BTC All-Time-ChartEverything is on the chart - just to fill your perspective with additional nuances. Sorry and you're welcome!
Secretguy
BTCUSD vs US01YUS10Y has been crazy lately. It has broken an all time down-trend channel and was moving just like we would like BTC to move. But anyways... Why does this affect the market ?
When confidence is high, 10-year bond prices fall and yields climb. This is because investors believe they can find higher-yielding investments elsewhere and do not believe they need to be conservative.
In other terms - if risk assets bad, us10y good and vice-versa. As we can tell by the chart - investors have been running away to US Government backed Treasury bond to save themselves from the drops. But what now, when we're reaching high levels?
At first US10Y was driving up together with the rest of the markets - since covid's '20 crash we experienced a massive bounce (or pump) on all assets. This positive correlation has lasted until breaking the descending resistance on US10Y - since then the correlation was only negative for crypto and it is there, where risk-assets investors started saving their funds into bonds.
Right now US10Y is approaching a really big confluence of resistance: ascending triangle target, long time resistance level and top of curvy channel. Crossing this is almost impossible, specially if last weeks were growing evenly week by week creating a stair-like growth . And those like to drop heavily afterwards... + we're at resistance (reminder).
If US10Y bounces down now, it would mean BTC $17k was a local bottom (not long term, just for now!) and could make up all the fall it had until now as investors would re-enter risk-on assets
Where would BTC bounce to ? $38k-$40k if euphoria doesn't drive it further. It was since then when BTC started falling down without retesting broken levels.
Hope this helped you understand markets a little bit more today. If there's nothing new to you here - you are an MVP.
Cheers!
PS: Too early to judge, but if the price bounces to those levels - it would create a cup/handle pattern.
All is in FED's hands now.
BTCUSD Quick ! What's to come on LTF!Curvy channels always end up the same way - retracement to the downside - but keep an eye on the level I marked with the arrow - RSI will most likely get oversold there - it will be a sign to long!
Summary: Short now, Long later.
Cheers!
ALTPERP what would you say, huh?Last several months were brutal already, making us a bit sceptic about further lows as how long can this go ?!
But also a big chunk of the market is really focused on catching really low prices, accepting the way we are going. That would be too easy. Here we landed on great support and we are close to the top of the descending channel. It looks like a breakout to the upside could be possible, having in mind RSI got totally oversold - and we could have a small run up to retest a strong resistance, before retesting the bottom of the bear market.
Stay safe.
USDT is whisperingThe result is pretty similar to DXY, but the way the story is told is different.
Here we can see a top being retested a few times, forming a potential Head and Shoulders. If the price fills the pattern - it will need to confirm it at the 0.618 fib level, which is one of the most common correction levels and it sits at strong support. It is then when we need to monitor on what it will do - if the HS gets confirmed - we happy until the bottom of the growing channel. If we fail - we will see that brutal side of the bear market on stocks and crypto.
Good luck and stay safe!
ETHUSD You will unfollow me after thisWell... I don't make the rules. Hate the game, not the gamer.
Having that said - curvy channels are more than powerful and are yet to be "traditionalized" in this game. Until they are a common thing, they will show great reversal points - and on the weekly chart here - we can see the price has been obeying the top curvy channel and hasn't touched the bottom for a very long time.
Not saying we're going there in 1 blow - but that's the bottom of the bear market to me.
Imagine the depression that leads to that.
BTC - you don't want to see this- Lack of power
- At support with already strong weekly candle
- H&S
- Close to an all-time curve
- Even with a short-squeeze - we're headed to that level.
The good news is that it will bounce greatly from there.
BTC/SPX forming a curvy channelSo far the relation crypto/stocks hasn't played out and double bottom with a reverse H&S hasn't been confirmed - therefore it keeps withing the descending triangle pattern but also formy a curvy channel - at which we are at the bottom (is that correct english?). Anyways - I would expect Crypto to recover a bit from there, if it doesn't .... Well - I marked the next support level. This would be brutal.
DXY Showing weaknessIt had a really strong up-run, but now it's showing signs of weaknes forming a down-curved channel at the top - ofcourse if it crosses the line it will spike to the above resistance, but from where I see it - it looks like it's time to lose this ascending wedge and correct a bit. Expecting a break to the downside soon. Possibly FED's meeting will be a trigger.
