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Bitcoin, and the entire crypto market. Does this recent decline in the cryptocurrency market mean investors have finally come to their senses that the market is unstable? Have investors finally realized that there was a massive bubble that the cryptocurrency? The Dotcom Bubble, which is very similar in characteristics to the Cryptocurrency Bubble resulted in the closure, bankruptcies, or legal prosecution of hundreds of companies. We see similar characteristics such as an influx of new ICO's, of which 90% of them are useless, and dead after a short time. According to Dead Coin, currently, there are 930 coins that are deceased, abandoned, or deemed a scam. People have come to the realization that like fiat, crypto has been hacked, stolen, and manipulated. The benefits of crypto have drastically fallen from what was once promised. It became slow and expensive, while not being as secure as claimed. Majority of traders were very inexperienced traders who purchased bitcoin on credit, mortgages, and loans. So, it would seem that cryptocurrency has perceived value due to fiat (dollars, euros, misc). Traders invest fiat, gain profits, and sell for fiat. This makes crypto essentially a trading tool but itself is worthless, because there is no perceived value of cryptocurrency. Do each of the 2,000 coins have value? Are they all accepted? Are they accepted everywhere? Are there exchange rates? Can they be exchanged? These are the important questions asked by investors. Bitcoin, among other cryptocurrencies seem less accepted today vs during the boom of 2017. From what we heard, a big player in the decision was that crypto is no longer stable and have lost confidence. Below, we explain the 3 points on our charts: Point 1 - We were reading that at this point, BTC was stabilizing and was poised to breakout. BTC traded pretty much flat for most of October, which many traders thought brought the end of the bear market for Bitcoin. Point 2 - At this point, Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market proved it was not a safe-haven against stock market volatility. Bitcoin has dropped in parallel with the stock market (not in percentage or points) but in a general sell off. There were bits of news here and there that may have influenced prices across the crypto market, but confidence has faltered and fear has set in. Point 3 - We believe this is the most important point. This point is a future prediction, which we believe in that will take place WITHIN 2019. We believe investors and traders of the cryptocurrency have finally come to terms with the massive bubble that it became. According to CoinMarketCap, there are over 2,050 crypto currencies! Yet, at the same time the entire market cap has been shrinking. This is the biggest sign of a bubble. We believe the bubble popped and is continuing to deflate. We believe this drop in Bitcoin and the cryptocurrencies will continue to deflate, until a massive restructuring takes place, either by government involvement or not. In this restructuring, we will see well over 1,000 cryptocurrencies simply vanish. So, what is the solution? In conjunction with the stock market, we believe that the crypto market will also continue downward. The stock market has entered bear market and there is talk that GDP will come to a halt in 2019, below 2% with a big chance of recession. Many cryptocurrency experts state that the market is still in capitulation and predict bitcoin to reach back into the hundreds of dollars. Get out while you still can. You will see the vanishing of majority of the cryptocurrencies during this downtrend. Protect yourself with assets of actual value . Bitcoin is not digital gold, its digital fools gold. You decide, $4,000 for some coding or $4,000 for precious metals that survived every great financial decline? Will there be those who shout "Your crazy, your wrong" absolutely, but we were telling investors/traders to get out in Jan of 2018 where others stated "it was a correction". A correction is defined as a 10% decline, its now been over 80%. We understand, no one wants sobering news that the asset that helped many people make some extra money, is coming down and has further pain ahead. *Disclaimer As cryptocurrency is an entirely new type of investment class, predicting crypto has proved to be extremely difficult, even to self proclaimed experts. Our prediction is based on historical financial assets, bubbles, and trends. Bitcoin has a possibility of reversing upward, but the odds of this are extremely remote. We standby our claim that the bubble and capitulation has not ended . Best of luck!
