Bloated Bears on December..Monthly chart analysis show a bearish December bias on Natural Gas against USD. Since 2017, the pair has always been bearish in December, making this year 6th in a row!
Seasonality
GBPCHF BUYGBPCHF currently has a score of 0, or a Neutral rating after adding up all categories.
First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theGBP has a long percentage of 29.35%, and we see that the CHF has a long percentage of 8.64%. This category receives a 0, as institutional traders have no strongly favored asset.
Taking a look at GBPCHF, we see that retail traders are 32% long, and 68% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theGBPCHF gets a reading of +1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa.
Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to fall during this month.
Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2.
Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the CHF, inflation favors the CHF, unemployment favors the CHF and interest rates favor the GBP
GBPCHF TO 1.180+ IN DEC- RSA W1: GBP strong, CHF weakening
- COT: GBP buying longs AND selling shorts, CHF only selling shorts
- LVL: PMH & PWH at 1.1540, CQH at 1.1570, levels approached but not yet purged
- PP: MPP predicts MR2 = 1.1810
- TA: Price makes HH > HL since mid NOV
- PTRN: W + 1st push completed
- VOL: Volume preceeds price on H4, Price above QVWAP but BELOW MVWAP & WVWAP
- SEASONAL WARNING: GBP sideways in DEC, CHF bullish in DEC
NZDUSD BUYNZDUSD currently has a score of +5, or a Buy rating after adding up all categories.
First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theNZD has a long percentage of 44.09%, and we see that the USD has a long percentage of 75.06%. This category receives a -1, as institutional traders favor the USD.
Taking a look at NZDUSD, we see that retail traders are 28.% long, and 72% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theNZDUSD gets a reading of +1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa.
Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month.
Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2.
Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the USD, inflation favors the NZD, unemployment favors the NZD and interest rates favor the NZD
EURUSD BUYEURUSD currently has a score of -1, or a Neutral rating after adding up all categories.
First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theEUR has a long percentage of 66.98%, and we see that the USD has a long percentage of 75.06%. This category receives a 0, as institutional traders have no strongly favored asset.
Taking a look at EURUSD, we see that retail traders are 53% long, and 47% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theEURUSD gets a reading of 0 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa.
Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month.
Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2.
Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the USD, inflation favors the USD, unemployment favors the USD and interest rates favor the USD
EURNZD SELLEURNZD currently has a score of -7, or a Strong Sell rating after adding up all categories.
First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theEUR has a long percentage of 66.98%, and we see that the NZD has a long percentage of 44.09%. This category receives a +1, as institutional traders favor the EUR.
Taking a look at EURNZD, we see that retail traders are 72% long, and 28% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theEURNZD gets a reading of -1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa.
Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to fall during this month.
Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -2.
Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the NZD, inflation favors the NZD, unemployment favors the NZD and interest rates favor the NZD
Jade Lizard Trade Idea for 12/23 ExpirationJADE LIZARD TRADE IDEA.
The idea of a jade lizard is to sell an out of the money put below the price, and sell a call credit spread above the price. The premium from the short put needs to be sufficient to cover the max loss of the call credit spread. And in doing so, there is no risk to the upside (still have to close the trade however). This is a trade idea on the neutral-to-bullish spectrum. The rumor is that congress is going to pass more pro-grass legislation before the change-over in the house.
$16 Call 12/23 Exp Buy to Open
$15 Call 12/23 Exp Sell to Open
$11.5 Put 12/23 Exp Sell to Open
Credit $155.00.
Collateral $1,150.
It can take a long position Note that after breaking the first area above, you should save some of your profit.
AUDUSD || Going LONG || W9Going LONG || TF 4H
1) Series of HHs and HLs : UPTREND
2) Formation of Bullish Flag Pattern
3) AB=CD ,,, Point C retracement
close to 0.382 of Fab Level
4) Last 3 Years (19,20,21) December
was BULLISH for AUDUSD
5) Taking Entry on the formation of
Green Candles
6) R/R 2.5
FX:AUDUSD
Enphase Attempts a BreakoutEnphase Energy has quietly emerged as a market leader in 2022. Is it now ready for a final run into yearend?
Notice how the solar-energy stock made a series of higher lows since mid-October. Prices remained below roughly $320, a previous closing high from September. The result was an ascending triangle, which ENPH escaped on Friday. That could signal a continuation of its bullish trend.
Second, MACD has remained positive for over a month.
Third, ENPH briefly dropped below its 50-day simple moving average SMA in early November but quickly recovered. The retest may confirm buyers are willing to defend its uptrend.
Finally, TradeStation data shows ENPH is the fourth-best performing member of the S&P 500 this year. (It trails only fossil-fuel rivals Occidental Petroleum , Hess and Marathon Petroleum .) That could make some momentum traders look for window dressing.
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CLMT short 17.00-20.00We see weakness in CLMT, expect a short on a pullback in the sell zone at 17.00-20.00, with a stop-loss at 20.5. The stock has a good seasonality and we might see a very frequent price collapse in December, which coincides with the technical analysis.
EBS long 12.00-9.00$The price is approaching the strong level of $10.60, and there is already increased interest in this stock. This stock has been showing growth in December for many years, so it makes sense to consider buying in the $12.00-9.00 area, stop-loss at $8.5. The first target is $25, the second target is $35.
FIVN long 48.00-60.00We see good support of quite a strong level of 47.00. Taking into account the seasonality of this stock and not quite good volatility, you can buy in the 48-60 buy zone, with a stop at 46.00, the first target is 78.5, the second target is 104$
USDCHF SELLUSDCHF currently has a score of -2, or a Neutral rating after adding up all categories.
