Bitcoin - Marginal ThemeIf you look at Google Trends , you can see that bitcoin is popular in countries such as Bolivia and Nigeria. Also, you can see a decline in interest, which coincides with the divergence of price and volume.
Segwit
Bitcoin - Sigwit FutureWith the growing excitement for the coming Segwit I think that we are going to see a lot of volatility until it locks in. After the lock in I believe there will be strong FOMO from the non Bitcoin community. What are your opinions?
Short in downward trade channel for BTCUSDTExpecting movement in downward trade channel to the uptrend line.
Watch for uptrend and downtrend breakouts, it's possible for price reversals.
Be careful with your trades, good luck!
All eyes on Bitcoin this week.Tomorrow's the big day.
If you want to know what fear and confusion looks like in the market here's a perfect example. Nobody is sure what's going to happen tomorrow. At the same time, this chart doesn't look any different from any other chart, because they all represent the same human variables.
I'll be watching the daily candle today for insight into tomorrow. I am expecting the fork and low liquidity to cause the price of bitcoin to tumble to around 2300 tomorrow before continuing its bullish run. However, the low liquidity could work both ways and drive the price up to unsustainable levels for the time being. So be careful and don't get caught chasing a candle tomorrow. Let the price come to you.
bullish BTC scenarioThis is really bullish scenario and while 5k BTC in august may sound crazy for some of you, I just used trendlines here and compared the situation with segwit activation on litecoin. You can choose lower targets, but the idea and the dates are the same. People are telling me this information is already priced in, but exact same situation on LTC shows otherwise.
BCC changed nothing and BTC is still king of the hill. With activation of segwit we enable use of Lightning Network on BTC (lightning.network). This means instant transactions at nearly zero costs in the near future. Coffee problem solved. This is the biggest and best news for months and with 80% of miners rejecting all other blocks (BIP91: medium.com) this is the most likely scenario to happen right now.
Coins like LTC will probably suffer here, since big advantages disappear for now. With segwit activating, miners could stop using Segwit2x and second chain split could be avoided. Another chain split will probably cause a new wave of FUD within the next few months. IMO the next bullrun could be a good moment to move some coins into FIAT and watch from the sidelines for some time.
The Short to the SplitNormally, I would long this, but there's so much bouncing right now, especially on bitfinex since they are supporting bitcoin cash(BCH). If you compare prices at stamp or anywhere else, we're taking a bit longer to notice actual movement due to people hedging on shorts for there BCH come July 1.
Best case, we bounce around this area and maybe uptick to 2700.
More than likely case: we slowly short to 2400 while these new bitfinex players and whales keep things low.
That being said, what's everyone's plans when the BCH starts to role in?
BTC Update 30/07 : Segwit lock-in on Aug 8th ?On the run up to $2900 a couple weeks ago, a lot of volume went into the market to develop firm support. A breakdown of this support level could prove to be quite destructive to the BTC-USD market in the short term.
Market decides bitcoin is not yet worth $3000.Very simple, noone seems to want to pay for above 2.9k Bitcoin, 3k keeps getting rejected.
This is a low risk high reward trade, keep stop around ATH if it breaks with volume.
I will be keeping an eye on fundamentals since this can change the whole picture, but I believe we'll see prices of at least $2000 before we can attempt to crush 3k.
Potential Cup & Handle forming XCPHandle may be currently forming. However, it is rather deep down for it to be a textbook handle. Therefore, I think a smaller cup may be forming, approaching the test of the resistance trendline between 720-800k, followed by the forming of the handle before *finally* seeing a breakout.
BTC USDT (Poloniex)Examining the BTC Daily chart provides a good point from which to establish our next short-term long position, and gives us good perspective on the overall BTC trend. While we are currently bearish we have enjoyed fantastic price action maintaining a consistent 550.00 dollar range, bouncing well at key fib levels allowing for fantastic short-term long gains. These fibonacci points provide us with our next estimated buy zone (.618). While we have passed through our daily Bollinger bands we must also keep in mind that only the most aggressive trend has corrected thus far, so we must continue to keep stop losses set as tightly as you are comfortable with, as the natural correction could take us to the long term uptrend lines marked, and trader uncertainty born of the fast approaching changes (SEGWIT, BIP148 etc etc) could also lead to rapid decline in value.
