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Secondgreatdepression

NASDAQ looking very weak on multiple indicatorsI continue to cobble together a trading system that will help me let my winners run while finding potential reversal points as I have gotten fairly good at buying the dip or finding longer term reversals but I leave to much on the table or I get out too soon. So lets break this down: The VSTOP system is pretty simple. The regular setting helps track areas of support and resistance and you can look at closing a position when it flips. When it does flip you have a secondary back up at the Multiple Time Frame VSTOP. Often you can get quick movements from the VSTOP to the VSTOP MTF. The current target for that move would be around $121. The On Balance Volume EMAs is one of my favorite indicators. Like many indicators it is a bit easier to but the dip than it is to short the top because of how difficult shorting can be. The purple circle does show an interesting consolidation below bearishly crossed 10 and 20 EMAs just above the 100 EMA. Should we get the expected move off the VSTOP the OBV situation would probably drive OBV below the 100 EMA and single worse things to come. Further that: the OBV showing hidden bearish divergence peak to peak as shown by the red arrow. That is very crucial and the OBV beneath the EMAs shows a lot of weakness. The blue circles on the MACD show that we have a very similar bearish cross compared to the black squares and purple circle. The MACD has a potential to cross zero and the MACD histogram is showing classic bearish divergence. Somewhat painfully for me is I know uptrends often have three highs (simple elliot wave) and the MACD helps show us where those highs are technically. I shorted the second high poorly. And finally, the 20D SMA is in a position to act as resistance. Based on this system I am cobbling together we could short and place a stop above the VSTOP and either take profit at the MTF VSTOP or look for a fib retracement of this uptrend. You could also zoom out and look for a wider support. If the price action breaks the VSTOP bullishly the setup is negated. If the OBV EMA situation is no longer bearishly stacked the setup is negated. If price action goes to the MTF VSTOP then bounces up the trade is just a swing trade and not a longer term trade.
NASDAQ:NDAQShort
by This_Guhy
2
Silver Versus the NASDAQ II: Moving Averages and Volatility StopMy use of VSTOP and the Multiple Time frame VSTOP has become part of my "autocharting" procedures to identify a price action that triggers a VSTOP to flip and then price action will trigger the VSTOP to flip and then price action to impulse to the MTF VSTOP. We see the black circle and arrow a time where the VSTOP flipped to bullish and shorly thereafter the price action impulses to the MTF VSTOP The last time that happened was Feb 2001 and silver went up 9.5x against the NASDAQ after that. This system I am tinkering with is still in its nascent stages and so I don't have a lot of back testing to look at to show results. Buyer (of this free post) beware. A Key point: First touch of the MTF either leads to a long term consolidation or rejection. The "touch" may not even connect so typically a take profit a few percent below appears to be prudent. This does not neccesarily apply to this because silver was still in accumulation. If this uptrend is simular to the last we should see most, if not all, of the following price actions occur: mostly green months as the price action soldiers through to the top of the EMA ribbon a burst through the EMA ribbon to the MTF VSTOP, a retest the EMA ribbon as support, price action goes on an absolute tear. On this tear there should be a retest of the MTF VSTOP as support and the base of the EMA ribbon. That would be the biggest sign to long and to go big. That is shown at the purple arrow. The EMA ribbon is going to be retested multiple times but the biggest retest will be when it has completed its bullish stack, with all short term EMAs above the longer term EMAs. Going big there will be emotionally difficult. We see that it happened at the bottom of the Great Recession. Also, the VSTOP is set to calculate at the close. If you see a mega green candle on the monthly chart that is so big that the VSTOP is pregnant, or inside the candle, it is generally time to go down to a lower timeframe and use the stop on that timeframe, which should be higher, to get more gains. That is a sign that the top is about to blow off. Finally we can see through the black parallel channel that price action between this pair can still channel or create tradable chart patterns over a decade. The signal there, in hindsight, is very clear VSTOP bearish MTF VSTOP bearish EMA ribbon confirmed as resistance Channel Support flipped to resistance Over the next 10-15 years I would be delighted to see a channel to help me trade silver against the NASDAQ. Please see the linked idea as to price targets on the Silver NASDAQ pair.
COMEX:SI1!Long
by This_Guhy
4
Silver Versus NASDAQ Part I: Decades Long BARR top ConcludedThe bump and run formation is something that is usually looked for with a lead in of six to eight weeks and not six to eight years, but as I charted silver futures against the NASDAQ I saw what was there. This post is long silver against everything, especially the NASDAQ The Bump and Run Top is one of the preeminent charts for understanding blow off tops and the subsequent hang over when the part is over. If you are looking at an asset that is prone to blow off it's top this is what you should be looking for. Likewise if something has a V Shaped bottom there is probably a Bump and Run Bottom in there. Be careful, you calculate the target via different methods and my first couple of times charting BARR tops I got it wrong. As always, Bulkowski wrote the definitive book on this chart pattern. thepatternsite.com Often you don't get full Lead In Height performance on the Bump and Run but here it appears we came damn close. Further, the Average True Range appears to have hit its galactic bottom but the price action has set a higher high compared when the BARR top began. The ATR is commonly used to find potential reversal point when it hits multi-year low on weekly or monthly timeframes and so it seems we have set a higher high Now since we set a higher high there is the chance that this bump and run formation has formed an Elliot 0, 1, and 2. If that is the case the typical next target would be 1.618 pr 2.618 of Wave 1, shown by the fib extension. One of the main inspirations for this post was Mike Maloney from GoldSilver.Com and his you tube channel. He reminded his viewers recently that precious metals have V-Shaped tops and rounded bottoms and the stock market often has rounded tops and V-shaped bottoms. Most of y'all probably are already familiar with his work. I plan on doing a few more ideas in this series so please stay tuned. They will show up in the Linked Ideas shortly.
COMEX:SI1!Long
by This_Guhy
Adam and Eve Top with nested Head and shoulders on SPXI have been looking at the 2020 open as a key level for a while now and in contemplation it appears that it has provided the resistance for the shoulders of a head and shoulders. Full performance would get us to this rising wedge I have also been looking at. A wider shot sees price action at the orange wedge resistance for the third time for a wedge drawn as such, using some SWAG to leave out some of the bottom of late March. while also showing a smaller, tighter, and more technical wedge shaded in yellow. It also shows the Adam and Eve Top. The hight of that yellow wedge is the price range SPX has mostly been in since late May. I've linked Bulkowski's website on these formations for you to do the calculations on entries and exits yourself. But as it stands these peaks are about 7 weeks apart and less than 3% off from one another so they meet some very narrow technical requirements thepatternsite.com In general almost everything is prone to being tested and retested, so the wedge support could get tested as resistance, and the key level at 2970 can be retested as resistance should it fail as support. I do see this as a bull trap and so ultimately I expect to take out the March low. There always remains the chance that this wedge I see breaks to the upside, so always be prepared for that kind of action.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by This_Guhy
Yeesh, SPX & NASDAQ TD Seq Red 1 on the Day and green 9 yearlySPX first due to its longer history. The year chart is absolutely dreadful as twice before the price action has tested the support generated by the sequential to devastating affect to the market. This potential ways off at this point. What isn't is is our chance for a waterfall drop on the daily chart. The NASDAQ doesn't have the same history as the S&P 500 but the 9 is still on the yearly chart and that red one on the daily. Lots of things are syncing up bearish, between the Covid death counts, the eurodollar pumping, these indicators suggesting reversal on a macro scale we are looking at the potential to a lost decade in the United States and world. Disclaimer: I am still getting use to this indicator but it is helpful having something help draw me ranges to evaluate and remove some of the human factor. I am looking to use this in conjunction with the VSTOP settings I have been experimenting to help me let my winners run.
