Were going to be fine - Short-term Bitcoin UpdateRelax and take a deep breath. Volume is dropping on the decline and a very clear bullish divergence has formed. Were at support and acting solidly. SEC and CFTC meeting is closed-door and a report from it will not be public for several weeks, so take a deep breath, read the chart and relax.
SEC
Forgot about $ETC? Get ready for moon.I have a mid term target for $ETC @ 340k sat. Roughly 50% upside from here within the week.
My message to my signals channel:
TL;DR. I am holding $ETH in anticipation of the SEC meeting. Also holding an even amount of $ETC in satoshi value as a hedge.
A number of #TeamNeverWorkAgain members have reached out to me about what to do with their spare $BTC. The other day we made a call stating we were moving roughly half of our portfolios to $BTC and it played out quite nicely. Yes, alts are red, and they look like attractive buys, but we don’t feel this is the bottom yet. Protecting your satoshis in $BTC is a great move as $BTC has been charging up with no indicators saying that it will stop. Feeling like you need to be in all alt coins is FOMO. We are just beginning alt season in my opinion and this is a healthy pullback. In this market, the impatient give their money to the patient. I’m holding off on almost all alt purchased until they look fully bottomed.
That being said: I am holding a fair amount of $ETH. This is in anticipation of the SEC conference on Monday discussing whether or not $ETH will be deemed a security. Many of us have learned time and time again that putting all your eggs in one basket never ends well. It causes emotional thinking and often drives to panic selling. As a hedge to my bet on $ETH, I will be holding an even amount of satoshi value worth of $ETC.
Why? One of the major factor in determining whether or not $ETH will be deemed a security is that $ETH raising capital from a public sale is one characteristic of a security. $ETC however did not raise funds through public sale. In my opinion, $ETH will fall in the short term if it is deemed a security, but will have an inverse reaction and appreciate in value from a fundamental standpoint that it is not a security and consequently will be more difficult to regulate than $ETH.
Please do not be concerned though about $ETH in the long run. I believe both outcomes, $ETH being deemed a security or not, are bullish for crypto overall. If $ETH is classified as a security, institutions that have been on the sidelines will take this movement way more seriously and likely start to join us. If $ETH is not deemed a security, we will be closer to being officially considered an entirely new asset class which in my opinion will have the space going crazy!
On top of all this, $ETC’s weekly chart looks so good that I am going to hold it for a few weeks time. Just look at that bowl baby!
Please remember, you know what’s best to do with your own wealth. This is our opinion and should not be taken as financial advice.
Yours truly,
J
SHORT Ethereum rising wedge 4:1 RR short setupSEC news incoming
Stoch RSI bearish crossovers in 4h and 12h TF's
Bearish divergences in RSI in multiple TF's forming.
Broken rising wedge at the end of an uptrend with descending volume .
4:1 risk reward ratio.
Position sizing: 2% of trading portfolio
Leverage: x5
When the SEC looks at you funny..think LFINAt least this is volatile like cryptos, should you be on the right side of the 'hill'
OSTK: Possible Support After SEC Probes Into ICOs3.2.18
The sec probes have added uncertainty to many bockchain companies with icos and this has negatively impacted stock prices. The fear in the market, however, is unfounded since the findings of these probes has yet to be released. the SEC's actions seem to be precautionary and are not specifically targeting bad actors. This means that retail investors may be able to buy ostk at a significant discount in the short term.
The market seems to be going sideways, and makes swings for those having bought in around 60/share a bit uneasy. The market could head south out of fear and uncertainty. uncertainty with the sec probe and earning for last quarter. the earnings may be negatively impacted by the btc/bch debacle, which could have lost ostk quite a bit of money. A bounce off the 50 LEVEL is hopeful, but if this breaks then be looking for a return to the 40 mark. This is assuming no affirmatively bad news for the company.
If there is a bounce up be looking for new resistance around the 56 level gap. None of this is trading advice and is only the opinion of a retail investor. You are responsible for your own market decisions.
Are we gonna bottom? This is what I would like to see...I know its still too early to call a bottom but I thought I would do a quick post of what I would like to see as a good start.
If the SEC meeting today goes well, I can easily see a big buy day. If today's candle closes above $8,200 it should cause a major spike in volume and signal a strong rebound. That rebound, if it holds, would keep the secondary major trend line in tact and allow us to continue on a upward trend.
BTC SOLD DISRUPTIVE TECH, NOT DISRUPTIVE INTEGRATIONWE ALL HEARD JAY CLAYTON OF THE SEC SAY THAT THERE ARE MANY DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES AND VERY FEW ACTUALLY MAKE IT.
IS UNCLE SAM SANE TO MAKE THE OBVIOUS DECISION ON A MONEY LAUNDERING AND BLACK MARKET GROWING CRYPTO CURRENCY THAT PROMISES TO DISRUPT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM.
EVERYONE MEME'D THE PETRO DOLLAR, VENEZUELA BYPASSED SANCTIONS.
DO YOU THINK ANY COUNTRY IS GOING TO HELP GROW A GLOBAL CURRENCY TO RELINQUISHES THEIR POWER TO ECONOMICALLY AND POLITICALLY SHAPE OTHER NATIONS THROUGH SANCTIONS.
BITCOIN IS A BUBBLE, THE MOMENT COINBASE GAVE THE IRS USER INFORMATION. LOOK AT THE DOJI ON 11/29.
MARKET WAS CLEARLY PROPPED UP #FOMO
DECENTRALIZED AND OFF SHORE EXCHANGES ARE GOING TO TURN CRYPTOCURRENCY BACK TO THE DARK WEB THROUGH NON TAX COMPLIANCE.
LEGALIZE DRUGS, CRIMINALIZE BITCOIN - TONE VAYS
ICO'S GET REGISTERED WITH SECURITIES.
ONLINE GAMBLING BILL GETS PASSED IN US TO STOP BTC DEPOSIT BONUSES.
BITCOIN SOLD DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY, NOT DISRUPTIVE INTEGRATION.
BLOCKCHAIN WILL BE INTEGRATED.
THE IRONY IS NOT WHO SELLS THE BOTTOM, BUT WHOM GETS LEFT BUYING THE TOP - BUBBLE PERSPECTIVE
AS AN ESCALATING TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIETY WE ARE DECIDING ON THE ABUSE OF FREE WILL VS THE ABUSE OF COMPLETE CONTROL OF TECHNOLOGY.
BETTER TO KNOW THE DEVIL, THAN THE ONE YOU DON'T ?
#GAMETHEORY
Why I think 170 is next heavy resistance and why it wont matterKinda the same as my last few charts, but with today's volume based primarily on SEC news, LTC price has a lot of good things going for it.
Now, while this is a technical analysis, the reasons behind it are mostly fundamental.
Resistance lines drawn at ~170$, based on downward channel. RSI is nowhere near overbought, and we're already blowing up toward 170. MACD daily shows a potential silver lining in bullish momentum.
The Volume on the daily chart is what is absolutely necessary. Nothing but bear vol. all month. But today with the SEC news we are getting it, and if a break out occurs... oh man. Always cautious and never overconfident though.
Now here's why I think we'll have no problem breaking out of this bearish channel soon. May not be today, could be tomorrow, could be next week. In the long run it doesn't matter, because it's going up eventually. The SEC news isn't "just news." It's an answer to many speculators who haven't bought into any cryptocurrencies yet, and to more who already have. The looming question that has brought DOZENS OF FUD CYCLES before (China, India, Korea... remember?...), "What happens if my cryptocurrencies get banned, and a selloff occurs?" Those cycles were in the last half of 2017 and beginning of 2018 only. My friends, I think this showed many people in crypto, old and new, that cryptos are not going anywhere soon.
BTCUSD: UpdateSideways action here...I'm waiting for fundamentals to evolve, the chart shows mixed signals that could develop into both a downtrend or an uptrend with equal chance...a bit leaning towards uptrend due to the long term chart, and also the poor follow through to the downside recently. Other than that, I don't yet have a good enough low risk setup here, so, I chose to wait in cash for now. Keep an eye out for the dates on chart.
I can think of a few possibilities, a bullish scenario would be if suddenly the SEC approves the Winkledudes ETF, which could result in everyone forgetting about the China regulatory crackdown risks, and cause a massive short squeeze rally. A bearish scenario would be if we don't get any new positives, and China confirms eventually that they are banning everything, and we see an increase in oversight everywhere, with maybe the CTFC and the SEC making US investors' life hard. The timing for this to unfold will be slow and painful, probably, since China won't make any official remarks, or at least it is unlikely to do so, before 1 month after the end of the Communist party congress, which takes place during October.
Let's wait and see...
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
BTC WEEKLY CHART: "The Panic Zone" It's F'UglyThis has to be the ugliest chart I've seen in a very very long time. Where to begin...
The top was put in when the US SEC ruled against allowing the Winklevoss twins to create a BTC backed ETF. They had spent the last 2 months accumulating asset to back the ETF and then dumped it all at once when it was obvious they should put their money somewhere else. That broke the steep solid red trend line I am calling the W.Voss trend.
Price has dropped down to support at the second red dot trend I am calling the Chinese Insider trend. Price bounced off the trend and now all the helium has come out of the balloon and price has dropped back down creating a giant $120 sized "Dead Cat Candle". A DCC is a harbinger of doom to the Chinese Insider rally. The fundamental here is that the PBoC , China's SEC, has shackled mainland based BTC exchanges creating all sorts of problems for the Chinese investor to divest. On top of that, OKcoin is teetering on extinction. I would bet my valuable wooden nickle collection that the dotted red trend is kaputski.
That leaves the 2 year rally as the only real long term support on the chart down around $850. So here's the real warning to y'all. The counter trend indicators are screaming SELL SELL SELL. The volume has been dropping for nearly 2 years. MACD is about to crossover to the dark side at its highest crossover point since the blow off top in early 2014. The Stochastic oscillator is showing that the current decline still has room to drop. It loosely predicts a decline to the feared PANIC ZONE. That implies a 2 year trend break and then a precipitous drop.
Fundamentals: Bitfinex issued an announcement about a grand fork in the BTC hash chain. They and about 12 other exchanges differ with the major miners about how to proceed. Bitfinex leads the market in hedging their bets allowing speculation on the future of each fork. In the mean time investors are bailing into other cryptos. Etherium has taken off, up 300% or more along with several other winners. Not all the cryptos are winners. Litecoin continues to lose value. All of this indecision along with the government thugs have cast a huge dark cloud over all of us.
Does this deter me? Not one bit. I'm looking to snatch up some cheap coin. I'm gonna wave my cowboy hat and ride this hydrogen bomb all the way to ground zero. YeeeeeHaaaaahhh.
ETHXBT: Ethereum has a weekly uptrendThe target hasn't been hit yet, but we might end up hitting it, and stalling there for some time, as I had explained in the monthly chart I posted. If you're long, look into closing margin longs on target, or if you own more than 50% account, go back to BTC to maintain equal weights in your cash account (spot, no leverage).
The support here is strong, so you can probably look into going long if this support zone holds.
$BTCUSD is right against resistance, derived from the ETF decision news price action. It's a good idea to short with a stop at 1190+, or simply buying $ETHXBT alternatively (if you didn't yet).
We closed our margin longs on the previous bar, and now reentered. With some luck, we won't go any lower before hitting the weekly 'Time at Mode' target.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Daily candle doesn´t look that bad.In perspective, that daily doesn´t look that bad. The Heikin Ashi is brutal but there was a pretty thick cushion to make BTC bounce. RSI is oversold and ADX paints a slight trend towards selling.
I think the next two upcoming ETF decisions won´t carry as much drama as this one. And that today, bitcoin came out stronger than before this decision.
In the short run, if there were any doubts, you can check bubble off of your worries list.
BTCUSD: FuturologyThis is another very prophetic post, like my ETHBTC one. I think that we will get an approval by the SEC, but, since the ETF won't bring money into Bitcoin right away, price will fall back to weekly support at 1139 give or take. Bottoming there, while big players accumulate positions, until the market is ready to trend up vigorously again.
The market is likely to frustrate the most people, so, I think first, it'll spook the short sellers by going up after the news, to then fall and stop out all longs, right before bottoming for some time.
My game plan, I'm holding my positions for 1 year at least, so, I'll trade around them using margin. My preferred vehicle to hedge the BTC decline is ETHXBT longs. I'll be looking to accumulate a hefty ETHBTC long position, in the order of 30%, when we have a decent enough retracement in it. It's close to weekly support, and in a weekly uptrend, with potential for a monthly rally after May, which would align with this prediction taking place, if ETHEUR rallies or doesn't fall, while BTC falls or doesn't rally as much.
Reccomendations: If conservative, sell down from 50% to 20% account long in BTCUSD and do nothing. Sell also down from 50% to 20% account in ETHEUR and do nothing. Then add back on dips or if they keep trending up proving you wrong.
If more brave, follow my game plan. Don't sell but hedge the decline with ETHBTC longs when safe.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Petrobras Brasileiro: Corruption undermines Fitch RatingI've flagged Brazil's state-owned mega-energy firm Petrobras Brasileiro ADR (NYSE: PBR) because the SEC is investigating the energy firm for money-laundering and corruption, thus skewing Fitch Ratings of PBR. Since PBR owns a Texan refinery, PBR it is accountable under US jurisdiction. PBR has been found in violation of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and "other laws". I highly suspect "other laws" may very well be The Racketeer Influenced and Corruption Organizations Act (RICO), taking into account PBR's "cartel" influence in the global energy sector.
$PBR closed at $10.50 at the closing bell; -$.34 or -3.14%. Its price range was $11.51 at pre-market, opening around $11.15 then plummeting down to $10.41 during Wall Street's Witching Hour.
What is more shocking is to learn that the Fitch Ratings just released at the same time; gave an upgrade on the series of notes to "BBB"; the "issuance of which are backed by the royalty flows owed by oil concessionaires, predominately, PBR, and Rio De Janeiro (RJS), of which 100% flows to RioPrevidencia (RP), the states pension fund."
In part, the USD 1.1 billion series 2014-3 notes 'BBB', Outlook Stable and BRl 2.4 billion series 2014-2 special indebtedness interests notes affirmed at 'AAAsf(bra)', Outlook Stable.
PBR's cartel is backing a capital investment program at USD 220 billion between 2014 and 2018.
PBR is an asset to be used when the market performance is shaky. Its personality
Currently the downside calculation of price per share: $.54.