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Seasonality

US30 Bullish BiasFundamentals: Valuation: Undervalued on the 30d - 13d Between the mean/Undervalued on 10d (projecting one more drop to undervalued on the 10 days) Seasonality: Following the price well. But I've explained that the price of Dow Jones reached a High 2-3 weeks before seasonality Tool predicted. As per 5y 10y 15y seasonality, the bottom of US30 could be this week, or early next week. Whether we see another drop is something we can't tell. But Seasonality tool was late as per the example I've showed you on Trade Station, could be late this time around, and we could find a bottom within the next 5-6 trading days! Technically: I've explained why I prefer the lower Daily Demand Zone. The Demand Zone we are currently at - is where the Equilibrium lies as per Fib Tool - therefore not a good buy level! Lastly, can we see one more heavy move down with A -3.5% on FOMC this Wednesday? We don't know, but it happened in December and it could happen this week!
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by Nedal13
Q4 effects on BitcoinTIME BASED LONG TERM BITCOIN SPECULATION First of all, This analysis is not about to tell you that the bottom is in or not, this is a fun theory which has no confirmation for the future. As i see every time Bitcoin enters the November zone, it starts to make a bigger move. In this analytics maybe not the november month is what matters, it can be analysed by quarters or yearly periods too, but i chose the november zone. 2014 november: (A) -top of the bull market 2015 (little bit after) november: (B) -bottom of the bear market 2016 november: (C) -breakout and retest to the fibonacci zones then rally 2017 (little bit after) november: (A) -Top of the bull market 2018 (little bit after) november: (B) -bottom of the bear market 2019 november: (C) -breakout and retest to the fibonacci zones then rally 2021 november: (A) -Top of the bull market 2022 november: (B) -Bottom of the bull market? We can also identify a gap between C and A period because the rally doesn't end in the next november cycle. This analytics does not say that the bottom is in, but it can be already in or days/weeks away from the current price. The structure has to be analysed by self, and this chart could give us a clue where should we see the price a year after. The price should be in the 30k region to see a retest or a breakout from the zone. in 2024 we should see 30k usd / BTC, but we don't know that if we will have a rally before it. Hope i gave you something interesting. Thanks for reading and have a nice trading carrier:) (Always bullish on BTC)
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Dandady
1
$SOL Dumps 60% - Is it Over !?CRYPTOCAP:SOL DUMPED OVER 60% ‼️ That’s after a 3,500% pump from the bear market low in ’22. Is it over!? TL;DR - NO. This is common after such an insane pump. SOL Dec ’20 - May ’21 5,700% pump 71% correction then another 1,290% pump Let’s look at previous cycles with $ETH. Dec ’16 - June ’17 6,380% pump 67% correction then another 916% pump Dec ’18 (bear market low) - May ’21 4,860% pump 62% correction then another 185% pump So you see my fine feathered friends, there’s nothing new here. Targets still remain $700-850 🤠
BINANCE:SOLUSDLong
by jonnieking
Don't Panic! Good times around the corner for BitcoinGlobal M2 Money Supply Global M2 has been leading BTC price action very closely by 10 weeks. Roughly 12 days from today for upward price action to strongly resume, if the correlation holds. A wick down to 73-74k is nothing to worry about. In terms of time we are likely very close to the bottom, if it's not already in. You can use the indicator on your chart for free below. Shout out to @Mik3Christ3ns3n for the original indicator.
Long
by CalmMonkey
Dow Jones: A Make-or-Break Buy Setup with Smart Money BackingDow Jones Industrial Average - Buy Setup Technical: U.S. markets have struggled recently due to uncertainty over tariffs imposed by President Trump. While the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have broken key support levels, the Dow remains resilient, holding the critical 41,648 support. A break below would confirm a large double-top pattern, signaling a bearish outlook. This is a pivotal moment. The rebound from overnight lows is encouraging, but with the U.S. CPI release tomorrow, caution is warranted. While speculative, COT and seasonal data favour a short-term move higher. Fundamental: The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) Report shows increasing long interest in the Dow, suggesting "smart money" accumulation. Seasonal: Historically, from March 12 – May 2, the Dow has posted gains 84% of the time, averaging +3.68% over the past 25 years. Setup: Entry: 41,800 – 42,000 Stop Loss: 41,285 (below the Nov 2024 low at 41,648) Target: 44,290 Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:US30Long
by Signal_Centre1
#Bitcoin $BTC OutlookCRYPTO:BTCUSD is testing a 2 years old uptrend channel lower wedge extending since 2023 where #BTC price was ~$25k. The wedge is ranging between ~$80k : ~$70k. Key levels: ~$79k: kind of imminent today. ~$73.5k: The first and the nearest core demand, smart money is concentrated at this level "A bounce is anticipated from here" ~$70k: Is the last bulls haven, breakingdown will unlock the ~$60k mark. Check my previous BTC analysis, I've been calling for the ~$80k : ~$70k since ATHs. #AhmedMesbah
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by AhmedMesbah
