Get started

Seasonality

Bitcoin: Hodlers VS Cruisers VS TradersAnother very outside-the-box trend that I discovered while going down an INTOTHEBLOCK rabbit hole was the Holders' Composition by Time Held leading into the parabolic phase. These CRYPTOCAP:BTC Coin balances are a metric powered by INTOTHEBLOCK that shows ownership distribution over time. What is a Hodler Balance? They are address balances that have held CRYPTOCAP:BTC over a period of one year or longer. These are long-term investors. An increase in this metric shows long-term bullish sentiment. What is a Cruiser? They are address balances that have held CRYPTOCAP:BTC over a period of one - twelve months. These addresses are what we would consider swing traders. The transfer from Cruiser balance to Trader balance can be seen as bearish sentiment and the transfer from Trader to Cruiser can been seen as bullish sentiment. What is a Trader? They are address balances that have held CRYPTOCAP:BTC less than one month. These are short term balances of day traders, bot trading, etc. An increase in this metric would indicate volatility and a potential bearish sentiment in the market. With that being said about the Trader Balance, on 10/22/20 we can see a (+6%) uptick in Trader balances and a (-2%) down in Cruiser Balances showing investors taking profits and trading into the volatility. On 4/20/24, the Trader Balance crossed the Cruiser Balance solidifying this accumulation period. They started closing in on each other at the end of July, Post-Bitcoin Conference w/Trump speech + JPY reverse-carry trade unwinding + Mega Tech FC. Now they have returned the their early July numbers. KEY TAKEAWAY: You will see a flow into TRADERSBALANCE, out of CRUISERSBALANCE AND HODLERSBALANCE when the market has officially accepted we have entered the parabolic phase of this bull cycle. Look for a flow change and TRADERSBALANCE | CRUISERBALANCE cross between 10/8 & 10/22.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by RILOBUYLOW
Remember! Remember! The 5th of November!Thursday... the 5th of November 2020... CRYPTOCAP:BTC pumped nearly 7% in one day. We were 30ish days into the parabolic phase of the 3rd bull cycle for #Bitcoin. It was trading at $14,911. The holders had no idea that CRYPTOCAP:BTC would continue to climb an additional 335% over another 5 months, reaching a local ATH of $64,895 on April 14th 2021. Here we are on September 6th, 2024. CRYPTOCAP:BTC dropped to $52,546 or (-3.8%) for the day. Septembers are a sore subject when it comes to financial markets and Bitcoin in particular. Across the Post-Halving years, CRYPTOCAP:BTC will drop -2% historically. Considering CRYPTOCAP:BTC has tested local lows across the 5th and 6th of the last 3 months; July 5-6th low: $53,499 August 5-6th low: $49,050 September 5-6th low: $52,546 (so far) It is almost like someone is trolling the Holders... The focus of this chart is to consider the above and the following. Have we found our local bottom this early in September? ($52,546) How will Bitcoin react to the upcoming 25 bps Fed Rate cut? ($50,000 vs $60,000) Will our price position entering the parabolic phase affect the overall gains over the next 6 months? (90% vs 480%) Where will our new ATH fall next April/May? ($100,000 vs $305,000) Let me know how bearish or bullish you think the future of Bitcoin is.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by RILOBUYLOW
BITCOIN PARABOLIC PHASE INCOMING ‼️ BITCOIN PARABOLIC PHASE INCOMING ‼️ Confirmed $100k CRYPTOCAP:BTC by 2025. If TVC:GOLD walks away from this new ATH... It would confirm there is enough correlation to look further into a 49 month clock in the #GOLD & #Bitcoin Bull-Cycle. Theory is... #GOLD will start it's parabolic phase of its bull cycle, lasting 6 months and reaching a new ATH. There will be a 2 month "break" between both assets, sideways or slightly down. After the 2 month break, #Bitcoin will start it's parabolic phase of its bull cycle, also lasting 6 months. The two assets will go sideways and do their thing for 35 months before the 14 month parabolic dance starts all over. Cycle 1⃣: 02/01/2020 | TVC:GOLD | $1,587 08/01/2020 | TVC:GOLD | $2,049 +29% Change 10/01/2020 | CRYPTOCAP:BTC | $10,555 04/01/2021 | CRYPTOCAP:BTC | $58,732 +456% Change Cycle 2⃣: 03/01/24 | TVC:GOLD | $2,004 09/01/24 | TVC:GOLD | $2,555 +27% Change 11/01/24 | CRYPTOCAP:BTC | TBD 05/01/25 | CRYPTOCAP:BTC | TBD TBD% Change The TVC:GOLD trend lines match during the 6 month parabolic phases. 46 degree trend on the daily, both cycles. -31 degree trend on the daily, 8 months after ATH. ...If History repeats itself... CRYPTOCAP:BTC should stay sideways or down for the next 55 days. Most likely a fake-out pump coming from the pending Fed Rate cut this month. We should stay below FWB:65K based on the price action around the Jackson Hole speech. We would only need an 88% increase this phase for CRYPTOCAP:BTC to reach $100k. This is a small ask, considering the previous post-halving cycles. If it follows the same trend line up this cycle we could see $305k next April. As nice as that sounds, it is not very likely we will see a 456% gain this cycle.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by RILOBUYLOW
2
XIU / TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange)The TSX / XIU (ETF) is going down over the next 8 months, no doubt in my mind as a Canadian. Housing is not selling, starts are being cancelled / going bankrupt, we are over-populated and our infrastructure can not handle it. The rate decreases won't save our over-leveraged banks (real-estate, mostly residential, down 20% in many areas and still barely any buyers and many looking to exit - investors primarily). No way this holds these levels. I bought Feb 2025 $34 puts for $0.65 CAD. I expect this could be a ten bagger, especially if they finally admit Canada and USA and the world is in a massive recession. It is undeniable here. Foodbanks are empty and people are too strapped to donate (or are sick of seeing "students" from India eating "free food" meant for Canadians - many of whom are struggling). This stock price is a joke. Good luck to all!
TSX:XIUShort
by mraso30
3
BITCOIN in a LIVERMORE FunnelThe accumulation and distribution volume matches the positive and negative money flows of the first 5 waves in a Jesse Livermore stock cylinder. Will wave 6 see a rush of positive money flow into #Bitcoin into the end of the year? Let's see If it does then that will further cement this pattern of accumulation , sideways movement then breakout with continuation of buying power into the Bull market top. Let's observe this in real time shall we? Should be a fun few months ahead of us after a long period of churn. S/O to @arvine11 for bringing up the Livermore stock trend analysis.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by BallaJi
SOL Bottom BINANCE:SOLUSDT Based purely off technicals SOL looks to be bottomed or very close to one. 130 support 126 previous year (2023) high Solana bottomed after 8 straight down days on Aug 5th and has experienced the same just now Anytime Sol has suffered 5+ straight down days it has typically marked a local bottom or THE bottom 12H, 50 period MA speed showing a bottom Vertical blue lines marking extreme down days exhaustion. This MA speed (50 period on 12H) is a interesting RSI alternative and we are at the bottom bidding zone. - - - Right now Sol is heavily shorted yet price has simply come back to previous major support zone. There lies liquidity (Longs SL's) below the 110 wick from Aug 5th but hard to know if it wants to get left alone or retested. Lots of Liquidity is at 141, 146, and 164. Solana Breakpoint coming up on Sep 20th and will pique interest. Perhaps its a sell the news if we see any sort of rally in SOL. Key economic data coming early this month along with the start of rate cuts are key to watch. I will be looking for some bids soon but could take a while for any sort of major movement. All I see is a decent RR area right here.
Long
by bhx10
Downside Ahead For T Bonds - COT Strategy ShortDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT T Bonds (ZB) My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in ZB if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Small Specs most long they have been in 3 years = bearish. OI Analysis: Extreme high in OI. Generally, extremely high OI found at market tops. True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for t bonds to go down into October COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist & POIV Sell Signals Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by Tradius_Trades
Downside Ahead for Gold - COT Strategy SellDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT Gold (GC) My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in GC if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal Extreme Positioning: Most short Commercials have been since January 2021. Large specs longest they have been since March 2020. OI Analysis: Price upward consolidation since April has seen Commercials heavily selling = bearish. Large Specs at longest positioning since March 2020 = bearish. Valuation: Overvalued VS Treasuries True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for gold to go down in September Spread: Bearish spread divergence COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist, %R & Stochastic Sell Signals. Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
COMEX:GCZ2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
2
Upside Ahead for Crude Oil - COT Strategy LongDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy LONG Crude Oil (CL) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CL if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal OI Analysis: Down move since July and recent consolidation has seen CM's getting more long. Valuation: Undervalued VS GOld True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for oil to go up to mid October. Front Month Premium: Front month delivery contracts selling at premium to further out contracts. This is bullish, and is a sign that we could see a commercially driven bull move. COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist Buy Signal Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside. Good luck & good trading.
NYMEX:CLV2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
Upside Ahead for Mexican Peso - COT Strategy LongDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy LONG Mexican Peso (6M) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in 6M if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal Extreme Positioning: Commercials most long they've been since March 2023 = bullish. OI Analysis: Down move since May has seen Commercials adding to long positioning, which is bullish. Small Specs are at an extreme in short positioning. Also, OI is at its lowest level since 2022, generally low OI is found at bottoms. Sentiment: Bearish advisor sentiment is a contrarian signal which we look to fade. Valuation: Undervalued vs Treasuries & Gold ADX: Paunch forming (but not yet confirmed). True Seasonal: General grind up to mid September COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist, POIV, %R Buy Signals Remember, this is not a "Buy Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
CME:6MU2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
6
Downside Ahead for JPY - COT Strategy Sell DISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT JPY (6J) My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6J if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal Extreme Positioning: Commercials at extreme in long positioning, most long since 2021. Small Specs at extreme in long positioning, most long since 2021. All this is bearish. Valuation: Overvalued VS Treasuries & Gold OI Analysis: Upmove since July has seen CM's quickly shift to strong short position = bearish. True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for this currency to go down into October. COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist, POIV & Stochastic Sell Signals Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
CME:6JU2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
Downside Ahead for Aussie - COT Strategy Short DISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT Australian Dollar (6A) My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6A if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal OI Analysis: Last 3 weeks of price rally has seen OI increasing while the CM's have been getting out of their longs. This is bearish. ADX: Pinch forming. Valuation: Overvalued VS Treasuries True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for this currency to go down to early October. COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal Supplementary Indicators: POIV, %R & Stochastic Sell Signals Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
CME:6AU2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
Russell 2000 - COT Based Strategy Suggests Downside AheadDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT Russell 2000 (RTY) My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in RTY if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal Valuation: Overvalued VS Treasuries True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for equities to go down in September COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal Supplementary Indicators: POIV & UO Sell Signals Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
CME_MINI:RTYU2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
ETH 2400 - 2000So ETH broke down. Send it lower. Found some interesting areas of interest using the OHL (open, high, low) this year and previous years. There is a strong interest zone between 2400 and 2000. Found lots of confluence. Yearly open marked by red line with the yearly highs and lows marked in black. 1. Yearly open at 2282 2. Yearly low at 2095 3. 2023 yearly high at 2447 4. April 2023 high point (orange arrow) similar point to the yearly low at 2095 5. Price coming below the 200d MA and 52W ma 6. Aug - Oct timeframe seasonality 7. Similar chart setup as last year I'm not an ETH bull anymore but I think this chart here shows a good longer term setup. The 4th year in the cycle is typically the strongest and I expect this time to NOT be different. Can also see how the 2022 yearly high and open at 3800 act as strong resistance thus far in 2024. They're really gonna let us run it back again muahaha.
CRYPTO:ETHUSD
by bhx10
XAUUSD NFP!? Gold has been consolidating for the past few days and I'm led to believe it is waiting for a catalyst to actual breakout from the consolidation. As we are headed into a new month I do think we will need to see the performance of the US economy and other countries as well to get a clear confirmation on the next big move on Gold, the DXY was showing good retracement which i led to believe is from the PCE number and also Earnings from Nvidia. There's a lot to be said, this is a bit long now, so my area of interest is still 2460-2400 looking to go long if these areas hold up well then i'd definitely love to be long.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by mr_mat_sa
Yield Curve De-Inverting: A Bearish September IndicatorFlying under the radar for much of this month is the spread between the yield on the US 2-year Treasury note and the 10-year note. The gap is now just five basis points, having traded at negative 0.5ppt as recently as June 25. As we enter September, notoriously the worst month on the calendar for the S&P 500, if we see short rates continue to fall while the 10-year holds steady, I assert that it would be a bearish indicator for the S&P 500. Here’s how it might play out: if we see a weak payroll report on Friday, September 6, then chances are bad news will be seen as bad news, resulting in a flight to safety in the Treasury market. Of course, intermediate-term notes could see significant upside pressure, leading to a drop in the 10-year. The next key report following the August NFP update is the CPI report later in September. After today’s in-line PCE numbers, there should be a firm beat on where inflation stands. Now that earnings season is over, the focus will turn back to the macro. Considering that the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index remains sharply in the red, we need to see better economic data to help support the growth narrative looking ahead. Sure, the Q2 second update on US real GDP growth was solid, and the Q3 tracking numbers are sanguine, but the market will be forward-looking. So, keep your eye on the 2s10s spread—a yield curve disinversion during this spooky seasonal stretch could bring about volatility.
TVC:US10YShort
by mikezaccardi