If we approach the top of the established channel, those who trade on leverage may take the opportunity to examine the currency pairs which most closely mimicked BTC price action in order to determine short entry points. If that situation should come about I will be watching STR(btc) and ETH(btc) very closely.
Good luck to all!
A take on BTC short-term price actionThe chart speaks for itself. Make sure to have your funds in a safe place BEFORE 1st of August, under no circumstances leave them on exchange (unless you dont mind losing them). Unfortunately, I am not able to predict what will happen after the critical first day of August as the situation is highly complex. One thing is for sure, fear and uncertainty will be spooking around in most of us. That would usually result in a sharp sell off, but since transactions are risky then, I really have no idea how this situation will evolve in term of price movements. I would really appreciate any feedback here, let me know what you think. Stay safe guys!
Bitcoin Bullish Reversal with IH&S as Segwit Activations LoomUnfortunately, it seems that the Megabull ended prematurely thanks to a bunch of greedy companies and miners attempting to monopolize Bitcoin and sabotage Segwit:
Roger Ver with Bitmain attempt to launch Bitcoin Unlimited through a Hard Fork but fail to get community support due to poor coding of BU, ASICBoost, Antbleed etc.
We finished from BU thought we were done, then Barry Silbert whose building his empire on cryptocurrencies through legal and shady means (owns Digital Currency Group, Genesis Global Trading, a bitcoin OTC trading firm, and Grayscale Investments, took advantage of the Ethereum fork to make ETC from the chain split) and big crypto-dependent firms took it upon themselves to come up with Segwit2x variation through NYA Meeting without inviting Bitcoin Core devs (main Dev of Bitcoin since inception). These big players decided they would develop instead their own quick untested Segwit version through RSK developers (Bitmain invested in them and who knows who) and also Hard Fork a 2MB form as well few months later. The rest of the community was not consulted.
BitcoinABC: Although Bitmain agreed to Segwit2x, somehow Jihan wants as well his own Bitcoin version through a Hard Fork which he would pre-mine for himself before releasing and it would increase the block size to a whopping 8MB.
As you see we have multiple big corporations attempting a hostile takeover of open source cryptos. The worst part is that their Segwit code is poorly coded/buggy and it also contains hard-coded seeds that send network data to some of the corporations (data mining). All these corporations should be held liable in front of a court of law for attempting to destroy or manipulating the $80 Billion cryptocurrency ecosystem in their favor.
Anyways, enough venting from my end and lets just to this simple analysis of the current bear trend in play:
Based on this 235D cycle and the blue bear market fractal from 2013 (post-megabull bearish trend), Bitcoin could attempt to put a bottom earlier than expected at $1950-1850 and start a new megabull cycle immediately if Segwit Bitcoin Core (BIP 148) activation succeeds without a chain split through August 2017. The bullish reversal would complete through the plotted inverted head and shoulder (IH&S) on the chart. As depicted, we would start the new megabull around September 9 and reach the final All Time High at $13,370 - $10,000 at the 235D Cycle top on October 9. This is the best scenario and to be honest the chances of it occurring aren't pretty high due to the uncertainty lying ahead with potential chain splits and hard forks from different groups. Worse case scenario not depicted on this chart would be 1 year of bear market 2014 style
Currently, were looking at a bottom as:
1. Support at $1950-1850 which is 50% Fibonacci retracement and Bitcoin is potentially testing this area as a final bottom.
2. The 1D RSI is oversold currently at 28 and we had some capitulation wick down to $1830 on Stamp and finex.
3. Notice we hit the 3D Bollinger bottom band as well at $2000-1975 roughly. Previous bear trends weren’t shy of dropping $100-200 under the bottom 3D Bollinger band with volatility before violently bouncing up with a short squeeze.
Stoplosses:
1. If we do close a daily under $1800 then the entire trade setup would be VOID.
2. Also consider this entire chart VOID if the Bitcoin chain splits in two or more chains through August 2017. If we do split chains, then expect Bitcoin to crash down to $1240-1140 support eventually.
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ETH Fighting the ChannelETH is still struggling to break the downward channel.
We saw a good increase in volume today leaving many of us optimistic about the market.
As long as ETH fails to break the channel, I have indicated several fib levels that will likely indicate support.
Use these levels for your shorts/longs.
Remember, even though this is a bearish market, we can still come out on top.
Thanks and good luck to all!
note: please notice how the interception of the bottom fib level and the channel perfectly line up with Aug 1st. Coincidence?
Just Having a FUD Laugh with $LTCJust having some fun in response to the "LiteCoin in the Final wave" post. I think it is always a good idea to step back and look at the big picture.
Keep in mind that Litecoin has had this boom in large part because it's tied very strongly to Bitcoin charts, and bitcoin has also rocketed from 1200->2600 in the same timeframe. If Litecoin goes down, Bitcoin and all other crypto will go down too. So if this is the future, short everything ;)
That said, I also have a strong feeling that the US economy is going to hit a low point soon, which would be great for Crypto. On big timelines like this, there are so many rumor, news, technology changes, etc, it's hard to only look at the TA with a straight face.
Also, Litecoin has picked up serious momentum with Charlie Lee leaving Coinbase to focus on the Litecoin foundation, Litecoin being listed on new exchanges and supported by new platforms all the time. Interest is growing and so is regular new money coming into it. This seems an unlikely scenario to me--but what do I know, I've only been doing TA for 4 months.
If in doubt, #HODL and come back next year--you'll be way happier not to stress about the "if" and "when" ;)
Live strong and HODL long.
tipping jars:
ETH: 0xAA33bAe03131f3aa36e1de3e4bD53583c41F8d64
LTC: LeMkJv1Xoxnt2YvRgKkNZZJRgZYgGzcSyv
BTC: 1CWDM7dYLoBwJyf2kbGANAmuySwFWC2NZu
$LTC theme music:
www.youtube.com
$CRYPTO theme music: www.youtube.com
Again, I'm not a financial/investment advisor, just having some fun and accumulating some crypto--so make decisions at your own risk :)
LTCUSDT: Litecoin is accumulated, probably sideways for nowLitecoin has been acting stronger than $BTC, I assume it might grind sideways like practically all coins, until all hell breaks loose by August 1st. Most people are worried, or bearish overall, and in the recent bottoms, we saw traders unload long positions in loss, to quickly realize they had fallen for a bear trap. Until fundamental risks aren't out of the way, it is highly unlikely to see a strong trend in the cryptocurrency space, so, safest bet is to accumulate longs with the smart money in your preferred basket of solid fundamental picks in this market. I'll share my entries with my clients as usual, and we will continue to build our portfolio in preparation for the eventual resumption of the weekly rally in crypto, which might culminate in a blow off top, specially if it hits my weekly targets before the long term timeframe time expires for $BTC and $ETH.
The closer we get to 29.54, the safer the long entry in this range...Try to average in gradually, specially when traders become vocally negative, and specially if oversold, on dips.
Coins like $LTC and $XRP, have been accumulated for long periods of time, and might be extremely resilient, despite being affected by short term volatility and bear traps/shakeouts during periods of negativity.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Disclaimer: I'm long $LTC, $BTC, $XRP, among other currencies and tokens.
Ethereum Road - Hope before Augustfractal progression + Fibonacci wedge + elliot impulse wave + Cypher Pattern
Bitcoin consolidation zone - Road to 15 novemberfractal progression + fibonnaci wedge + elliot impulse wave
