Buyside taken, sellside pendingYou can see price taking out significant buyside liquidity with sellside being built up. It shouldn't take too long to start digging into the trendline.
Seasonality
Maersk daily pitchfork bottomSo many touches and measured moves fitting in this pitchfork makes me believe it might stay important. Maersk could be hitting the bottom line from the minor pitchfork and the bigger one at the same time, which is in the area of the "flip" zone and right shoulder of a possible inverted SHS. This would end up being a swing down of approximately 3300 DKK and Maersk swing sizes often range from 2700 to 3700 DKK. We have a range (possible accumulation) on the weekly chart with price expansion, so I wouldn't be surprised if it goes lower. If that ends up being the case, I'll go long when price break above the zone again. We might also be "close" to the end of the bearish cycle judging from the last two full cycles on the monthly chart, but that is a rough estimate and it could stay bearish for another couple of years.
I'll properly go in gradually and watch how price/volume evolves in this area. There's some old important lines coming in a bit lower, so I won't be having a fixed stop from the get go. I'd rather go in small and buy more from lower time frame setups. No mather what, I'm pretty keen on building a long term position down here.
HTF Fibonacci Plotting the Fibonacci sequence in multiple fractals (0-144), within the calendar year from the Monthly chart.
Also shown are Fibonacci Gann Box's for the year, plotted 0-144 of their respective Fibonacci sequence.
July Seasonal Long Copper HG1!: Seeking Gap & clean highs-We retraced down to 50% of the 2024 up leg, finding support.
-We neatly found support at the Volume imbalance W and the midpoint of the Fair value gap M, circa 50% of said 2024 up leg.
-July has a strong bullish seasonal tendency.
~The plan would be to take partials (half off) in the gap (FVG- fair value gap) circa 4.75; and move stop-loss up to trailing.
~If this runs up hard & fast, ideal target would be the high time frame clean highs 5.24
~Timestop: End of July marks end of seasonal bull, so depending on the price action context, i'd be inclined to close the trade as we enter into August.
~If this proves bearish and i'm wrong, I would close the entire position if we come any lower than a mere peep below the late June low; stop-loss would be at 4.31
**B-ADJ toggled ON; SET toggled OFF.
**Just an idea for paper trading purposes, not financial advice.
Signs of strength for AMDAMD has been a laggard in the semiconductor space. However, since the bear market low it's been in a clear bull trend despite being outshined by NVDA.
It's discernible that AMD may have some cyclicality in its price action.
For the first 256 trading days from the 2022 low AMD found a high on day 161 and went into a bear trend until day 256. We are currently on day 164 since that last low. Originally I believed we topped early and would form a new low around day 256 like the last period.
AMD not rolling over back to 140 forming a base is a sign of strength. Who doesn't love a good catch up trade.
Aug 16 180C.
Invalidation is if we drop below 160.
BTC : CurvesHere is a cyclic curve lattice used to identify historical and future support/resistance levels that can assist us with our trades.
The chart is unraveled on the 4 week time interval and the logarithmic price scale.
Every historical curve shows at least one critical price action reaction.
Here are the most important, all but one relating to candle wicks...
Green curve price action reactions :
Red curve price action reactions :
Future cycles are carefully estimated using Fibonacci measurements.
Finally, thank you to my followers and to those who enjoyed viewing this idea.
Feel free to give it a boost if you like it.
// Durbtrade
June seasonality pivot approachingOne of my big technical analysis passions is time analysis and time cycles, and I tend to follow them closely. Some of these are very helpful when in combination with other TA, to find reversal points at any given time frame, even though I don't do intraday trading, so I focus on big swings, though bigger time frames.
Bitcoin's periodicity is remarkable, and we can generally find important pivots points during seasonality shifts. One of these season shifts occur in June and has been occurring for the last few years, marking the start of important swings. This seasonality shift is generally very powerful and has the power to mess with some other lower time frame cycles, such as the 60 day cycle, so at this specific time of the year we should expect some LTF cycle non-sense. This seasonality pivot is expected around mid June, so a lower low is expected around that time.
Around the seasonality pivot we can look for price targets with other techniques. Past 45º trendlines, and Elliot wave theory targets are some of my favourite ways to find support levels. As of now, my pivot projection lies at mid June within the 50-55k range. More accurate EW targets can be determined once the current high is confirmed.
Bitcoin tracking of the beast!By adding the arches for perspective makes similar to a bollinger band, bitcoin appears to be following a fractal pattern close to 2015 but stretched out over a longer time period. Cycles within cycles the micro forming the macro fractal. Observe the bar pattern simularities. Now it forms and finishes off its pattern with a the smoother climb up and out over time as seen with 2017's bull run.
