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13 Oct Levels I am watchingChart refreshed after today's price action. Dashed orange is the 50% line of yesterdays move, denoting premium and discount. Black heavy lines are yesterday's H/L It is yet to be seen if the final October low is in. It is possible to have slightly more expansion, with a deeper retracement beginning next week or we could retrace tomorrow for a new lower low. For intraday trading this does not matter as much. keep your eyes on strong points of interest such as weekly and daily FVG's, previous Days H/L As always, we trade during specific times only. happy trading! have a great weekend!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by The_Lioness
Bitcoin on the Verge of a New Bull Market? Bitcoin vs Gold.Introduction: This year's Bitcoin Amsterdam event was noticeably quieter than the previous edition, potentially indicating an upcoming bull market. Let's explore the current status of Bitcoin and its comparison with gold. Visitor Numbers and Market Sentiment: This year, the attendance at Bitcoin Amsterdam was significantly lower than the previous year when it focused on Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). Governments seem to no longer consider Bitcoin a problem, as long as it remains on the fringes of the financial system. What is evident this year is that Bitcoin is still a niche and not a mass movement in the crypto world. The current market is characterized by tepid interest and tranquility. Is a New Bull Market Imminent? The lack of interest and market calm may, however, suggest an upcoming bull market. Such periods of subdued activity often precede significant price movements. While the chart appears promising, the sentiment has not fully aligned yet, but this is a characteristic of market bottoms. The Importance of Market Cycles: The significance of market cycles is emphasized, with the idea that high interest typically occurs at the peak of hype, signaling a need to consider selling. The current phase of relative calm in the Bitcoin market is considered healthy, as markets require cooling-off periods and corrections. Bitcoin and Gold: A Comparison: In 2014, Bitcoin was already dubbed 'digital gold,' and similarities in price patterns are highlighted between gold and Bitcoin in response to a growing money supply. Both serve as hedges against inflation and retain their value in monetary terms. The Future of Bitcoin and Gold: There is no expectation that Bitcoin will quickly surpass gold. Gold serves as insurance for the financial system, while Bitcoin serves more as a speculative instrument to position outside the traditional monetary system. Conclusion: Bitcoin exhibits indications of an impending bull market, while gold maintains its solid status as financial 'insurance.' While gold retains its established position, Bitcoin may have a promising future, with an increasingly prominent role in the global financial landscape.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptoSnagger
Bitcoin and Elections 👀You say "What do they have in common"?🤔 At a minimum, Bitcoin and elections have a similar 4-year cycle. From past posts, we know that the stock market is quite often correlated with CRYPTOCAP:BTC , with some minor exceptions. 💡Also, the correlation between the SP500 and the election cycle is already well-studied. The tendency is that towards the end of the term, you always want to show the economy from the best side. There may be an injection of liquidity. Conclusion. If this trend continues, we can expect that in 2024 Bitcoin will have a fairly positive year.↗️
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by FeelsStrategy
Trend reversal to the UPSIDE if Nq! Holds 100 EMA on DailyLooking at today's Bounce with high Volume, the Nasdaq futures have again reclaimed 100 EMA on the daily timeframe. There is a very high probability that Nasdaq Futures will go higher in coming days and test 50 day EMA. If it closes above 14,809 tomorrow, then this is the trend reversal and we are again in the bullish trend. Keep an eye on the 100 EMA, if it looses then there will be a lot of selling to the short side. As of now we are very bullish in coming days till Friday. And then we can analyze the closing of the week.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by TradesByAdvait
Uptober is here: what it means for Bitcoin and the crypto marketAs October arrives, crypto enthusiasts and traders are gearing up for what has affectionately become known as "Uptober." Historically, October has proven to be a pivotal month for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, with significant price movements and market-shaping events. In this article, we'll explore the historical context of Uptober, examine potential factors that could influence Bitcoin and the crypto market this month, and provide insights to help you navigate this exciting period. Historical Significance of October in Crypto: October holds a special place in the hearts of crypto enthusiasts due to several notable events that have occurred in this month over the years. One of the most iconic moments is the mysterious launch of the Bitcoin whitepaper by Satoshi Nakamoto on October 31, 2008. This event marked the beginning of the revolutionary blockchain technology that underpins cryptocurrencies. Additionally, Bitcoin has experienced significant price movements during previous Octobers. Notably, in October 2017, Bitcoin's price surged to an all-time high of nearly $20,000, sparking a frenzy of interest and investment in the cryptocurrency. This bull run was