FOREXCOM:BTCUSDShort
by WorldEconomics
1
WOW! What a rate hike!ERdogan is freaking out!#BE PATIENT!Hey tradomaniacs, what a HUUUUGE rate hike in turkey today. WOW! We see that this rate hike obviously increased the value of TRY causing a sell-off today. But what does that mean? We were breaking out of a triangle which is actually a trend-continuation-pattern. Yeah... News like that can destroy every pattern and its rules. BUT what will happen? Well, experts expect that this rate hike could advoid a finacial EU-crisis..bla bla we all know it can`t . And who knows this? Big institutions! BE PATIENT right now. We are totally oversold and that could cause a retracement. As long as we stay inside of this support-range, better don`t do anything. Wait for impulses. I expect a small correction ending up in a consolidation until the market "digested" these news and analysis upcoming expectations. I expect this: We will see a correction coming to HIGH Supply-Zones (Sl`s). This is the perfect area for big banks to buy their huge position-sizes. I don`t see turkey is doing better. We will see. :-) Don`t do anything in this range. May trade a break-out ot use a range-strategy but take your profit quickly. We need to wait. :-) Peace and good trades Irasor Trading2ez Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me. Any questions? Need signals or education especially for beginners? PM me. :-)
by Trading2ez
BITCOIN: one last sell-off back to 6000$?All traders are drawing the descending or on some even ascending triangles on BTC in the yearly or 6 months chart. All traders are hoping it won't break the bottom line support. Well since when did BTC behave like we expected it to. (Well yes I was on some charts not bad) but the point here is, we have bigger players in the game that look at the exact same charts as we do. And the goal for them is to gain as much control over the market as possible, thus buying as much as they can for the lowest possible price. People expect it to bounce off the support line at approx 7000$. I say, we will leave the current regression trend channel and go below that fat green line.. and then people start to panic and sell what they can, stop loss triggers gonna be hit, a mass-sell off was just initiated. BUT! I don't think they will let it go below the worldwide Mining support line at 6k. My guess is 6500$ - 6100$ as worst case. Then we spike up fast like in February the 6th. Remember? Big spike with biggest volume ever. Same scenario will be this time. I say last sell-off, not for fun. We have major banks preparing trading desks. Major VC preparing Funds and investment plans in Crypto. We have positive statements from SEC, IWF and other big names. They (whales, cartel) can't hold it down much longer. THIS LAST SELL-OFF WILL INITIATE THE NEXT BIG BULL RUN! (as always, I observe OB, RSI, 200 MA, news Groups, Well known traders, P&D Groups.. and this is my conclusion) Tether up now, sell your positions, buy more when we go below 7k OR hodl through it like a crypto veteran and just hope for a sick come back!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by MarkiMark_1559
Bonds are going to get slappedIt's pretty late, I'm just catching up on some work I didn't do. TLT correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the long-term sector of the U.S. Treasury market as defined by the Barclays Capital 20+ Year Treasury Index. Fridays had a mid-day 'rip your face off' bounce from the lows in the overall market. I wasn't able to catch it by the time I got near my platform. Next session it will go down is my stance. I'am expecting $177.10s to at least be pierced. Could go much lower during the initial balance.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by Pippylongstockings
GBPJPY: BOJ MISS; BOE HIT? MORE SELLING ON THE HORIZONBOJ Miss: 1. BOJ deliver one of the biggest misses in history (vs expectations/ pressure) - only increasing ETF purchases and dollar funding by apprx $60bn annual in total vs 10-20bps of Depo and LSP cuts + 5-20trn in QE increase + ETF increase. *See attached post for in-depth detail on the BOJ situation and price action history/ Yen strength/ Safe havens* BOJ Miss Compounded with a BOE Hit: 1. BOE are expected to ease by 25bps and possibly add 50bn to their QE programme on Thursday - a BOJ miss combined with a BOJ hit should cause compounded losses for GBPJPY as there are two drivers - Yen should continue this week to get stronger (as BOJ easing expectations surpass and Yen strength increases) whilst GBP gets weaker as the BOE on Thursday likely takes action, reducing the value of Sterling - with both providing the optimal environment for downside. - Historically, when BOJ has delivered new policy/ missed GBPJPY has sold off aggressively between 2-8days and 700-1200pips. Now whilst I dont expect the same level of aggression in the near-term as the relative value is much lower now (135 vs 175) so moves lower should be smaller - I do expect that 400pips lower on the day is not the end of the selling rally for GBPJPY. - Initially at the start of the week i expect GBPJPY to move lower at least another day (satisfying historical moves), perhaps into the 133.5 level which would be 550pips, lower than the smallest sell-off but fair given the relative value changes - not that i would be surprised to see more. - Later into the week is when I expect the bulk of GBPJPY losses to come (e.g. Thurs/ Fri) - the reason for this is as 1) any Yen downside risk from the MOF releasing upside in the details of their stimulus package would have surpassed e.g. increased stimulus from 28trn-40trn (unlikely) or increased govt spending section - both of which devaluing yen moving gbpjpy potentially higher. Though I think the risks are more skewed to MOF delivering a package that strengthens JPY as it undershoots expectations as several MOF members have mentioned the package being over several years - the more years the less punch the package has (given some expected it (5% of gdp) to be spent in 1yr), equally the less direct govt spending portion of the package will also lessen the depreciative impact on yen (rumoured to be 13trn, if less then Yen could get considerably stronger). As mentioned I see the MOF release to be asymmetrically skewed to expectation downside for these reasons. 2) BOE GBP selling pressure would happen when they cut the rate and adjust their QE programme - this is a highly likely scenario as BOE MPC Minutes in July said "Most members expect to loosen policy in August" and recently the BOE's biggest hawk M. Weale switched stance in light of UK Business PMI/ Optimism prints at 10yr lows saying the BOE needs to act fast/ delaying policy further doesn't make sense. Trading strategy: Sell GBPJPY @mrkt 133.5TP1 130.5TP2 128.5TP3 - risk averse traders could wait for the 50-60% MOF/ general Vol bounce into 136-38 level before shorting - I would reshort here anyway.
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
11
SHORT NZDUSD: +2 STANDARD DEVIATION PIVOT POINT ON DAILY & H1Also as additional technicals to support the short NZD$ view: 1. On the daily, weekly and H1 NU currently Trades (and at 0.73) close/ at to its +2 standard deviation lines, these are highly resistive. - Assuming NU trades mean reverting +2SD means there is a 95% chance of a price reversal/ 95% of all prices should be below the +2SD channel lines (e.g. NU highly likely lower from here). -- And as you can see by the Circle Yellow highlights NU has held this +/- 2SD discipline in the past so is highly likely to maintain these levels in the future. 2. Also NU trades significantly above its 60, 120, and 250 Moving Averages on 1h, 4h, 1D, 1wk - this also signals strong overbought prices, where selling has a higher probability of success. *Be sure to check the attached post "SELL NZDUSD @0.73 - TP 700PIPS: BREXIT, RBNZ, FED & USDJPY HEDGE" for NZDUSD short fundamentals*
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
7
SELL NZDUSD: +2 STANDARD DEVIATION PIVOT POINT ON DAILY & H1Also as additional technicals to support the short NZD$ view: 1. On the daily, H1 and weekly NU currently Trades (and at 0.73) close/ at to its +2 standard deviation lines, these are highly resistive. - Assuming NU trades mean reverting +2SD means there is a 95% chance of a price reversal/ 95% of all prices should be below the +2SD channel lines (e.g. NU highly likely lower from here). -- And as you can see by the Yellow circle highlights NU has held this +/- 2SD discipline in the past so is highly likely to maintain these levels in the future. 2. Also NU trades significantly above its 60, 120, and 250 Moving Averages on 1h, 4h, 1D, 1wk - this also signals strong overbought prices, where selling has a higher probability of success. *Be sure to check the attached post "SELL NZDUSD @0.73 - TP 700PIPS: BREXIT, RBNZ, FED & USDJPY HEDGE" for NZDUSD short fundamentals*
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading