Upside Ahead for Crude Oil - COT Strategy LongDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
LONG
Crude Oil (CL)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CL if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal
OI Analysis: Down move since July and recent consolidation has seen CM's getting more long.
Valuation: Undervalued VS GOld
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for oil to go up to mid October.
Front Month Premium: Front month delivery contracts selling at premium to further out contracts. This is bullish, and is a sign that we could see a commercially driven bull move.
COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist Buy Signal
Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
Seasonality
Upside Ahead for Mexican Peso - COT Strategy LongDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
LONG
Mexican Peso (6M)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in 6M if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal
Extreme Positioning: Commercials most long they've been since March 2023 = bullish.
OI Analysis: Down move since May has seen Commercials adding to long positioning, which is bullish. Small Specs are at an extreme in short positioning. Also, OI is at its lowest level since 2022, generally low OI is found at bottoms.
Sentiment: Bearish advisor sentiment is a contrarian signal which we look to fade.
Valuation: Undervalued vs Treasuries & Gold
ADX: Paunch forming (but not yet confirmed).
True Seasonal: General grind up to mid September
COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist, POIV, %R Buy Signals
Remember, this is not a "Buy Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
Downside Ahead for JPY - COT Strategy Sell DISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
JPY (6J)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6J if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Extreme Positioning: Commercials at extreme in long positioning, most long since 2021. Small Specs at extreme in long positioning, most long since 2021. All this is bearish.
Valuation: Overvalued VS Treasuries & Gold
OI Analysis: Upmove since July has seen CM's quickly shift to strong short position = bearish.
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for this currency to go down into October.
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist, POIV & Stochastic Sell Signals
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
Downside Ahead for Aussie - COT Strategy Short DISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Australian Dollar (6A)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6A if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
OI Analysis: Last 3 weeks of price rally has seen OI increasing while the CM's have been getting out of their longs. This is bearish.
ADX: Pinch forming.
Valuation: Overvalued VS Treasuries
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for this currency to go down to early October.
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: POIV, %R & Stochastic Sell Signals
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
Russell 2000 - COT Based Strategy Suggests Downside AheadDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Russell 2000 (RTY)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in RTY if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Valuation: Overvalued VS Treasuries
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for equities to go down in September
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: POIV & UO Sell Signals
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
Sugar Potential Long as we realize we have divergence on fund managers in red
commercials are at their highest and price went up heavily before when they were at this level
retailers in green super bearish
we see and impulsive move on daily chart and a gap created
waiting for this gap to be filled and entry on lower timeframe backed up by bullish seasonality
Trade Safe
ETH 2400 - 2000So ETH broke down. Send it lower.
Found some interesting areas of interest using the OHL (open, high, low) this year and previous years.
There is a strong interest zone between 2400 and 2000. Found lots of confluence.
Yearly open marked by red line with the yearly highs and lows marked in black.
1. Yearly open at 2282
2. Yearly low at 2095
3. 2023 yearly high at 2447
4. April 2023 high point (orange arrow) similar point to the yearly low at 2095
5. Price coming below the 200d MA and 52W ma
6. Aug - Oct timeframe seasonality
7. Similar chart setup as last year
I'm not an ETH bull anymore but I think this chart here shows a good longer term setup. The 4th year in the cycle is typically the strongest and I expect this time to NOT be different.
Can also see how the 2022 yearly high and open at 3800 act as strong resistance thus far in 2024.
They're really gonna let us run it back again muahaha.
XAUUSD NFP!? Gold has been consolidating for the past few days and I'm led to believe it is waiting for a catalyst to actual breakout from the consolidation. As we are headed into a new month I do think we will need to see the performance of the US economy and other countries as well to get a clear confirmation on the next big move on Gold, the DXY was showing good retracement which i led to believe is from the PCE number and also Earnings from Nvidia. There's a lot to be said, this is a bit long now, so my area of interest is still 2460-2400 looking to go long if these areas hold up well then i'd definitely love to be long.
Yield Curve De-Inverting: A Bearish September IndicatorFlying under the radar for much of this month is the spread between the yield on the US 2-year Treasury note and the 10-year note. The gap is now just five basis points, having traded at negative 0.5ppt as recently as June 25. As we enter September, notoriously the worst month on the calendar for the S&P 500, if we see short rates continue to fall while the 10-year holds steady, I assert that it would be a bearish indicator for the S&P 500.
Here’s how it might play out: if we see a weak payroll report on Friday, September 6, then chances are bad news will be seen as bad news, resulting in a flight to safety in the Treasury market. Of course, intermediate-term notes could see significant upside pressure, leading to a drop in the 10-year. The next key report following the August NFP update is the CPI report later in September. After today’s in-line PCE numbers, there should be a firm beat on where inflation stands.
Now that earnings season is over, the focus will turn back to the macro. Considering that the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index remains sharply in the red, we need to see better economic data to help support the growth narrative looking ahead. Sure, the Q2 second update on US real GDP growth was solid, and the Q3 tracking numbers are sanguine, but the market will be forward-looking.
So, keep your eye on the 2s10s spread—a yield curve disinversion during this spooky seasonal stretch could bring about volatility.
Fall Rally Patterns Setting Up: GMNYSE:GM was driven down way below its fundamentals by panicky retail. It is now back up into its fundamental level, well ahead of the Fall Rally. The fast recovery indicates that the selling was not aligned with fundamentals. Auto sales have an annual cycle with the highest number of sales in the final quarter of each year.
