BTCUSD - question when...The weekly will go for the touch of that bottom extreme. It is likely it could pump up first and then drop - watchout for NY seession open.
Secretguy
DXY has been dancing, but......but it has been dancing below the curve - and now that it touched the green area - it is free to free-fall for some time and take a rest - this makes me bullish for stocks and crypto. Parabolic time has ended.
SPX - overexhaustedOverexhausted on the short side - has touched bottom on many indicators and sits now at support - losing it will be very volatile, but a bounce could happen aswell from here.
The up-and-down pattern that it has lately formed several times has been fulfilled, but this time the new low is at the same level as the previous one - keep monitoring as Russian war can be a trigger here. I am bullish until clear cross.
UNI - not bullish let me rephrase - It looks okay for short term, but I wouldn't be expecting it to break up - unless whole crypto bounces up. Taking into account nowadays situation - I'd expect a retouch of the top of the trendline and a fall to lower support. UNI has been pumped since the beginning which suggests to me that it was artificially pumped to get liquidity into this asset. More downside to me.
SPX/US10Y/VIX - you are welcomeHey !! So I've been digging and experimenting with multiple market instrument relations and I have picked those three - SPX, 10 year bonds and VIX as they are the most powerful of all. And I have noticed it has been creating a really clear trend of up and downs - comparing it to SPX it has shown that everytime we have touched the bottom trendline - the market bounced - ONLY in 2008 we have crashed way below - but whoever has bought below that trendline - was happy a few years later.
Where are we now? At the lower trendline - a bounce is coded in but I am more than certain, that we will repeat 2008's crash to say the least. We're good for a bounce now, my absolute bottom sits at the bottom trendline.
Monitor the breakout!
PS : Also - the peak from AUG 2020 was lower in price on SPX than we are now.
US30Y just needs some airIt needs air and to me this is it - correction time, eoy should be bullish.
BTCUSD keeps holdingit keeps holding this level and most likely should go for a retest of 50ema weekly (blue line) at 30-31k in the next month or two.
We held it for too long. Also bottom curve holding nicely - crossing it would be bad.
BTC against SPXCrypto is trying to hold it's position - and it looks like this macro double bottom could play out into a small relief for crypto outperforming stocks - It could play out in 2 different ways - either stocks crash and crypto holds, or both bounce up - with crypto bouncing higher.
Either way expecting it to happen soon. Most likely to 200 weekly ema.
SPX playedout greatlyWe're where we should - at lowest lows of this year - additionally 200 ema weekly holding us here - I expect the bounce to happen - specially with dxy touching ceiling.
Vix looks scaryVix has crossed this curve up - this is really bad - I give it a final chance to recover after NY opens (specially with dxy at local ceilings) - if not - sky is the limit here.
DXY parabolic? but...... but it just reached my absolute local tops - green area, double curve channel and channel's top trendline - Finally ! We should see that correction happen.
BTCUSDT Wyckoff - just a theoryDon't hate me for this.
I expect a bounce, not straight fall down - therefore so far this last few weeks pattern reminded me of something....
Cheers!
DXY Weekly perspectiveSo here it is - so far it is going for my bear market target.
First we will attack the green area around 115$ and correct from it - and total target until 2024 should be all-time-highs at $150+.
That's where we can focus on re-buying assets.
SPX Vs FEDFUNDS - NOT BEAR MARKET YETAs you can see on the chart - everytime the FedFunds have topped and consolidated - stocks topped aswell and started its own bear market. Now, what we think is a top on SPX, may have been just a strong push which was later strongly corrected.
FedFunds haven't yet topped out and entered into consolidation here - although it is really near.
Based on that - highly likely to still see wonders before really declining.
Summary - Market knows what's coming and have reacted overly bearish. Once it gets exhausted with the bearishness, it may retest aths or even set new ones before entering the real bear market leading to recession and depression.
Stay safe !
BTCUSD Spot VS Perpetuals !!This whole low range last few weeks was mainly driven by perpetuals - but today - day after FOMC, we have fist signs of spot volume higher than perpetuals - and it is to the upside. That is good! Market doesn't seem so bearish after hearing the results - relief time
BTC.D hmmmm...It looks like the breakout has lead to consolidation around resistance - forming lows into a curve - this only leads me to think BTC could still go up but soon later will break down - possibly allowing ALTS to pump a bit. Keep monitoring this - for now bullish.
BTCUSD agitated, but holdingThe curve is still holding the price - the logical would be break to the upside and retest that higher descending trendline - we need to monitor what NY market does today at the opening - remaining bullish short term.
DXY just doesn't careit has crossed the curve, meaning it can go straight to 115 area. As easy as that - although if today it gets cancelled and comes back down - small relief for stocks - all depends of today.
SPX reacted bearish, BUT...It is only fulfilling the patterns it has created lately + it has closed an open gap it left behind.
Reaching fib level + RSI in the area from where it tends to bounce - I remain bullish.
VIX spiked, but......but came down immediately afterwards - it was scary for a second - but it still feels like it needs a retest lower parts before attempting to break to the upside.
Without a confirmed breakout - I'm expecting a higher low first.
NASDAQ you want to see thisObeying my curvy channel - so long story short - bullish until it hits the top of the curve - additionally a second tp level at orange trend line - if it gets rejected at these - I'll sell everything.
VIX - 2007-2008 pattern?Have been analysing all VIX recoveries after big drops and 90% of them were the same - a curve to the downsidefor some time until a rounded bottom appeared and pumped the value sky-high crossing the long-term curve.
This time it is different. We recovered from last big drop (Covid Crash) the same way as always - but we didn't pump as we used to - and this has happened just once before - 2007-2008. The top rounded to the downside and the bottom acted like breaking down (bullish for stocks) creating an illusion of a bull market. The rest happened as you can see - the it bounced down again but creating a higher low, which was an indication of willing to go up and break the rounded top.
This time we have the same exact situation, but we are missing one more leg down. Will we repeat that same behaviour just before the crash? Meaning a last stock/risk-on assets pump before falling ?
Stay safe.