SPX trying to go down, but...SPX has been fulfilling the pattern it has created with last falls - and tried to reach the fib level once more - We need more fundamental context on where its headed. I will post an updated on that after Fed's meeting, but so far it looks like weekly 200 ema shows great attraction to the price - this will either form a double bottom .... or a cross - which would lead VIX to spike up and make us witnesses of a great fall.
Stick around for the updated.
VIX whats next?Vix did what we expected - it bounced up respecting the curvy channel and is now dancing at the top. CPI came out a bit better, but that is no relief in thinking the bear market is gone. We didn't even hit the expected progress in this subject, therefore I remain bearish long term.
I expect VIX to respect the curve here and try and retest lows (red line more likely), but if we cross the channel - we will go as the green line shows - meaning brutal bear market reality.
Keep safe either way, cause all ways lead in 1 direction at the end.
SOL Huge Weekly H&SWell, this isn't what we want to see.
Sol has tried to break the curvy channel, which would gain volatility and push the price most likely up. But fundamentals aren't favorable for the markets and price is still within that range - if it doesn't breakout soon, It risks breaking out to the downside, fulfilling the Head and Shoulders pattern with an extremely low target.
Have in mind it can still fakeout to the downside - the HS needs a succsessful retest before proceeding further. Watch this area!
Good luck!
SPX - played out nicelyPlaying out nicely, same pattern - we bounced and are headed down. Target is at the marked fib level - possibly lower if we gain volatility after FED's hike.
BTCUSDT - played out nicelyWe dropped as mentioned before - even a bit lower than expected. This is mainly because the push up was driven by futures, not spot.
Right now I believe we're on the verge of going down - but a final squeeze could happen before.
Short term bullish, but mid term bearish.
BTC/SPX We hit exactly my target at 107M and it bounced down. Right now we formed big H&S on the HTF second bottom - and I expect the price to retest that red trendline - if we manage to cross it - dashed orange line ahead. But if we don't, the fall will be brutal.
VIX - really bearish for stocksWorking out like a charm - it respected the first trendline and bounced exactly to the top of the curvy channel.
Now, if we cross this one - this is doom to me already. We will gain volatility up and stocks will crash heavy - the last hope will be at 32-33 level but I dont think it will hold a big volatility push.
Good luck.
Inflation Rate - Quick ReminderI know this chart isn't driven by TA, but when I see a long-multiyear-trendline that fits all highest inflations in US history (recorded) - I won't ignore it. In the last months we've hit it - crossed it - and lately retested it.
Today keep you eye on what's next.
BTC - LTF AnalysisToday CPI - so before anything - we should wait for the results and see how the market reacts. If it wasn't for that, I'd say M15 just retested broken ascending wedge and hit a major resistance confluence and would aim to go for the bottom of the ascending channel.
Momenter and HighsLows are slowly reversing down.
My Mid term top is retest of $25k - if we cross 25,2k - I will turn bullish. Going back to $24k will turn me bearish again.
BTC Longs vs. ShortsWe still haven't broken the sentiment on Crypto - The dip is not in -- too much longs around.
The more I hear it is in, the more I am sure it is not.
Good luck.
BTC.D approaching resistanceWedge's target is at a major resistance confluence - could push a bit higher, but we should see a correction entering soon
BTC - Confluence of resistanceThe push proceeded totally as expected, reaching the wedge's target.
right now we have overbought indicators everywhere (TrendExhaustion, VolumeTrend, HighsLows, RSI) creating with last push a bearish divergence on resistance.
I am bearish specially seeing stock's sentiment at resistance aswell, if we cross it in one blow - will turn even more bearish. My top sits at 24,8k area.
BTC/SPX keeps pushinAs expected - Crypto is outperforming stocks until it will reach the red trendline - from there either a breakout and start of a crypto bull run, or a bounce and further descending triangle creation.
Bullish till it touches that trendline.
SPX some pattern developedLately we've seen bigger waves down together with correction bounces - in which market turned bullish each time. As you can see - this pattern has repeated twice, each time getting deeper - right now we managed to hold the bears a bit for some time, but the pattern still persists - this time not aiming so deep, but still allowing to think we can retest the local bottoms at least one more time. VIX's curves (check VIX idea) is also creating a curvy channel with chances of pump up after the breakout (Which would be bearish for SPX).
Either way - today and tomorrow will be crutial for next weeks - We need to monitor those marked areas and seek breakouts with volumes.
I remain bearish.
Cheers!
