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Crypto Alternatives Reaching Extremes Please study and look back on the history of CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS.D This trendline has acted as major support with each touch marking key reversal points of alts before moves higher or at the very least moving away from their lows. Light blue is CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS with the grey boxes marking the touch points and the yellow vertical lines being the BTC halving dates. I believe we are here in the cycle with regards to alts and BTC: Last cycle we had a shorter bottom base and accumulation period followed by a longer consolidation period before the halving. This time around we see longer bottom base and somewhat shorter consolidation period these past 5 months. The white dashed line marks the mid line of the bottom base and then price recovering back into the high liquidity/ consolidation zone. And it just so happens that we're in a better setup this time around than last cycle imo. Super HTF head and shoulders: 2019: 2024: Current BTC outlook: IMO any bids of strong alts or only the majors in this 1.5T to 2T zone is a great entry. You can see I included the google trend plot for the search "bitcoin" which is good gauge of sentiment, interest, and tops/ bottoms. Buy when no one is talking about it or cares. Sell when interest peaks and everyone is talking about it. A lot left in this cycle IMO but it will take some time for things to play out.
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS.DLong
by bhx10
1
GBPJPY - 12/09/2024 Market AnalysisYesterday, GBPJPY created a significant low and found strong support around the 184.000 level, leading to a bullish rejection and forming a daily candle with clear rejection signals. Given this price action, there are potential buy setups to watch for during the London session. However, it's important to stay cautious as we have PPI news scheduled for 10:30 PM, approximately 30 minutes after the New York open. This data release is known for its volatility, so it's advisable to wait for the news to pass before entering any trades to avoid unnecessary risk.
by arpitdahal
1
Comparative Analysis: S&P 500 & Federal Funds Rate 1998 vs 2024A Comparative Analysis: S&P 500 SP:SPX and Federal Funds Rate - 1998 vs. 2024 Historical Context: (the lower chart S&P 500 and federal funds rate development 1994-2004) 1998: - On September 29, the Federal Reserve began lowering the federal funds rate from 5.5% to 5.25% - The interest cuts fueled the tech bubble, leading to a sharp rise in the S&P 500 over the next two years - By 1999, as the Fed started increasing rates again, this contributed to the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000 Current Scenario: (the upper chart S&P 500 and federal funds rate development 2020-2030) 2024: - The federal funds rate now stands between 5.25-5.5% - Anticipation is high for a rate cut on September 18, possibly by 25 or 50 basis points, mirroring the scenario of 1998 - Today, instead of a tech bubble, we're witnessing the emergence of an AI bubble Future Speculations: - AI Bubble Expansion: With the FED potentially lowering rates, this could accelerate the AI bubble, propelling the S&P 500 to new heights over the next 1-2 years - Inflation Concerns: Lower interest rates might reignite inflation by 2025. If history repeats, the Fed might then hike rates again, risking a burst of the AI bubble post-2025 Conclusion: While this analysis draws parallels with historical data, it remains speculative However, the pattern aligns with economic cycles, particularly the 18-year property cycle and the broader economic super cycle that began in 2008 -> Do you think this scenario is realistic?
SP:SPX
by OfficerDonut
2
How to Optimize Your Investments and Navigate Economic SeasonsThe economy operates in recurring phases of expansion and contraction, known as business cycles or economic cycles. These cycles play a fundamental role in shaping economic activity, employment, and investment decisions. In this article, we will explore the different phases of the business cycle, relate them to the seasons of the year, and discuss how investors and businesses can navigate these cycles effectively. 🔵𝚆𝙷𝙰𝚃 𝙸𝚂 𝙰 𝙱𝚄𝚂𝙸𝙽𝙴𝚂𝚂 𝙲𝚈𝙲𝙻𝙴? A business cycle refers to the fluctuation of economic activity over a period, encompassing periods of growth and decline. It is measured through changes in key economic indicators such as GDP (Gross Domestic Product), employment, consumer spending, and industrial production. Business cycles typically follow a regular pattern, starting with a phase of expansion, followed by a peak, a period of contraction or recession, and eventually a trough, after which the economy recovers and the cycle begins anew. 🔵𝙱𝚄𝚂𝙸𝙽𝙴𝚂𝚂 𝙲𝚈𝙲𝙻𝙴𝚂 𝙰𝙽𝙳 𝚃𝙷𝙴 𝚂𝙴𝙰𝚂𝙾𝙽𝚂 𝙾𝙵 𝚃𝙷𝙴 𝚈𝙴𝙰𝚁 Each phase of the business cycle can be compared to a season of the year, which provides a helpful way to visualize the economic conditions at play: Spring (Recovery) : After the trough (winter), the economy enters a phase of recovery. Like spring, it's a time of renewal, with growth resuming and businesses beginning to thrive again. Employment rises, consumer confidence improves, and investment increases. Summer (Expansion) : The economy reaches its full strength during the expansion phase. Just like summer brings warmth and energy, this phase brings rising consumer confidence, employment, and production. Companies grow, and investments yield high returns. Autumn (Weakening) : As the cycle peaks, the economy starts showing signs of weakening, much like the cooling of autumn. Consumer spending and business growth slow down, and inflation may rise. The peak signals that the economy is at its maximum potential, and a slowdown or contraction may follow. Winter (Contraction or Recession) : In winter, the economy enters a recession, characterized by declining economic activity, falling production, and rising unemployment. Just as winter halts nature’s growth, a recession slows down economic growth. This is the time when businesses may suffer losses, and consumer confidence weakens. 🔵𝙸𝙼𝙿𝙰𝙲𝚃 𝙾𝙵 𝙱𝚄𝚂𝙸𝙽𝙴𝚂𝚂 𝙲𝚈𝙲𝙻𝙴𝚂 𝙾𝙽 𝙳𝙸𝙵𝙵𝙴𝚁𝙴𝙽𝚃 𝚂𝙴𝙲𝚃𝙾𝚁𝚂 Business cycles affect various sectors of the economy differently. Some sectors, like consumer discretionary and industrials, tend to perform well during expansions but suffer during recessions. Others, such as utilities and consumer staples, may be more resilient during downturns, as they provide essential goods and services. For example: Technology and Manufacturing : These sectors are highly sensitive to business cycles and tend to flourish during periods of expansion due to increased consumer and business spending. Healthcare and Utilities : These sectors often remain stable during recessions because demand for healthcare and essential services remains constant. Crypto Sector: SP500: 🔵𝙽𝙰𝚅𝙸𝙶𝙰𝚃𝙸𝙽𝙶 𝙱𝚄𝚂𝙸𝙽𝙴𝚂𝚂 𝙲𝚈𝙲𝙻𝙴𝚂 𝙰𝚂 𝙰𝙽 𝙸𝙽𝚅𝙴𝚂𝚃𝙾𝚁 Investors can use knowledge of the business cycle to adjust their portfolios. During expansion phases, growth stocks and cyclical industries may offer better returns. Risk-On vs. Risk-Off Investing in Different Business Cycle Phases During periods of economic expansion (summer), the environment is often referred to as "risk-on." Investors are more willing to take risks because economic growth drives higher returns on riskier assets, such as equities, growth stocks, or emerging markets. As consumer confidence, business spending, and investments increase, the potential rewards from higher-risk investments become more appealing. Example of risk-on and off of cryptocurrency Example of risk-on and off of Stock Market However, during periods of economic contraction or recession (winter), investors typically shift to a "risk-off" strategy. In this phase, they seek to protect their capital by moving away from high-risk assets and toward lower-risk investments like government bonds, blue-chip stocks, or cash. The focus shifts to preserving wealth, and risk-taking is minimized or eliminated. Investors may use leading and lagging indicators to anticipate where the economy is headed. Leading indicators, such as stock market performance or consumer confidence, tend to signal changes before the economy as a whole moves. Lagging indicators, like unemployment or corporate profits, confirm trends after they occur. 🔵𝙶𝙾𝚅𝙴𝚁𝙽𝙼𝙴𝙽𝚃 𝙿𝙾𝙻𝙸𝙲𝙸𝙴𝚂 𝙰𝙽𝙳 𝙱𝚄𝚂𝙸𝙽𝙴𝚂𝚂 𝙲𝚈𝙲𝙻𝙴𝚂 Governments often intervene to smooth out the extremes of business cycles through fiscal and monetary policy. During recessions, governments may implement stimulus packages, cut taxes, or increase spending to boost demand. Central banks may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing and investment. Conversely, during periods of rapid expansion and inflationary pressure, governments may raise taxes or cut spending, while central banks might increase interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating. 🔵𝙲𝙾𝙽𝙲𝙻𝚄𝚂𝙸𝙾𝙽 Business cycles are a natural part of economic activity, influencing everything from consumer spending to corporate profitability and investment strategies. By understanding the phases of the business cycle (or seasons of the economy) and their impact on various sectors, investors and businesses can better position themselves to navigate economic fluctuations. Whether the economy is expanding or contracting, being aware of the current phase of the business cycle helps guide decisions, manage risks, and seize opportunities.
VANTAGE:SP500Education
by BigBeluga
3
SMH forming a long downward trendSMH failed to make new highs after the last rally and now forming downward trend At the peak of July 10 we have seen a continued decline in SMH overall Latest rally peaked in August 21 coming in much lower than July 10 As SMH gradually sold off it also helped form a strong resistance line painting a long term grim picture We are in late cycle investing at the moment. This is helping solidify that the longer term risk assets have begun SMH is looking like the leader in the tech sell off so far. Recommend preparing your portfolio by rotating out of risk assets over to more defense ETFs
NASDAQ:SMHShort
by ratchet-mint
Bitcoin: Hodlers VS Cruisers VS TradersAnother very outside-the-box trend that I discovered while going down an INTOTHEBLOCK rabbit hole was the Holders' Composition by Time Held leading into the parabolic phase. These CRYPTOCAP:BTC Coin balances are a metric powered by INTOTHEBLOCK that shows ownership distribution over time. What is a Hodler Balance? They are address balances that have held CRYPTOCAP:BTC over a period of one year or longer. These are long-term investors. An increase in this metric shows long-term bullish sentiment. What is a Cruiser? They are address balances that have held CRYPTOCAP:BTC over a period of one - twelve months. These addresses are what we would consider swing traders. The transfer from Cruiser balance to Trader balance can be seen as bearish sentiment and the transfer from Trader to Cruiser can been seen as bullish sentiment. What is a Trader? They are address balances that have held CRYPTOCAP:BTC less than one month. These are short term balances of day traders, bot trading, etc. An increase in this metric would indicate volatility and a potential bearish sentiment in the market. With that being said about the Trader Balance, on 10/22/20 we can see a (+6%) uptick in Trader balances and a (-2%) down in Cruiser Balances showing investors taking profits and trading into the volatility. On 4/20/24, the Trader Balance crossed the Cruiser Balance solidifying this accumulation period. They started closing in on each other at the end of July, Post-Bitcoin Conference w/Trump speech + JPY reverse-carry trade unwinding + Mega Tech FC. Now they have returned the their early July numbers. KEY TAKEAWAY: You will see a flow into TRADERSBALANCE, out of CRUISERSBALANCE AND HODLERSBALANCE when the market has officially accepted we have entered the parabolic phase of this bull cycle. Look for a flow change and TRADERSBALANCE | CRUISERBALANCE cross between 10/8 & 10/22.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by RILOBUYLOW
Remember! Remember! The 5th of November!Thursday... the 5th of November 2020... CRYPTOCAP:BTC pumped nearly 7% in one day. We were 30ish days into the parabolic phase of the 3rd bull cycle for #Bitcoin. It was trading at $14,911. The holders had no idea that CRYPTOCAP:BTC would continue to climb an additional 335% over another 5 months, reaching a local ATH of $64,895 on April 14th 2021. Here we are on September 6th, 2024. CRYPTOCAP:BTC dropped to $52,546 or (-3.8%) for the day. Septembers are a sore subject when it comes to financial markets and Bitcoin in particular. Across the Post-Halving years, CRYPTOCAP:BTC will drop -2% historically. Considering CRYPTOCAP:BTC has tested local lows across the 5th and 6th of the last 3 months; July 5-6th low: $53,499 August 5-6th low: $49,050 September 5-6th low: $52,546 (so far) It is almost like someone is trolling the Holders... The focus of this chart is to consider the above and the following. Have we found our local bottom this early in September? ($52,546) How will Bitcoin react to the upcoming 25 bps Fed Rate cut? ($50,000 vs $60,000) Will our price position entering the parabolic phase affect the overall gains over the next 6 months? (90% vs 480%) Where will our new ATH fall next April/May? ($100,000 vs $305,000) Let me know how bearish or bullish you think the future of Bitcoin is.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by RILOBUYLOW