First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theUSD has a long percentage of 75.06%, and we see that the CHF has a long percentage of 8.64%. This category receives a +2, as institutional traders favor the USD.
Taking a look at USDCHF, we see that retail traders are 87% long, and 13% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theUSDCHF gets a reading of -1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa.
Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to fall during this month.
Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -2.
Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the USD, inflation favors the CHF, unemployment favors the CHF and interest rates favor the USD
NZDUSD BUYNZDUSD currently has a score of +5, or a Buy rating after adding up all categories.
First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theNZD has a long percentage of 44.09%, and we see that the USD has a long percentage of 75.06%. This category receives a -1, as institutional traders favor the USD.
Taking a look at NZDUSD, we see that retail traders are 21% long, and 79% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theNZDUSD gets a reading of +1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa.
Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month.
Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2.
Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the USD, inflation favors the NZD, unemployment favors the NZD and interest rates favor the NZD
AUDJPY BUYAUDJPY currently has a score of -2, or a Neutral rating after adding up all categories.
First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theAUD has a long percentage of 30.55%, and we see that the JPY has a long percentage of 22.75%. This category receives a 0, as institutional traders have no strongly favored asset.
Taking a look at AUDJPY, we see that retail traders are 63% long, and 37% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theAUDJPY gets a reading of -1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa.
Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month.
Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -2.
Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the AUD, inflation favors the JPY, unemployment favors the JPY and interest rates favor the AUD
EURGBP SELLEURGBP currently has a score of -2, or a Neutral rating after adding up all categories.
First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theEUR has a long percentage of 66.98%, and we see that the GBP has a long percentage of 29.35%. This category receives a +2, as institutional traders favor the EUR.
Taking a look at EURGBP, we see that retail traders are 71% long, and 29% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theEURGBP gets a reading of -1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa.
Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to fall during this month.
Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -2.
Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the EUR, inflation favors the EUR, unemployment favors the GBP and interest rates favor the GBP
BTCUSD - Bitcoin Cyclic AnalysisUnderstanding Bitcoin Trends
Bitcoin has maintained 2-year trend cycles as far back as it has been traded and the price ranges for each trend have shown consistent patterns. Here, I'll try my best to show what patterns we can find and how they might be helpful.
Bullish Cycles
Following the past cycles, we can expect the next bull run to show up around the first quarter of 2025.
During the 2020-22 bullish cycle, Bitcoin has shown what might seem explosive growth but as the chart shows, the price change has been shrinking every following cycle. This means that the growth rate, despite being incredibly high, is slowing. Due to this, we can confidently predict that the price change will likely not cross the previous threshold (1662% increase). We can look for the increase to be around 800-1000%, which might feel optimistic. But also consider that during every bull cycle, the price has broken the high of the previous bull cycle, which means that if it is to happen again during the 2024-26 cycle, the increase will at least be higher than 800%.
Bearish Cycles
We are currently in a bear run and it is not showing any signs of slowing down.
Bear cycles have maintained a consistent price change of about 83% for both past cycles. This means that the market is maintaining a recovery range for each of those cycles at around 80%. If we see the current 2022-24 bear cycle, the price is on its way to reaching that recovery range. We can expect the price to reach that range during the first quarter of 2023. The price will bounce from there to start the next bull cycle.
Thank you for reading. I hope this has been useful to you in some way.
I'd love to know your thoughts on this.
EURNZD SELLEURNZD currently has a score of -7, or a Strong Sell rating after adding up all categories.
First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theEUR has a long percentage of 66.98%, and we see that the NZD has a long percentage of 44.09%. This category receives a +1, as institutional traders favor the EUR.
Taking a look at EURNZD, we see that retail traders are 79% long, and 21% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theEURNZD gets a reading of -1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa.
Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to fall during this month.
Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -2.
Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the NZD, inflation favors the NZD, unemployment favors the NZD and interest rates favor the NZD
GBPCHF BUYGBPCHF currently has a score of 0, or a Neutral rating after adding up all categories.
First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theGBP has a long percentage of 29.35%, and we see that the CHF has a long percentage of 8.64%. This category receives a 0, as institutional traders have no strongly favored asset.
Taking a look at GBPCHF, we see that retail traders are 26% long, and 74% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theGBPCHF gets a reading of +1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa.
Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to fall during this month.
Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2.
Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the CHF, inflation favors the CHF, unemployment favors the CHF and interest rates favor the GBP
NZDCHF BUYNZDCHF currently has a score of +5, or a Buy rating after adding up all categories.
First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theNZD has a long percentage of 44.09%, and we see that the CHF has a long percentage of 8.64%. This category receives a +1, as institutional traders favor the CHF.
Taking a look at NZDCHF, we see that retail traders are 19% long, and 81% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theNZDCHF gets a reading of +1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa.
Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month.
Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2.
Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the NZD, inflation favors the CHF, unemployment favors the CHF and interest rates favor the NZD
NZDUSD BUYNZDCAD currently has a score of +6, or a Strong Buy rating after adding up all categories.
First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theNZD has a long percentage of 44.09%, and we see that the CAD has a long percentage of 40.67%. This category receives a 0, as institutional traders have no strongly favored asset.
Taking a look at NZDCAD, we see that retail traders are 3% long, and 97% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theNZDCAD gets a reading of +1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa.
Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month.
Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2.
Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the NZD, inflation favors the CAD, unemployment favors the NZD and interest rates favor the NZD
