Get started

Seasonality

Alt-season? Bitcoin BTC Dominance past cycles behavior analysis The best way to spot an altseason is looking at the Bitcoin BTC Dominance graph. On this analysis, of the behavior of the Bitcoin BTC Dominance, I spotted in the graph , what happened on the last two cycles, 2017 and 2021, looking back to the 2013 BTC price top. In the analysis I spotted three types of events: All Time High (ATH) Cycle Bottom Attempts to break the past cycle's ATH This brought me some interesting "coincidences" that leads to some insightful predictions. My conclusion, so far, is that an All Time High breakout is a very important moment to the possible alt season beginning. One thing that should be considered is that the current cycle has some different characteristics as, probably in detail, all of them have. This means that maybe it could take some more time to the alt season start, as it did for the ATH be finally broken. One thing I did'n mention in the video is that the BTC dominance has broken a theoretical downtrend line. That said, considering the end of the year calendar change that is a mentally important moment, I wouldn't be surprised if the altseason waits till January to pick up. To be continued...
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by PedroGamaTrade
1
This could be the lowLooking at the RUS:PD1! contract: After completing the three impulse waves (1, 3, 5) upward, Palladium futures entered a steep downward correction, reaching the final Fibonacci level (76.4%). It appears that the price is now forming the first green daily candle in a long time. With an upward-pointing elliptical trendline, this could mark the low. We’ll need to wait for confirmation in the coming trading days. Additionally, Palladium’s bullish seasonality is set to begin soon, suggesting a potentially strong end to the year. Let’s see how it unfolds!
RUS:PD1!Long
by p4917
Nasdaq 100 Consolidates Near Record High: Is a 22,000 Target NexThe U.S. presidential election has sparked optimism also in the stock market, with the technology index rising by 1,000 points. Following this new all-time high, the Nasdaq 100 ( PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 ) is now consolidating just below that level. This consolidation is taking the shape of a flag pattern, which could signal potential for further upward movement. A breakout to the upside would confirm this pattern and could set the stage for additional gains, with a target of 22,000 points.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Mihai_Iacob
2
Bitcoin diminishing return?Bitcoin is famous with its cycles, halving and huge returns. Since 2012 price has gone up from 2$ to 90,000$. Each cycle starts with halving and then price goes up by hundreds or thousands percent and then come back down. Since 2012, we have completed three cycles and we are in the fourth one. In the first cycle, the lowest price was 2$ and then jumped to 1160$, this was a 52,287% increase! The next cycle from bottom to top we had 12,511% increase. The third cycle had 1,921% increase. The pattern seems clear. Each time the return is diminishing by 4 to 6 times: 52287 divided by 12511 = 4.17 12511 divided by 1921 = 6.5 That means in this cycle the increase from the cycle bottom at 15,500$ should have been between 320% to 480% (this number comes from 1921% divided by 4 and 6). A 320% to 480% increase from 15,500$ is 70,000$ and 95,000$ respectively. Bitcoin is well beyond the first target at 70,000$ and at the moment of writing this, is only 5,000$ short of 95,000$. However, there is a problem with diminishing return theory. To make it more clear let's look at this theory from market top perspective. In the last two cycles, market top to market top, have had 1,900% and 356% return. That means the return diminished by 5.5 times. If the same thing were to happen again it means the current market top should have only been 65% (356 divided by 5.5) of the previous market top. That means the current market top should be 45,000$. Now the same thing will happen to market bottom to top if you believe that market has diminishing return. Based on this theory in the next cycle from market bottom to top there only will be around 80% to 120% increase and the cycle after only 25% to 75% increase from bottom and so on. That means at some point the price will never reaches even back to the previous cycle top. This is very unlikely given that bitcoin will only be more scarce and the global money supply will only increase.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Mo_reza_kaz
MA OSCILLATOR RISK METRIC | BTC COLOURED CANDLES [Weekly]Hi All. Since my prior post on this indicator, I have been asked to show this indicator with risk level colours against price. I initially built this functionality in originally (during the development of this indicator) a number of different ways but ended up simplifying to using pine scrip 'bar color' function. This post shows BTC's behavior to historic over / under extension and volatile ranges in prior cycles on the Weekly chart. I will follow this post showing the daily chart. Feel free to interact with the chart on a computer via this post (phone apps only show the static image with trading view posts).