BITCOIN PARABOLIC PHASE INCOMING ‼️ BITCOIN PARABOLIC PHASE INCOMING ‼️ Confirmed $100k CRYPTOCAP:BTC by 2025. If TVC:GOLD walks away from this new ATH... It would confirm there is enough correlation to look further into a 49 month clock in the #GOLD & #Bitcoin Bull-Cycle. Theory is... #GOLD will start it's parabolic phase of its bull cycle, lasting 6 months and reaching a new ATH. There will be a 2 month "break" between both assets, sideways or slightly down. After the 2 month break, #Bitcoin will start it's parabolic phase of its bull cycle, also lasting 6 months. The two assets will go sideways and do their thing for 35 months before the 14 month parabolic dance starts all over. Cycle 1⃣: 02/01/2020 | TVC:GOLD | $1,587 08/01/2020 | TVC:GOLD | $2,049 +29% Change 10/01/2020 | CRYPTOCAP:BTC | $10,555 04/01/2021 | CRYPTOCAP:BTC | $58,732 +456% Change Cycle 2⃣: 03/01/24 | TVC:GOLD | $2,004 09/01/24 | TVC:GOLD | $2,555 +27% Change 11/01/24 | CRYPTOCAP:BTC | TBD 05/01/25 | CRYPTOCAP:BTC | TBD TBD% Change The TVC:GOLD trend lines match during the 6 month parabolic phases. 46 degree trend on the daily, both cycles. -31 degree trend on the daily, 8 months after ATH. ...If History repeats itself... CRYPTOCAP:BTC should stay sideways or down for the next 55 days. Most likely a fake-out pump coming from the pending Fed Rate cut this month. We should stay below FWB:65K based on the price action around the Jackson Hole speech. We would only need an 88% increase this phase for CRYPTOCAP:BTC to reach $100k. This is a small ask, considering the previous post-halving cycles. If it follows the same trend line up this cycle we could see $305k next April. As nice as that sounds, it is not very likely we will see a 456% gain this cycle.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by RILOBUYLOW
2
XIU / TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange)The TSX / XIU (ETF) is going down over the next 8 months, no doubt in my mind as a Canadian. Housing is not selling, starts are being cancelled / going bankrupt, we are over-populated and our infrastructure can not handle it. The rate decreases won't save our over-leveraged banks (real-estate, mostly residential, down 20% in many areas and still barely any buyers and many looking to exit - investors primarily). No way this holds these levels. I bought Feb 2025 $34 puts for $0.65 CAD. I expect this could be a ten bagger, especially if they finally admit Canada and USA and the world is in a massive recession. It is undeniable here. Foodbanks are empty and people are too strapped to donate (or are sick of seeing "students" from India eating "free food" meant for Canadians - many of whom are struggling). This stock price is a joke. Good luck to all!
TSX:XIUShort
by mraso30
3
BITCOIN in a LIVERMORE FunnelThe accumulation and distribution volume matches the positive and negative money flows of the first 5 waves in a Jesse Livermore stock cylinder. Will wave 6 see a rush of positive money flow into #Bitcoin into the end of the year? Let's see If it does then that will further cement this pattern of accumulation , sideways movement then breakout with continuation of buying power into the Bull market top. Let's observe this in real time shall we? Should be a fun few months ahead of us after a long period of churn. S/O to @arvine11 for bringing up the Livermore stock trend analysis.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by BallaJi
SOL Bottom BINANCE:SOLUSDT Based purely off technicals SOL looks to be bottomed or very close to one. 130 support 126 previous year (2023) high Solana bottomed after 8 straight down days on Aug 5th and has experienced the same just now Anytime Sol has suffered 5+ straight down days it has typically marked a local bottom or THE bottom 12H, 50 period MA speed showing a bottom Vertical blue lines marking extreme down days exhaustion. This MA speed (50 period on 12H) is a interesting RSI alternative and we are at the bottom bidding zone. - - - Right now Sol is heavily shorted yet price has simply come back to previous major support zone. There lies liquidity (Longs SL's) below the 110 wick from Aug 5th but hard to know if it wants to get left alone or retested. Lots of Liquidity is at 141, 146, and 164. Solana Breakpoint coming up on Sep 20th and will pique interest. Perhaps its a sell the news if we see any sort of rally in SOL. Key economic data coming early this month along with the start of rate cuts are key to watch. I will be looking for some bids soon but could take a while for any sort of major movement. All I see is a decent RR area right here.
Long
by bhx10
Downside Ahead For T Bonds - COT Strategy ShortDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT T Bonds (ZB) My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in ZB if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Small Specs most long they have been in 3 years = bearish. OI Analysis: Extreme high in OI. Generally, extremely high OI found at market tops. True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for t bonds to go down into October COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist & POIV Sell Signals Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by Tradius_Trades