Seasonality
Corn Prices Fizzle on Bumper HarvestCorn prices have fallen 14% since the start of 2023. The latest USDA report points to further downside. Corn prices are expected to fizzle with expectations of a bumper harvest combined with tepid demand.
The USDA expects a record harvest of 15.27 billion bushels. The 2023/24 forecasts signal rising corn supply boosting ending stocks to their highest level since 2016/17.
To hedge against falling corn price, this case study proposes a short position using CME Corn Futures (ZCN2023) expiring in July with an entry of 586.25 and a target of 433.25, which is hedged by a stop loss at 654.25, is likely to yield a reward-to-risk ratio of 2.25x.
RECORD CORN HARVEST IS ANTICIPATED RESULTING IN SOARING ENDING STOCKS
WASDE, short for World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, is a monthly report released by the US Department of Agriculture (“USDA”) that tracks the supply and demand for various agricultural commodities.
In the latest WASDE report, released on May 12th, USDA expects a record 15.3 billion bushels of corn to be harvested in the US this year.
The US is the largest producer of corn, representing 32% of total global production. Global corn production is expected to rise 6% YoY in 2023-24.
While production is robust, demand and consumption are not expected to grow as fast. Global demand is expected to rise 3.7% with US consumption expected to climb 3.4%. This will result in an oversupply of corn with soaring inventory levels (i.e., Ending stocks).
Ending stocks represent the supply of corn that is carried over to the next year. They are expected to rise 56% YoY to 2.2 billion bushels, the highest level since 2016-17. This leaves plenty of supply to accommodate any demand expansion.
A bumper harvest in October is expected to cause an oversupply pushing corn prices lower.
Despite the recent decline in corn prices, they remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. With ending stocks now expected to reach pre-pandemic levels, prices will likely follow.
WEATHER MAY UPSET BUMPER HARVEST EXPECTATIONS
The WASDE estimate assumes stable weather conditions as well as demand assumptions regarding China.
Weather conditions play a huge role in final harvested yield. In the current year, drought conditions & intense heat in Argentina led to lower crop yields. With extreme weather events rising globally, it is possible that unfavorable weather may reduce the final US corn output.
China is the largest consumer of corn. With hopes of strong economic recovery still simmering, demand in China may spike higher than USDA expectations.
If supply fails or demand spikes, Corn prices may remain steady or even rise.
Asset Managers and Options Markets are positioning for Corn price to plunge
CFTC’s Commitment of Traders Report shows that asset managers have more than doubled their net short positioning in Corn futures over the last twelve (12) weeks.
Other reportable traders have reduced their net long positioning by almost 50% in the same period. Both indicate rising bearishness about corn prices.
Similar sentiment is reflected in the options market. Although June and July contracts have Put/Call ratio of ~0.85 (more calls than puts), this is before the bumper harvest is expected (August-October). The September and December contracts which expire after the harvest have a Put/Call ratio of ~1.2.
The futures forward curve, which is in backwardation, also shows expectations for prices to drop following the harvest.
TRADE SETUP
Each lot of CME Corn Futures provides exposure to 5,000 bushels of corn. A short position in CME Corn Futures expiring in July (ZCN2023) with an entry of 586.25 and a target of 433.25, which is hedged by a stop loss at 654.25, is likely to yield a reward-to-risk ratio of 2.25x.
• Entry: 586.25 ¢/bushel
• Target: 433.25 ¢/bushel
• Stop: 654.25 ¢/bushel
• Profit at Target: USD 7,650
• Loss at Stop: USD 3,400
• Reward-to-risk: 2.25x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
POLKADOT: Classic Accumulation, Rally Phase NextBINANCE:DOTUSDT
Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year.
In today's analysis, POLKADOT presents a great buying opportunity with a low risk and high reward setup. Currently trading in accumulation phase of the Wyckoff Method market cycle phases, you may still get another chance to buy lower BUT expect the price to continue trading in the accumulation zone ranges (within the support zone and resistance one pointed out in the green box) . The timeframe of six months is significant because most market cycles / phases start to show signs of change after 6 months of a specific trend being observed as in this case, a bearish trend was observed for about 6 months.