BNC:BLXLong
by Brodie
SMA Golden Ratio | CYCLE 4 ATH UpdateIn accordance with historical behavior, BTCs ATH each cycle has corresponded with the next SMA line down (following a multiplication factor of the Fibonacci sequence). As observed in CYCLE 3, BTC tag the BLUE line putting in the Technical High of this cycle meaning CYCLE 4 should tag the Yellow line if History is to repeat. The Second and ATH top of CYCLE 3 tag two lines down hitting the gray line. We can see BTC has already tag the Yellow line when BTC tage ~73K USD. Looking at CYCLE 3, BTC played with the BLUE line multiple times before settling with the top. Considering this in CYCLE 4 BTC may make another attempt at intercepting the Yellow line again depending no how parabolic BTC will be over the AUS summer period will land the price in the zones discussed in the below post. BTC in CYCLE 4 may also contact the gray line and in this scenario most tops out around the 100K region December 2024 / January 2025.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Brodie
BUY / SELL INDICATOR| CYCLE 4 ATH UpdateAssuming we reach the Light Red line again of the BUY / SELL indicator, as per our analysis in the below post this could suggest an ATH for CYCLE 4 could land in the 117K to 157K region. It is noted while it was the second top in CYCLE 3; our purple line met / crossed but did not exceed past our orange signal line materially (see red arrow above). This marked the second and ATH of Cycle 3. We are approaching this scenario with the orange and purple line as we approach the mid 90K region (see cross and second red arrow above). Worth tracking on your radar. Again if we continued on as we have with prior cycles and reach either or both the Red Lines of the BUY / SELL indicator we would be expecting a very parabolic period ahead.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Brodie
1-800-Flowers.com | FLWS | Long at $8.001-800-Flowers.com NASDAQ:FLWS has been in price consolidation mode since 2022 and may be gearing up for an upward move as my historical selected simple moving average reconnects with the price. The company is expected to become profitable in 2025 and the holiday season is approaching. Historically, this is the period when the price begins to rise. With a 25 million float and 14.54% short interest, this ticker could get interesting if it takes off. But be cautious as the economy seems to be showing signs of slowing... At $8.00, NASDAQ:FLWS is in a personal buy zone. Target #1 = $9.20 Target #2 = $10.50 Target #3 = $20.50 (long-term if the economy is strong...)
NASDAQ:FLWSLong
by WorthlessViews
Three days after elections and one after FED cutStarting with #VIX the value decreased a lot after elections showing the decrease in investors fear With less fear we can follow the #SPX #DX1! #BTC1! which strongly rise their value. Commodites in general seems to had loss some points with Dollar strength, in this chart we can watch #GC1! and #BZ1! as benchmark In the case of Brent we can see a double top even with line chart. #US10Y decreased after 25bp cut nevertheless with Trump election US will probably activate more worldwide tariffs and this can lead to an increase in prices, and so the next couple months CPI will be a important measure to look at US economy in the future. So even it's decreasing and bonds are inversly to prices, I should keep an eye on it
TVC:US10Y
by AFCapital21
Don't F@ck up the Banana zone!This is the Others marketcap vs the Bitcoin Market cap chart. With their respective Banana zones for the past couple cycle and the current one we have already started. The KEY takeaway is you should be feeling the FOMO and kind already have been deployed into your favourite #Alts This #altseason may yield one of the worst performances in a cycle --- which I have warned a few times now. And finish sooner than you think. If you had waited for confirmation of a altcoin breakout and rotated/bough at the sad face this how your returns would have been crippled. 21 X ----> 5.8X 2017 6.4X ----> 3X 2021 3/4X -----> 1.75X/2.3X 2025 Drastically different. I hope you have found this chart informative. Smash the likes.
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERSLong
by BallaJi
Is Gold's correction over?In my recent analyses, I warned that a significant correction in Gold prices was inevitable. True to this prediction, the election of Donald Trump triggered a sharp 1,000-pip drop in Gold's value. However, yesterday, the market rebounded strongly, recovering 700 pips from that initial decline. The big question now is whether this correction has run its course. In my view, we may have reached a bottom, and Gold could be poised to resume its overall uptrend. I’m currently looking for buying opportunities on dips.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob