BTC - What I expect to happen nextMy overall 2022 target got hit - $16k. But I was awaiting this last dip before a relief rally - although that one got defended by bulls and it never happened.
New Year euphoria took over and we're headed directly into the relief rally - I expect now a retracement to around $19k to create the handle of this cupandhandle pattern . Next step would be the skyrocketing move of this accumulation (and fractal confirms) to $ 25k-28k. Leverage positions show a big gap between 28 and 33k - So I am pretty confident we can experience a liquidity grab all the way to 28k area, but we possibly won't see enough fuel to get to above $33k - unless horny bears will keep shorting.
Timespan: This handle dip should get created until 25 Jan - 01 Feb, and the squeeze should happen just after - during the first half of February.
I expect FED to start cutting rates and markets to start going down big time from there.
Will keep monitoring this. Good luck !
Secretguy
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE vs SPXSo as you see - what comes down, must go up - UNEMPLOYMENT RATE is at record lows right now and when it did that - after some consolidation - it sttarted to grow - each time this happened, SPX entered a bear market.
Calculating the amount of days since the breakout of the UNRATE trend - it is a range of ~ 100 to 400 days before starting the decline on SPX - right now it looks like UNRATE has broken the trend for more than 300 days already.
So the decline isn't far. We haven't seen the worst yet.
DXY - fractal foundSo I have found this fractal - the ressamblance is uncanny. This also confirms a bit what I expect to happen - stocks should go a bit lower (Same for crypto) making DXY push to the upside for a fakeout - and then everything should bounce. Fractal agrees with that.
So still expecting a fakeout and then a big drop (high timeframe retest) of DXY
VIX - idea is still clear2008 didn't repeat 1:1, but history tend to rhyme - and so it is doing right now.
VIX dropped lower than it should - very likely manipulation - but is holding a certain level - when I checked for any curve that could be adjusted to it - I noticed a small detail - 2021 fakeout.
2021 was the last push to the upside - the one that broke VIX trend - but now is holding to it once again. The channel is now clear and we are at the bottom of it.
Not bullish at all for stocks.
Vix likely to bounce up soon.
BTC - example from another asset (fractal)So here is a fractal that was moving in a very similar way - from another timeframe so the scale of price movements are slightly off - but still the story is the same.
First we experience a double bear flag at a similar level - ended in a sell-off. That selloff turning back up and creating an illussion of a strong bounce - This get's silenced for a final selloff after.
We are missing the final selloff here.
You're welcome!
BTC - Wyckof AccumulationHear me out on this.
Since we started falling in 2021 - On-chain data has been showing big retail buying together with whale sell-offs.
But since a few levels - 28k downward - Bigger accumulations have been happening (still with whale selloffs in the background).
This distribution got heavily mixed with accumulation and has landed on my 2021's prediction: 16k.
Now, around 16k, whales have been starting accumulating aswell, and the Wyckoff pattern being formed for the last few months is proof of it.
BUT the second top didn't happen - why?
The price is meant to reach certain area ! And it didn't yet. Because of the heavy accumulation (Buy the dip!) price hasn't reached the levels that it was meant to, therefore the price is being dragged lower to reach it during the Spring dip. It also saved the market from accumulating even more shorts at 20k levels.
The timing though is on point and it will stick that way - Spring is ahead and it will happen - and Mid December is the time when we long Crypto for a bounce.
NASDAQ - the final countdownUnexplicable after-news euphoria is calming down and we should take profits after last push ups. We are a week away from knowing if we will go into a big selloff - or if we're gonna detach from this path.
Good luck !
I'm full short.
BTCUSD - You want to save this chart (MID TERM)I know there is no much Technical Analysis on this chart - this is just the result.
I have published many charts on stocks, crypto and economic fundamentals that prove this would be the trajectory until April 2023. And this is what I expect.
If you want to sit on the sidelines - feel welcome to monitor this chart every once in a while.
If you want to trade it - you are welcome.
Cheers !
SPX - clear as a panorama in the mistI marked the gap that SPX is trying to close - and it matches with the top of the channel it is in - right now it is a good spot to start a retracement, therefore this week looks bearish to me - but a final push towards mid December could happen - as marked on the chart. If that plays out - what's coming next is clearer than a baby's butt.
Down, then Up. Then DOWN.
Cheers!