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Sell_the_top

Testing Theory One Moves Market…Last night I posited 3 theories: 1) We are still in Intermediate wave A up 2) Intermediate wave C (and Primary wave 2 up) will end this week 3) The market topped last Friday at the close I went into theories 2 and 3 last night but wanted to dedicate more time to theory 1 which will occur here. I first placed the Minor waves (yellow) where they likely ended. I believe everything through Minor wave 4 is accurate. The last step is to project what Minor wave 5 would do based on the data from all prior waves. The models provided me the levels to the far right (coloring coding is spelled out in METHODOLOGY below). I next reviewed possible model agreement for time and price. The lengths appeared to remain less than 16 hours in length. Most models were between 7-12 hours. Prices agreed the most at 4415-4419 with secondary agreement at 4430-4434. Prior to today the high was 4418 and today reached a new high at 4421.76. My target window based on this data remained between 4415-4435. I next applied my beta testing derivative model to the data. It provided the white, yellow, and green boxes. The white box contained all historical end points which means the market top will likely occur in this window. It spanned 3-11 hours between 4393-4454. The median data from the derivative model provided the smallest green box which topped at 4423 (just above the current high). Taking all of these separate models I determined the market top will likely be around 4430 and last 10 hours. I applied this to another program which takes historical data and determines how much each micro wave comprises of the larger macro wave’s final length and movement. I took those median values which the white path pivoted at. Minute wave 1 was expected to last 1 hour and top at 4371.54, wave 2 was 1 hour with a low at 4352.95, wave 3 was 3 hours long with a top at 4410.65, wave 4 lasted a single hour bottoming at 4386.35, and the final 3 hours were for wave 5 to top at 4426.67. I then plotted the green Minute wave numbers based on the actual market swings thus far. It appeared waves 1 and 2 were pretty spot on. Minute wave 3 likely lasted 2 more hours with a higher top at Friday’s high of 4418. Considering all of these models it is quite possible the current market top is in. The next leg of the adventures should be down. I will complete another analysis tomorrow projecting where Intermediate wave B could end. There is still a chance theory 2 from yesterday has occurred or will occur, but the ultimate direction for the next 1-2 weeks should be down. METHODOLOGY As a data scientist, I operate a modified wave theory loosely composed of rules and principles from Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. I develop theories based on suspected wave locations in time and lay out hypotheses to test. Once the movement occurs, I determine which path played out and repeat the process for the next movement. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. Derivative models take the annotated waves from the above methodology and compare specific ratioed-relationships to predict future movement based off of smallest standard deviations in processed models.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Drop soon, but how long?The movement of the past week has raised many questions as to where the market is which we will attempt to answer in this analysis. The long duration Intermediate wave A, followed up with a quick and tiny drop for Intermediate wave B presented characteristics I have compared to similar historical events. The best way to categorize this pattern is by comparing Wave A to Wave B’s duration (or hourly bars), movement, and rise over run or movement divided by duration. I took those values in the current case and compared them to historics to attempt to determine where Intermediate wave C could end. WHAT DOES WAVE C DO WHEN WAVE A IS AT LEAST 3x LONGER THAN WAVE B? Currently, wave A’s duration of 50 trading hours was 3.8462 times longer than wave B’s 13. I studied similar instance where the ratio between A and B’s bars were between 3 and 5 to determine what could happen next. Based on the results I took the prior ratios of A/C and applied it to wave A’s actual 50 bar length to determine what C could do. The results are a mix between 7 and 38 trading hours for wave C. Of note, these are all less than wave A’s length. If the max hold true, wave C and the market top could occur no later than this Friday, November 17 at 1230 eastern time. While 7 trading hours is the lowest value, it could be an outlier so moving to the next lowest at 21 trading hours could place the low on or after the final hour of trading on Tuesday, November 14. Using the same process, the potential tops based on the A/C ratio that are possible are 4489.87 and 4501.87. I do not like any others greater than 4503. I next move over to the same concept but based on the expressed BC ratio for historical waves where A to B’s bars were between 3 and 5. The potential lengths max out at 38 hours again with a tight grouping around 28-30 hours. 