4%
Mar 26, 2024 3.4% 3.5% 3.4%
Feb 27, 2024 3.4% 3.6% 3.4%
Jan 30, 2024 3.4% 3.7% 4.3%
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Also, Australia is a commodity pair , meaning that the Futures Chart is correlated with commodities such as Gold, Silver.
Furthermore, with China demands for metals increasing it helps the AUD to gain value, as it exports lot of metals.
In addition, Seasonal tendency of the Australian Dollar is showing a bit of weakness during June before gaining strength in July.
As some of you saw my previous expectation for the DXY, the AUDUSD should respect the same idea in the direction of the market.
Here is the seasonality chart of the Australian Dollar Futures Seasonality:
www.google.com
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