Get started

Seasonality

AUDNZD SELLAUDNZD currently has a score of -9, or a Strong Sell rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theAUD has a long percentage of 30.55%, and we see that the NZD has a long percentage of 44.09%. This category receives a -1, as institutional traders favor the NZD. Taking a look at AUDNZD, we see that retail traders are 99% long, and 1% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theAUDNZD gets a reading of -1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to fall during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the NZD, inflation favors the NZD, unemployment favors the NZD and interest rates favor the NZD
AShort
by Jury_P
S&P HIGHER IN DEC WHILE USD WEAK + COT BULLISH- Seasonal: S&P is supposed to be strong in DEC - Seasonal: USD is supposed to be weak in DEC - Pattern: Q4 created a W + 1st push, 2nd push is to be expected after stophunt - Technical: Bullish break of Market Structure on the Daily in OCT - Efficiency: D1 overlapping Gaps + Imbalances offer support around 3900 and 4000 - S&D: Weekly Supply-zone at 4500 with Imbalances below it - COT: Asset Manangers accumulate longs and distribute shorts since OCT COT + SEASONALLITY VISUALISED: images2.imgbox.com
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by xtrader1
USDCAD SELLUSDCAD currently has a score of +3, or a Buy rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theUSD has a long percentage of 75.06%, and we see that the CAD has a long percentage of 40.67%. This category receives a +1, as institutional traders favor the USD. Taking a look at USDCAD, we see that retail traders are 50% long, and 50% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theUSDCAD gets a reading of 0 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -1. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the USD, inflation favors the CAD, unemployment favors the USD and interest rates favor the USD
UShort
by Jury_P
2
CHFJPY BUYCHFJPY currently has a score of +3, or a Buy rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theCHF has a long percentage of 10.44%, and we see that the JPY has a long percentage of 24.36%. This category receives a 0, as institutional traders have no strongly favored asset. Taking a look at CHFJPY, we see that retail traders are 52% long, and 48% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theCHFJPY gets a reading of 0 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the CHF, inflation favors the CHF, unemployment favors the CHF and interest rates favor the CHF
CLong
by Jury_P
Is It Time To Buy Stocks?Hello everyone, J.Powell said this week said smaller interest hikes could start in December 2022. Elon Musk said the FED has to pivot immediately, otherwise the more they wait, the more it amplifies the probability of a severe recession. Some indicators show the FED is going to increase the rates only one more time and then hit the pause button for a good part of 2023. Then maybe resume the interest rates cut. Then, we can wonder, is the bear market over? Is it time to buy stocks? Quick answer: Absolutely not Any fundamental trader (which I'm not) should notice that whenever the FED pivoted in the past, a stocks crash followed shortly after I'm going to say it one more time differently just to put my point across. FED pivoting IS NOT EQUAL to stocks pumping. In fact, FED PIVOT = STOCKS MARKET CRASH The image I copy/pasted on the chart is very telling. What will happen when the FED will pivot? Based on historical data, it's a dangerous time to be swing long without SL and never taking some profit out of the table. Mainstream media, Jim Cramer and Youtube finance influencers telling us to buy the dip ... should be concerning for traders being LONG. Anything could happen of course, but if I'd play the probabilities and if I'd be a Fundamental trader, I'd cut my SWING longs after the FED will pivot. Thank you and have a nice weekend Dave
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Daveatt
6
Short SPX planHello everyone, This is the plan for shorting SPX...I want to see a swing failed pattern before pulling any trigger. We might squeeze even higher at 4350 so i would be quite cautious at this point. The fed changed their tune so these things can tank, especially with a black swan like China reopening. If they reopen expect risk assets to rally very aggressive into year end. From a seasonality point of view SPX santa rally starts 21st Nov and "bottoms" in around mid december before ripping higher. We will take both trades(short confirmed by seasonality mid december) and long after. But we will see how it plays out. Careful managing risk during this volatility periods
U
by Inorogu
BTC - What December Holds HistoricallyHi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫 In today's analysis, we take a look at Bitcoin over Decembers from the past. Which direction does the price usually go, bullish or bearish ? It's no surprise that it seems to be a near equal amount of months up vs. down. Over the 11 months observed, we notice 6 green Decembers and 5 red Decembers. This makes probability near equal. However, we could take a look at a few other interesting observations: 💭 Highest increase for Bitcoin was +58.92% when the lowest decline was only -33.15% 💭 More often than not, two months of the same color follow 💭 The biggest yearly increase was during December 2012 - December 2013 with a whopping yearly increase of 9,899.19% 💭 The second biggest increase after that was from Dec 2016 - Dec 2017 with +2,681.15% 💭 The biggest yearly decline was from December 2017 - December 2018 with BTCUSD losing -84% The crypto winter that started in December 2018 was one of the worst yet... But with the industry under pressure, could this year be the new record? IF BTCUSDT were to drop to $11 000, that would be a -81% decline from last December. From all the above... Which way do you think the price will go during December 2022 ? _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptoCheck-
41
Are the bad days of crypto coming to an end? List good cryptos Almost 11 months ago, I suggested that if you haven't left the market yet, it's time to sell your cryptos. Some of my colleagues thought I was crazy, but some who were more experienced had realized the reality even earlier than me. "WE WERE IN EUPHORIA STAGE" As if crypto traders were drunk. With sincere thanks to @LewisGlasgow According to the idea I've published on tradingview.com I've sold my holding gradually and start to take more short positions than long ones! Now I believe we are around dip of the market! We have seen effect of halving before, I think it is going to work well for crypto holders in around 2 years. The only bad news is war! China threatens Taiwan! Islamic republic may attack Persian Gulf neighboring nations and the most important one is Putin invasion of Ukraine. I wish peace for the world and I also wish people stop crazy dictators soon but unfortunately this war seems to be continued. The other good sign is last super bearish week of BTC! Yeah you may be surprised but it's almost a good sign! Of course, this phenomenon is so rare that it cannot be a decision reference for the market, but it can help us to be more confident if we have the stronger reason to buy (Halving) . Just before 2019 and in early weeks of 2020 two super bearish weekly candles was observed under moving averages of 20 and 100! in those candles we see a net bearish move that was bigger than 1.5 times of AHL (20). by AHL (20) I meant average high-low of the last 20 weeks. We see a great bullish move after that! Those weeks were definitely dip of the market and traders never see the price like that till now! Right now! there are again a super bearish candle! It seems BTC like to take the last steps bigger. If market is going to be bullish, which cryptocurrencies do you recommend for hold? please comment. What do you think about these 6 ones! LEO XCN TWT OKB BNX GMX My suggestion is to start buying slowly, even if this scenario is true, the process of starting to climb may take up to a year. Also, don't forget that this is not a trading proposal and don't forget capital management and risk management. Only amateurs speak with 100 percent confidence in the market and there is always a possibility of failure of an idea.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by AliSignals
6
AUDNZD SELLAUDNZD currently has a score of -9, or a Strong Sell rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theAUD has a long percentage of 30.27%, and we see that the NZD has a long percentage of 43.94%. This category receives a -1, as institutional traders favor the NZD. Taking a look at AUDNZD, we see that retail traders are 96% long, and 4% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theAUDNZD gets a reading of -1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to fall during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the NZD, inflation favors the NZD, unemployment favors the NZD and interest rates favor the NZD
AShort
by Jury_P
NZDUSD BUYNZDUSD currently has a score of +5, or a Buy rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theNZD has a long percentage of 43.94%, and we see that the USD has a long percentage of 72.9%. This category receives a -1, as institutional traders favor the USD. Taking a look at NZDUSD, we see that retail traders are 21% long, and 79% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theNZDUSD gets a reading of +1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the USD, inflation favors the NZD, unemployment favors the NZD and interest rates favor the NZD
NLong
by Jury_P
USDCAD BUYUSDCAD currently has a score of +3, or a Buy rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theUSD has a long percentage of 72.9%, and we see that the CAD has a long percentage of 43.15%. This category receives a +1, as institutional traders favor the USD. Taking a look at USDCAD, we see that retail traders are 44% long, and 56% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theUSDCAD gets a reading of 0 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -1. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the USD, inflation favors the CAD, unemployment favors the USD and interest rates favor the USD
ULong
by Jury_P
AUDNZD SELLAUDNZD currently has a score of -9, or a Strong Sell rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theAUD has a long percentage of 30.27%, and we see that the NZD has a long percentage of 43.94%. This category receives a -1, as institutional traders favor the NZD. Taking a look at AUDNZD, we see that retail traders are 96% long, and 4% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theAUDNZD gets a reading of -1 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of -1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to fall during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -2. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the NZD, inflation favors the NZD, unemployment favors the NZD and interest rates favor the NZD
AShort
by Jury_P
1
USDCAD BUYUSDCAD currently has a score of +3, or a Buy rating after adding up all categories. First, let's look at what institutional traders are buying/selling. We can see that theUSD has a long percentage of 72.9%, and we see that the CAD has a long percentage of 43.15%. This category receives a +1, as institutional traders favor the USD. Taking a look at USDCAD, we see that retail traders are 49% long, and 51% short. We consider this information most useful when a market is at an extreme reading from retail traders. If the retail crowd is 60% or more positioned to one side, we get a +1 or -1. Currently, theUSDCAD gets a reading of 0 in this category. Remember, if the retail crowd is very long, we will look to short, and vice versa. Taking a look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise during this month. Trend reading is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Average. The more 'aligned' they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of -1. Finally, let's look at fundamentals. GDP growth favors the USD, inflation favors the CAD, unemployment favors the USD and interest rates favor the USD
ULong
by Jury_P
2