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Seasonality

CME close as minor S/R levels.Not a great deal of excitement to be had from bitcoin lately. However here's a recurring pattern i have been observing lately since we've been stuck in so many tight ranges. Quite simply the horizontal lines here correspond to recent CME weekly close prices. The whole gap filling thing is well known so i won't go into that but what is more interesting is how many times these lines have provided minor supports and resistances when viewed in shorter time frames. Last week's close level has provided us 6 small bounces since tuesday, perhaps more if we zoom into even lower timeframes from last weekend. This is not an isolated case either. Obviously this is mainly of interest for scalping while the market is so tightly bound but it's useful to note that some like the 18th and 25th Nov closes lower down have also given us so larger bounces. To clarify the price i'm using is the actual weekly close from the CME futures regardless of any divergence it has from the spot price at that same time. Initially i was just looking at them for gap fill targets but it seems they continue to be useful even after that. Worth taking the time to explore this while the market is sideways. I expect this idea will become obsolete whenever btc starts to show signs of a trending direction, either up or down. Of course, we may be waiting some for that to happen.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by mutantdog
Crude Oil Daily Chart Seasonal Swing LongChart 1: Looking at the seasonal performance of oil longs taken around this time of year for the previous 2 years, it can be extrapolated that this last week of January coming up is a good time to go long for a swing trade. It can also be observed that there was a W-bottom this time last year and that we’ve just completed a similar W-bottom pattern. The green channel which reflects the general trend pre-Ukraine war in conjunction with the previous year’s worth of price action transposed to the present time suggests a price target of $95 around mid-February. The biggest obstacles will be the red downtrend channel around $87 and the high pivot from October 2021 at 85.41 which together serve as formidable resistance. Chart 2: Chart number two which is below shows that we’ve broken out of a downtrend channel which goes back further than the downtrend channel in chart number one. It also shows that we’ve rejected the Q1 pivot range in the same manner in which we rejected it around this time last year. This is also similar to how we rejected the Q3 pivot range before heading down although of course that was more volatile. These pivot ranges are defined by Mark B. Fisher as the pivot range calculated from the high, low, and close of the first 2 weeks of the year. The suggested entry of 81.64, stop of 79.64, and target of 95 are shown using the long position tool. The entry is last week’s close and the stop is .33% below Thursday’s candle which rejected the pivot range. The .33% stop was calculated as the 5-day ATR multiplied by ten, divided by the close as per my standard protocol. In Summary: Target: $95 Entry: $81.64 Stop: $79.64 R/R: 6.68 Here’s a snapshot of Chart 1 before being rearranged by the publishing process:
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Skipper86
5
CADCHF SELLCADCHF currently has a score of -4, or a Sell rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theCAD has a long percentage of 29.44%, and we see that the CHF has a long percentage of 24.94%. This category receives a 0, as institutional traders have no strongly favored asset. Taking a look at CADCHF, we see that retail traders are 97% long, and 3% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theCADCHF gets a reading of -1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to fall during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the CAD, inflation favors the CHF, unemployment favors the CHF and interest rates favor the CAD
CShort
by Jury_P
EURGBP BUYEURGBP currently has a score of +3, or a Buy rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theEUR has a long percentage of 69.72%, and we see that the GBP has a long percentage of 35.49%. This category receives a +2, as institutional traders favor the EUR. Taking a look at EURGBP, we see that retail traders are 60% long, and 40% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theEURGBP gets a reading of 0 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to fall during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the EUR, inflation favors the EUR, unemployment favors the GBP and interest rates favor the GBP
ELong
by Jury_P
S&P 2023CME_MINI:ES1! What is to come and what is in store for the US economy? After our confirmed daily deathX in Q2 of 2022. What is to be expected for the duration of this guaranteed to be eventful 2023. Powell has been preaching a ''soft landing'' do you think we will see it unfold before our eyes? Maybe, maybe not however one thing is for certain. Life within itself is perpetual and filled with uncertainties. of course we know the market does not care about what we think. However as traders its imperative that we weigh our risk. Perform our due diligence and trade what is IN front of us. With treasuries rising and the BOJ meeting Wednesday. I myself will be taking a bearish stance with the potential outlook of a earnings recession coming into play. We will see what happens from there. A hedge to to target 3700 is my long term target with a stop loss of 4350 on the spread.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Ra_way