29 hours is the first hour of trading on November 16. Of the potential tops, 2 of them are in still in play but likely to be hit within the first 1-2 trading days of this week at 4422.27 and 4441.24. WHAT DOES WAVE C DO WHEN WAVE A’S MOVEMENT IS 6x LARGER THAN WAVE B’S MOVEMENT? Wave A’s movement of a 287.42 point gain divided by wave B’s paltry 47.26 point loss resulted in wave A being 6.0817 times larger than wave B. I studied historical occasions where wave A was 6 times larger than wave B to attempt to determine what could happen next. The potential lengths in this case appear to hold a 1:1 relationship which is why so many results indicate wave C can be 50 bars long. Some of these results are for micro waves wherein wave A may have only been 1 to 2 bars and the following wave C was also 1 to 2 bars. I will not consider the 50 bars as the current market is quite close to the top and 50 bars would take too long to get there. The potential lengths of interest appear to be in the 10 to 13, maybe 17 trading hour zone. Hour 10 will occur tomorrow within the first 3 hours of trading and hour 13 is later in the day. Hour 17 ends before 1230 eastern time on November 14. Nearly all of the project ed tops have occurred with the exception of 4478.88. While considering wave C from the B/C ratio and applying wave B’s length of 13 hours, all results point to 13 hours. This is not helpful, even though 13 is a length already derived and taken into consideration. Once again, most of the moves have already occurred except for four notables at 4433.11, 4446.68, 4462.09, and 4496.39. WHAT DOES WAVE C DO WHEN WAVE A’S RISE OVER RUN IS 1.5x LARGER THAN WAVE B’S RR? Wave A gained 287.42 points over 50 trading hours creating a rise over run of 5.7484. Wave B lost 47.26 points over 13 trading hours for a rise over run of 3.6354. Taking wave A’s value and dividing by wave B indicates Wave A was 1.5812 times larger. This is not an unusual value as B waves are corrective and most of the time shorter and retrace less than wave A moved. I researched similar instances where the A to B ratio was between 1.5 and 1.7 to determine possible wave C reactions. This generated a much larger list of results with 60 matches. Potential wave C lengths are 7, 8, 10, and 13. Potential market tops of 4459.37 and 4478.88 are possible. The values based on historic B/C rise over run relationships max out at a length of 13 bars again. The only potential tops to occur are 4451.35 and 4496.39. Another application of historical studies place lines correlating to percentages on charts for potential movement retracement and movement extensions. There is too much data to list all possible datapoints but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. Potential reversal levels based on historic Intermediate wave Cs in Primary wave 2s have strongest agreement of reversal between 4415-4419, and secondary is 4430-4434. Similarly, based on data for waves ending in 2C2C, strongest agreement is at 4515-4519 with shared secondaries 4415-4419 and 4485-4489. Lastly, the broad data for waves ending in 2C indicates the market top could also be at 4415-4419, with secondaries at 4420-4425. Bottom Line Analysis: There are three major things to consider. The first is that all movement so far is only Intermediate wave A. While this is possible, Intermediate wave B will likely begin soon with a drop. The second theory is Intermediate wave C will end this week. We will likely see upward movement likely no higher than 4500 this week with my primary target below 4471 before Wednesday. I like the values between 4459-4462. Playing this second theory out, median historical models have Minor wave 1 inside of Intermediate wave C at 1 hour top at 4390.29, wave 2 down in 2 hours at 4349.60, wave 3 at 3 hours long high at 4423.27, wave 4 down to 4382.76 in an hour and final wave 5 to 4456.04 in 2 hours. Actual wave reversal points are: Some of our historical levels to consider pointed to a top around 4415-4416 to include. Some of our possible durations were at 7 trading hours as well which would have concluded with Friday’s close where the market peaked at 4418.03. Many models are hinting at the market top being in. After Friday’s market close, Moody’s downgraded the US Credit Rating. This could see declines on Monday. While I think theory two is possible, theory three cannot be discounted. We will see how trading begins on Monday and Theories 1 and 3 both should begin with declines on Monday, and it could take a week to actually know which one is unfolding. Once Primary wave 2 is over, I am initially projecting a near thousand-point loss in the S&P 500 index by May 2024. The cause is unknown, I have been looking at China invading Taiwan for over a year. I figure this could cripple the semiconductor industry which controls much of the things we use throughout the world whether a conflict destroys the manufacturing ability or hands monopolistic control to the Chinese, the outcome will likely be devasting in the short-term. Nearly everything in the world relies on a chip or component moving through Taiwan, as the world’s eggs are basically in one basket. METHODOLOGY As a data scientist, I operate a modified wave theory loosely composed of rules and principles from Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. I develop theories based on suspected wave locations in time and lay out hypotheses to test. Once the movement occurs, I determine which path played out and repeat the process for the next movement.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
2
This week’s top will depend on….The Minor wave 4 end point will determine if Minor wave 5 (and Intermediate wave A) ends this week. This corrective wave has been tremendous, but possibly too fast. Minor wave 3 thus far has already broken above the preliminary estimates for the end of Intermediate wave A. The initial Intermediate wave A locations were based on the idea Primary wave 2 would last 278 hours and gain a total of 307 points from the low of 4103 as outlined in this idea: The movement thus far about the initial Intermediate wave A endpoint indicates the final market top is now above 4416 as opposed to around 4385. Intermediate wave A is also on pace to finish this week which is a week early. This earlier finish could point to the final market top occurring in early- to mid-December instead of the final week. Minor wave 4 does not appear to have occurred last week. The hourly chart continued to achieve wave 3 signals until the final hour of trading on Friday (visible in the EW_3_V2 indicator at the bottom of the chart when the green bars stopped painting a light blue background). This appears to indicate the final 30 minutes on Friday began Minor wave 4 downward. This analysis will project Minor wave 4’s movement based on completed waves to this point. The new derivative model indicates likely movement zones based on historical data. The small green box is based on median move and duration data, while the yellow box contains the first through third of historical quartile data. The white box should contain the overall end point as it is comprised of all common historical movement. The percentage levels to the right are based on another model-type of relational wave data. The most specific quartile data are the pink levels with the top one at 38.01% being the first quartile, middle one of 47.67% as the median and the 72.04% level is the third quartile. The historical maximum wave 4 retracement is the red level at 84.72% and most likely will not come into play for the pending wave 4 down. The next slightly broader dataset are the light blue levels and the yellow levels are the broadest dataset used. Based on these models Monday should be somewhat of a downward moving day. I would speculate the low and end to Minor wave 4 occurs on Monday, but there is a chance it happens early Tuesday as well. Once Minor wave 4 is completed, Minor wave 5 should take the market up. A general Elliott wave principle is use nearly all of the time is the length of a third wave cannot be shorter than waves 1 and 5. Right now Minor wave 1 was 16 hours and wave 2 was only 14. This would indicate Minor wave 5 must be 14 hours or less. This means the market top for this week should occur prior to the close on Wednesday and then the market will begin Intermediate wave B’s downward movement for the next week and change. In the event Minor wave 3 did not end on Friday, then the market will likely achieve another high greater than 4373.62 within the first hour or two on Monday and then begin Minor wave 4’s downward movement. A new high after the first hour of trading makes Minor wave 3 equal to or longer than Minor wave 1’s movement and no longer restricts the length of Minor wave 5. Based on the accelerated pace and high achieved in Minor wave 3, Minor wave 5’s top this week likely wont go above 4420, but that will be determined better once Minor wave 4 has completed. Although a new high should occur this week, it does not appear this week will continue the red hot movement from last week. METHODOLOGY: I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. Derivative models take the annotated waves from the above methodology and compare specific ratioed-relationships to predict future movement based off of smallest standard deviations in processed models. ***Currently in beta testing to determine efficacy***
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Market Top Soon, Bottom Next and Santa RallyTarget boxes are based on derivative analysis of historical waves performance. This will be the first use and test of the new analytical toolset. According to the tool, Intermediate wave 4 does not have much room for the top, looks like ceiling is 4402, which is less than originally expected. Next reversal point will be a low around 4180 which is much higher than originally expected. The timeframe for this low is also pretty quick as Intermediate wave 5 is only expected to last 34-54 trading hours, when Intermediate wave 1 was 112, and Intermediate wave 3 was in the 150s. Once the bottom is in, it will end Primary wave 1 meaning a corrective wave upward will occur over the following weeks which should take the market up through mid- to late-November. 2023 could end on a positive note, however it is masking the damage Primary wave 3 down will do through the first to second quarter of 2024.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
3
If its this path tomorrow will see a new...Right now, Intermediate 2 and therefore the Minor wave C track seem plausible. This is what tomorrow and possibly Wednesday could look like. Intermediate wave 2 was initially projected by secondary models to come in at 32 hours which is half the length of Intermediate wave 1. Minor wave C is projected to last between 16-24 hours which is the size of the green box, however, most models agree on 17 hours. The levels for Minor wave C are on the left. The levels for Minute wave 3 are in the center and the likely starting position for tomorrow and the Intermediate wave 2 levels remain to the right. Minute wave 3 could see a gap up at the open toward 4510, a slight retracement for Minute wave 4 (maybe back to 4499) and then the final rise for Minute wave 5 will likely occur between 4528 – 4544 tomorrow or early Wednesday ending in the green box. If this plays out, I will begin the projections for Intermediate wave 3 down.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
2
Recalculated path to market bottomHere is a recalculated path to possible market bottom IF the current market top is in. Key Takeaways: Not as shallow or long as initial projections For now the bottom could be around August-September 2024 and no longer at the end of 2024 or first quarter of 2025 as initially projected. The maximum bottom based on historical data is 2850 and not likely. At best the bottom could be around 2900. I will continue to readjust targets and timelines as each wave downward is completed. There is a slight chance we are in wave 4 (downward) of the final wave 5 up, however, a wave 3 indicator is yet to occur and is beyond late on the hourly chart. It occurred properly on the daily chart when the final macro wave 3 (Intermediate wave 3) topped on June 16. A drop below 4328 should confirm the market has topped. A move above the current top of 4527 would mean the top is not in yet. The market will likely move down this week whether just entering Minor wave 4 of Intermediate wave 5 of Primary wave C in Cycle wave B up or in Primary wave 1 of Cycle wave C down The market should begin a major economic boom once the bottom is in next autumn. The bottom will end corrective wave--Supercycle wave 2, and begin Supercycle wave 3 which should be a major uptrend for 16-20 years minimum.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
New top this week, new bottom next weekMinor wave 4 should now be over leaving Minor wave 5 and the end of Intermediate wave 1 to occur by midweek. All a strong majority of models have the top at 2-3 days which equates to a top on Tuesday or Wednesday this week. Wednesday morning is the CPI report which could be the catalyst for the next short-term market drop. The report is premarket and therefore Minor wave 5 tops before the close on Tuesday. The most specific models point to a top around 4172, although the dataset does not contain enough points of reference to ensure a strong certainty. The next set of data points to a high between 4145-4159. While the broad set of data points to a high between 4169-4229. At the very least the index should drive above Minor wave 3 which topped at 4133.13. A top around 4150 is fair and achievable over the next two days. A move above 4190 is less likely. After Intermediate wave 1 concludes, Intermediate wave 2 should push the market down for about a week, but likely less than 2 full weeks (10 trading days). If wave 1 finishes on Tuesday with a top at 4160, Intermediate wave 1 would have lasted 20 trading days and gained 351.14 points from top to bottom. The following is a projection of Intermediate wave 2 based on the estimates for the end of Intermediate wave 1. Based on historical waves ending in 2BC2, Intermediate wave 2 could last 4 or 10 days with a bottom between 3947-4042. Based on waves ending in BC2, wave 2 could last 4, 6, 10, or 11 days with a bottom 3886-3953. Lastly the broader dataset based on waves ending in C2 indicate a duration of 4-7 or 10 days with a bottom between 3852-4002. For now, I will project the bottom around 3950 over 6 trading days which would be April 19. This would mean the index gives up a little over 200 points over a week of trading. This would require an average drop of 35 points per day which this market is easily capable of completing. The day of the CPI report would likely see more than this while other days could see less or slight gains. I will continue to monitor and provide new estimates as the waves complete.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler