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A very term look at the base metal king, copper.Today's copper market sees us with a secular bull run intact despite the volatility. Fundamentals look good supported by green tech demand and critical applications in technology. We see a support line in effect which has had some nice tests. These will likely hold with 2 bucks and some change as current support. It looks as if copper might give us a good buying opportunity for the investor allowing us a good return on capital, as it has this century so far.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by Xamune
GOLD: A Macro Elliot Wave AnalysisDisclaimer(s): The green (0) viewable in the bottom left of the chart would have been in 2005 but because of the scope of this graph it coincides with 2010 By the same token the green (3) should be several years forward but coincides with 2019, again b/c of the scope of the graph This is my first attempt at applying Elliot Wave analysis to an asset class (it applies to all) but draws on research and expert opinions Per Elliot Wave theory I am attempting to identify 2 things, The first is what appears to be a wave 2 A-B-C (in blue) corrective pattern (the bulk of the graph ) of what will be a years long SuperCycle (second only to a Grand SuperCycle in time frame). The second visual identification is the initial stages of what I project to be a bullish path forward; wave 3. Per rules of EW operative counts wave 2 must be at least 50% of wave 1. From trough to peak (2005Q2 - 2011Q3) GLD went from $42 to 183, an increase of 141, 1/2 of which is 70.5. Correspondingly from peak to trough (2011Q3 - 2015Q4) gold decreased from $183 to 100; as 83>70.5 the minimum 50% magnitude retracement of wave 1 was met in what convincingly appears to have been wave 2, we may now be embarking on wave 3 which would be the beginning of a massive secular bull run. Note that Elliot Wave analysis is fractal on nature and applies to roughly 9 different time frames that ranges from minutes to Millenial. I am looking at a long time frame, hence a SuperCycle with 5 waves, 1, 3, and 5 up and 2 & 4 down. The second part of the graph is the potential path gold may take on its way to completion of wave 3; several years away in an A-B-C-D-E formation (in orange) which represents an intrawave uptrend, B, C, D & E are beyond the scope of this graph. A, C, and E are waves up; B & D down, all representing the course of wave 3 in the grand scheme. Per the Fibonacci levels ascertained from the A-B-C corrective pattern of wave 2 we see that GLD (which I will not invest in but use a method to track golds price action) has been oscillating around the 0.236 level which switches from support to resistance. So long as we do not see a sustained break below 117 (the 0.236 equates to roughly 120) there is a set up in play for a powerful rally to the orange A representing the first step of the A-B-C-D-E bullish formation alluded to in the preceding paragraph. The price target in this case would be roughly 150 which equates to the 0.618 Fibonacci line. Remember that impulsive wave 3s are very powerful and steep to the upside (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest), this wave usually coincides with a mass recognition that a new trend in any given asset class is underway. Note that per RSI and the Elliot Wave Oscillator there seems to be a years long consolidation underway. screaming entry point would be if one, or both indicators break resistance lines to the upside. The colored shaded projection visible towards the right of the graph could only be the beginning of a massive rally should current levels (grey shaded rectangle connected to the colored projection) roughly hold and we see a break to the upside. This could happen this year, only time will tell...
AMEX:GLDLong
by TNasr
Gold secular bull trend also still intact.Gold, like silver and all commodities in general, are in a secular bull market. They will remain so until there is enough action from the Federal Reserve central bank to arrest money creation and thus cause debt deflation. Since this has only happened twice in the Fed's history (early 1930's and 1980's) and with tremendous economic pain, it is extremely doubtful this will happen again. Of course, I could be wrong. The interest rate run up and subsequent great recession during the last decade was NOT enough to make it a third time. That was rather a dis inflationary (a reduction in the inflation rate) crash, which was nowhere near what was required to end the secular commodities bull market. In any secular (very long term) market you will have cyclical bulls and bears contained within the secular trend. The cyclical top was attained in the third quarter of 2011 where a cyclical bear ensued. This likely ended with the bottom put in December 2015. The second trend line drawn above the first is likely to hold, as this not too far below where the break even price is to mine it. You will note that silver has a similar all in cash cost of mining scenario as outlined in my analysis of that metal. There exists the possibility another financial crisis could send the price of gold temporarily below the top trend line. If that is to be the case, there may be a hard bounce off the original secular trend line as the Fed reinflates.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Xamune
Gold in relation to S&P 500 and the other indexes. Secular BullMy research has led me to many places. One of them, has led me to follow the path that gold follows. In this quest for knowledge, I have met many individuals if which one of them has been of great help. Quant (TR), I thank you for everything, without your guidance it would have taken longer. Never said too much, but just enough to peak my curiosity. Now I understand the famous quote by BaronNathan Rothchild. That said, I present to you a series of charts that will illustrate my findings. I have strong evidence to support these claims, but I will only use charts. The rest I will leave to you to find. We tend to think we are in bull markets because the indexes rise. We also think we are in a bear market because the same indexes decline. It is the business cycle the one we refer to. There are many other cycles too. However, we are not truly in a bull or bear most of the time. We have been moving sideways since 2000, at the peak of the previous secular bull market which started in 1983 during the Reagan years. Yes, we went up and down, even had a financial crisis, but we never went above previous peaks, specifically, the SPX year 2000 peak. It was only until 2013 that we punctured our previous year 2000 SPX high that we started a new secular Bull Market. It is 2016 and we approach what appears to be a collapse of epic proportions in the indexes and new highs in gold never before achieved fuelled by fear . Gold 3000 some claim... I do believe that fear and uncertainty that drive gold's price up. Gold want to be cheap, after all, you cannot buy anything at the store with it and only serves as risk aversion instrument or an investment in these times of low yields (NIRP, ZIRP). That said, this chart is simple. I marked with the Fibonacci Time zones two points the rest mark themselves. It is curious how we humans behave, indeed. 0 line represents a time shortly after the Nixon shock and when gold reach the first peak at almost 708 USD. I proceeded to mark line 1 precisely when gold started to change trend just before the start of a the new Secular Index Bull Market. Notice how every line marks an important phase in the indexes and how line 8 marks the start of gold's new bull but short lived bull market just as the indexes started a new secular bear market. Line 13 I do not put much attention, but you can see more or less where it is...now compare it to SPX. I am convinced that this coming month will be the end of the rise in gold. It will reach a target of $1526 as per my estimations. "The price pattern reminds you that every movement of importance is but a repetition of similar price movements, that just as soon as you can familiarize yourself with the actions of the past, you will be able to anticipate and act correctly and profitably upon forthcoming events" - Jesse Lauriston Livermore. "I never buy at the bottom, and I always sell too soon" - Baron Nathan Rothchild "If a I am right, then I will profit. If I am wrong, then I will profit too because I have this crazy idea that keeping an open mind is very important, to me, and my wallet" - Hector Garcia
FX:XAUUSD
by ShPro
A correction is due whether it's a Secular Bear or notThe chart shows the Dow Index and its 50-day Moving Average since 1915. I have encased the Secular Bears that occurred in the period in amber boxes and used purple boxes to highlight corrections that have happened when the share price moved sharply above the Moving Average. Perhaps the recent Secular Bear ended in 2008 and we are now in a Secular Bull Market. Even so, history shows that, when the share price moves sharply out of line with the 50-day Moving Average, a significant correction is due. This correction will, no doubt, happen before the end of 2014. Analysts disagree as to whether we are still in the Secular Bear (i.e., a long-term bear market) that commenced in 1999/ 2000, or whether we have emerged from the Bear Market into a Secular Bull. My argument is that, whichever view applies, since share prices have risen sharply above the 50-day Moving Average, a severe correction is due before the end of 2014. The Stock Traders' Almanac predicts that the Dow Jones will fall to $12,000 (from its present c. $16,500) this year. It will then recover to $18,000 by the end of 2015, but fall back to $10,000 by the end of 2018, before the next Secular Bull will start, which will see the markets rising continuously for 15 years.
DJ:DJI
by KrunchieKilleen