AMEX:SPY
by This_Guhy
9
SPX and the Covid Death Numbers Part IIPreviously I looked at a potential "bullish" MACD cross on the Covid death numbers. Its been about five days since that cross has been established and I have added the Rate of Change to the death rates with an estimated path if the ROC continues as if it were a deep saucer formation. The deaths are going chart is going to be on the standard (non-log) scale for one main reason... I think the reported deaths will be going vertical again on this scale and it will resemble a tangent curve from trigonometry when viewed as such. The rate of Change is going to be on the log chart to provide detail. The MACD histogram for SPX on the 1D is showing a lot of hidden bearish divergence since April. This is a very technically weak place for the broadest based index fund for the United States, which means that the whole damn world is in a sticky spot technically. Below we have the charts for Florida, Texas and Arizona which where the new hot spots were being reported. All three of these states are starting to look like the next leg is upon us and the tangent curve will be coming shortly. Below are the death charts for India, South Africa and Germany, which are some of the biggest dominoes that can fall in their regions. There are always issues with disparate reporting standards but all three show rate of change curves that are starting to either flatten out or turn up. Please review some of the linked posts for more bearishness.
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AMEX:SPYShort
by This_Guhy
53
SPY at key level; TD Sequential=9 Against the Bollinger Band.Very quick post here. The bollinger band on default settings is suppose to contain some 95% of price action and being at the top can signal limited upside. The TD sequential often ends a trend at 9 or 13 so this is kinda a risky place to be be. The red arrows show where you could have made a decent entry in a day or swing trade, at least, and the blue show where you could be taking a small loss with some decent stop management. My linked post shows how I thought SPX might be setting a lower high and in that post my alternative scenario would be retesting the open of 2020 as resistance, and here we are. IF we can get past the Bollinger band , increasing rate of COVID deaths , the TD printing a 9, and the 3 day MACD bearish divergence we could start a new uptrend and change my bias.
AMEX:SPYShort
by This_Guhy
3
S&P Starting to show stress (9 Season Rainbow)The Nine Season Rainbow, by some sort of black box logic unbeknownst to me, is starting to show stress similar to when the dump happened in February. The Purple box shows the signal was in on the lower time frames and the EMAs quickly crossed bearishly. From there the spill was intense and the 48 period EMA was very controlling n the way down, locking in the first bear trap around $2100. The orange box shows where a wedge and another sell signal on the Rainbow triggered and I have to admit, I played this for a small loss. I was in the money and didn't trail my stops down and when I got no where near the performance I was expecting I had to close for that L. There was a similar signal at the apex of that wedge that I let go by and I am currently in SXPU as of the beginning of the fuscia box. The open of 2020 has been support and resistance for about seven months and I am betting that it will continue as resistance. The Covid deaths in the US are picking up (please see the linked post for that) and now the 9Season Rainbow is showing a potential roof is in. The rising wedge has turned into a double top but despite any resilience in that formation it is still setting a lower high from the purple box. If resistance is clearly broken then there is only blue sky upside but that is still a minority position of mine.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by This_Guhy
1
Paper Silver at 400W MA Resistance still facing years of declineI have been charting the bearish case for silver for about six months and this chart has popped up in one form or another several times. It is still obvious that price action is being compressed between the 200W and 400W SMAs. When price action slipped the 200W last there was basically a flash crash to 1500W. What did this legendary rally get us on the daily chart? Our third lower high in almost 10 months. Price may still come up and test the trendline in the chart below, but it looks pretty bearish right now. I continue to find studying the OBV with EMAs interesting. The OBV seems to broadly follow many of the fundamentals in charting with support turning to resistance and being rejected and supported by longer term EMAs. It looks like price action will work its way deeper into the wedge and the OBV will go deeper into the triangle for the next couple of years. The good news is, after silver struggles through this depression/Recession I basically see it in a massive acceding triangle. We are going to have a banger of a decade to fifteen years if I see this right.
COMEX:SI1!Short
by This_Guhy
6
Bubbles: Comparing BTC to Gold, Again. Introduction BTCUSD is being tracked on the BLX chart as it has the longest history and likewise Gold is on the Futures ticker likewise for the history and both are on the weekly time frame. Due to the speed of crypto the cart covers less time overall. The main chart is BLX and the chart below is gold centered on 2008 to 2016. Key Concepts Fundamental charting over all other indicators Support and resistance flipping (either trendlines or horizontal levels) After you have your chart patterns, look at volume for confirmation on all patterns. After Volume, any other indicator you like. Narrative I have learned a lot since I have been trading and charting over the last 3 years to cobble together a system that makes me money consistently and one that I can manage emotionally. And because we live in an age of bubbles I have persevered over bubble charts I have looked to make money off of the popping. I still get out too early on the uptrend, which is fine so long as I don't go short too soon. The charts should have a remarkable similarity. The main difference is we could add some trendlines to the down leg of Gold after the hammer and show how it channeled down and wedged and recovered, but that distracts a bit from the big picture. The big picture twice on each chart the grey filled ovals show where the price action establish and confirmed a long term black trend line. The black outline oval shows where the black trendline is confirmed as resistance The blue descending triangle shows price action is setting a lower high. The Fib extension shows just how low the price action can go based on Gold. it does not mean 100% that we will almost touch the 2.414 fib extension and the high wick off to the left on Bitcoin suggest we will not go that low, so we will be just about to touch the 2.0 fib extension on bitcoin. Finally we have the OBV EMA situation (shown below). The purple arrows show hidden bearish divergence (lower high on price, higher high on the indicator). So we are at resistance at both the triangle and this rising trendline and the volume is divergent. We might be trading at this resistance for a couple of weeks before the downtrend resumes. It is going to take a while for the optimism to fade. Closing thoughts The markets are all interconnected through traders and investors. And when they need liquidity they are going to take it from where ever they can. The incoming Second Great Depression is going to lead to selling off whatever assets people can in order to pay their bills and support their families, and save their businesses. This means selling of things that you may think are immune. I still imagine the locust swarm leading to food shortages around the world and people dumping silver and gold for grain. In the background of all of this is Elliot wave theory, meaning that the uptrend on bitcoin when this is over will be mind boggling. It is also why I think we will stay above 2.0 fib extension on the downtrend. I expect we will see some type of wedge formation and BARR bottom developing over the next couple of years so the price action is currently creating the lead in trend line. I am just a few years away from never having to work again, God willing. Please see the linked post for some of my most accurate calls, some more recent than others.
BNC:BLXShort
by This_Guhy
6
Comparing bear flags on the S&P 500.The left chart has our current set of circumstances on the 12H settings and the right has the previous bear flag on the 4H settings. As this move matures we will have to look at higher and higher time frames to determine which one is controlling. The rising red arrow shows on both MACD histograms shows classic bearish divergence between the indicator and price action. The purple arrows shows hidden bearish divergence about to rip this uptrend apart. The 4h chart had a clean cross of the MACD and signal line while the 12h chart shows a sloppier move. The blue fractal is a lot harder to see scrunched off to the left but an honest look at the MACD required such. The trend lines should be very similar. The resistance held for many bars and then the price action pulls away at the bollinger band. From there previous support turns to resistance and we get a rough double top formation. A second test of the bollinger band at this new resistance and the uptrend is over. And finally the volume situation is similar. These chars are the daily for the left chart and hourly for the right. The formations have falling volume generally and the OBV and OBV 10 and 20 are clearly under the 100 OBV EMA. A very bearish situation on price action and volume action. Please see the linked post for some target setting and broader context.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by This_Guhy