After successfully confirming a bottom on both the chart as well as on the Technical Indicator, flashing an oversold with the built in RSI, it seems that the most logical next phase is the upwards phase, however you might need some patience as to "when" this rally will happen.
_______________________
📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍
We thank you for your support !
CryptoCheck
A Primer on Soybean Crush SpreadSoybeans are one of the most versatile and important agricultural commodities in the world, consumed extensively by humans, livestock, and industry. Soybean prices have an undeniable impact on the global economy and their importance is only increasing with the rapidly growing bio-diesel industry.
In our previous paper Heavy Exports Weighing Down Soybeans , we described factors affecting the supply of Soybean and their seasonality.
Supply is largely driven by harvest cycles and crop yields. Demand can shift for multiple reasons. Live stock feed, Cooking oil and Biodiesel form the largest demand source for Soybean. These are all derived from the two by-products of Soybean – Soybean Meal (“Meal”) and Soybean Oil (“Oil”)).
During Soybean processing, the seed is crushed to separate the oil from the meal. These by-products can be traded as separate commodities.
Traders can harvest gain from the shifting relationship between the by-products and soybean using the crush spread. This paper will describe the crush spread, its computational methodology, and the methods for investors to harvest gains from it. The paper will also look into the factors defining the crush spread in 2023.
The Crush Spread
The Soybean crush spread refers to the value of Soybean’s gross processing margin, which is the difference between the value of the outputs (Meal Price + Oil Price) and the value of the inputs (Soybean Price).
The crush spread is traded on the cash and futures markets and is often used by Soybean processors to hedge their margins for the actual process. It can also be used to harvest gains from the shifting dynamics between Soybean and its byproducts.
Factors That Affect the Spread
The crush spread can be influenced by the price of soybeans, the demand for its byproducts and the cost of production.
Production costs can vary due to energy prices, labor conditions, carryover stock, and health of supply chains.
Demand for by-products is driven by some common factors such as macro-economic conditions but also by factors unique to each commodity.
Meal is used for livestock feed while Oil is used as a cooking oil and as biodiesel.
Livestock feed demand is driven largely by China to feed its large swine population. Like soybean supply, feed demand also shows high seasonality. Due to a shortage of grass in the winter, Soybean Meal is consumed during these months leading to higher demand.
Additionally, unlike other commodities, Soy Meal cannot be stored for longer than 3 weeks. So, during the US harvest (October), Soy Meal prices plummet due to oversupply.
Cooking oil demand is sensitive to the supply and price of Palm oil, which is also widely used for cooking. Both can be used interchangeably; they are the so called substitute products. So, the decision of which product food producers choose depends on prices, supply, and import/export policy decisions.
Moreover, Soybean Oil is far more suitable for the production of biodiesel than Palm Oil. This is why Soybean Oil generally trades at a premium of $100-$150 tonnes to Palm Oil. In the US, Soybean Oil demand for biodiesel is even higher owing to a fast-growing renewable diesel industry.
Shifting Dynamics of Soybean By-Products
Downbeat Macro
With recession risks and inflation running high in many countries, the macro-economic outlook is downbeat. This weighs on the demand for Soybean and its by-products, resulting in lower prices and a narrowing spread.
China’s Reopening
China’s reopening from pandemic restrictions last year is in full swing. Although initial recovery was sharp, conditions have started to cool due to downbeat macroeconomic conditions weighing on export demand and still weak domestic demand.
China’s large swine population is a major driver of meal demand. Heading into the winter, in case domestic demand starts to recover, it would lead to far higher meal demand and prices resulting in a narrowing spread.
Rising Demand for Soybean Oil
In the past, crush demand was driven largely by demand for Meal, Oil was considered a surplus without enough uses. However, rising demand for green energy across the globe and tax incentives for producers have led to a sharp increase in demand for Soybean oil in the past few years, particularly in the US.
Biodiesel production capacity nearly doubled between 2021 and 2022. Since then, markets have normalized with higher planting of crops and increased Soybean crushing capacity installed.
Despite the downbeat economic conditions, demand for Soybean Oil is expected to increase 4.9% this year after surging 6.5% last year, according to the USDA. With higher demand for Soybean Oil, crush demand will also increase. This would result in a change in the price relationship between Meal and Oil as well as a narrower crush spread due to higher volumes.
Harvesting Profit from Crush Spread
Investors can take a position on the crush spread in a capital efficient manner using CME’s Soybean (ZS), Soybean Oil (ZL), and Soybean Meal (ZM) futures. CME offers margin offsets for a crush spread position using these contracts. In addition, the Soybean crush can be executed on CME Globex as a single trade.
Each of these 3 contracts are quoted in different units. ZS is quoted in cents/bushel. ZM is quoted in dollars/short ton. ZL is quoted in cents/pound. As such, in order to calculate the value of the spread, the price of each contract needs to be converted to cents/bushel.
A bushel of Soybean (60 pounds) yields 11 pounds of Soybean Oil and 44 pounds of 48% protein Soybean Meal. The conversion factors are given below
Soybean Oil per bushel: ZL Price x 0.11
Soybean Meal per bushel: ZM Price x 0.022
Crush Spread ($/bushel) = (Soybean Oil per bushel + Soybean Meal per bushel) - ZS Price/100
As per each contract's exposure size, a long crush spread position using CME futures comprises long eleven (11) Soybean Meal futures contracts, long nine (9) Soybean Oil futures contracts, and short ten (10) Soybean futures contracts. This position would normally require a margin of $67,625 for the nearest month contracts. However, with the 88% margin offset, investors can go long on the crush spread with exposure to 50,000 bushels for just ~$8,115 in margin.
Alternatively, investors can also get direct exposure to the crush spread using CME’s options on the Soybean Board Crush Spread. Each contract gives exposure to 50,000 bushels.
Example Trade
Like Soybean prices, the crush also shows seasonality. This is due to the combined seasonal effects of Soybean and each of its byproducts. In our previous paper, we highlighted that Soybean prices are at their lowest in October due to the US harvest.
Due to a low input cost (Soybean price), Board crush expands during this time. The same uptrend can be seen during the summer months representing the harvest from Brazil and Argentina.
It should be noted that seasonal trends are not a guarantee as other factors can have outsized effects on markets.
A long position in the Board crush would represent a short position of 10 Soybean contracts and a long position in 11 Soybean Meal contracts & 9 Soybean Oil contracts.
As an example trade, consider the board crush in Jan 2019. Going long on the board crush on 9th Jan with an entry level of USD 1.02/bushel and an exit at USD 1.37/bushel would yield 34% profit. However, investors should note that the board crush value is highly volatile, as it is derived from three volatile underlying drivers. So, stop loss needs to be adjusted for the high volatility.
Positions on 9th Jan:
● Short 10 ZS1! at entry level of 924 c/bushel
● Long 11 ZM1! at entry level of USD 323.4 /short ton
● Long 9 ZL1! at entry level of 28.6 c/lb
Note that the crush declined to 0.91 on 15th Feb representing downside of 10.7%:
● ZS1! at price level 921.5 resulting in profit of USD 1,250
● ZM1! at price level 310.5 resulting in loss of USD 14,190
● ZL1! at price level 29.95 resulting in profit of USD 7,290
Net loss: USD 5,650
Crush started to rise in April and peaked at 1.37 (+34%) on 30th May:
● ZS1! at price level 877.85 resulting in profit of USD 23,075
● ZM1! at price level 327.4 resulting in profit of USD 4,400
● ZL1! at price level 27.8 resulting in loss of USD 4,320
Net Profit: USD 21,155
Key Takeaways
1) Board Crush or the Crush Spread represents the Gross Processing Margin (GPM) of crushing Soybean into its by-products as quoted by cash and futures markets.
2) Board Crush allows traders to replicate the Soybean Processing Value Chain. It enables traders to harvest gains from changing crush margins while enabling crushers to hedge their GPMs.
3) Board crush can be volatile which requires astute risk management while trading it.
4) Trading board crush using CME futures is margin efficient due to substantial margin offsets (88%).
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Bitcoin Quarterly Time Pattern A chart can help frame your mindset for whats to come and I hope this chart and outline below helps you frame and prepare yourself to the 9 bull quarters remaining (over 2 years of waiting ahead or 27 months).
I used the Heikin Ashi candles as visually I found them better at inflection points for determining the trend change from bear to bull (5th to 6th Quarters).
Main take aways from this chart
- MAIN THING IS PATIENCE AND TO BE ON OUR TOES IN Q4 2026. We should be taking profits as early as October and the majority in November.
- There are 4 years between all time highs so we project next ATH Quarter will be Q4 2026.
- 5 Bear Quarters are followed by 11 Bull Quarters.
- We are in the 2nd Quarter of an 11 Quarter Bull Run. Patience required.
- We have never seen just one green Heikin Ashi Candle so we can expect another relatively green quarter in Q3. This is saying a lot and is not the expectation. That does not mean that we could bounce off the Q2 lows of $23,190. Regardless probability Q3 would
finish green (based on history) is high despite BEAR NEWS. No guarantees, just more probable based on the chart. In contrast, the weekly candles look like they could in fact turn over to the red, however we are looking at the Quarterly chart and even with some
weekly red candles Q3 could still be Green.
All Time Highs on this quarterly chart are all in late Q4 and 4 years apart.
December 2013 - $1,258
December 2017 - $19,789
November 2022 - $32,210 to $68,675 (Fib Ext 1.618 to 2.618)
November 2026 - $109,781 to $176,000 (Fib Ext 1.618 to 2.618)
AGAIN!!! The MAIN THING IS PATIENCE AND TO BE ON OUR TOES IN Q4 2026. We should be taking profits as early as October and the majority in November.
Patience Friends
PUKA
Bitcoin Explosion imminent!? Mini-Bull Market Watch!The bull markets of 2011 and 2019, which developed in early Crypto Spring, produced an explosive move to the upside heading into the second quarter of the year. In this video we briefly take a look at these moves and other possible scenarios. The "pillars " drawn here in ever Crypto Spring run from April 1st to October 1st on the horizontal axes and 50% above the future halving price on the vertical axes. If bitcoin follows this same pattern we will see an explosive move up to the future halving price in the 2nd quarter followed by a dump back below the future halving price in the 3rd quarter.
What are your thoughts? Let us know in the comments below.
✨ NEW: EQUITY POSITION ✨ AMC (1D) ✨ TP3 @ 7.61 (closing ALL BuyTP3 @ 7.61 (closing ALL Buy Orders)
TP2 @ 7.00 (shaving 25% or closing)
TP1 @ 6.33 (shaving 25% or closing)
BLO1 @ 5.55 ⏳
BLO2 @ 4.10 ⏳
ADDITIONAL INFO:
00:00 Shout out to @Casey_Louis 🙌
00:50 Curve Analysis
01:47 Buy Orders
02:56 Key Take Profit Levels
03:27 Gaps, Resistance, and ISR
05:52 Fundamental Analysis
00:00 Boost, Follow, Comment, Join
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Soon, AMC Entertainment expects to report a loss per share of 17 cents. This loss, of course, is much narrower than the 65 cents-per-share loss it posted in the first quarter of 2022.
The investor sentiment is that they hope to see a significant improvement to AMC's balance sheet in the first quarter, including a decrease in the company's debt.
But AMC investors should be aware of management's plan to convert APE units into common shares, which will likely continue to create volatility in AMC stock.
$BTC October 28th, 2022. Bold predictions.Here's my thesis..
Summer ends..
Diminishing Cycles..
Aka Diminishing bear markets..to the tune of 63.5% less.. based off previous bear phases which occurred directly after a 3D death cross..
165 days of chop makes sense.. with a potential sweep of the lows once again.. and sprinkle in a 40% probability of a wick down to 12-14k ..
Until then.. I think we chop sideways until October..
Parabolic bull phase resumes post 2024 election and halving with a 150k-160k USD target before topping out in November 2025. Sorry moon-boys, no million dollar target this decade.
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R.I.P. to my dear friend Andreas who passed on today at the young age of 34.
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Sell Bitcoin in May and Walk Away?'Sell in May and walk away' - does it apply to #Bitcoin? Historically, selling in May results in missing out on gains. However, a simple strategy that buys COINBASE:BTCUSD in Oct and sells in May is profitable 60% of the time, with a net profit of 4.15%.
The strategy's effectiveness depends on the current market cycle. Selling in May misses gains in a recovering market, but helps avoid losses in a bear market. So, is Bitcoin in a bear market now? Evidence suggests not.
Adjusting the strategy to sell in May only if in a downtrend results in lower net profit, but allows for capturing larger trends. Currently, Bitcoin is trading above the 200-period Simple Moving Average, with a significant low & growing on-chain fundamentals.
Based on the strategy, selling in May 2023 may lead to missing out on summer gains. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is in an uptrend since the beginning of the year. Resistance at $30K, support at $26K. Long break of $30K targeting 35-$37K.
Daily Baseline support at $24K; as long as price is above, market is bullish. A Head & Shoulders pattern is forming, projecting a downside target of 23,171. A similar scenario in March rallied to new yearly highs.
For Bitcoin investors: Hold BTC, avoid Ethereum (Bitcoin outperforming). To hedge, short all or part of BTC in the current range. If Bitcoin breaks $30K, unhedge to catch the breakout. Hold short to 23K, then re-evaluate.
In summary, while the "Sell in May" strategy can be profitable, its effectiveness depends on the market cycle. Currently, it may not be the best approach for Bitcoin. Instead, consider holding and hedging to maximize potential gains.
How does the US Federal Reserve balance affect ALL MARKETS? The Fed's balance has decreased, the crypto market, Sp500 went into a correction, and bitcoin is falling faster than Sp500.
BTC is the most risky asset, because it shows weaker than the US index, BUT
Now in the US, many Sp500 companies report quarterly.
The global economy is in recession, which means that you should not expect any impressive results from companies. We expect Sp500 to fall, followed by Bitcoin.
🔍 Now you need to closely monitor the macro data of the US market.
As you can see on the chart, the Fed's balance sheet was already falling below its current levels at the end of February, which led to the bankruptcy of a number of banks. And as a result, new money was poured into the market, which led to the growth of the crypto market🌪️
The leaders of central banks do not know how to solve problems differently, and with such a financial system there is no way out other than printing money.
Therefore, as soon as the Fed's balance sheet starts to grow again, the crypto market will continue to rally with double strength.
Guys, no matter if you trade long/short - be sure to use stops in trades 🛡️
Heavy Exports Weighing Down SoybeansSoybean is among the world’s most traded crop. It is used in various industries. Soybean drives global food prices. It can tilt trade balances of an entire nation.
This paper describes the importance of Soybean. It lists key producers, consumer and maps the harvesting cycle across the calendar by top producing countries.
Given rising Brazilian exports, higher US planting, and asset manager’s positioning, this paper articulates a case study for a short position in CME Soybeans Futures delivering a 1.3x reward to risk with entry at USc 1,452.5/bushel and target of USc 1,350/bushel hedged by a stop at USc 1,530/bushel.
SOYBEAN IS THE WORLD’S MOST TRADED GRAIN
Soybean is high in protein. Hence, it is a key component of livestock feed for meat & dairy production. Rising consumption of the latter two continues to push Soybeans demand.
Two-thirds of Soybean is used for crushing into oil and meal. Soybean oil is among the most widely used vegetable oils. It is also used as biodiesel.
The two American continents form 80% of global production. Brazil (42%) and the US (31%) are the two largest producers of Soybeans. Argentina is a distant third (7%).
China drives demand. It is the largest importer of Soybeans. It comprises 60% of global imports. Soybeans is
used to feed China’s massive livestock.
Soybean prices are cyclical and prone to price shocks.
HARVESTING CYCLE, WEATHER & TRADE POLICY HUGELY INFLUENCES PRICES
Prices vary through the year. It is lowest at harvest. Increases during the year with rising inventory holding costs.
Harvest seasons are spread differently across North & South America. US harvest is from September to November. While the Brazil & Argentina harvest from March until June.
Not surprisingly, Brazilian and US harvest has an enormous impact on Soybean prices. Actual production deviating from expectations in these two majors can send prices surging or tumbling.
Soybean prices since 2015 is visualised below. Prices have structurally moved up. Prices have surged driven by robust demand since 2020.
Soybean prices on average have ranged 14% from its lowest to the highest over the last eight years with large price gyrations in 2016 and 2020.
Price behaviour during and post-harvest since 2015 is visually described in the heatmap below. All things being equal, Soybean prices trend lower during harvesting followed by price recovery post-harvest.
However, each year presents idiosyncratic conditions related to weather, trade policy, yield and output, causing price fluctuation.
Beyond the harvest cycle, climate has a significant impact. North and South America is heavily affected by El Niño-Southern Oscillation which is a natural climate pattern causing hotter/dryer climate every three to seven years. El- Niño also elevates the chances of droughts and floods.
Demand for Soybean Oil is also impacted by supply and demand of other vegetable oils like Palm Oil due to substitution effect.
Global trade policy has a considerable influence too. Trade restrictions can disrupt global supply-demand balance, resulting in increased volatility.
HIGHER PLANTING IN US, RISING BRAZILIAN EXPORTS, AND FALLING YIELDS IN ARGENTINA
USA : In its recent Market Outlook, the USDA reported that US farmers were planning to plant marginally higher than last year but below market expectations. As per National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), soybean crushing spiked to a 15-month high and the second highest level for any month on record in March. The crushing pace jumped as processors bounce back from maintenance related downtime.
Brazil : Soybean exports from Brazil surged 42.5% YoY during the first half of April. Bean prices have trended lower on larger than expected supply.
Argentina : USDA reduced its forecast of Argentina’s soybean crop to twenty-seven million metric tons down from thirty-three million metric tons last month.
Argentina’s soybean yields sunk to historical lows last week as per Buenos Aires Grains Exchange’s (BAGE) weekly report. BAGE warned that its projection, currently at twenty-five million metric tons, could be reduced if yield remains suppressed.
COMMITMENT OF TRADERS REPORT
Two-thirds of soybean crop is crushed into oil and meal. The crush spread, also sometimes referred to as simply the crush, refers to the difference between the value of soybean meal and oil and the price of soybeans. The “crush” is gross processing margin from crushing soybeans.
As such, these three products are deeply intertwined.
Asset managers have reduced net longs in all three contracts since the start of 2023. Intriguingly, asset managers have reduced net longs much more sharply for Oil and Meal relative to Soybeans.
TRADE SET UP
Four key drivers at play. First, rising supply from Brazil. Second, higher planting by US farmers. Third, bearish asset manager positioning. Finally, first three offset by marginal impact of lower yields in Argentina.
In forming a holistic view, this paper posits a short position in CME Soybeans July contract. Each lot provides exposure to 5,000 bushels (~136 tons).
Prices are quoted in U.S. cents per bushel. Minimum price fluctuation (tick) is one-fourth of one-cent. Therefore, every tick represents a change of USD 12.50 per lot.
● Entry: USc 1,452.5
● Target: USc 1,350
● Stop: USc 1,530
● Profit at target: USD 5,125
● Loss at stop: USD 3,875
● Reward-to-risk: 1.3x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.