followed by a market correction, but it cemented October as a month to watch for crypto traders. Factors Influencing Uptober 2023: While historical data provides intriguing insights, it's crucial to consider the current landscape and potential catalysts for Uptober 2023. Here are some factors that could influence Bitcoin and the crypto market this month: Institutional Adoption: The continued involvement of institutional investors and large corporations in the crypto space is expected to play a significant role in market dynamics. Positive news regarding institutional adoption, such as more companies adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, could boost confidence in the market. Regulatory Developments: Regulatory actions and statements from governments around the world can have a substantial impact on crypto markets. Traders will closely monitor any regulatory news that may provide clarity or uncertainty regarding the legality and oversight of cryptocurrencies. Market Sentiment: Crypto markets are highly sensitive to investor sentiment. Positive sentiment can lead to FOMO (fear of missing out) buying, while negative sentiment can trigger panic selling. Events like conferences, major announcements, or celebrity endorsements can influence market sentiment. Global Economic Conditions: Broader economic conditions, including inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions, can drive interest in cryptocurrencies as a hedge against traditional financial uncertainties. Bitcoin, often dubbed "digital gold," tends to perform well in such environments. Navigating Uptober: As Uptober unfolds, it's essential to approach the market with a clear strategy and risk management plan. Here are some tips for navigating this exciting yet volatile period: Diversify Your Portfolio: Avoid putting all your investments into a single cryptocurrency. Diversification can help spread risk. Stay Informed: Keep a close eye on news and developments in the crypto space. Information is key to making informed decisions. Set Realistic Goals: Define your investment goals and risk tolerance. Avoid chasing quick profits and be prepared for market fluctuations. Use Technical Analysis: Consider using technical analysis tools and indicators to make informed trading decisions. Stay Calm: Emotions can lead to impulsive decisions. Stick to your trading plan and avoid making decisions based on fear or greed. In conclusion, Uptober is an exciting time for the crypto market, filled with opportunities and challenges. By staying informed, adopting a strategic approach, and managing risk, traders and investors can make the most of this pivotal month in the world of cryptocurrencies. Whether you're a seasoned trader or a newcomer, October promises to be a captivating chapter in the ongoing crypto narrative.
Long
by AutomatedTradingAlgorithms
Navigating Rocky Oct After a Crushing Sept in US EquitiesSeasonality is pervasive in financial markets. Some are benign while others are not. The “September Effect” refers to a month when equity returns gets crushed. Typically, this is followed by a volatile October. Other well-established pattern in equity markets is the "Santa Claus Rally" which is known to occur during December. Equities go bullish with increased optimism, holiday spending, and portfolio rebalancing before the end of the year. Then, there is also the "January Effect" where small-caps tend to outperform large-caps in the early part of the year. Essential to remember that historical trends do not guarantee future performance. This paper delves into the September Effect followed by the volatility which tends to be witnessed during the month of October. Portfolio managers can prudently position their portfolios to gain from rising volatility and sharp price moves in October and the rest of the final quarter. WHAT EXPLAINS POOR EQUITY RETURNS IN SEPTEMBER? There is no exact rationale explaining why September is historically the worst month of the year for equities. Over the last 94 years, September is the only individual month that has declined at least 50% of the time. Scott Bauer, CEO of Prosper Trading Academy surmises in an opinion note that three drivers plausibly explains this: 1. Post Summer Vacation: In the lead up to summer in Europe, average trading volumes grind lower resulting in lower volatility from June to August. When portfolio managers and investors return in September, their collective rebalancing of portfolios cause panicked exits as they create space for new holdings. This mass-exodus of selling shares pushes prices lower making September the worst month for stocks. 2. Year-end for Mutual Funds: Many mutual funds close their fiscal year in September. These funds purge their portfolios during this ill-fated month. 