EUR/SEK 1H Chart: Falling wedge in sightThe Euro has been depreciating against the Swedish Krona since the end of August. This movement has been bounded in a falling wedge.
The exchange rate reversed south from the upper wedge boundary at 10.41 at the end of October. Given that the currency pair is pressured by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs, it is expected that the pair aims for the lower boundary of given pattern located circa 10.26.
However, this move might not be immediate and the pair could re-test the upper pattern line located near 10.36.
SEK
USD/SEK 1H Chart: Bullish momentum likelyUpside risks prevailed in the market, thus sending the US Dollar 4.25% higher against the Swedish Krona. Half of these gains have erased since beginning of October, as the pair returned near 8.9000.
As apparent on the chart, the currency pair is trading in a short-term ascending channel. Given that the rate is supported by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs, it is likely that goes upside. Important resistance level to look out for is a combination of the Fibonacci 0.00% and the weekly R3 at 9.2487.
It is the unlikely case that some bearish pressure still prevails in the market, the US Dollar should not exceed the Fibonacci 23.60% retracement at 8.9134.
EUR/SEK 1H Chart: Bearish momentumThe Euro has been appreciating against the Swedish Krona after the currency pair reversed from the Fibonacci 38.20% retracement at 10.32. This movement has been bounded in a short-term ascending channel.
Currently, the pair is trading the lower channel line at 10.36. Also, the pair is pressured by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs located in the 10.39/10.45 range. Given these facts, it is expected that a breakout from the channel might occur in the nearest future. Technical indicators for the 4H and 1D time-frames support bearish scenario.
Potential downside target could be the weekly S1 at the 10.29 mark.
GBPSEK: Target hit. Short on High/ Resistance.TP = 11.7644 hit as the 11.4900 1W Support held, pushing the price to a new High. GBPSEK has now priced an even Higher High on this curve pattern, near the 12.1519 Resistance. 1W STOCH = 44.256 and the marginal Highs/Lows = 0.1156 suggest that a gap lower exists. Trade accordingly towards the two support levels.
NZDSEK: Long the Low on the 1W Channel Down.NZDSEK made a Lower Low on the 1W Channel Down (RSI = 39.460, MACD = -0.025, Highs/Lows = -0.0723) slightly lower than its bands suggested but it still rebounded. On a 1D basis it will face significant Resistance at 5.9440 but if broken, should extend for the full 1W Lower High near 6.050.
Target hit. Rectangle intact. Short.TP = 12.700 hit as the price completed the bullish 1D leg within the 1W Rectangle (RSI = 49.145, Highs/Lows = 0, Ultimate Oscillator = 50.485). After hitting the 12.845 Resistance, the pair is expected to move towards the 12.000 support. We are short again with TP = 12.200.
Both targets hit. Support test ahead. Short.Both long and short targets hit on NOKSEK as the price made a two-way swing within the Rectangle's 1.09456 Resistance and 1.07445 Support. The 1W Rectangle remains valid (RSI = 56.591, STOCH = 52.647, ADX = 18.466) and we will continue applying a scalping approach, currently on a short aiming at the 1.07445 Support (TP).
USD/SEK 1H Chart: Short-term increase expectedThe US Dollar has been depreciating against the Swedish Krona in a short-term descending channel since the middle of August. This gradual decrease in price began when the rate reversed from the upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel at 9.2290.
The pair reversed from the lower boundary of the junior channel during Thursday's morning hours. The common scenario would be a surge towards the upper channel line located circa 9.0800. However, technical indicators suggest that this advance might not be immediate, as the pair is being pressured by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs.
Important level to look out for is the monthly PP at 9.0637.
Adding more SEK to our portfolio=> After Sunday's election resulting in political deadlock we are set for another circus of government building.
=> Here we are expecting politics to open up an extended period of narrative for SEK where the path to normalisation (hikes expected to begin in December) will take centre stage.
=> With the focus shifting towards Riksbank and the economic expectations we are targeting a test of the 10.25xx
=> As most of you already know we are now overweight SEK in our portfolio with USDSEK and NOKSEK positions already running in profit since last week.
=> Good luck all here
Target hit. 1W Rectangle extended lower but intact. Long.TP = 12.283 hit on SEKJPY as the 1W Rectangle declined and even marginally crossed the 12.050 Support to form a new base at 11.973. This doesn't alter our support-long/ resistance-short strategy, as the pair is showing significant bullish reversal bias on 1D (overbought STOCHRSI, Williams, CCI, ADX = 22.908, RXO = 2.123). Going long, TP = 12.700.
1W Channel Up. Long.USDSEK is trading within a long term 1W Channel Up (RSI = 67.172, MACD = 0.190, Highs/Lows = 0.1401, B/BP = 0.3894), which has just tested the first Support at 9.03686. If it doesn't continue higher from here then the Higher Low will be made at the lower Support on 8.93186. Both are technical long entries with TP = 9.35123.
Rectangle Pattern on 1W. Scalp.NOKSEK is trading within a long term Rectangle on 1W (Williams = -53.421, CCI = 12.5397, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) with 1D indicating that at the moment the price is on the pivot (RSI = 51.985, ADX = 17.916) with both directions equally probable. We will be scalping within the Resistance (1.09456) and Support (1.07445) lines indicated in blue.
USD/SEK 1H Chart: Rate tests 55-day SMAUpside risks prevailed in the market at the beginning of July, thus sending the US Dollar 3.10% higher against the Swedish Krona. Half of these gains were erased during the previous trading week, as the pair had returned near the 8.80 mark at the time of this analysis.
The Greenback has already fallen below the 100– and 200-period (4H) SMAs. If the 55-day one likewise surrenders at 8.7950, it might be considered that a medium-term decline is in sight.
The following trading days are likely to come with a slight correction north until the monthly PP and the 55-period SMA at 8.85, as bears could lack the necessary momentum to dash through the 55-day SMA at first. This up-move might also lead the rate until a trend-line located near 8.92 is reached.
EUR/SEK 1H Chart: Euro supported by SMAsEUR/SEK has been appreciating since mid-June when the rate reversed from the senior channel. This long-term pattern was formed at the very beginning of 2017. By this Friday, the rate had returned back to the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement line at 10.47 which has worked as strong resistance this month. The upper boundary of the junior channel is likewise located there.
The pair’s current movement leads to suggest that a breakout of this resistance cluster is likely to occur, thus allowing the Euro to target another important resistance level at 10.48. This upward move should be supported by the 55-, 100– and 200-period SMAs both on the 1H and 4H time-frames.
A possible target for the following week is the monthly R1 at 10.60. Moreover, the upward tendency of the price demonstrates that the Euro might actually continue trading in line with the senior channel and thus re-test the 2018 high of 10.70.
last warning, spectacular move to unfold on usdjpy and usdsekthis is almost to complicated to exlpain, i'll give the details later. a non conformal analysis of critical points and their alignment on many pairs is revealing a spectacular coordinated move to happen very soon (today/tomorrow).
at time of writing its trace has already been detected on usdjpy, cadjpy and usdcad.
from this analysis we extract two pairs for which the move might be spectacular because of stiffness property : usdjpy, and usdsek (swedish krona).
the fall on these pairs (and many others) might be almost in straight line !