Innovation boosts P/E ratios - P/E ration evolvesTechnological Innovation is Compounding
Technological progress has huge impact on the P/E ratios of companies and the S&P 500. Technologically advanced companies naturally have a higher P/E as it's expected from them to have better future earnings. One of the ways better future earnings happen is through efficiency leaps. These efficiency leaps are important to businesses' margins but it all comes down to:
better tech = more efficiency = lower costs = higher earnings = higher P/E
These innovation cycles bring efficiency leaps that are linked to P/E ratio waves.
We can observe in this chart that the P/E ratio has cycles that coincide with innovation cycles. There were, of course, macroeconomic factors and wars that impacted the P/E, but high P/E can be explained by innovation cycles.
We can also see that each innovation cycle will have higher P/E ratios than the previous. By looking at this chart, it feels that the P/E ratios still have room to grow.
Seasonality
Updat Gold close weekly candleUpdate Gold close weekly candle
Gold is about to go through the end of the H4 down wave, when it reaches 1908 it will end the H4 down wave, and we buy small volume to bring gold back to the price balance with a bullish wave on the H1 time frame.
Today there is PPI news, in my opinion, Gold sweeps the peak 24-26 then collapses to 1908, and it will be pulled up to withdraw the weekly candle.
This idea I update will agree with the idea below, if everything goes well, Gold price goes up 1936-40 we sell off to 1867-1952
GBPUSD - for the month of AUGUSTGet Ready for pound to take a shit throughout AUGUST...
The Launch happened today........
The sentiment is mixed, but the commercials are loading up according to latest COT report,
Also if you have a look at Seasonality AUGUST historically is the worst month for anything against the dollar...
INFLATION INCOMING - Real world implications (Oranges)Orange Juice is a clean way to define a couple of key things:
-- Weather forecasts
-- Inflation
-- Supply shocks
-- Global trade
Recently, I've taken note that OJ futures have skyrocketed more than 200% in the last 3 years. I was so surprised in fact, I had to look at it versus other commodities, which have seen a mild bounce (Wheat, Oats). And bigger spikes (Pork, Chicken) during the supply shocks of the pandemic.
But OJ keeps bucking the trend! Is this the REAL effect of inflation?
INFLATION is coming (Real consumer costs) Orange Juice is a clean way to define a couple of key things:
-- Weather forecasts
-- Inflation
-- Supply shocks
-- Global trade
Recently, I've taken note that OJ futures have skyrocketed more than 200% in the last 3 years. I was so surprised in fact, I had to look at it versus other commodities, which have seen a mild bounce (Wheat, Oats). And bigger spikes (Pork, Chicken) during the supply shocks of the pandemic.
But OJ keeps bucking the trend! Is this the REAL effect of inflation?
Gold Breaks Out of Triangle Pattern, Targets $1,850Gold has been trading in a symmetrical triangle pattern since June, consolidating between lower highs and higher lows. The pattern suggests a period of indecision and uncertainty, but also implies a potential breakout in either direction.
On August 9, gold finally broke out of the triangle to the upside, closing above the upper trendline and the 50-day moving average. The breakout was confirmed by a surge in volume and a bullish crossover of the MACD indicator.
The triangle breakout signals a continuation of the previous uptrend that started in March, when gold bottomed at $1,677. The measured move of the triangle projects a target of $1,850, which is also near the 200-day moving average and the resistance level from May.
The breakout also coincides with a weaker US dollar, as the market anticipates a lower-than-expected CPI inflation report for July. A lower CPI would ease the pressure on the Fed to taper its stimulus, which would benefit gold as a hedge against currency devaluation.
Therefore, I expect gold to continue its rally towards $1,850 in the coming weeks, as long as it stays above the triangle support and the 50-day moving average. A break below these levels would invalidate the bullish scenario and suggest a false breakout.
My Transaction HistoryAt the beginning of July, I bought and held 2 Gold orders like the long-term idea below.
I have liquidated 1 order. And sell off Gold according to the idea below with the hope that gold creates a wedge on the daily frame, which is a necessary condition for Gold to go up in the long term.
My sell-off order moved my stop loss to a tie. Avoid the case of Gold going up, of course I will not liquidate this sell order soon when the price has not reached 1900-1890.
And when Gold price fills the lower wedge, I will Buy more and this time hold for a long time.
DCA opportunity of a lifetime?After the disappointments from the Iphone sales, again. We might have just stepped into prices we could never see again in years to come.
Because of these strong levels, and a boring year and a half with no major breakouts. we might see some DCA opportunities arise under the recent trend line breakout that seems to indicate a weaker long term bullish trend in the next few months.
The Fibonacci-golden-pockets usually gives strong levels to enter long positions if the rallies ever where to push the price so deep.
Short term, there looks to be a lot of demand in this current price, and the price will probably attempt a retest towards the recent breakout level. Beyond this short-term time horizon, Apple might be able to maintain its strength and continue the bullish phase it has experienced so far this year.
Italy - 3rd Largest Economy in the EUItaly 40 Index - CAPITALCOM:IT40
Made up of 40 of the largest companies in the Italian equity market the Borsa Italiana , the IT40 gives us an idea of how the 3rd largest economy in Europe is performing.
The Chart
- 22 month cycles
- 22 months increasing and then decreasing
- Based on the pattern we are reaching the end of a 22 month period where price is typically up to 30% lower from current level.
- A bearish engulfing monthly candle appears to be forming here. If we close this month with a bearish engulfing candle, history would suggest significant down side will follow.
- We have not lost the 10 month moving average yet which typically offers confirmation of further decline.
Past patterns are no guarantee of a continuation of future patterns however we can watch out for the continuation.
Confirmation signals of significant downside which would be;
- Bearish Engulfing Monthly Candle (end of Aug)
- Losing the 10 month moving average
- In the event of same decline time window once in motion would be Aug - Nov 2023 (based on pattern)
Lets see what happens.
PUKA
ISM New Orders vs Consumer SentimentISM New Orders Vs Michigan Consumer Sentiment index
ISM New orders provide an indication of current consumer demand. Utilising a chart of New Orders readings we can attempt to understand the trend of consumer demand forward. ISM New Orders could be considered an additional gauge of consumer sentiment because if businesses are reporting increases in orders month over month, this demonstrates consumers have the consistently had the resources and the desire to spend. If this continues over months a trend can form and we can capture this direction on a chart. To support the ISM predictive argument I include a chart that illustrates a correlation between the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, the latter of which is considered one of thee leading indicators for predicting future consumer spending/demand. This will be posted in the comments.
According to Investopedia "ISM data is considered to be a leading indicator of economic trends. Not only does the ISM Manufacturing Index report information on the prior two months, it outlines long-term trends that have been building over time based on prevailing economic conditions".
According to the University of Michigan, the Consumer Sentiment Surveys "have proven to be an accurate indicator of the future course of the national economy."
Based on the above correlation I postulate that we can use the ISM New Orders Index as an additional leading/predictive indicator to establish what direction consumer demand is trending. Something we can keep an eye on and something that will factor in this weeks MACRO MONDAY Edition which i will post immediately after this
PUKA
Shib🐶 End of year 2023 update will it hit $0.01After the rally due to the recent announcement that of a possible Price Boost From Binance ‘Loans’
A lot has changed this outcome and possible support for the future, the question still remains
Will Shib see $0.01?
I can't fully answer that question but the likelihood of it is high.
Be warned, however; there is no telling when and if it will, the gold bars are just idea areas where it might go if shib see's major support in the coming months so take it with a grain of salt.
BINANCE:SHIBUSDT
COINBASE:SHIBUSD
CRYPTOCAP:SHIB
Interest rates & seasonalityWith interest rising again we could see USD seasonality becoming meaningful again. Last year around October a real downtrend developed towards January like the old days.
Let's see what UJ does from here or if it continues to rise, what it will do at 144.5. Interesting times again!
Update plan GBPUSD 2/8 - H4On the H4 time frame, the current price is approaching 1.26525
Coming here is confirmation of the end of the H4 down wave.
The down wave H4 is the correcting wave of the weekly frame.
Therefore, this idea also reinforces that GU still maintains an uptrend in the medium term.
I have the related ideas below, whenever there are convergence points I will increase the trading volume, which often brings me high profits.
Don't forget we have news tomorrow about interest rates and then USD news, I predict GU will establish 2 bottoms in H1 frame, the latter bottom is lower than the previous one (bottom sweep scenario in H4 frame). Because this is its characteristic.
The Real Alt Coin Season Starts Here!Bitcoin usually surpasses the future halving price in crypto Autumn. Shortly there after we usually start to see alt coins ripping higher at different points throughout the season, all the way up to even early crypto Winter. On this chart I have a few of those OG alt coins (XRP, DOGE & LTC) compared to Bitcoin. The green dashed vertical lines are the points where bitcoin surpassed the future halving price in the past 2 cycles. Now take a look at the parabolic rise of these alt coins after that event. Vertical! Obviously there are some pretty significant moves before then, but nothing compares to after bitcoin surpasses the future halving price! The next event is projected to be around late 2024 to early 2025. What are your thoughts?
SPX 500 - where are we now?G'day,
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Pink = Three, Four Day
Orange = Daily
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Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed.
Daily Chart
Weekly
Monthly
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Professional analyst with 6+ years experience in the capital markets
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
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Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
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LVPA MMXXIII
The Crypto Downtrend Cycle Has Ended: Onto the Next Cycle2018-2020 bear market
- Duration: 852 days
2021-2023 bear market
- Duration: 852 days?
Crypto market cycles have historically been predictable.
Some theorize this predictability is the direct product of the BTC supply schedule that halves block rewards every four years.
Some theorize that early canadian BTC miners accentuated the predictability of bitcoin market cycles as a result of cold winters when they used their miners to heat their shanties in 2012, only to become billionaires less than a decade later.
Perhaps a bunch of canadians are the Wyckoffian composite btc market operator, that would be something, ey?
10x Your ALTCOIN Portfolio with these 💎 Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
The cryptocurrency market is constantly evolving, and one of the most interesting trends to watch is the rotation of liquidity between BTCUSDT and altcoins. This refers to the movement of capital/cash/dollars between BTC and alts as investors seek out the best opportunities for short term gains.
Since we have already seen the rotation from BTC into higher market cap coins such as XRP, ETH, SOL and LTC, we can now expect to see rallies across the microcap altcoin market. But the altcoin market is more mature than last time. More and more investors are seeking to invest early in projects with real value, real use case and good fundamentals.
Today I'd like to point out a few of those altcoins that I'm watching:
1) SOLOUSDT
2) FGHTUSDT
3) SYNUSDT
As seen on the bottom chart
4) CQTUSDT
As seen on the top chart
STAY TUNED for more updates 🔥
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CryptoCheck
POLONIEX:SOLOUSDT CRYPTO:SOLOUSD UNISWAP3ETH:FGHTUSDT_7C7B2A.USD BINANCE:SYNUSDT OKX:CQTUSDT
Gold 15m 1st AugustWe are now in a new month, gold has traded aggressively in the last month, currently I am mapping a bullish internal structure, I would like to see gold trade higher today. We have news this afternoon.
Again ideally I would like to have seen a deeper push to the downside to clear the lows from Monday. If the price does do this during the afternoon I will re evaluate.