3. New Bond Issuances: Like equity trading activity, bond issuances ease during summer and return with vengeance and spikes in September. New issuances channel existing money into bonds forcing investors to rotate out of equities and into bonds. SEPTEMBER US EQUITY MARKET PERFORMANCE IN THIS MILLENNIUM Does the September effect prevail in the current millennium? Since start of 2000, September indeed is the worst month for S&P 500 stocks with average returns of -1.8%. Surprisingly, the months with the highest occurrence of negative returns is not September but January. Over the last 23 years, January had 13 months of negative returns. June along with September rank second with 12 occurrences of negative returns during the same period. The chart below summarises average monthly returns of S&P 500 index. Clearly, on average, September stands out as a poor performer while April is the best . Interestingly, the S&P 500 shares tend to deliver positive returns with average upside performance of 3.22% in the fourth and final quarter of the year. Likewise for Nasdaq 100, the September Effect is even more pronounced with index plunging 2.61% on average. Unlike S&P 500, February (14 of 23) has the highest number of months with occurrence of negative returns. The month with the second highest occurrences of negative returns are September, June, and December with 12 of 23 years marking a negative return. The chart below summarises average monthly returns on the Nasdaq 100 index. While September crushes Nasdaq stocks, October is the best month thus far this millennium. October and November deliver positive returns with a pullback in December. On average, Nasdaq 100 upside performance stands at +2.44% in the fourth quarter. A CRUSHING SEPTEMBER IS FOLLOWED BY A ROCKY OCTOBER While September is the king of worst month for stock returns, October claims the crown for being the most volatile. Over the last 23 years, the S&P 500 equity returns show the largest exaggeration in October. Range as used below is defined as the high minus the low of the month and then expressed as a percentage as month’s opening level. Analysis shows that equity returns move by 9.1% in October compared to 6.9% on average for the rest of the months in the year. Similarly, observations in Nasdaq-100 also point to exaggerated range of returns during the month of October. Range in Nasdaq monthly returns stand at 11% in October compared to 9.2% on average for the rest of the months in the year. Based on expected returns and volatility, investors in S&P 500 can expect large swings in returns in October as evident from the chart below. Likewise, Nasdaq 100 investors can expect large swings in October returns based on observations over the last 23 years. OUTLOOK FOR FINAL QUARTER OF 2023 Twenty-three years of historical observations point to a positive upward bias in equity returns for the last three months of the year. This time however, the outlook going into the final quarter is beset with head winds. Not one but five of them approaching in parallel. Risk lurks in many places. Strong dollar. Oil skirting near $100/barrel. Resumption of student loan repayments. Record high mortgage rates driven by higher for longer policy stance. Automotive workers striking at multiple plants potentially leading to higher labour costs and automotive inflation. Dollar is trading at 10-month highs. The US 30-year mortgage rates at record high levels unseen in 23-years. The 10-year US yield are at levels last observed during 2007. Gathering of these dark clouds are starting to show up in the University of Michigan’s US Consumer Confidence index. Since June, American exceptionalism boosted the index to 71.73 clocking a 52-week high. However, with a raft of concerns weighing on the consumers, the index has started to drop the last two months. HARVESTING VOLATILITY EXPANSION USING CME MICRO OPTIONS ON S&P 500 AND NASDAQ 100 INDEX In times of uncertainty, where seasonality leans towards a bullish rally but fundamentals signal a bearish grind, portfolio managers can position to gain from volatility expansion and sharp index moves in either direction. Options can be used to engineer a convex portfolio. Convexity in finance refers to portfolio strategies which enjoy outsized and solid gains while limiting downside risks. Convex strategies deliver non-linear returns with substantially higher gain for every unit of pain. LONG STRADDLE USING OPTIONS ON CME MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 FUTURES Long straddles involve holding a simultaneous long call and long put position at the same strike price for the same expiration period. Let’s look at a hypothetic long straddle using Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Options expiring on 29th December 2023 at a strike price of 4400. The straddle pay-off is visualised in the chart below. This trade will generate positive returns when (a) index rises above 4655, or (b) index falls below 4145, or (c) volatility expands . The premium required for this trade (as of 2nd October 2023): (Premium for Call Option + Premium for Put Option) = (USD 631.7 + USD 636.65) = USD 1268.35. If index rises 10% to 4840: Call option would pay out ~USD 1568 = ((4840 – 4400) x 5 – Premium for Call Option) = (440 x 5 – 126.34) while the put option would expire worthless, so, net profit would be: (Net PnL from Call leg – Net PnL from Put Leg) = (1568 – 636.65) = ~USD 932 By the same measure, the long straddle will suffer losses if the index remains flat or its moves are muted. It also loses money if volatility remains flat or contracts. If index remains at 4400: Both options would expire worthless, so, the position would lead to a net loss of the premium paid = Loss of USD 1268.35. LONG STRADDLE USING OPTIONS ON MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 FUTURES Let’s look at another hypothetic long straddle using Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 options expiring on 29th December 2023 at a strike price of 15250. The straddle pay-off is visualised in the chart below. This trade will generate positive returns when (a) index rises above 16416, or (b) index falls below 14084, or (c) volatility expands. The long straddle will endure losses if the index remains flat or its moves within a narrow range. It will also lose if volatility remains flat or shrinks. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Editors' picks
CME_MINI:MES1!