BTC soon breakout?Hello traders!
Here's a quick update on BTC. My thoughts remain the same—it's likely that we'll see growth soon.
The reasons are:
1) Bears are quite weak.
2) According to wave patterns and the flag, we're moving toward the top.
3) Historically, autumn has shown upward movements.
IMPORTANT! Always follow your risk management strategy. Don’t risk more than 5%. Happy trading!
Sabre Corporation | SABR | Long at $3.00Sabre Corporation's NASDAQ:SABR earnings have slowly been improving since the pandemic and may be heading into profitability by 2025/2026. Disinterest in the stock may also be waning as the price creeps closer to my selected historical simple moving average (SMA, white and teal lines). Often, but not always, as the price nears this line, it jumps to make contact over a few weeks or months. Not to say that more volatility won't be ahead, but NASDAQ:SABR currently sits in a personal buy zone at $3.00.
Target #1 = $4.00
Target #2 = $5.00
Target #3 = $6.70
BTCUSD - Will history repeat itself with Bitcoin?BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Will history repeat itself with Bitcoin? The first grey box zone in last year's spring indicates a price range where the asset consolidated before a breakout upwards. The second box zone indicates another consolidation area before another potential breakout. I think there will be an upward reversal when the weekly RSI reaches mid-levels, and then we will see strong momentum to 150k price levels by next spring.
DXY LongDXY Long potential
DXY has reached weekly demand zone
waiting for price to reach daily demand zone
price undervalued against bond long term
also waiting for undervalued to happen short term
seasonality looks great up trending for quite some time
retailers are selling heavy and commercials are buying slightly which where we should be riding with them
PS: news will give you headache always trust your system
Trade safe
DOLLAR down BITCOIN upThe DOLLAR is the worlds #1 trade and reserve currency
#GOLD is the KING of Anti Fiat
#Bitcoin is attempting to replace GOLD in the mindshare of people
(to a certain extent it has, considering from where it started from just a brief 15 years ago)
So observing the major trends of the #DXY is crucial to determine how to place your bets
and how much risk you should be taking on.
*** The caveat being that the DXY is just measuring the dollar mainly against the Euro and various other major Fiats that become more worthless over the years ... so these decades long gyrations don't actual show you how poorly these #fiat currencies store your value.****
I believe #Crypto is on the cusp of some spectacular returns
The #BTC.d will soon reverse
You will see #Ethereum and the # altcoins gain some real strength once grayscale has sold down much of it's ETH holdings.
The 4 year cycle is back on track ... after running too soon in the cycle.
Historically Q4 of a Bitcoin halving year is the start of some explosive up moves.
We have been waiting 4 years for this...
Do you want to wait another 4 years for 2028 to experience the next Crypto meltup?
US02Y / US10Y Yield CurveThe Yield Curve has been inverted for a long time, and as rates are about to go lower, it can finally un-invert. When the 2-year yield is higher than the 10-year yield, the chart is above 1.0 ; But once the 2-year yield dips below 10-year yield, the chart should drop below the 1.0 mark.
BTC Bears in Disbelief (BULL PROPAGANDA)BTC has failed to close below 58k on the weekly for 3 straight weeks. It will be 4 straight weeks if this weekly candle closes green.
There are signs this was the bottom:
1. Huge volume spike with lots of liquidations on the Aug 5th Japan carry trade unwind dump
2. Equities V shaped recovery from the Aug 5th dump
3. BTC barely touching 50k, bouncing hard from the dump creating a huge weekly wick, and staying above the 1 year MA (52 week MA)
4. I saw countless people on X calling for the wick to be filled, more pain ahead because of that huge volume spike on the dump, and lots of calls for 30k to 40k BTC
5. I also listened to a few twitter spaces with people saying there was definitely more pain or chop ahead
6. Then I saw lots of people shorting on the timeline and in the discords I'm in
7. DXY dumping while foreign currencies strengthen
8. Lastly the fear and greed index had not been this low since Q4 2022 (the bottom)
Markets are not easy. The market does not let a lot of people, in this case shorts wanting 40k or 30k BTC, be right. This low volume and low volatility all of August is to bore people out of getting positioned. We could see the wick get filled but that does not always HAVE to happen.
Max pain is speculators (open interest) not positioning before the pump on this recent consolidation and then fomoing later on when price is above 70k adding more fuel to the fire.
This will leave people who are sidelined left to buy in higher, causing price to go up, and those who are short to get liquidated or forced to buy back, which also causes price to go up. More fuel. Anyone continuing to short this pump would also leave them to be juiced as price grinds higher from them closing their positions.
Global liquidity has risen higher and this is the halving/ election year.
Recession talk and moving average death cross yap is all FUD from midcurving morons. Those who buy, hold, and DCA will continue to be rewarded and have been rewarded. (Look at those who recently got their BTC back from Mt. Gox)
The top is not in I expect that to come Q4 2025 perhaps. We will see. I could be wrong or I could be right. No one can predict the future.
Thanks for reading this latest installment bull post after BTC has gone up a small amount.
GBPUSD: Swing Buy Now +500 Pips! Get ReadyDear Traders,
GBPUSD is expected to continue rising from current price scenario, we have NFP this week as well which is likely to increase the buy volume within the market. We cannot predict how news will impact on the price but we can see price heading towards our target in soon time.
Team Setupsfx_