Are altcoins ready to take off ? Hello Traders! 🐺 You might have noticed that I haven't posted in a while—so, why the silence? Over the past two weeks, we've seen massive market manipulation by whales and major players. In times like these, it's often safer to step back, observe, and let the charts reveal the market’s true direction before making any moves. But now, I genuinely believe the dump is over. Looking at the BTC.D chart, it's currently forming a bearish pattern right at a key resistance level. That alone is enough for me to say: I'm bearish on BTC.D —and by extension, bullish on altcoins ! Why? Because a rising wedge on the weekly BTC.D chart is a strong signal of a bear trap, suggesting money could soon start flowing into altcoins. Additionally, in the TOTAL3 chart (which excludes BTC & ETH), we see a massive cup and handle pattern on the weekly timeframe. The price has already broken the neckline and is now accumulating above the support line, potentially gearing up to break past its all-time high and push toward a $3 trillion market cap —which, in my opinion, is a conservative target. I hope you find this idea valuable! Don’t forget to like and follow for more insights. Your support means the world! 🚀 🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Long
by Kiu_Coin
18
USDT dominance. (USDC is similar). 03 2025Time frame 1 week. Crypto market dominance to % USDT. I showed this for the first time on 03 2022, nothing has changed since then, everything is the same and the logic is identical. USDT dominance. USDT pumping indicator to the market 03 2022 USDT dominance. Indicator of USDT pumping to and from the market 05 2022 ✔️Stablecoin dominance is falling — the market is growing. ✔️Stablecoin dominance is growing — the market is falling. It cannot be otherwise (capital movement), until the time when ETFs with the US dollar are not massively introduced and popular, they will draw some of the liquidity to themselves. Which will slightly change the logic of this trend itself. Comparable, in terms of impact on the market, as before the introduction of trading pairs to alts/USDT instead of BTC/alts (everyone was like that). Until then, USDT was needed. You need to understand that the main " transitional dollar for the people ", that is, USDT , - reflects the trend of all stablecoins. In particular, the main "competitor" - USDC, all the others (a temporary phenomenon) do not matter. Until USDT exists and can be used to track the direction of the money flow, that is, the direction of the cryptocurrency market. In 2022 09, I also showed this game of liquidity flow into ideas with the combined dominance of USDC + USDT + BTC chart. But this is already a complication, everything is already visible and clear on the dominance of USDT. Domination of USDT + USDC and lows/maxims of BTC. Correlation 2022 09 Remember, any stablecoin is an alt. The experience with UST (Moon Falling into an Urn) has taught many not to equate stablecoins to a real dollar. The price stability of any stablecoin depends only on people's faith in its stability. This faith is projected by marketing activity, and first of all by the real capital that stands behind the creators. Everything conceived and implemented has a beginning and an end. Bitcoin dominance to alts. I will duplicate my latest idea on Bitcoin dominance here once again. I used it before (it was rational), before 2020 (I used to make a lot of ideas about local zones as triggers for market reversals). Now it doesn't do much. But I see people are fixated on this, not understanding the essence, and why it was so effective before and childishly clear when the market would be reversed (there were no pairs to USDT, but only alts to BTC). Before 2018 (100% efficiency), before 2020 (partial), the dominance of Bitcoin to other alts was such an indicator of the pump/dump of the market. As it was the main direction of money flow. Almost all alts were traded only to Bitcoin. Доминация BTC к альткоинам. Доминация стейблкоинов и памп рынка. 07 2022 Have a plan and understand what you are doing, observing money and risk management. As a result, you will be calm and satisfied with your profit from the market, if you are an adequate person. Alt dominance. And this is the idea of ​​training/work (understanding the reversal zones of the crypto market of secondary trends) in 2023 on alts. That is, the dominance of alts without stablecoins, bitcoin and ether, which take away most of the market capitalization as a whole. The dominance is growing, naturally money is pouring into alta and vice versa. There are also similar ideas (look for publications in 2023) for certain groups of assets. That is, the point is to catch the hype, by groups of candy wrappers or, on the contrary, the threshold of stopping the flow of money into another hype. BTC dominance to altcoins. Dominance of stablecoins and market pump . 07 2022 Without pain, there is no way for someone to gain benefits in the speculative market. Who will experience pain and who will gain benefits depends only on the qualities of the person who decided to engage in trading. That is, the totality of his positive/negative qualities that project his actions in the market. Everything is extremely simple and honest. Dollar Index. There are a series of interrelated ideas (three, detailed explanation), about the dollar index, that is, the larger cyclicality of the markets in general, and the crypto market as a small projection. Also, all publications of 2022-2023. DXY Dollar Index USA. Recession and Pump/Dump Market Indicator 09 2022 DXY (Dollar Index) and Pump/Dump BTC. Market Cycles . 09 2022
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DEducation
by SpartaBTC
6
