Facing Reality. Bitcoin's long-term, seasonal sine wave.Something in the chart has been signaling that BTC is going down in spite of the hype. It seemed reasonable that it might bounce back, at least to 9K. Now the outlook doesn't even look that good. On the one hand, it would be nice for the promoters to exit on a bounce. To go short from higher up. But there is no need to mislead everyone.
Halving, news, indicators, the seasonal variation, as smooth as a deep ocean wave. It's all priced in. Efficient market hypothesis. Overanticipated. Overhyped. And ultimately overpriced.
The curve is so smooth and natural. It's surprising how it escaped being noticed for such an extended duration.
Do you think BTC will break a year-long curved trend just for us? Today?
Seasonaltop
SPY - Typical seasonal topping setupConsidering seasonal forces, one shouldn't be too surprised to see stocks take a bit of a break. If we are still withing a bull market (and the higher time frames seems to continue to support that notion) one ought to consider The Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) long sweet spot (178.43) as an interesting level. We are heading into a tough seasonal window here and a pullback seems very likely. A move back into that area would represent about a 5% correction which in my opinion is very normal (and healthy). That area too is well within normal extension targets off this diamond price pattern, against an existing trend line and an area with a nice gap to be filled. Should the bull really fall apart (which I don't expect) price may have to go take out the February lows. Should that level be broken in earnest I would regrettable have to walk away from the long setup mentioned.
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