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Seasonality

Exploring Seasonality in Crude Oil PricesWhat rises, must fall. What comes down, goes up again. This rings most true for crude oil prices. Both secular and seasonal trends are at play in crude oil prices. Demand for oil moves in tandem with global economic activities. Key secular trends impacting oil markets over this decade was covered in our previous paper . These range from falling demand from developed markets, and rising demand in emerging economies, among others. While secular trends unravel over a longer time, seasonal cyclical effects can be observed over a short term. This paper will explore consumption patterns driving annual seasonality in crude oil prices. In Part two of this paper, we will illustrate trading crude oil derivatives to harness opportunities arising from seasonality. CRUDE OIL SUPPLY CHAIN: AN OVERVIEW Gluts and shortages, economic growth and contractions, and geopolitics impact crude oil prices. Different events impact various segments of the supply chain. The global crude oil supply chain is complex and intricate. It can broadly be classified into Upstream, Midstream, and Downstream. Upstream and midstream sectors drive crude oil supply. Upstream outage or shortage affects available supply which are sometimes evened out by the midstream through adequate inventories. Downstream and midstream drives demand. End consumer demand is observed in distribution. Refineries adjust output based on their margins which in turn is derived from crude oil prices and refined product prices. WHAT DRIVES SEASONALITY? Seasonality in demand for refined products impact crude oil prices. Higher demand for refined products (gasoline, diesel, and kerosene) is observed in summer because of travel. While lower supply is caused by maintenance linked pauses in downstream during winter. Crude oil inventory shifts can be segmented into four phases, namely: (1) Inventory Build Up (Feb - May), (2) Summer Travel Spikes Demand (Jun - Aug), (3) Demand Shrinks & Supply Contracts (Sep - Nov), and (4) Winter led demand spike (Dec - Jan). This seasonality is evident in US crude oil inventory shifts as exhibited below. Impact of seasonality is not always directly apparent or predictable. Why? Crude oil is so deeply intertwined with global economics. Shocks, if any, can have an outsized impact on prices and volatility. Also, supply cuts from majors oil producers and GDP shifts in major consumers have jumbo effect on prices. Consequently, other factors moderate or nullify impact of seasonality. The below chart shows the average price behaviour of Crude oil from the start of each year over the past twenty (20) years by using CME front month crude oil futures price data from TradingView. Orange bars in the above chart represents average monthly price change measured over last twenty years. Meanwhile, the white bar shows monthly price change for the same period but after excluding the outliers. Outlier years include 2008 (global financial-crisis), 2020 (pandemic), and 2022 (Russia-Ukraine conflict). Crude prices go bullish on higher demand by refineries starting in March and continue to rise through the summer months as demand for refined products remains high driven chiefly by increased travel. However, by August, sufficient refined product inventories dampen demand. With refineries slowing for maintenance, crude demand declines leading to a moderation in price. Finally, a small uptick is observed in December as demand starts to rise again during peak winter. The average monthly returns for each month are displayed below. However, note that the standard deviation for these averages is non-trivial indicating that month-of-the-year effect on crude oil prices is uncertain and, in many cases, statistically insignificant. This conclusion is also arrived at based on various academic research papers. METHODS TO HARNESS CRUDE OIL SEASONALITY Three most common methods to harness gains from seasonality include: a. Futures (highest upside and highest downside), b. Call options (upside limited relative to futures and limited downside risk), and c. Call and/or Put Spreads (limited upside and limited downside). Traders can deploy options to express a directional view with unlimited upside and limited downside. In a long options position, the downside is limited to the premium paid. Conversely, a short position in options involves selling an option. This offers upside limited to the premium collected but exposed to unlimited downside. TRADE SET UP ILLUSTRATIONS From July until November, based on historical observations over the last twenty years, crude oil prices tend to fall. We could set up a trade using the December contract month of CME Micro Crude Oil Futures which expires on Nov 17th: 1. Short Futures: Short Futures position in MCL Dec 2023 contract (MCLZ3) at USD 70 per barrel with the anticipation that prices will fall by November. 2. Long Puts: Long Put options on MCLZ3 at a strike of USD 69 per barrel with a hypothetical options premium of USD 3 per barrel. 3. Bear Call Spread: Bear Call Spread with a net premium of USD 1 per barrel on MCLZ3 comprising of a short call option at a strike of USD 71 a barrel (collecting options premium of USD 5 per barrel) and a long call option at a strike of USD 73 a barrel (paying options premium of USD 4 per barrel). The Bear Call Spread profits a fixed amount equal to the net premium when both options expire out of the money. When only the short call options expires in the money, the position loses by having to pay the options buyer. However, when both options expire in the money the profit from the long option partially offsets this loss resulting in a capped downside. Each CME Micro Crude Oil Futures contract represents one hundred barrels of crude oil. Accordingly, the above three trade set ups are illustrated across various price scenarios as shown below. Please note that these illustrations do not include (a) transaction costs comprising of exchange trading and clearing costs and brokerage fees, and (b) capital costs associated with margins required for establishing these positions. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by mintdotfinance
3
Similarity between LTC halving and BTC halvingThe Litecoin (LTC) halving and Bitcoin (BTC) halving share some similarities, as they both involve a reduction in the block reward for miners. However, there are also some differences between the two events. Block Reward Reduction: Both LTC halving and BTC halving result in a reduction of the block reward. In the case of BTC, the block reward is halved approximately every four years, while for LTC, it occurs every four times the number of blocks mined compared to Bitcoin. This means that LTC halving happens roughly four times more frequently than BTC halving. Supply Reduction: Both halvings aim to reduce the rate at which new coins are introduced into circulation. By reducing the block reward, the inflation rate decreases, leading to a more controlled and limited supply of new coins. This reduction in supply can potentially impact the price of the respective cryptocurrencies, as it can create a scarcity effect. Market Anticipation: Leading up to both LTC halving and BTC halving, there is often a period of market anticipation and speculation. Traders and investors closely monitor these events, expecting them to have a positive impact on the price due to the reduced supply. This anticipation can drive up the price in the months preceding the halving. Miner Incentives: Both halvings affect the incentives for miners. As the block reward decreases, miners receive fewer coins for their mining efforts. This reduction in rewards can lead to a shift in mining profitability and may impact the overall mining ecosystem. Miners may need to upgrade their equipment or adjust their strategies to maintain profitability. Despite these similarities, it's important to note that BTC and LTC are separate cryptocurrencies with their own unique characteristics and ecosystems. While they share some fundamental concepts, they also have differences in terms of adoption, market capitalization, community, and development, among other factors. Therefore, the impact and significance of the halving events can differ for each cryptocurrency.
BINANCE:LTCUSDShort
by NETchapter
2
Why ZEC (ZCASH) Could outperform all other coinsName PriceUSD Marketap Circulatingupply Maxupply Totalupply ATH ATL BTCNP ATH/PRc ATL/PRc "Zcash ZEC" 29.58 450,671,988 16,328,269 21,000,000 16,328,269 5941 18.94 24.88372019 200.872211 1.561774023 BTCNP is calculated as : CurrentPrice*(CirculatingSupply/CirculatingSupplyOfBTC). This shows the Price of the coin, when it would have the same Circulating Supply as like BTC. BTCNP von XRP: 1323 USD! BTCNP von ETH: 11719 USD! BTCNP von ZEC: 24 USD! With the above Formula you can compare all coins to BTC. You see above the basic data about zcash taken from Coinmarketcap.cap Max Supply and Totalsupply is smilar like BTC. So Zcash is scarse. AllTimeHigh/CurentPrice = 200 those times. So ZEC got 200 times cheaper than from its ATH, that means ZCASH is totaly oversold. AllTimeLow/CurrentPrice = 1,56m , that means Zcash is currently available to near ATL Prices. For BTC ATH/PRc=631299. That means bitcoint sells currectly to 631299-times Price of its ATL. That means Zcash is still very very cheap. The Pricerabge from current Price to ATH is 30 to 5941. Charts are usually symetrical and it appers to me that ZEC found its botto! So the the direction will be symetrical to the left side of the chart. So what are the targets: They are visible on the Chart: The range goes from 660% to 854000%. So I think that others will see those possibilities on the data too. So there is a lot of fantasy on this old darling of the coin community.
KRAKEN:ZECUSD
by hkmh
5
Gold H4 25th June InisightsGoldie June overall has been trading in a range, weekly inside bar created, price failed to take the high suggesting the supply is still in control. We have now finally broken lower than the previous week range and closed lower. H4 Interesting price action, the demand areas I have marked are creating some nice reaction points, still no solid break of structure on the H4 chart Would like to see gold trade to the daily gap I have marked, there are some very nice demand zones in confluence. Currently following orderflow on the higher time frame for higher probability trade direction Seasonally gold tends to be trading lower in the last week of June, so far this has aligned nicely with my technical analysis.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Innova_Chartist
BKNG: Hidden Accumulation CuesThe big season for vacations starts this week as schools close, graduations begin, weddings increase, and families plan big vacations this year. BKNG has had HFTs attempting to sell it down several times but it holds within a sideways trend still. This implies hidden accumulation. If it breaks to the upside, then this sideways trend becomes support. BKNG must do as all other high-priced stocks have done: do a big split to lower the share price to $100 - 300. When the Board does so, the stock has more potential for runs up rather than down.
NASDAQ:BKNG
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
NZDJPY to 0.89 - or overextended?Hey Traders! 👋 For Day 34/100 of our challenge, we will look at a data-backed NZDJPY long idea Technicals: - Overall bullish - Made a high at 88.50 - Expecting retracement to 87.60 - Target at 89 - If 86.80 is breached, idea is invalid Other data: ⬆️ Seasonality is still bullish expecting 90 level ⬆️ Pattern scan is also bullish expecting 90 before deeper retracement ⬆️ Supertrend is also bullish ⬆️ Retail traders have extreme short positions which we would want to go against 🤔 What's your take? Like and follow for daily high-quality trade ideas!
Long
by rob_WRLD_
6
Gold 4H insightsGold This has been stuck inside a tight range for some time now, since we had CPI & FOMC rates this week, gold has broken the low of the range however failed to continue higher. Weekly bullish swing structure, weekly pullback Daily bearish H4, stuck in a range, Thursday we can see there has been a strong bullish internal structure shift. Notice the 4 hour leg up has no inducement and the body has closed below the previous swing low. Seasonally we can see there is usually a sizeable pullback on gold during the middle of June before dropping off. My overall target for gold is to fill the daily gap, ideally before it resumes bullish momentum. 1984 is a key area to see if gold stays below this, we will likely see 1900. If gold breaks above 1984 and closes I will be considering the pullback is likely over and become bullish.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Innova_Chartist
1
Sp500 Forecast: Unusual day and last hope for bull 🧙‍♀️ On third Friday of March, June, September and December, most options and futures expire. Already today there will be a large quarterly expiration, popularly called "Quadruple Witching", In total there are 4 of them per year (at the end of each quarter). In last hour of a trading session, trading volume and market volatility usually increase sharply. 💫 As a rule, this is followed by a medium-term trend change or strengthening of the previous one. Since March expiration, SP500 has grown by as much as +10%! Almost 90% of this growth was provided by just few companies: NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:TSLA , NASDAQ:META . And since beginning of year, it has grown by +15%, that is, there has already been an increase in the growth trend. The whole quarter went up. For your convenience, I put the witches on chart. The picture clearly shows that magic happens on “witch days” and medium-term extremes of market 🪄 There is extreme greed in USA market right now - the perfect moment for a market reversal! At such moments, unjustified pumps are visible in some unprofitable companies: NYSE:SPCE , NYSE:AI , etc. If you are stuck in these papers, now is a good time to sell. But from next week you can already start wearing shorts, summer is coming ☀️🩳 Now, the US Ministry of Finance and FED are also playing on side of the bears, which are withdrawing liquidity from the market. Market reversal is 99% ready ✅ 🎯 Targets for a set of medium-term long positions: 4000p, 3800p. You can find even more profitable ideas in the profile header 🎩 If you are interested in analysis of any other asset - write in the comments and I will do it.
SP:SPXShort
by Dorado_Crypto
FOMC REPORT : Stocks, Bonds, BTC & GoldHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts 📈📉 Did you miss the 2023 June 13/14 FOMC meeting? No worries, CryptoChecks' got you covered. Here's a summary of what happened and how the outcome of this meeting may affect the respective markets. First, let's clearly understand the FOMC meeting and it's importance to investors. The Federal Reserve, also known as the Fed, is the central banking system of the United States. It guides the country's monetary policy and influences the economy. The Fed's announcements and statements are closely watched by traders and investors because they can have a significant impact on financial markets. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is a committee within the Fed that makes decisions on monetary policy. It consists of twelve members, including the seven members of the Board of Governors and five Reserve Bank presidents. They meet eight times a year to discuss and set policies. FOMC meetings are important events for traders because any changes in interest rates can affect various economic factors, such as employment, inflation, and exchange rates. The meetings occur every six weeks, and some include a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and a press conference by the Fed Chair. Traders pay close attention to the Fed's decisions and statements because they provide valuable information about the state of the economy and future policy changes. Now, let's look at what was said in this FOMC meeting: The Federal Reserve decided to pause its series of interest rate hikes at its June meeting, following ten consecutive increases. While the central bank expressed optimism about curbing inflation, the battle is not yet over, and further rate hikes may be on the horizon. Important facts: 🏛 The Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) announced that the federal funds target rate would remain unchanged within a range of 5.0% to 5.25% during the June meeting. This marks the first policy meeting since the start of the Fed's tightening cycle in March 2022 in which interest rates were not raised. 🏛 The Fed confirmed its plan to continue reducing its balance sheet by allowing up to $60 billion in Treasury securities and $35 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to roll off each month, employing quantitative tightening to combat inflation. 🏛 Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the challenges during the press conference and highlighted the uncertainties surrounding the effects of monetary policy on the economy and potential credit tightening headwinds. Despite the pause, it does not indicate the completion of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle, and further increases may be necessary. 🏛 The Fed has been attempting to navigate the challenge of curbing inflation without causing a recession by gradually raising interest rates. Higher rates increase borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, slowing down economic activity. 🏛 The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 4.1% annually in May, down from the 4.9% gain in April, which was the highest in 40 years. The core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, increased by 4.7% in April, slightly up from March but lower than the 2022 peak of 5.3%. The long-term target for core PCE inflation is 2%. 🏛 The tight U.S. labor market has posed challenges in the fight against inflation. In May, the U.S. economy added 339,000 jobs, surpassing expectations, and wages increased by 4.3% year-over-year. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% but remained near historic lows. 🏛 Powell indicated that further rate increases might be necessary to gradually bring inflation down to the 2% target. _____________________________ Overall, the potential impact on stocks, commodities, and bonds could look as follow: Stocks: The impact on stocks can be more nuanced. In general, a steady interest rate environment can be positive for stocks. Lower rates can make equities more attractive as an investment option compared to bonds or other fixed-income assets. It can encourage borrowing for business expansion and investment, potentially boosting corporate earnings and stock prices. However, if the market was anticipating a rate cut or an increase, a decision to keep rates unchanged might cause some short-term volatility or adjustments in stock prices as investors reassess their expectations. This could positively impact stock prices, especially in sectors that are sensitive to interest rates, such as technology, consumer discretionary, and housing. Commodities: When interest rates remain steady, it can provide stability and potentially support commodity prices. Lower interest rates generally make borrowing cheaper, which can stimulate economic activity and increase demand for commodities. Conversely, higher interest rates can have the opposite effect, potentially dampening demand and putting downward pressure on commodity prices. Bonds: The pause in interest rate hikes may be favorable for bond prices in the short term. When interest rates remain stable or decline, existing bonds with higher coupon rates become relatively more attractive, leading to increased demand and potentially higher bond prices. Lower interest rates also reduce borrowing costs for companies, which may improve their creditworthiness and decrease the risk of default, making corporate bonds more appealing to investors. Now, you may be wondering to yourself... despite the above; why is Gold (and BTC) falling instead of rising? 💭💭💭 EXTRA for EXPERTS: The fact that the US House of Representatives have passed US debt ceiling bill five days ahead of the deadline could be a reason behind the falling price of Gold. With this in mind, it becomes easier to see why the gold market could have slipped. Still, rampant inflation will probably keep a floor under the gold market and as such; a short term drop to next immediate support zone is the most probable. While the true utility of the metal as a hedge against rising prices is a subject of endless economic debate, many investors insist that it is. It’s notable that prices remain close to historic high levels despite much higher interest rates more or less everywhere. The backdrop of war in Ukraine, tensions in the South China Sea, and the durability of post-covid recovery are also clearly supportive of perceived ‘haven assets’ like gold, silver and bitcoin. Is it possible that the large, corporate investors are just countertrading the bullish retail investors in the commodities market at this point? The odds of a July rate hike are at about 61%, according to CME FedWatch Tool. Investors anticipate a 61.5% chance of the Federal Reserve hiking rates by a quarter point at its July 25-26 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The metric hasn’t moved much since Tuesday, even as the central bank indicated in its dot plot on Wednesday that two more rate hikes are coming up. To understand the relationship between commodities, cryptocurrencies, bonds, and stocks can help you clearly plan your next move after the FOMC meeting. Commodities and Stocks: Inverse Relationship: Historically, there has been an inverse relationship between commodity prices and stock prices. When commodity prices rise, it can lead to higher production costs for companies, affecting profit margins and potentially dampening stock performance. Conversely, when commodity prices decline, it can lower input costs for companies, potentially benefiting their profitability and supporting stock prices. Cryptocurrencies and Stocks: Limited Relationship: Cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, have gained prominence as a separate asset class and are not directly tied to traditional stock markets. As such, the relationship between cryptocurrencies and stocks is generally limited. However, during periods of market volatility or significant news events, there can be some short-term correlations as investors seek alternative assets or sentiment spills over from one market to another. But in terms of long-term correlations, the two asset classes have shown relatively independent behavior. Bonds and Stocks: Inverse Relationship: Bonds and stocks typically exhibit an inverse relationship. When interest rates rise, bond yields increase, making fixed-income investments more attractive relative to stocks. This can lead to a shift in investor preferences from stocks to bonds, potentially putting downward pressure on stock prices. Conversely, when interest rates decline, bond yields decrease, making stocks relatively more attractive, which can contribute to higher stock prices. The relationship between bonds and commodities is typically more complex and can be influenced by several factors: Inflation Expectations: Commodities are often considered an inflation hedge because their prices tend to rise during inflationary periods. When inflation expectations increase, commodity prices may go up, which can lead to higher inflation-adjusted yields on bonds. In this case, there may be a positive correlation between commodities and bond yields. Economic Growth: Commodities, especially those related to industrial sectors like energy and metals, are sensitive to economic growth. When the economy is booming, demand for commodities tends to rise, potentially leading to higher prices. This can be associated with higher inflation expectations and upward pressure on bond yields. Hence, there can be a positive correlation between commodities and bond yields during periods of economic expansion. Safe-Haven Demand : Bonds, especially government bonds, are considered safe-haven assets that investors flock to during times of uncertainty or market turbulence. In contrast, commodities, which are more directly influenced by supply and demand dynamics, may not exhibit the same safe-haven characteristics. Therefore, during risk-off periods when investors seek safety, there can be an inverse relationship between commodities and bond yields. Interest Rates and Opportunity Cost: Changes in interest rates can impact both bonds and commodities. When interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding commodities, which do not pay interest or dividends, increases. This can potentially lead to downward pressure on commodity prices. Conversely, when interest rates decline, the opportunity cost of holding commodities decreases, which can be supportive of commodity prices. In this case, there can be an inverse relationship between bond yields and commodity prices. _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We appreciate your support ! CryptoCheck _____________________ AMEX:SPY TVC:US10Y TVC:GOLD INDEX:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT NYSE:GOLD CURRENCYCOM:GOLD
AMEX:SPY
by CryptoCheck-
29
The ROAD to DOGE Dogecoin - A monthly time analysis - 35 month Decline / Consolidation Period - Current D/C period ends in April 2024 - Whether the ATH from prior cycle is reached or not, time will tell. That will require lower pennant exit. - Upper pennant breach, get in. My prior TOTAL 2 and TOTAL 3 analysis of the altcoin market suggested altcoin season would not start until between Dec 2023 and Mar 2024. We now have a chart for DOGE that suggests a good window for entry of a trend would be April 2024. You can really see why so many pundits are requesting you to hold back on Altcoin allocation until later in the cycle when probability is in your favor. Nothing is guaranteed here. We are looking for more probable outcomes and time patterns can help us time the trade with less risk. IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT DOGE IS ONE OF THE FEW PROOF OF WORK CHAINS THATS BROKEN OFF FROM BTC WITH A LONG HISTORY OF PROOF OF WORK WITH LITECOIN AND A FEW OTHERS. DO NOT WRITE IT OFF. AS SILLLY AS IT IS, ITS SILLINESS SELLS AND ITS BACKED BY A PROOF OF WORK ALGO THATS STOOD THE TEST OF TIME AND RESULTED IN BTC BECOMING THEE GREATEST ASSET OF THE DECADE. PAY ATTENTION TO PROOF OF WORK COMMODITIES, THEY WILL NEVER BE SECURITIES. PUKA
BITTREX:DOGEUSD
by PukaCharts