U.S. Stock Market Hits Extreme Fear: Understanding the Decline aThe U.S. stock market has reached an extreme fear level, with the Fear and Greed Index plunging to 24, signaling heightened uncertainty and risk aversion among investors. This sharp decline coincides with a notable drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), which fell by 427.51 points (-0.99%) to 42,579.09. Why Is the Market in Extreme Fear? 1. Concerns Over Federal Reserve Policy Investors remain on edge about the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates. With recent economic data showing persistent inflationary pressures, the Fed might delay anticipated rate cuts. Higher interest rates for longer could hurt economic growth and corporate profits, driving fear in the markets. 2. Weak Corporate Earnings and AI Stock Sell-Off Some major technology and AI-driven stocks, previously market leaders, have shown weaker-than-expected earnings. For example, Marvell Technology reported disappointing revenue guidance, raising concerns about a slowdown in AI infrastructure investments. This led to a broader sell-off in the tech sector. 3. Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Policy Uncertainty The announcement of new U.S. tariffs on key imports has reignited fears of a global trade war, affecting investor sentiment. Small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 Index have been hit particularly hard due to their reliance on domestic manufacturing and global supply chains. 4. Bond Market and Recession Signals The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has fallen from 4.8% to 4.2%, reflecting a shift towards safer assets. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Tracker has adjusted its real GDP forecast to -2.4% for Q1 2025, reinforcing concerns about an economic downturn. 5. Technical and Psychological Market Factors The Nasdaq Composite has entered correction territory, down more than 10% from its recent peak. The S&P 500 is testing its 200-day moving average, a crucial technical level. The Fear and Greed Index at 24 indicates extreme pessimism, often associated with oversold market conditions. Investor Advice in the Current Market 1. Stay Calm and Avoid Panic Selling Extreme fear can create attractive long-term buying opportunities. Historically, markets recover from corrections, and selling out of fear may lead to missed gains when the market rebounds. 2. Focus on Quality Stocks with Strong Fundamentals Look for companies with durable competitive advantages, strong balance sheets, and consistent cash flows. Defensive sectors like healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples may offer stability during market uncertainty. 3. Diversify and Hedge Risks Consider increasing exposure to bonds or dividend-paying stocks for more stable income. Holding gold or other safe-haven assets can provide downside protection. 4. Use a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) Strategy Instead of trying to time the market, gradually invest in tranches to reduce the impact of short-term volatility. 5. Watch Key Economic Indicators and Fed Signals Pay attention to upcoming CPI inflation reports, job data, and Fed meeting outcomes for clues on interest rate direction. A clear signal of rate cuts could trigger a market rebound. Final Thoughts While extreme fear in the market reflects investor anxiety, it also presents potential opportunities for disciplined investors. Understanding the driving factors behind the sell-off and taking a strategic, long-term approach can help investors navigate this period of uncertainty. As Warren Buffett famously said, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."
DJ:DJILong
by theartofinvest
USDCHF Short at 0.89099 w Technical analyis;Fundamental,..Trade Idea: Short USD/CHF Entry: 0.89118 Stop Loss: 0.89293 Take Profit: 0.88528 Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 3.25:1 Risk per Trade: 1,8% Analysis: OANDA:USDCHF • Technical Setup: Price is rejecting the MR50 and pivot point, showing bearish signals. Long wicks suggest a potential reversal. • Indicators: Williams %R shows overbought conditions, supporting the short setup. • Timeframe: Entering on the 50-minute chart after confirmation of price rejection or lower highs. Fundamentals: • Swiss CPI: 0.6% (actual) vs 0.5% (forecast) indicates a stronger Swiss Franc, supporting the short trade on USD/CHF. • COT Data: Positions are bearish on USD and bullish on CHF, aligning with the setup. Market Sentiment: • DXY: A bearish USD supports the downside in USD/CHF. • Overall Sentiment: Bearish sentiment towards USD in March suggests continued weakness for USD/CHF. Risk Management: • Stop Loss at 0.89313 and take profit at 0.88528, offering a 2.97:1 risk-to-reward ratio. This is a high-probability short setup with solid technical, fundamental, and sentiment alignment. Always use proper risk management. (70-75% Probability of Winning this Trade)
Short
by theprofithunter07
4
ETH in a LIVERMORE Accumulation cylinder.What is a Livermore accumulation cylinder? The Livermore Accumulation Cylinder gained fame through the insights of Jesse Lauriston Livermore, a Massachusetts-born American investor celebrated as one of the most exceptional traders in history. His theory revolves around what is often referred to as an ascending broadening wedge, a phenomenon that unfolds over extended time frames. What is an accumulation cylinder with a widening mouth? First recognized by the iconic trader Jesse Livermore, who essentially laid the groundwork for technical analysis, the 'Accumulation Cylinder with Widening Mouth' is a unique and gradually developing pattern. In this scenario, the price oscillates between two diverging lines, creating a tension that can lead to a significant upward breakout. Is Ethereum resolving its own Livermore cylinder? This isn’t the first instance of cryptocurrency showcasing a Livermore cylinder: Ethereum might currently be in the midst of resolving its own version, and Bitcoin may have experienced a similar pattern back in 2017. While the charts may seem to align quite well, it’s crucial to remember that they are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Instead, they can serve as a valuable guide for managing risk, setting expectations, and establishing realistic profit targets. Many newcomers to crypto dream of achieving a 100x return, but as demonstrated by Bitcoin whales, true profits often come from strategically trimming and adjusting their positions, making only a few calculated moves from cycle to cycle.
CRYPTO:ETHUSDLong
by BallaJi