by mintdotfinance
12
SOL/USD Main trend. Cycles.Solana Super Hype. The main (long-term) trend. Timeframe 1 week. Logarithmic chart. Coin of the famous “hedge fund” Alameda-research. Despite the useful applications and development of various applications on this blockchain, the asset (coin) itself is in fantastic profits. Be careful when trading and follow risk management. This is the basis of profits. This clamp zone, is also an uptrend confirmation zone (the trend line is green) and at the same time acts as a huge head and shoulders neck zone. Coin Market: Solana line chart . A secondary downtrend (its resistance is the red line) has been developing since the peak of the price swing, at $250 per coin (the main volume is $0.10, the chart can't display that. The Doge is smoking in the sidelines). The minimum price decline is -90%. Every secondary trend is crazy pumping, just like LUNA was at one time.
BINANCE:SOLUSD
by SpartaBTC
34
Please forgive me because this market is not for the majority toWhen everything passes I will explain how I bought gold at 1860 - Reason 1: I observed in recent years, in the last week of the third quarter, which is the last days of September. Gold bottomed out - Reason 2: On September 28, 2022, Gold reached the bottom. The coincidence here is that yesterday was also September 28, exactly one year. And this year is temporarily like that because it reacted quite well to 17 prices and there was information today, September 29, 2023, that the US announced preparations for the possibility of a government shutdown. - Reason 3: Regarding the Ichimoku cloud in the weekly frame, the price returns immediately like a cloud, plus with a thick cloud shape like this, it is a very good support area to push the price of Gold up. My job now is to set the stop loss to the entry point and wait. If everything goes well and luckily for me, by the end of the third quarter of next year I will hit the take profit point of 2405. As for your business, if you find the above reasons convincing enough, maybe Fomo will let me trade :)) I don't have any signal groups, I want to store all my investment trading activities here so I can review them later to have memories of my investment process.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by EricGoldHunter
US100 | Market outlooknvestors focus on the actions of the US Federal Reserve in the face of a significant decline in inflation, cooling of the labor market, and instability of the banking sector. Thus, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that after the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last month, conditions for access to credit could tighten, which would put pressure on the economy but save the regulator from the need to further increase interest rates. The official also noted that the current economic sanctions against Russia and several other countries may carry risks for the dollar as a world reserve currency if an alternative is found for it. Possible move towards 15154 - 15967.
ULong
by DCFX-TA
4
How to Altseason Cycle || Cheat Sheet || Bitcoin DominanceMonitoring Bitcoin dominance (BTC-DOM) is a valuable tool for crypto traders. It provides insights into the relationship between Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and altcoins (ALT-USD), helping you make bette decisions about your altcoins and tokens. Spotting Altcoin Seasons: Altcoin seasons are periods of heightened interest in different cryptocurrencies and tokens, often causing their total market cap to surpass that of Bitcoin. Understanding BTC-DOM's movements can help you anticipate how the market might react: 1. BTC-DOM Goes UP: When BTC-DOM rises and BTC-USD also climbs, it often indicates a bullish phase for Bitcoin. During this time, ALT-USD may stay relative stable and face sideways. If BTC-USD experiences a decline while BTC-DOM is on the upswing, ALT-USD might witness a significant dump. When BTC-USD moves sideways and BTC-DOM follows suit, ALT-USD tends to maintain a stable course. 2. BTC-DOM Goes SIDEWAYS: If BTC-DOM remains relatively stable and BTC-USD sees an uptrend, ALT-USD often mirrors this upward movement. Conversely, if BTC-USD takes a dip while BTC-DOM remains flat, ALT-USD tends to follow suit with a decline. When both BTC-USD and BTC-DOM exhibit sideways patterns, ALT-USD typically remains in a state of relative stability. 3. BTC-DOM Goes DOWN: A decrease in BTC-DOM coupled with a rising BTC-USD often leads to a pumps for ALT-USD. When BTC-USD experiences a decrease while BTC-DOM falls, ALT-USD may stabilize or enter a sideways phase. If BTC-USD moves sideways while BTC-DOM declines, ALT-USD often witnesses an upward movement. Remember that while these trends offer valuable insights, the crypto market is highly volatile. Low cap altcoins can behave unexpectedly even when Bitcoin dominance suggests a particular trend. Therefore, use Bitcoin dominance as one of many tools in your investment strategy, and always conduct thorough research before making decisions.
Editors' picks
by Vestinda
14