DELL Buy Scenario with helping 0.618 retracement - price moved up recently
- now retraced to the 0.618 fib
- my calendar says: 31th or march is a strong starting point for a high properbility upmove
maybe you wanna find your entry soon on some criteria you know, understand and learnt to trade?
let ' s discuss and feel free to hit that rocket symbol and leave a comment. this way it is more fun.
cheers!
Seasonality
Here's Why I'm Bullish on TSLA: Smart Money is Buying...Here's Why I'm Bullish on NASDAQ:TSLA Multi-Timeframe Analysis Using Larry Williams' Methods
After a significant downtrend, NASDAQ:TSLA is presenting multiple bullish signals based on Larry Williams' methodology. The weekly and daily timeframes are aligning for a potential reversal opportunity with clearly defined risk parameters.
Weekly Timeframe Analysis
The weekly chart reveals several key bullish indicators:
- The COT Proxy Index shows commercials are buying at significantly higher levels compared to 6 months ago, 1 year ago, and 3 years ago.
- Seasonality patterns have reached a turning point, now indicating the beginning of an uptrend phase
- The WillVal indicator shows NASDAQ:TSLA is currently undervalued at multiple securities (DXY, QCCH, ZBLU all showing "Under")
- ADX reading above 60 (currently at 62.42) signals the existing downtrend is likely exhausting and nearing completion
Daily Timeframe Analysis
On the daily chart, we're seeing initial confirmation signals but still waiting for the optimal entry setup:
- The general market has created a Rally Day, and we're now watching for a Follow Through Day to confirm the new uptrend
- Price structure requires further confirmation through a change of character before entry
- The ProGo indicator has already turned positive, providing an early bullish signal
- Williams %R is showing oversold conditions, suggesting a potential bounce
- We need the Large Traders index to turn its slope upward for additional confirmation
Entry Strategy
I'm looking for one of these entry triggers:
- Primary : First pullback after change of character , using Williams %R for precise timing
- Alternative : Entry on first pullback after price moves above the WillTrend line
- Aggressive option : Entry if price breaks above the $245 resistance level
Profit Targets & Risk Management
Targets:
- First target: $327 (1.27 Fibonacci level)
- Second target: $390 (Larry Williams Target Shooter -> 2.00 Fibonacci level )
Risk Management:
- Initial stop loss: $228 or 120% of ATR(3) from entry point
- Once in profit, trailing stop based on price closes at WillTrend levels
The confluence of indicators across timeframes suggests a significant reversal potential in NASDAQ:TSLA , but waiting for daily chart confirmation will provide a higher probability setup with clearly defined risk parameters.
DISCLAIMER
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. The ideas and strategies presented should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation. This content is not financial advice and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or to engage in any specific investment strategy. All investment carries risk, including the possibility of losing some or all of your initial investment. Past performance of securities, including the patterns, signals, and indicators discussed, is not indicative of future results. The author does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information presented. Each investor should conduct their own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions. Trading Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) stock involves significant risks that may not be appropriate for all investors. You should only invest funds that you can afford to lose.
The XRP Bull Run Starts Today (XRP to 3 Digits)XRP is following it's 2017 pattern very closely and it looks like it's about to turn around.
The resemblances between March 2017 and March 2025 are numerous. Should the 2017 pattern hold, we might expect XRP to reach double-digit levels in April, approach triple digits in late May or June, and peak in late 2025 or very early 2026.
Both macro and micro factors indicate that a significant bull run is around the corner.
P.S. I view the November surge as merely the release of regulatory pressure that had been suppressing XRP, allowing it to return to the level it might have achieved without such constraints.
MSTU Long term retiring ideaThe MSTU ETF offers double exposition to the ticker IG:NASDAQ MSTR, now called Strategy, and this year many call a greater bull run on Crypto assets. I have done myself a mathematical model which gave me the conclusion similar to what Michael Saylor thinks:
I think I'm going to retire on the MSTU ETF, considering it 0.35 of my Portfolio and adding into it.
For the short term, consider buying on a strong support using an ATR (Average True Range) Indicator which tells you where to buy, and considering the support on a high historical trading activity with Market Profile terminology. Not bad for doing DCA at the swing lows formed.
Not financial advice!
Why Going Long on SoFi Stock SoFi Technologies (SOFI) is at a pivotal moment, presenting a strong long opportunity as it enters the 5th wave of an Elliott Wave cycle. This final leg typically brings explosive upside momentum, signaling a potential breakout.
While a brief dip below $10 is possible, this could act as a springboard for a powerful rally toward $20 and beyond. The stock's bullish structure, combined with SoFi's growing financial services business, makes it an attractive bet for long-term investors.
With momentum building, now may be the perfect time to go long on SoFi before the next surge begins.
🚨 This is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence (DD) before making any investment decisions. 🚨
"Bitcoin's Bullish Reversal: Projected Pullback Before Surging TBitcoin has begun a downward trend from March 24th that could last 49 days, with a projected low near $75,000. This area may offer a strong entry point for swing traders aiming for the next leg up. If support holds, BTC could rally over the following 149 days toward a profit target of $154,000 — a potential 100%+ gain. Traders considering this move should watch for signs of reversal near $75K and manage risk with a stop loss just below $70,000 to protect against deeper downside.
GBPCAD Bearish BiasFundamentals:
Valuation:
British Pound is heavily overvalued VS CAD
on 13d - 30d
We can see that on 10d it moved from
Overvalued the day it mitigated the supply
zone marked. 11/03/2025
Seasonality:
Showed that the Top was last week - CHECK
Shows a potential downtrend until Mid May
(On 15y seasonality)
We know that GBPUSD is in supply on weekly TF too
Therefore, we can expect a bearish move on GBPCAD
USDJPY Buy Setup – Breakout Confirmation & Seasonal TailwindTechnical: USDJPY has broken above a downtrend resistance line after finding support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 146.95 . This breakout suggests the corrective phase may have ended, signaling potential for further upside. Pullbacks toward 149.70 (a retest of the broken trendline) present an attractive entry opportunity. Upside targets are 152.74 and 157.10 in the short to medium term. The setup is invalidated below 147.97 , with a break below 146.33 negating further bullish expectations.
Fundamental: Commercial selling of the Japanese Yen and renewed dollar purchases indicate a shift favoring USD over JPY, supporting the bullish technical outlook.
Seasonal: Over the past 25 years , USDJPY has risen 76% of the time between March 25 – April 8 , with an average gain of 1.04% .
Trade Idea:
Entry: On pullbacks toward 149.70
Stop Loss: 147.97 (or 146.33 for extended risk management)
Targets: 152.74 and 157.10
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
ETH’s Secret Pattern Exposed! Why Is No One Talking About This ?Hello Traders 🐺
When I opened the ETH chart today and switched to the weekly timeframe, I saw something unbelievable with my own eyes! 🤯 That’s why I decided to share it with you, my friends. I truly believe there’s a very high chance for ETH to explode to a new ATH! Let’s break it down:
Why am I still bullish and not talking about anything bearish these days? 🤔
✅ The BTC.D Chart – The Most Important Factor
BTC.D is sitting at its most critical resistance level. Not just one, but two bearish divergences have already formed on the weekly chart, signaling a potential reversal. I will also update my last idea about BTC.D, so make sure to follow me for upcoming updates! 🔔🔥
Other Reasons to Stay Bullish on ETH & Altcoins 💎
📉 Weak hands are leaving the market
💰 Inflation is falling, which means we could see rate cuts very soon
🏦 Quantitative Tightening (QT) is ending soon
🇨🇳 China is printing money, and the FED will likely turn the printers back on
📍 ETH/BTC is sitting at a key monthly demand area
📊 Binance has increased its ETH holdings by over $600 million just this week!
These are the reasons why I remain extremely bullish on ETH and Altcoins. And now, let’s dive into the ETH chart—because that’s exactly why you’re here!
ETH’s Repeating Pattern – A Bullish Setup! 🔄🔥
As you can see on the chart, ETH has a history of repeating the same pattern over and over again. 🌀 Back in 2020-2021, before the massive ETH & Altcoin rally, we saw a huge weak hands shakeout. Just before the shakeout, everyone thought ETH had formed a double bottom and was ready to fly—but then BOOM! 💥 A huge shakeout happened, followed by a rally to new all-time highs. 🚀
Now, the same pattern is unfolding again! We have an Inverse Head & Shoulders, which is a bullish pattern. Then, we saw a massive shakeout just below the previous low, causing a bullish divergence on RSI—and now, things are starting to change! 🔥📈
✅ Make sure to act accordingly, my friends!
🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
The Reality of Bitcoin HODL. The odds of 100k AGAINLet's break down this CRYPTOCOM:BTCUSD BTCUSD chart and discuss the potential scenarios for 2025, considering current world economic conditions.
**Chart Analysis:**
* **Timeframe:** Daily (1D) chart, showing price action from early 2024 to March 2025.
* **Key Levels:**
* **Resistance:** $109,590 (recent high), $100,000 (psychological level).
* **Support:** $80,000 (recent low), $72,000 (previous consolidation), $68,000 (strong support zone).
* **Price Action:**
* **2024:** A period of consolidation and accumulation, with a clear upward trendline from May to November. This suggests growing bullish momentum.
* **Late 2024/Early 2025:** A significant rally, pushing BTC above $100,000 and reaching the $109,590 high.
* **Recent Correction:** A sharp pullback from the highs, indicating profit-taking and potential trend reversal. The price is currently hovering around $86,000.
* **Grey Box:** A highlighted area around $80,000 - $88,000, which represents a key support zone.
**Most Likely Scenario for 2025 (Given Current World Economic Conditions):**
**Current World Economic Conditions (Considerations):**
* **Inflation:** Persistently high inflation in many countries is a major concern. Bitcoin is often seen as a hedge against inflation.
* **Interest Rates:** Central banks are raising interest rates to combat inflation, which can negatively impact risk assets like Bitcoin.
* **Geopolitical Uncertainty:** Ongoing conflicts and tensions create market volatility and uncertainty.
* **Regulatory Landscape:** The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is still evolving, with potential for both positive and negative developments.
* **Economic Slowdown/Recession:** Growing concerns about a global economic slowdown or recession.
**Scenario:** **Range-Bound Trading with Potential for Further Correction**
Given the current economic climate, the most likely scenario for 2025 is a period of range-bound trading for Bitcoin, with potential for further downside correction. Here's why:
* **Uncertainty and Risk Aversion:** Economic uncertainty and rising interest rates make investors more risk-averse, reducing demand for volatile assets like Bitcoin.
* **Technical Indicators:** The recent sharp pullback suggests a potential trend reversal. The $80,000 support level is crucial. A break below this level could trigger further selling pressure.
* **Inflation Hedge Narrative:** While Bitcoin is seen as an inflation hedge, its correlation with traditional markets has increased in recent times, making it susceptible to broader market sentiment.
**Buy/Sell Recommendations (General Guidance):**
* **Long-Term Investors:** If you're a long-term investor with a high-risk tolerance, consider dollar-cost averaging (DCA) into Bitcoin during periods of weakness. The $72,000 and $68,000 levels could provide attractive entry points.
* **Short-Term Traders:** Short-term traders should exercise caution and wait for clear signs of a trend reversal before entering long positions. Look for confirmation signals like a break above key resistance levels with strong volume.
* **Risk Management:** Always use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
**Important Notes:**
* **This analysis is based on the provided chart and general economic conditions. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and unpredictable.**
* **Do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.**
* **Keep an eye on key economic indicators, regulatory developments, and market sentiment.**
**In conclusion, while Bitcoin has shown strong bullish momentum in the past, the current economic climate suggests a more cautious approach. Expect range-bound trading with potential for further correction in 2025.**
My Daily $NGAS / $NG1! Idea Because of Absent Seasonal WeaknessSeasonal weakness in FX:NGAS / NYMEX:NG1! is absent so far but it could come into play if war-related concerns are fading with Putin and Ukraine set under "friendly pressure" to end this war.
Still, the gap between ending heating period and beginning demand for cooling is big enough to see a seasonal weakness period, imo.
It's just an idea. As always, do your own research. You are solely responsible for your trades.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations
The Fed Cuts Balance Sheet Runoff by 80% - BULLISH!RISK-ON 🚨
I’m seeing so many people incorrectly analyzing the September 2019 emergency repo OMOs, which were short-term liquidity injections from the Fed, and then comparing it to the price of BTC going down, before QE officially started in March 2020 because of the pandemic.
Here’s what really happened.
September 15, 2019 was a tax deadline, pulling ~$100B out of markets as large corporations paid the IRS and funds flew into the TGA.
Meanwhile, the Treasury issued new T-Bills to rebuild cash reserves following the post-debt ceiling resolution in August, draining another $50-100B as big banks and institutions absorbed the securities.
During this time, the Fed continued reducing its balance sheet (QT) down to $3.76T, but the balance sheet did not leave enough slack for unexpected cash drains to the system, such as corporate taxes and Treasury issuance.
Unfortunately, the Fed was flying blind and did not have a hard number estimate for “ample reserves” in the banking system.
These reserves were largely hoarded by a few of the larger banking institutions due to Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) rules and a higher IOER at 2.1% vs the ON RRP rate of 1.7% - a 40 bp spread.
This caused a liquidity crisis in the US repo market because bank reserves held at the Fed ($1.36T) were too low and repo lending dried up. Banks weren’t able to access each other’s reserves to fund daily operations.
SOUND FAMILIAR !?
The US just resolved its CR to avoid a government shutdown, and they will be refilling the TGA by issuing new T-Bills. The reverse repo facility is also nearly drained.
Today, we heard the Fed will be reducing its securities runoff from $25B - SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:5B on April 1st, an 80% adjustment.
One of the main drivers is they wanted to get ahead of another 2019-style repo crisis (although they won’t say this), rather than being reactive and having to perform emergency OMOs once again.
Now to go back to my original point with people saying the Fed reducing its balance sheet runoff is a big nothingburger based on BTC price action in 2019.
BTC dumped because of the repo crisis, NOT because markets needed QE.
By early 2020, the liquidity crisis was resolved, and BTC pumped ~45% before the pandemic hit in March and nuked the chart.
Proof is in the pudding - just look at the 2017 bull market.
QT started in October 2017, and the market ripped until early 2018.
The Fed reducing its balance sheet runoff by 80% is definitely a signal of risk-on for educated market participants, as it leaves more reserves in the financial system, which gives banks more liquidity to loan the market.
i.e. M2 go up.
But keep listening to your favorite large accounts who are all of a sudden macro gurus, what do I know 🤓
USDCAD Short Setup – Potential Top Formation & Seasonal WeaknessTechnical: USDCAD has stalled in recent weeks, signaling a potential topping pattern. A recent break of the short-term trend suggests a deeper correction may follow. Key resistance is at 1.4355 , offering a favourable risk-reward short opportunity.
Fundamental: The U.S. dollar remains weak, with commercial participants showing little interest in buying. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar is seeing increased accumulation, indicating a potential shift in momentum.
Seasonal: Historically, from March 24 – April 30 , USDCAD has declined 76.2% of the time over the past 21 years, with an average drop of 1.30%.
Trade Idea:
Sell: 1.4355
Stop Loss: 1.4551
Target: 1.3948
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.