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May Market Outlook, Sectors Rotation, Relative Strength AnalysisSince February, the commodities asset class has surged ahead, overshadowing the S&P 500's faltering performance. This notable shift in market dynamics underscores the resilience and strength exhibited by commodities during this period. Of particular interest are the XLE and XLU sectors, which have emerged as frontrunners since early March. This transition coincided with the decline in momentum of previously dominant sectors like XLK and SMH (refer to Fig. 2). Notably, XLE and XLU, characterized as growth defensive sectors, have thrived amidst market downturns. Investing in commodities and energy/utility sectors during these phases could have yielded significant profits, with select energy stocks boasting returns exceeding 25%, while the S&P 500 experienced an approximate 10% decline. Looking ahead to May, it's anticipated that XLE and XLU will maintain their market leadership, albeit with a slight loss in momentum. However, investors are advised to remain vigilant as these sectors may soon witness a change in dynamics. It's crucial to employ stop limit orders to safeguard profits in such volatile conditions. Following the current trajectory, XLY, XLRE, and XLF are poised to emerge as significant players in the market cycle (refer to Fig. 3&4). However, it's important to note that these sectors are susceptible to rapid momentum shifts, particularly when XLK and XLC regain momentum. Looking towards June, indications suggest that XLK and XLC will likely regain prominence in the market. For buy-and-hold investors, this presents an opportune moment to consider purchasing assets during market dips. Considering these market dynamics, my top investment picks are (TSLA), (GOOG), (AAPL), (ORCL), and Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO). These companies demonstrate strong growth potential, especially when timed strategically to align with sector rotation leadership shifts.
AMEX:XLELong
by MESHANL
Sector Rotation Before CPI (SPY, QQQ)Clear sector rotation has been observed a day before CPI data release on Tuesday morning. It seems traders are getting out of Technology ( AMEX:XLK ) stocks and defensive sectors like Utilities ( AMEX:XLU ), Basic Materials ( AMEX:XLB ) as well as Industrials ( AMEX:XLI ) have been climbing up. HIGHLIGHT: The chart depicts S&P 500 ETF ( AMEX:SPY ) along with a ranking of all the major sectors at the bottom of the chart in an hourly setup. During the final hours of the last trading day (Monday) there has been a sharp sell-off of tech stocks as the industrials and basic materials have climbed up in strength. A slow decline in Health Care ( AMEX:XLV ) and gradual rise in Financials ( AMEX:XLF ) over last few days have also been observed. Please note that the first CPI of the year (January) usually creates volatility in the market. Which has also been observed in above 3% rise in the Volatility Index ( CBOE:VIX / AMEX:UVXY ) looking into the CPI release. s3.tradingview.com
AMEX:SPY
by Trading-Economist
Learning to stay ahead of market trends - 2023 & BeyondFollow my research. Learn why I expect 2023 to be a very difficult year for active traders and how you can avoid all the risks by modifying your capital allocation levels RIGHT NOW. You don't have to stand in front of a freight train or try to force trades when they are not opportunistic. You could just wait for the better setup in July/Aug 2023 and ride out Wave-3. Do you want to gain profits or just try to gamble your capital away? Sure, if you are a day trader, you may be able to trade some of the bigger price swings over the next 5+ months. But, most of the price action is going to be in ETFs and select US stock sectors. Learn to position your trades to capitalize when opportunities are the RICHEST for success. Wave-1 has nearly ended. You are trying to catch the last 5% to 7%+ of an uptrend before the US markets will slide into a Wave-2 correction. Are you sure you want to risk a boatload of capital at the end of Wave-1 right now? Knowing when to trade is important. Knowing when NOT to trade is even more important. Make sure you are getting reliable information, content, and research. Trading is not about trying to be the next zero-Billionaire in 25 days - it is about surviving and growing your accounts over the next 5 to 10+ year efficiently. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
Daily Sector WatchNo good picks for today. Still not breaking the bear market. 🟢WEED STOCKS TOP 10 Teradyne Curaleaf Holdings Green Thumb Industries Trulieve Cannabis Corp Canopy Growth Corp Verano Holdings Corp Cronos Group Inc Tilray Brands Inc Cresco Labs Inc SNDL Inc 🔴CRYPTO COINS TOP 10 Bitcoin Ethereum Binance Coin XRP Dogecoin ADA Matic Tron Dot Solana 🟣INDEXES US30 S&P 500 FRA40 GER30 NTH25 ASX200 EUSTX50 JPN225 HK50 Banknifty 🔵SPACE STOCKS TOP 10 Iridium Communications Inc Ses Rocket Lab USA Inc Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings Inc Viasat Maxar Technologies Eutelsat Communications Astra Space Inc Sats Planet Labs 🟤RETAIL FOOD STOCKS TOP 10 Kroger Company Albertsons Company Sendas Distribiduira S A Sprouts Farmers Market Grocery Outlet Holdings Weis Market Inc Ingles Markets Inc Arko Corp Companhia Brasileira De Distribuidao American Beyond Meat alcohol, cars, big tech
NASDAQ:BYND
by Honestcowboy
2
Daily Sector Watch : Will Eutelsat Communications recover?Our 2 leading sectors are Crypto and Space at the moment. While Weed stocks have not shown any sign of recovery yet. Todays stock pick is ETCMY , a space stock that has been underperforming the rest of the sector for a while and is stuck at a support area. Let's compare the index to the stock: Index: Stock: Below a closer look at the 5 sectors. Bright color means bullish activity on a stock. 🟢WEED STOCKS TOP 10 Teradyne Curaleaf Holdings Green Thumb Industries Trulieve Cannabis Corp Canopy Growth Corp Verano Holdings Corp Cronos Group Inc Tilray Brands Inc Cresco Labs Inc SNDL Inc 🔴CRYPTO COINS TOP 10 Bitcoin Ethereum Binance Coin XRP Dogecoin ADA Matic Tron Dot Solana 🟣INDEXES US30 S&P 500 FRA40 GER30 NTH25 ASX200 EUSTX50 JPN225 HK50 Banknifty 🔵SPACE STOCKS TOP 10 Iridium Communications Inc Ses Rocket Lab USA Inc Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings Inc Viasat Maxar Technologies Eutelsat Communications Astra Space Inc Sats Planet Labs 🟤RETAIL FOOD STOCKS TOP 10 Kroger Company Albertsons Company Sendas Distribiduira S A Sprouts Farmers Market Grocery Outlet Holdings Weis Market Inc Ingles Markets Inc Arko Corp Companhia Brasileira De Distribuidao American Beyond Meat
OTC:ETCMY
by Honestcowboy
Sector Rotation Model in TradingviewI have decoded the following model in Tradingview This is the sector rotation model where different sectors are stronger at different points in the economic cycle. Here my results in Tradingview by creating this ad-hoc layout I compare relative strengths of sectors at different points in the economic cycle with sectors which are stronger at previous economic cycle. - dark red zone = Full Recession - light green zone = Early Recovery - dark green zone = Full Recovery - light red zone = Early Recession Example: Industrial sectors is seen strong during the early recovery. I want to see it stronger than Tech sector (which is strong during full recession, the previous economic cycle ) for confirmation of the actual early recovery cycle actually priced by investors. Adding 200-periods and 50-periods simple moving averages (SMA) for better defining the trend. - chart above SMA50 and SMA200 = bullish = confirmation of the economic cycle - chart under SMA50 and SMA200 = bearish = not a confirmation of the economic cycle - chart under SMA50 or SMA200 = neutral = uncertainty, not a confirmation of the economic cycle. What actually Mr. Market is pricing now? How you can see in the figure above, we have more confirmations (V symbols) at recovery cycle . No confirmation at Full Recession and one only confirmation at the early recession. Mr. Market does not want the recession yet…
AMEX:XLBEducation
by giancarlopagliaroli
7
semiconductors climbing out of the holeright now major indices and the nasdaq especially is banking on semis carrying a significant bounce out of the giant hole they have dug for themselves and us all. it follows that if we can hold 15.80s breaking 16.80s and continue with TRAMA staying over VWMA with both averages rising together that we should hae the go ahead to close the gap around 18.60s (strange that the decimal and integer are inverted 🤔 for either target). should ve a mega green day if we just manage to keep oscillators headed toward overbought with the price making higher lows.
AMEX:SOXLLong
by cerealpatterns
4
ES: S&P Sector Performance YTDYou can clearly see that Energy has been the leader, and is in fact the only reason why ES isn't below 3600 right now. Consumer discretionary has taken quite a beating all year, likely due to higher input costs. Worth noting is that consumer staples appears to now be joining consumer discretionary in this downtrend. Utilities are behaving as the sector should be expected to behave during a bear market. Rallies in ES all year have been hollow, with falling volume and open interest on the way up, and increasing volume and open interest on the way down. I expect these trends to continue into the summer.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by iamroot
🔬 STOCK MARKET UNDER MICROSCOPE🏦 Fed did not raise rates today! 🙅‍♀️ It could have happened but it was unlikely . They did walk back their talk a bit, saying a rate hike would "soon be appropriate" which is a ways of saying they will continue to evaluate the situation. All of this should be short term bullish for stocks, ideally into the end of the month. I'll give this a little time to see if there is anything else that makes sense to add here. I want to keep exposure modest . 🧩 SECTOR OVERVIEW As you can see from the MARKET SCREENER : ⬆️ Outperforming sectors: SEMIS 📲 TECH 💻 FINANCIALS 💰 ENERY ⚡️ ⬇️. Underperforming sectors: CONSUMER DISC 💍 COMMUNICATION ☎️ REAL ESTATE 🏡 The MARKET SCREENER tell us who is leading and who is lagging. I personally always have it open while trading to get a feel of where money flows and observe sector rotations. If you like the MARKET SCREENER, it is free to our community - links in bio or signature. Join for instructions.
AMEX:SPY
by TintinTrading
IXIC: Main catalysts and sector studies!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how the IXIC is doing today, look at the main catalysts and study some sectors! The Nasdaq is still in a delicate situation, but it is recovering nicely. We have a gap to fill 14,823, and despite the crash seen yesterday, the situation is under control. However, if we lose the 21 ema along with today’s low, we might seek the support at 14,511 again. This wouldn’t be enough to reverse the bullish bias, but would weaken it for sure. Yesterday we just retested the 21 ema in the daily chart, and we are bouncing back up already. There is the possibility of a bearish structure around, but as long as we don’t see a clear reversal occurring, we can’t assume anything yet. The NDX has been doing many bear traps since April last year. Today is a curious day, as the FAANGs are underperforming the index. If the FAANGs correct more, probably we’ll see the Nasdaq suffering a little bit too, but keep in mind that the bias is still bullish on the Big Ones. The next chart sums all the FAANGs in only one: Maybe the 21 ema will be the next target in the next few days. But what amazes me is the EV sector, which is beating the IXIC. Aside from TSLA, they are all Chinese, so this makes the reading biased, but it is interesting that the sector seem to be ready for a bullish reversal, and we have a Descending Triangle there: The most famous Chinese stocks (aside the EV stocks) are beating the market a lot too, going up more than 7%, after yesterday’s crash: However, what’s interesting is that the gaming sector is also quite strong, going up more than 2% today. I wouldn’t say that the FAANGs are not strong anymore, because they are. It just seems that today’s volatility made other sectors appear more interesting against them. Yesterday the Chinese stocks underperformed the market, so it seems today’s movement is about right. There are many good stocks around, trading at appealing levels, even among the tech stocks. We just need to search for them. If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates, and support this idea if you liked it! Thank you very much!
TVC:IXIC
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
2
Personal Savings Rate - Consumer Spending to DeclineAs the Pandemic progressed, Consumers began to spending on Durable Goods, Home Improvement, Electronics and a host of additional Products to improve their nesting conditions. This dynamic applied to Americans who remained employed through "Stay at Home" Measures. Lower Income Consumers paid down Debt and began Investing via WeBull, CoinBase and Robin Hood. Online gambling began to increase markedly. Rents were abated through moratoriums on Real Estate. Stimulus measures provided Income substitution effects, why work when you are assure $600 per week for one year. Demand was brought forward for a number of Sectors. It is now declining. Consumers purchased new Computers, Phones, Tablets and peripherals. White goods and Construction Materials were extremely strong for 16 months. Demand has been sated, the Economy has been contracting for a number of months. On sector Watch: XLE XLU XLK XLB XLP XLY XLI XLC XLV XLF XLRE Breadth should be closely monitored in each of these Sectors as it is in decline once again.
FRED:PSAVERTShort
by HK_L61
2
Market Relative StrengthHey guys, -- thought I would share some of the stuff I look at on a weekly basis to understand where the market is at. The Main Chart is Sectors Super Strength This Chart shows normalized relative percentage sector strength since 24 June The pink line Shows the S&P500 We can see that Tech and Gold has been doing well since 25 Jun VS other sectors while materials and industrials are lagging Sectors above 20 Moving Average Chart Here we can see which sectors are above their moving averages -- red lines means below the moving average, the green line above moving average The CAPS Chart Shows the different market caps If all CAPS are red, then I won't trade long, and moe up stops. If all CAPS are green, then I'll go heavy on long trades. We can see that the large caps are pulling the market forward, but small and mid-caps have been pulling it down. Typically Large caps are slow to respond, and small progressive corrections and led by small caps, then mid-caps, and finally large caps Small Pullbacks like this are normal, and a sign of a healthy functioning market with steady market participation Market Expectancy Chart TQQQ Tech ticker: from the image below we can see that tech is overextended quite a bit, so it's due for a small correction back to its normally expected trading bands -- white striped bands With tech being such a big part of the market these days, my focus is not to take new longs, but to take profits, move stops up and look at short trades trading sytems The Table Sector Performance chart Shows how each sector has performed over the last 10 days I use this to check which sectors are weak, versus which sectors are strong This shows me which sectors I should avoid, and which sectors I should focus on If too many sectors are red, then it means that I need to pay attention for a possible market correction When LOOKING at the market fundamentals / market structure / market internals I look at: Where is the market now? Is the market over-etended? Which sectors are weak VS strong? Where the NASDAQ and SPY trading within their expected bands? -- I don't use log charts, with expectancy bands, because they don't work on log charts. Is there anything else that you guys find useful gauging the overall market?
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HermanBrummer
A seasonal sector-switching strategy has beaten the S&P YTDThe Study I ran an analysis on monthly stock-market returns over the last 20 years or so, to determine which sector delivered the best median dividend-adjusted returns in each month. December 2020 was the last month included in the study. The sector funds included in the analysis were all equal-weighted, although they don't all use identical methodologies or have identical expense ratios, so keep that in mind. Also, for some funds, there was more data than for others. Some have been around since 2005, some 2007, some 2012. Here are the funds I included: EWRE, RCD, RGI, RTM, RYE, RYF, RHS, RYH, RYU, XAR, XBI, XHB, XME, XTL, XTN, XSW, XSD. The limitations of the data mean that the results are probably pretty noisy. I've got no real way to determine the statistical significance of these results, because there's just not enough data. A lot of this will be "noise," but probably there's some "signal" here too. Basically I compared these sector funds' median return in each month and determined which fund gave the best median return. (The median should be a more robust statistical summary than the mean, because the mean will be affected by outliers like meltups and crashes.) The Results Here are the best-performing sectors by month: January: Biotech February: Aerospace March: Real Estate April: Energy May: Semiconductors June: Real Estate July: Semiconductors August: Semiconductors September: Materials October: Transportation November: Transportation December: Metals The Backtest Since I didn't use data from 2021 to generate these results, we can backtest a sector-switching strategy on 2021. What if, in each month, we switched to the sector with the best median return for that month? The answer is that the equal-weighted index returned about 18% YTD, whereas the sector-switching strategy returned about 21%. So there's a slight edge here, but not a large one. If you're trading in a tax-deferred IRA, you'd have come out ahead by using the sector-switching strategy. But if your account isn't tax-deferred, then this strategy will have cost you more in capital gains taxes than you're making in excess returns vs. simply holding the index. The Code I've put the R code for this analysis on Github, should anyone wish to check my work: github.com
AMEX:RSPLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
XLE SP500 Energy Sector SPDRWhen doing my sector research, I noticed that the stochastic levels were decreasing. I like levels under 50% and this is currently at 24% today. The put to call ratio is under 1 sitting at 0.92 post-market which indicates that there are a tad bit more puts that were closed today versus yesterday which indicates that more calls are slowly entering the market. The energy market is due for a spike in my opinion as the economy is slowly recovering and demand is slowly increasing with talks of the infrastructure bill along increased oil demand as of late. The only thing worries me is the lack of unemployment growth and job acceptance compared to job growth which has been increasing. As far as the chart itself, on the Daily timeframe I noticed that the RSI is in the "oversold" territory and the MACD just crossed over to the green territory which indicates a possible reversal soon to come. I've also noticed that "Support #1" has potentially been broken. I want to make sure my 4HR and 1HR time frames match to the daily regarding the RSI and MACD which it is pretty close in my opinion. Since "Support #1" has been broken, I went to the 4HR and 1HR to confirm in which I saw the Support #1 being broke through with strong bearish candles. This indicates that price could potentially begin testing "Support #2". I used the fibonnaci indicator to trace a potential retracement from and to the resistance and the support levels to create the discount price area and the target price area. Before entering I want to see bullish candles in the discount zone on the 1HR timeframe! I hope this give you some form of sentiment. Thanks for the support!
AMEX:XLE
by Redimere_91