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Seasonality

XAUUSD | LONG as bullish reversal noticed at significant#Week10-Strategy-1 BULLISH INDICATOR (DEC 16) 1. Bullish HH and HLs 2. Strong Bullish candles at significant support region of 1775 to 1777 3. The bearish trend line has been broken 4. Chart pattern is similar to double-bottom reversals 4. Next significant resistance is close to FIB level 78.6% 5. Bullish trend expected to test the long-term resistance of 1795 or short-term resistance of 1806-1810 6. RSI does not show any divergence so a Bullish trend is expected on 1-hour chart BEARISH INDICATOR (DEC 16) 1. As per seasonal, the strongest resistance is around 1795 over the past 10-11 years 2. Price action may test price 1795 and then reverse 3. Otherwise next reversal is expected between 1806 and 1810. PREDICTIONS 1. Bullish reversal has happened and a short-term bullish trend is expected 2. Next short opportunity could be at the significant resistance level of 1806-1810 BIAS 1 = LONG - PLAN 1 (Buy @ Market price 1787) and set TP1 at 1795 and TP2 at next significant resistance. BIAS 2 = SHORT - PLAN 2, (if PLAN-A TP1 hits then anticipate to Sell @ market price of TP2, after re-checking the bearish indications) PLAN A: Long @ Market price (As the Upper bearish channel has been broken) EN1: 1790.78 (@ Market) EN2: 1790.06 (@ Market) SL: 1781.19 TP1: 1799.19 - RR: 0.88 - Lt: 0.05 TP2: 1808.4 - RR: 2.07 - Lt: 0.1 PLAN B: SHORT at 1810. If TP2 of PLAN A will hit, then re-evaluate Bearish conditions. EN: 1810 (@ then Market Order) SL: ? TP1: ? - RR: ? - Lt: 0.05 TP2: ? - RR: ? - Lt: 0.1
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by haroonraees
CHFJPY BUYCHFJPY currently has a score of +5, or a Buy rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theCHF has a long percentage of 9%, and we see that the JPY has a long percentage of 20.84%. This category receives a 0, as institutional traders have no strongly favored asset. Taking a look at CHFJPY, we see that retail traders are 18% long, and 82% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theCHFJPY gets a reading of +1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -1. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the CHF, inflation favors the CHF, unemployment favors the CHF and interest rates favor the CHF
CLong
by Jury_P
EURJPY STRONG BUYEURJPY currently has a score of +6, or a Strong Buy rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theEUR has a long percentage of 67.1%, and we see that the JPY has a long percentage of 20.84%. This category receives a +2, as institutional traders favor the EUR. Taking a look at EURJPY, we see that retail traders are 30% long, and 70% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theEURJPY gets a reading of +1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the EUR, inflation favors the JPY, unemployment favors the JPY and interest rates favor the EUR
ELong
by Jury_P
AUDUSD SELLAUDUSD currently has a score of -4, or a Sell rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theAUD has a long percentage of 32.09%, and we see that the USD has a long percentage of 76.24%. This category receives a -2, as institutional traders favor the USD. Taking a look at AUDUSD, we see that retail traders are 75% long, and 25% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theAUDUSD gets a reading of -1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to fall during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the USD, inflation favors the USD, unemployment favors the AUD and interest rates favor the USD
AShort
by Jury_P
2
GBPUSD SELLGBPUSD currently has a score of -2, or a Neutral rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theGBP has a long percentage of 33.47%, and we see that the USD has a long percentage of 76.24%. This category receives a -2, as institutional traders favor the USD. Taking a look at GBPUSD, we see that retail traders are 59% long, and 41% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theGBPUSD gets a reading of 0 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the USD, inflation favors the USD, unemployment favors none and interest rates favor the USD
GShort
by Jury_P
LINK vs QNT (BULLS IN A BEAR MARKET ANALOG STUDY)In the 2018 to 2019 bear market, Link was a strong performer, making new highs where other assets sank to new lows. I think QNT may perform similarly throughout 2022-2023. Already showing signs of strength vs BTC in the current bear market of 2022. Additionally it is a central player within the ISO 20022 narrative where the Fedwire Funds Service will be adopted on a single day, March 10, 2025. I expect that this date will mark the final wave up for QNT with divergence, given that it should be a 'sell the rumor' event. This also coincides with the estimated date when BTC should break out to all time highs, ushering in the insanity phase for all crypto assets. Similarly when BTC broke to all time highs in Dec 2020, this was the technical event that gave us the final push up in price for LINK, bringing it's long held title during the bear market to an end. I can foresee the break out of BTC being a selling event for any bear market out-performer, as the upside opportunity for those assets has been stretched far enough during a cycle that favored them. As soon as the opportunity to divest capital to the assets that have been beaten up and are waiting in the wings to ride BTC's coattails, money will naturally flow out and into the path of least resistance. A.K.A. Alt season.
BINANCE:QNTUSDLong
by benkoff
Getting ready for FOMCAll i can say is that we have to be patient at this point and we will take the trades as they come. We have to wait for powell to finish his speech and we will see if Santa is good or not. Otherwise than being patient there is literally not much to say about the markets. Crazy volatility during this period so if you intra day trade take your profits as you can be rountripped. My honest opinion is that 7.1% inflation in the US is still nowhere near 2% the Fed's target. We will definitely experience some crazy times, people are already calling the next bull run, but i think with higher rates the financial sector will perform poorly probably in q2-q3 2023. With bull runs you always get caught but i really do not think its a good time to hold stocks yet. The next bear leg will be brutal if we get it. Cheers and patience!
by Inorogu
CADCHF SELLCADCHF currently has a score of -4, or a Sell rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theCAD has a long percentage of 36.78%, and we see that the CHF has a long percentage of 9%. This category receives a 0, as institutional traders have no strongly favored asset. Taking a look at CADCHF, we see that retail traders are 96% long, and 4% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theCADCHF gets a reading of -1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to fall during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the CAD, inflation favors the CHF, unemployment favors the CHF and interest rates favor the CAD
CShort
by Jury_P
EURUSD BUYEURUSD currently has a score of 0, or a Neutral rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theEUR has a long percentage of 67.1%, and we see that the USD has a long percentage of 76.24%. This category receives a 0, as institutional traders have no strongly favored asset. Taking a look at EURUSD, we see that retail traders are 29.% long, and 71% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theEURUSD gets a reading of +1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the USD, inflation favors the USD, unemployment favors the USD and interest rates favor the USD
ELong
by Jury_P
FRACTAL: LTC Litecoin LOVES Decembers ⬆Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫 Historically, December is a bullish month for Litecoin, with the price often going parabolic and increasing more than 100 % ! Previously, 4 out of 5 Decembers, the price of LTCUSDT has increased exponentially. A quick look at a fractal that played out during 2020 from this exact support zone that we are currently trading on ($68) shows a whopping 168% increase. While you're here 👀 Here's a guide to risk reward ratios and how to setup the perfect position : _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
Long
by CryptoCheck-
54
Getting closer to FOMC - Market update 12th December Good morning everyone! Hope all is well. Not much changed for me in terms of where we are, we are patiently waiting for CPI tomorrow and FOMC on Wednesday. Probably this week will be my last trading week and return in January. Trading Christmas was never a good idea so this is a good time to review your performance over the year. Staying in cash is much better than losing it in wild swings that do not make sense... Take care and have a good week!
by Inorogu
6
CHFJPY BUYCHFJPY currently has a score of +5, or a Buy rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theCHF has a long percentage of 9%, and we see that the JPY has a long percentage of 20.84%. This category receives a 0, as institutional traders have no strongly favored asset. Taking a look at CHFJPY, we see that retail traders are 19% long, and 81% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theCHFJPY gets a reading of +1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -1. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the CHF, inflation favors the CHF, unemployment favors the CHF and interest rates favor the CHF
CLong
by Jury_P
EURUSD BUYEURUSD currently has a score of -1, or a Neutral rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theEUR has a long percentage of 67.1%, and we see that the USD has a long percentage of 76.24%. This category receives a 0, as institutional traders have no strongly favored asset. Taking a look at EURUSD, we see that retail traders are 51% long, and 49% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theEURUSD gets a reading of 0 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the USD, inflation favors the USD, unemployment favors the USD and interest rates favor the USD
ELong
by Jury_P
🟨 Bear Markets - History & AnalysisThe calculations use the S&P Dow Jones Indicies. "The past doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes" WHAT IS THIS IDEA It plots all Bear Markets from 1900 to present day and separating them with those who have coincided with Recessions and those who are independent of recessions Analyse the current Bear compared to previous precedents to determine the probability of the move of the general market HOW TO USE IT We can see that there is a clear correlations between the depth+length of the Bear market and the times we are in recession; We can see that IF there is no recession on the market than the current Bear is becoming quite mature (299 days vs 212 days average) and we can expect that we will not violate the current lows; If the economy is announced to have a technical recession, we will be likely go deeper and violate the lows (-31% vs 34.6%). LEGEND 🟢 Bear Markets without Recessions (avg. -25% Loss, 212 Days) 🔴 Bear Markets with Recessions (avg. -34.6% Loss, 353 Days) ⚫️ Current 2022 Bear Market (avg. -31.0% Loss, 299 Days)
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TintinTrading
5
AUDCHF SELLAUDCHF currently has a score of -4, or a Sell rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theAUD has a long percentage of 32.09%, and we see that the CHF has a long percentage of 9%. This category receives a 0, as institutional traders have no strongly favored asset. Taking a look at AUDCHF, we see that retail traders are 87% long, and 13% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theAUDCHF gets a reading of -1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to fall during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the AUD, inflation favors the CHF, unemployment favors the CHF and interest rates favor the AUD
AShort
by Jury_P