$BTC Summer '24 rhymes with Summer '23 - despite FUD, NEWSQuick CRYPTOCAP:BTC price action on the weekly chart. Technically speaking, we're looking to set a local low. Fundamentally, we are suffering from FUD around Mt. GOX coins and other institutional holders, like Germany. It’s only a few days worth of aggregate volume but the specter of a dump is spooking the market and encouraging the bulls to wait.
To me, despite all the news, we look very similar to the March-October period of last year, where it took 3 attempts and establishing 25K as floor price, before finally breaking through the strategic $30k level. This summer, we're likely to see a similar movement play out, establishing $50k as a floor before ultimately breaking above the strategic price of $70k. Perhaps in an inverse head and shoulders fashion.
Update Tesla stock after profit takingWith this idea, we can easily see the confirmation for a breakout in the weekly frame, which is usually true when the price has passed through the boundary of the second butterfly wing according to this butterfly pattern.
In addition, I have a profit taking level according to this model combined with a 4-year cycle.
Good lucky.!!
Update plan with TeslaUpdate plan with Tesla
Tesla stock has touched the daily line which is good support, however you need to consider taking partial profits when the price hits the price holding zone that is eventually broken down which is also the horizontal resistance level. In case the price continues to break out of that horizontal range, we will continue to hold the order. On the contrary, if the price does not break through, we wait to buy in the demand area 128-122 and hold the order until the end of June and the end of July.
Good lucky !!!
$BTC Summer Gets Decided in the Next 30 Minutes!Bitcoin Bulls have 30 minutes til the Weekly close
Closing below the bullish trendline confirms the 10% downwards move to retest $50,5
RSI shows room for more downward pressure ahead w/ the close below the Bull Market Support Band
If $50,5 doesn’t hold, it will be a 20% dump to retest $45k
Or 30% to $38,5
As mentioned prior,
CRYPTOCAP:BTC will range these levels til September.
NOW is the time to allocate accordingly.
A new Crypto Bullmarket HAS already started.... When talking about Bitcoin or Crypto in general you usually will hear something like this from Traders/Investors that are bullish on Bitcoin: The Bitcoin halving every 4 years initiates a new bull market. By that logic a new Crypto bullmarket should start in late April of 2024, when the next halving is due, right? However, if I look at the price behaviour of Bitcoin prior to its last 2 halvings (2016 and 2020) I can clearly see that the actual bull market started 18 months prior to those halvings. Projecting this to the 2024 Bitcoin halving it would mean that a new bull market HAS already started as the markets bottom should have been end of October 2022 at around 18-20k... yes, we went still lower than that thanks to FTX, but up to now this theory still passes the test of time.
Another thing that, in my opinion, is aligning up perfectly: The FED interest rate cycle.... after now having higher interest rates (5.25 %) than the YoY US inflation (4.9 %) we should see interest rates staying stable (maybe there is 1 more hike coming in June 2023).... looking back in history after about 8-15 months the FED usually started lowering the interest rates again, which then initiated a shift from risk off assets to risk on assets (stocks & crypto). The shift back to a cycle of lowering interest rates will fall nicely together with the Bitcoin halving of 2024 and will probably fuel the bull market additionally.
Update plan gold nonfarm and in JulyIt is forecasted that there will soon be a bullish phase when all signals break for the uptrend. In my opinion, that is a bullish trap.
Please stick to the sell-off scenarios according to the price arrow I draw, every scenario has a stop loss level, don't expect too much from forcing and letting loose stop loss orders in this non-agricultural news for orders. buy. According to my experience, today or before news of gold release, there will be a strong sale, good luck to traders.
Please see updates for other ideas as well.
Bitcoin establishes new support level around previous ATH closeMany people have been losing sleep over the Bitcoin price action so I wanted to provide some technical analysis to show where we're possibly headed. I have a theory with data to back it up. If history repeats itself I believe Bitcoin has established a new baseline support level around $55k.
If you take a look at the Bitcoin chart on an 8-week time interval going all the way back to 2015, you can see every new all time high has a similar period of around 3 years of retracing back to the same level, before breaking through it again. Then after breaking the previous all time high, a new support level is established and price doesn't drop below the newly established support level. On this 8-week chart the previous all time high candle didn't close above $55k in August 2021. So, we have had almost 3 years of retracing back to this level and finally broke through it in Feb 2024. If my theory is true and history repeats itself, I don't believe we will see Bitcoin fall below $55k as this has become the new baseline support level.
*Of course, I could be wrong. Just a theory, not financial advice.
Bitcoin Log Regression 👀#Bitcoin Log Regression 👀
The orange line, as in the previous cycle, offers strong resistance.
💡I think CRYPTOCAP:BTC will stay at the current mark for another month. After that, we go to the correction, most likely it will not be a deep correction, but rather a consolidation.
This is indicated by overbought and seasonality.
⛏️ And also the capitulation of miners after the halving is possible, this will lead to a decrease in the hashrate, which will slow down the growth for some time. But do not be sad, the bull market will continue closer to autumn↗️
BITCOIN targets, rally, bottom and top perdition for 2024Every July 4th I put out price predictions of BTC, where we are, where we will go, rallies we will have along with bottoms and tops. I use fib levels + order books + Political agenda + social response with human behavior that is way too easy to predict. For you who follow me, you have seen my accuracy and as I said 50k was always in play, I now move that to 40k-45k for a bottom and a Jan-Feb top of 85K-90K and I do think that's the bull run top. Something big must happen to change my mind on that, so far all the big 100k+ numbers are just dreams, Nothing backs it up. Market and interest in crypto are still not where they need to be for me to justify over 100K, but as I said, something big would and could happen to make that come true. I'm just not willing to put my money on it yet. I'm not paid or influenced by corporations or anyone to say all that pump talk you see on social media platforms including Trading View. Yes, we are in a bull market, yes we are finishing the 1st of 2 waves for the bull run, and yes we will go back up and top in 1st Qrt 2025, yes that will be the start of the bear market. And yes We can go lower than 40k and yes I could be wrong, but I bet I'm not. Do your homework and research. I don't trust others with my wealth and neither should you. Happy Independence Day USA.
BTC: New Short-term bullish channelLong-term Fibo channel is clear here!
There might be a reversal
Regarding the mid-term channel a bearish trendline is broken
A new short-term channel which is tradable could be formed.
Short-term traders could take profit around the zone. But I think we should hold out cryptos till January.
read the related ideas see my reasons for that
XRP/USD Main trendMain trend. Logarithmic chart. Timeframe 1 month. Channel. Triangle.
This time frame to understand the direction of the trend and where the area to trade is now.
Found the chart with the longest trading history, which displays the main trend.
Coinmarketcap: XRP
Same parameters, but on a line chart.
CONY - Buy/Hold/DCA through Crypto Bull Cycle - 100%+ dividendI continue to load up on shares whenever we get into the buy zones. I also hold COIN. Both are holds for me through the BULL Crypto Cycle. IMO CONY reaches and exceeds all time high during this period. Dividends of 100%+ paid monthly are crazy good. As long as you keep your cost basis to prices down in these buy zones you shouldn't see any NAV erosion. (IMO).
The Duration of the Current Bitcoin Bull CycleHow Much Longer Will the Good Times Last?
In this chart, I highlighted 3 different cyclic frameworks.
The dynamic time cycle which is shown as "grey/blue zigzag" extended into the future. It is a 186 day cycle pattern which was observed at any past parabolic move since 2010 in Bitcoin. It needs 5 repetitions in order to complete a parabolic up move. Count 5 is to be expected to arrive summer next year. I also marked the "static" view for that cycle with blue circle arcs at the bottom. The red is the nominal (average) 200days cycle.
I added the seasonality cycles for Bitcoin at the top of the chart, highlighted with colored areas. The simple seasonality is always a bullish yearly start into May/June, follows by a flat June and bearish July-September pattern. Then bullish from October into end of the year.
The bitcoin halving cycle impact is also shown with the pinkish vertical lines. The last one happened April 2024. During the first 100days period after the halving, there is no impact to be expected. But analyzing past halving cycles, there has always been a big-up-excess around 400days after the halving.
Interestingly, all these 3 cyclic pattern are in alignment for the period October 2024 into May 2025 with a common bullish outlook. So we might get a flat to challenging summer 2024. But afterwards the cycle seem to vote for a continuation of the current bull cycle.
At the bottom, I added my preferred cyclic-tuned dynamic cyclic RSI indicator. Which I have made public for everyone. ("cRSI")
I presented more details on this analysis in my personal blog.
BTC reached the local peak? 👀#Bitcoin distance from BMS
Below is the oscillator, which shows how far the price has moved away from the bull market support. Mostly when we are in the 2-3 year of the cycle, the mark on the oscillator 40 acts as resistance, which indicates a mid-cycle peak.
Can it be different this time?🤔
Let's imagine that the CRYPTOCAP:BTC ETF inflow will be greater and distort the situation, in this case, we have a second trend line that indicates a global peak, which, by the way, becomes lower every cycle, now this mark is around ~50 on the oscillator or 80k on the price chart. You can consider this mark a best-case scenario for a local peak.
💡Remember, a good investor does not rely on one scenario but is ready for any.
BTC long-term viewExpecting BTC to hit the green circle area before fully taking off into the current bullrun