The Second Great Depression Scenario for SPX, XAG and XAU"Too Terrible to Contemplate" would be the byline of this post if I wasn't struck by the fascination of contemplating if this was a Second Great Depression where would by target be? Either for my short position or when would I finally go long again? Data on the SPX was pretty sparce in the olden days as there was a lot of math and charting to be done by hand. To help make that visible I have the 1 EMA on the chart. It does not provide OHLC candles but it is better than nothing. You can break this down into multiple stages but I am going to keep this simple. Blue phase First level of long term consolidation in the uptrend. Once this is complete price action squirted up and it creates a point of contact on the trend line. Grey Phase Second level of consolidation and a bounce at the trendline. There was a series of lower lows that I see as creating a red trend line that was ultimately the target of the panic selling of the Great Depression. In Prior to the GD the price acton tested the resistance of the blue phase and confirmed it as support three times before ending in a parabolic move to the upside. A set up to the Second Great Depression does not have price action testing previous resistance as support and it also does not terminate in a parabolic move. There are a series of lower lows that create another red trend line that could be a target for panic selling in the Second Great Depression. Purple Phase Bulls get an absolute fonging. Like Jesus cleansing the temple mount of merchants fonging. In the Great Depression the black trend line did temporary act as support as price action stalled but eventually the black line failed and price action dipped over 40%. The red trendline comes into play and the S&P surges when it finds it as support ... to a lower high and dump once more. It is not until price action find support on the 600 month EMA that price action has a foundation to start setting relatively higher highs. Senario Casting Somehow despite the yield curve inversion, repo market drama, disease and quarantine, and over-indebtedness of the world price action finds support on the black trend line & 400 month EMA and continues upward on is merry way. Perhaps even parabolically! (I consider that the least likely scenario). This scenario also includes the S&P becoming range bound and somehow moving sideways for 5 years before hitting the black trend line and going up again. Price action replays the Second Great Depression like it does the first. The black trend line is broken and it isn't until the red trendline comes into play that it makes sense to go long in equities and Wall Street. There may be plenty of main street opportunities and all that, but Wall Street still has its head where the sun don't shine. (at this point I think this is my highest probability scenario) Somehow price action finds support somewhere between the black and red trendline. Perhaps on the 1000 EMA or SMA (not shown). It is easy to imagine all of the tradingview posts, all the twits, youtubers and talking heads on TV talking about the 1000M SMA/EMA and the support to be found thereon. This does not sound unlike or unreasonable especially if price action is near $1,000 and the 1000M MA. Silver and Gold Now for the silverrbos and the goldchads. Many experienced traders are expecting some selling of paper gold and silver as traders get margin called on their equities positions and have to sell what they can (not what they want) while they hold on their way to liquidation. And these experienced traders are happy to hold through the dip and accumulate more physical precious metals at better prices. But at a certain point people are going to have to sell their physical precious metals if this gets really bad. The paper losses are one thing, that can be managed. But what happens when a lot of the older generation dies, unfortunately from corona-virus or natural causes, and their inheritors dump the precious metals because they don't appreciate them, or because the selling of paper gold and silver is driving down the spot price? The price of gold was down from 1929 to 1931 and flat from 1929 to 1932 Year 1929 $20.63 1930 $20.65 1931 $17.06 1932 $20.69 >https://www.thebalance.com/gold-price-history-3305646 Silver likewise was kicked in the balls and went from near $8 to sub $5. >https://www.macrotrends.net/1470/historical-silver-prices-100-year-chart Closing Remarks I do this for free. I am not a financial adviser or a Certified Market Technician. This tv Idea is grand in scope and if you like it just give it a like and if you reference it cite me. If I am right there is a lot of money to be made to the downside so long as you don't FOMO into a short squeeze and a lot of money to be lost if you hold. If I am wrong then meh, this wasn't financial advise anyway. As i said, I do this for free without any credentials. Please see some of the linked post for a wider macro view before you make your conclusions.
SP:SPXShort
by This_Guhy
13